CAPIS Morning Note – 06/01/23: Debt Ceiling Bill Passes House, Onto Senate and Then President Biden. Stocks Move Up Modestly.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 4179.83 lower by -0.61% from Tuesday at 4205.52 basically unchanged. The overnight high of 4203.50 was hit at 6:35 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4182.50 at 9:55 a.m. EDT, a range of ~22 points high to low which is a mid-vol night.  At 7:15 a.m….

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 4179.83 lower by -0.61% from Tuesday at 4205.52 basically unchanged. The overnight high of 4203.50 was hit at 6:35 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4182.50 at 9:55 a.m. EDT, a range of ~22 points high to low which is a mid-vol night.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the current price was 4200.75 which is 0.24% and +10.25 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is 21.30 from 20.90. The average for May was 21.63.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: CHWY +0.24, PVH +0.20, NTAP +0.19, JWN +0.17, VEEV +0.12, OKTA +0.10, CRM +0.08, CRWD +0.06, PHR +0.05, AI +0.04, PSTG +0.04, NCNO +0.02, DSGX +0.01 of note
  • Flat: CRDO of note.
  • Misses: VSCO (0.26) of note.

June Seasonality:

We highlight June seasonality from Erlanger Chartroom. The ability to be aware of positive or negative seasonality in the near future is key to the success of any investor.  Video Information: Using Seasonality to Pick Stocks – Part 1 and Part 2

    • If small cap is going to come out of its shell, now would be a good time.  IWM has a small quick seasonal burst as noted with the bright green zone from now to early June.  Other indexes generally have seasonal headwinds in June.
    • TLT has some nice seasonality (optimized for 8yrs but with a 0.48 correlation so far in 2023) through the summer months.
    • Sector Observations:  XLV still has some seasonal strength but needs to get going here!  XLRE is a period where it normally would shine, but recession might blast seasonal tendencies out of the park.

 

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Insight Acquisition Corp. (INAQ) Receives NASDAQ Notification of Noncompliance with Listing Rule.
    • Redwoods Acquisition Corp. (RWOD) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Listing Delinquency Letter and Nasdaq Listing Compliance Determination Letter.
    • Sagaliam Acquisition Corp (SAGA) confirms funding and extension of deadline to complete business combination.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • HOOK: Announces Pricing of $50.0 Million Public Offering of Common Stock and Non-Voting Convertible Preferred Stock.
    • LCID: 173 Million shares offering Re-offer Range: $6.98 – $7.5.
    • OCS: Announces Pricing of $40.25 Million Public Offering of Ordinary Shares.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • LXRX: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Citi, Jefferies and Piper bookmanager)
    • NBY: Filed Form S-1.. 7,863,570 Shares of Common Stock
    • NIR: Filed Form S-1.. 332,336 Shares Of Common Stock Up To 30,978,263 Shares Of Common Stock Underlying Convertible Debentures.
    • VNRX: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock. (Freedom bookmanager)
  • Direct Offering:
    • EFTR: Announces Closing of $7.5 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
    • PRSO: Announces $4.0 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • KRP: Files for 5,926,520 common unit offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • LCID: Announces Public Offering of Common Stock and Corresponding Investment by an Affiliate of PIF for Aggregate Expected Gross Proceeds of Approximately $3.0 Billion.
    • LYRA: Announces Closing of $50.0 Million Private Placement.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AGI: Files for $500 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • TAK: Withdraws the Shelf Registration Statement regarding the issuance of new shares.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • HASI: Upsizes revolving credit facility to $840 million.
    • TBIO: Secures Financing of $28.0 Million.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: CHWY +13%, JWN +7%, VEEV +7%, PSTG +6%, NTAP +5% of note.
    • Trading Down: AI -18%, OKTA -15%, LXRX -14%, VSCO -12%, NCNO -11%, CRWD -11%, LCID -7%, CRM -6%, PVH -5% of note.
  • News After The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: AI, JWN, CRM, CRWD, OKTA, CHWY, PSTG (CNBC)
    • Lucid (LCID) Said To Be Raising About $3 Billion Including From Saudis. (Bloomberg)
    • C3.ai (AI) Stock Falls After Earnings Outlook Fails to Justify the Hype. (Barrons)
    • CrowdStrike (CRWD) shares tumble as revenue shows signs of slowing. (CNBC)
    • ZipRecruiter (ZIP) to cut 20% of staff, CEO to get 30% salary cut. (MarketWatch)
    • Nordstrom (JWN) tops Wall Street’s first-quarter sales expectations, even as shoppers spend less. (CNBC)
    • Walmart (WMT) raising wages, investing in careers for more than 7,000 opticians and pharmacists.
    • Ford (F) Recalls 2015-2019 Lincoln MKC on Potential Fire Concern. (Bloomberg)
    • Investor Home Purchases Fell a Record 49% Year Over Year in the First Quarter. (RedFin)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Achari Ventures Holdings Corp. I (AVHI) Announces Receipt of NASDAQ Continued Listing Standard Notice.
    • Daseke (DSKE) appointed Scott Hoppe as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer.
    • Fresh Vine Wine, Inc. (VINE) Appoints Hitesh Dheri Chief Financial Officer.
    • Infobird Co., Ltd (IFBD) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • MSA Safety (MSA) names Steve Blanco as President and COO.
    • Novan (NOVN) Focuses Strategic Direction and Announces Restructuring.
    • Solid Power (SLDP) announces that John Van Scoter has been appointed President and CEO.
    • TechPrecision Corporation (TPCS) Announces CFO Retirement and Appointment of Successor.
    • TELUS International (TIXT) appointed Jose-Luis Garcia as the company’s Chief Operating Officer.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Altair Engineering (ALTR) expands share buyback authorization from $50 million to $75 million.
    • NetApp (NTAP) announces new share repurchase authorization of an additional $1 billion.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • ACOR 1-for-20 Reverse Split.
    • PBLA, TRKA, VSTM trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • MCD Goes ex div tomorrow for $1.52.
    • SWK Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.80.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +8, Dow Jones +8,  NASDAQ +24, and Russell 2000 +3. (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia higher ex the Kospi and Europe is higher. VIX Futures are at 18.60 from 19.05 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher from yesterday. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.662% from 3.65% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $26,885 from $27,086  yesterday, lower by -0.74%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Industrials, Finance, Basic Materials, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Major stock indexes fell Wednesday as economic concerns and fears of a Federal Reserve rate increase remained on investors’ minds.  The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite Index both retreated 0.6%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 0.4% lower.  U.S. Labor Department data showed an increase in job openings in April, reversing three months of declines and renewing investor concerns that the Fed isn’t finished lifting interest rates.  Traders in interest rate futures have in recent days swung between pricing in a pause from the Fed or an additional rate hike at its coming June meeting.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: 

  • Friday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BILI +0.31, M +0.11, SPTN +0.05, CAL +0.03, HRL +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: CONN (0.19), DG (0.04) of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: OKTA, CRM, PSTG, VEEV, CRDO, CRWD, CHWY of note.
  • Negative Guidance: DOW, VSCO, NCNO, CAL, DG, M of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: CHWY +18%, VEEV +9%, JWN +7%, MSA +5%, PSTG +5%, NTAP +5%, OB +5%, CLLS +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: AI -21%, OKTA -20%, LXRX -15%, VSCO -14%, CRWD -10%, LCID -10%, NCNO -7%, CONN -6%, CRM -5%, CRON -5% of note.

Insider Action: NFE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  LNW sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg) 
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Debt Limit Deal Passes The House, Easing US Default Concerns. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: Hedge Funds Are Deploying ChatGPT to Handle All The Grunt Work. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Climb On Debt Deal, Softer Inflation Data: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • OPEC+ excludes some reporters from WSJ, Reuters and Bloomberg. Yet invites a couple that are non-energy reporters. (CNBC)
  • Senate aims for quick passage of the debt bill. (Yahoo Finance)
  • Fed signal for rate pause, take pressure off hot jobs report. (Bloomberg)
  • Macy’s (M) falls after full-year outlook cut, weak sales but did beat on earnings. (CNBC)
  • UAW lays out lofty demands ahead of critical talks with Detroit automakers. (CNBC)
  • Crowdstrike (CRWD) shares fall as revenues slow. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes down to 60% from 71%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President delivers the commencement address at the United States Air Force Academy, 11:40 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs Colorado Springs, Colorado en route to Joint Base Andrews, 4:20 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to the White House, 7:40 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives at the White House, 7:50 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Challenger Job Cuts 7:30 a.m. EDT
    • Layoffs Jump In May On Tech, Retail, Auto; Year-To-Date Hiring Lowest Since 2016 — Challenger Gray
    • U.S Challenger Job Cuts (May) Actual: 80.089k Vs 66.995k Previous
    • US Challenger Job Cut (Y/Y) May: 286.7% (prev 175.9%)
  • ADP Employment Report 8:15 a.m. EDT
  • May ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 160,000 from 296,000.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Productivity and Costs 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • PMI Mfg Final 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • May ISM Manufacturing Index are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to remain at 47.10.
  • April Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT  and is expected to come in at 0.2% from 0.3%.
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT
  • EIA petroleum Report 11:00 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker 1:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Reunion Neuroscience (REUN) Announces US$13.1 Million Take-Private Transaction with MPM BioImpact.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: