CAPIS Morning Note – 06/01/22: Stocks Mixed Overnight But Now Positive, Mortgage Demand Lowest Since 2018.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 4132.15 (lower by -0.63%) from Friday at 4158.24 (higher by 2.47%). Futures have traded mixed overnight. The overnight high of 4157 was hit at 9:20 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4125 at 4:20 a.m. EDT, a range of 32 points high to low which is…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 4132.15 (lower by -0.63%) from Friday at 4158.24 (higher by 2.47%). Futures have traded mixed overnight. The overnight high of 4157 was hit at 9:20 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4125 at 4:20 a.m. EDT, a range of 32 points high to low which is a lower range of late with 45 the average. At 7:15 a.m. EDT the current price is 4140 which is 0.20% and 8 points.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: VSCO +0.27, AMBA +0.07, CAE +0.06, SPWH +0.05, CRM +0.04, HPQ +0.03.
  • Flat: APPS.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Gesher I Acquisition Corp. (GIAC) agrees to combine with Freightos.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BOXD: Filed Form S-1.. 15,000,000 Common Stock.
    • CNCE: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. 10,000,000 shares.. Jefferies and Truist bookmanagers.
    • TAK: withdraws the Shelf Registration Statement regarding the issuance of new shares filed on June 29, 2021, it will file a Shelf Registration Statement in Japan regarding the issuance of new shares or disposition of treasury shares.
    • TUYA: Filed Form F-3ASR.. Stock Shelf.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • LSEA: agrees to repurchase $30 million in common stock from its controlling stockholder.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • PNR: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • SUNW: Filed Form S-3.. $75,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • CNMD: announces private offering of $600 million aggregate principal amount of convertible senior notes due 2027.
    • DAR: Announces Pricing of Private Offering of $750 Million of Unsecured Senior Notes due 2030.
    • KNTK: Announces $1.0 Billion Sustainability-Linked Senior Notes Offering.
    • SBH: Completes Full Repayment of its $300 Million 8.75% Senior Secured Notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: CRM +7%, VSCO +7%, LPI 4%.
    • Trading Down: CNCE -17%, CNMD -9%, BARK -7%, APPS -5%, AMBA -5%, CHPT -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CRM, AMBA, HPQ, VSCO  (CNBC)
    • Technology companies in May let employees go at the highest rate in two years, as rising interest rates and a stock market selloff squeeze startups and Big Tech firms alike.  (NY Post Busineess)
    • Federal Aviation Administration Rejects Boeing’s (BA) Five-Year Request for Self-Regulatory Authority, Sources Say. (WSJ)
    • Russian/Ukraine News
      • OPEC Weighs Suspending Russia From Oil-Production Deal. (WSJ)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) named Donald Allan, Jr., currently President and Chief Financial Officer, the next Chief Executive Officer.
    • CNX: Announces Executive Leadership Changes.
    • Flowers Foods (FLO) COO Bradley Alexander will retire, effective December 31, 2022; will be succeeded by current Chief Transformation Officer Heeth Varnedoe.
    • Intellicheck (IDN) Receives Notice from the Nasdaq Stock Market Relating to Delinquent Filing of 10-Q for the Quarter Ended March 31, 2022.
    • Meta Platforms to replace FB ticker with META on June 9. (MarketWatch)
    • Navigator Holdings (NVGS) names Mads Peter Zacho as CEO.
    • Pactiv Evergreen (PTVE) appointed Jonathan Baksht as CFO.
    • Passage Bio (PASG) Announces Leadership Transition.
    • Redwire (RDW) Announces CFO Transition and Appointment of New Director.
    • Six Flags (SIX) Appoints Gary Mick Chief Financial Officer.
    • SQZ Biotechnologies (SQZ) Appoints Marshelle Smith Warren, M.D., as Chief Medical Officer.
    •  Sterling Construction (STRL) changes name to “Sterling Infrastructure”.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • AmerisourceBergen (ABC) authorized a new share repurchase program allowing the Company to purchase up to $1 billion of its outstanding shares of common stock.
    • Daqo New Energy (DQ) approves $120 million share repurchase program.
    • Embark Technology (EMBK) entered into a common stock purchase agreement and a registration rights agreement.
    • Laredo Petroleum (LPI) Announces $200 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Tonix Pharmaceuticals (TNXP) Announces Share Repurchase Program $12.5 million.
    • Value Lines, Inc. (VALU) announces renewal of stock repurchase program.
    • Wesco (WCC) Announces New $1 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization.
  • Stock Splits:
    • The upcoming stock split for Shopify (SHOP) is expected to take effect on June 22, 2022.
  • Dividends Announcements: None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +9, Dow Jones +135, NASDAQ +23, and Russell 2000 +2. Europe mixed and Asia mixed.  VIX Futures are at 26.35 from 27.50 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 26.19 from 25.72 yesterday. Gold, Silver  and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Oil Futures higher and Natural Gas higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.87% from 2.813% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $31,612 from $31,756 yesterday morning and is lower by -0.16% this morning. As of 8:06 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 05/31/22 Close:   

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Basic Materials, Healthcare, Utilities, Energy, Technology, Industrials, Consumer Defensive, Financials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Basic Materials of note.

Stocks did a little digesting of last weeks gain, pulling back a touch across the board.  SPX was down 0.63% to end the month of May down 0.01%….yes….0.01%.  Updated 05/31/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: HPE, NTAP, MDB, CHWY, GME, PSTG, DSGX, ESTC, PVH, SMTC, AI, CRDO of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: HRL, TTC, CIEN, CAE, SPTN, DBI, SCWX of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: CPRI +0.20, WB +0.10, CONN +0.08.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: DCI (0.05).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: DCI of note.
  • Negative Guidance: AMBA, SPWH, BARK, DAL, CPRI of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 05/31/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: VSCO +8%, CRM +8%, WB +6%, NVGS +5%, DCI +5%, CAE +4%, CONN +4%.
  • Gap Down: SPWH -22%, CNCE -15%, CNMD -9%, BARK -7%, AMBA -5%.

Insider Action: KYMR, NSIT, VFC sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  CUE sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 05/31/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: CPRI, CRM, AMBA, VSCO, HPQ  (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Federal Reserve begins to let their portfolio shrink in size this month. (Bloomberg)
  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic says he has not proposed a September pause in rate increases in the form of a put on the market. (MarketWatch)
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen admits to being wrong on the path of inflation. (Bloomberg)
  • Supreme Court blocks Texas Law that prevents social media companies from removing certain posts. (NY Times)
  • President Biden could add more Chinese companies to the economic blacklist. (Reuters)
  • White House asks Appeals Court to reverse ruling that ended mask mandate on airplanes. (Reuters)
  • Mortgage demand hits lowest level since 2018. (CNBC)
  • Apple (AAPL) to send some iPad production to Vietnam. (Nikkei)
  • Elon Musk tells Twitter (TWTR) executives to return to the office or leave company. (Bloomberg)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at European embargo of Russian  oil. Big screen is back with Top Gun: Maverick $156 million over the weekend.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 60%.  Updated 05/31/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President participates in the U.S. Coast Guard change of command ceremony where Adm. Karl L. Schultz will be relieved by Adm. Linda Fagan as the Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard, 11:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President meets virtually with administration officials and major infant formula manufacturers to discuss his Administration’s progress to accelerate infant formula production and ramp up imports of formula through Operation Fly Formula, 2:30 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 3:30 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • U.S MBA Mortgage Applications released this morning: -2.3% VS -1.2% previous, U.S MBA 30-year mortgage rate: 5.33% VS 5.46% previous
  • May ISM Manufacturing PMI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 54.90% from 55.4%.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • PMI MFG Final 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • April Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.6% from 0.1%.
  • JOLTS 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book for May is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 11:30 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard 1:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity:

  • Allegro MicroSystems (ALGM) Announces Agreement to Acquire Heyday Integrated Circuits.
  • CareMax, Inc. (CMAX) to Acquire Medicare Value-Based Care Business of Steward Health Care System.
  • Doordash (DASH) completes acquisition of Wolt.
  • Cass Information Systems (CASS) agrees to acquire TouchPoint.
  • First Horizon Corporation (FHN) Shareholders Approve Transaction with The Toronto-Dominion Bank.
  • Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET) Announces Closing of the Acquisition of Leucrotta Exploration Inc.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Securities Emerging Markets Debt & Equity Conference 2022 (06/01/22-06/03/22)
    • Bernstein 38th Annual Autonomous Strategic Decisions Conference 2022 (06/01/22-06/03/22)
    • Cowen and Company 50th Annual Technology Media and Telecom Conference 2022 (06/01/22-06/02/22)
    • Craig Hallum 19th Annual Institutional Investor Conference 2022
    • Jefferies IT Services Summit 2022
    • Loop Capital Markets Investor Conference 2022 (06/01/22-06/02/22)
    • Raymond James 48 Hours Industrials Tour 2022 (06/01/22-06/02/22)
    • RBC Canadian Housing & Mortgage Conference
    • RBC Global Consumer and Retail Conference 2022 (06/01/22-06/02/22)
    • Stifel Jaws & Paws Conference 2022
    • UBS Global Healthcare Conference 2022
    • Wells Fargo Energy Conference 2022 (06/01/22-06/03/22)
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Bank of America Securities 2022 Innovative China Conference(05/30/22-06/10/22)
        • Benchmark Healthcare House Call Virtual 1×1 Conference 2022 (05/26/22-06/02/22)
        • Credit Suisse Brazil Tech Series: Fintechs
        • Deutsche Bank dbaccess 11th Annual Global Financial Services Conference 2022 (05/30/22-06/02/22)
        • Jefferies Software Conference 2022 (05/31/22-06/02/22)
        • KeyBanc Capital Markets Industrials and Basic Materials Conference 2022 (05/31/22-06/02/22)
        • Wells Fargo West Coast MedTech Tour 2022 (05/31/22-06/03/22)
  • Company Meetings: CMCSA, GOOGL, SAFT, ULTA, WMT, WSM.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ABC, HUM, LEVI, LKQ, PCAR, SLB.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: Ecolab (ECL) ESG Webcast.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Louisiana Energy Conference 2022 (06/01/22-06/03/22)
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • American Society of Clinical Psychopharmacology (ASCP) Annual Meeting 2022 (05/31/22-06/03/22)
        • Texas Emergency Management Conference 2022 (05/31/22-06/03/22)
        • Brewers Forum & 38th EBC Congress 2022 (05/29/22-06/01/22) 
        • 3rd Annual Gene Therapy Analytical Development – Europe 2022 (05/30/22-06/01/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: