CAPIS Morning Note – 05/18/23: Walmart Beats And Guides Higher, Bringing Into Question Weak Consumer. Stocks Higher.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 4158.77 higher by 1.19% from  Tuesday at 4109.60 lower by -0.64%. The overnight high of 4183.75 was hit at 7:05 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4166 at 9:45 p.m. EDT, a range of ~17 points high to low which is a low-vol night.  At 7:15…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 4158.77 higher by 1.19% from  Tuesday at 4109.60 lower by -0.64%. The overnight high of 4183.75 was hit at 7:05 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4166 at 9:45 p.m. EDT, a range of ~17 points high to low which is a low-vol night.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the current price was 4181.50 which is 0.24% and 10 points. The 10-day average of the overnight range is 21.6o from 24.2.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: ZTO +0.25, BOOT +0.09, CPRT +0.08, STNE +0.07, SNPS +0.07, CSCO +0.03 of note
  • Flat: DLO of note.
  • Misses: VSAT (3.33), TTWO (2.37), SQM (0.38) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • CABA: prices offering of 7.25 million shares of common stock at $12.00 per share.
    • EVGO: Announces prices offering of 29,411,765 shares of common stock at $4.25 per share.
    • GTES: Announces prices secondary offering of 22.5 million shares of common stock at $11.75 per share.
    • INTA: prices offering of 6.25 million shares of common stock at $36.50 per share.
    • SEAT: Announces prices secondary offering of 16.0 mln shares of common stock at $8.00 per share.
    • GFL: Announces Upsizing and Pricing of Secondary Offering by Selling Shareholders.
    • PRLD: Announces Pricing of Public Offering.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • XPO: Announces Pricing of Refinancing Transactions.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CABA: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (TD, Evercore and Guggenheim Bookmanager)
    • EZGO: Filed Form F-3.. 7,104,350 Ordinary Shares.
    • PRLD: Launch of Proposed Public Offering $100.0 million of shares. (S Bookmanager)
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • GFL: Announces Secondary Offering of 14,084,507 Subordinate Voting Shares by Selling Shareholders.
    • PIII: Files for 139,847,114 shares common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • APLD: Files $175 million mixed shelf securities offering.
    • BXP: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • BWMN: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • CNP: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • SGHC: Files $450 million mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • CMS: Announces the Pricing Terms of its Cash Tender Offers for Certain Outstanding Debt Securities.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: TTWO +8%, DLO +8% of note.
    • Trading Down: BOOT -15%, NSTG -6%, APLD -5%, VSAT -4%, CSCO -4% of note.
  • News After The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: TTWO, CSCO, BOOT, SNPS (CNBC)
    • Cisco (CSCO) earnings beat, but the stock is falling on concerns about declining orders. (MarketWatch)
    • Take-Two (TTWO) stock soars as outlook suggests ‘Grand Theft Auto VI’ is a little more than a year away. (MarketWatch)
    • Snowflake (SNOW) in Talks to Buy Search Startup Neeva in AI Push. (TheInformation)
    • TikTok Ban Signed in Montana, Paving Way for First Amendment Legal Battle. (WSJ)
    • Schwab (SCHW) Taps Credit Markets To Raise $2.5 Billion In Debt. (WSJ)
    • Boot Barn (BOOT) stock down 10% after mixed quarter, same-store sales drop. (MarketWatch)
    • Robinhood (HOOD) says stock trading and active users fell in April. (MarketWatch)
    • Steve Cohen Is ‘Pretty Bullish’ on Markets Thanks to AI. (Bloomberg)
    • Elbit Systems (ESLT) awarded $305 million contract to supply PULS rocket artillery systems to the Royal Netherlands army.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • ACI Worldwide (ACIW) notified Ram Puppala that his employment as Chief Technology Officer of the Company will cease.
    • AGE delisting.
    • AIMD New Chief Financial Officer.
    • Big Lots (BIG) announced that, by mutual agreement, Gene Eddie Burt, Executive Vice President, Chief Supply Chain Officer, would separate from the Company .
    • Community Healthcare Trust Incorporated (CHCT) Announces Appointment of Bill Monroe as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Edgio, Inc. (EGIO) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Late Filing of Form 10-Q.
    • Everest Re (RE) to rebrand, change name to Everest Group, Ltd. and trade under new symbol “EG”.
    • FOXO: NYSE American Has Commenced Delisting Proceedings in the FOXO WS warrants of FOXO Technologies Inc.
    • Freshpet (FRPT) advances operational improvement plan through Board changes; Current Director Walt George will be named Chair to replace retiring Charles Norris.
    • Greenlane Holdings Inc. (GNLN) Announces Postponement of Annual Meeting of Stockholders.
    • Group 1 Automotive (GPI) Appoints New Chairman of the Board.
    • Light & Wonder (LNW) Receives Conditional Approval to List Equity on the Australian Securities Exchange.
    • Republic First Bancorp, Inc. (FRBK) Receives Compliance Notice and New Notice of Non-Compliance from Nasdaq.
    • Troika Media Group Inc. (TRKA) Nasdaq Delisting Notice, Nasdaq Company Appeal and Capital Structure Optimization Update.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Insight Enterprises (NSIT) approved the authorization of a new stock repurchase program to purchase up to an aggregate of $300 million of the Company’s common stock.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Evofem Biosciences (EVFM) Announces 1-for-125 Reverse Stock Split.
    • AULT trading r/s price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • ATO Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.74.
    • Chubb Limited (CB) Shareholders Approve 30th Consecutive Annual Dividend Increase dividend 3.6% to $0.86 per share. (MarketWatch)
    • Group 1 Automotive (GPI) Declares Quarterly Dividend.
    • Materion (MTRN) increases quarterly dividend 5% to $0.13 per share.
    • OVBC Announces Special Cash Dividend.
    • Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) Announces Increase in Quarterly Cash Dividend.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +8, Dow Jones +19,  NASDAQ +40, and Russell 2000 +5. (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia and Europe is higher. VIX Futures are at 19.65 from 20.35 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil lower with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.596% from 3.52% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $27,368 from $26,722 yesterday, lower by -0.03%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Financial, Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials, Energy, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners: Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Technology of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Healthcare of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.

Gains for bank shares and a positive debt-ceiling update from President Biden helped push stock indexes higher on Wednesday, even as concerns about the lingering debt ceiling standoff troubles investors.  Overall, broader indexes spent the day building gains, which grew after Biden’s late-morning remarks. The S&P 500 gained 1.2%, the Dow Jones Industrials climbed 408.63 points, or 1.2%% to finish at 33420.77 and the tech-centric Nasdaq Composite rose 1.3%. The S&P and the Dow are struggling to find their way into positive territory for May while the Nasdaq is up by about 2.2% this month.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: 

  • Friday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BABA +1.24, BEKE +1.20, EXP +0.49, CSIQ +0.46, WMS +0.26, DOLE +0.16, WMT +0.15, BBWI +0.07, GOOS +0.07, BRC +0.06, LSPD +0.03, GRAB +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: MNRO (0.24) of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: JACK, SNPS, CSCO, STNE, CSIQ, BEKE, BRC of note.
  • Negative Guidance: BB, TTWO, BOOT, WMS, LSPD, WMT, MNRO of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: DLO +16%, TTWO +12%, BBWI +6%, CARA +4%, MNMD +4%, SONY +4%, EXP +4%, DOLE +4%, ZTO +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: BOOT -14%, NSTG -7%, APLD -5%, CSCO -4%, OUST -4% of note.

Insider Action: PARA sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg) 
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Life after a debt ceiling deal could see lots of T-bill sales in Q3, which could be the equivalent of a 25 basis point hike. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: The $120 million Ghost Ship, Alfa Nero, in Antigua is Desperate to Unload. (Bloomberg)
  • Rally spreads to Europe as US Debt optimism builds: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • G-7 kicks off in Japan with China and Russia on the minds of the G-7. (CNBC)
  • Deutsche Bank pays $75 million to settle Epstein lawsuit. (Bloomberg)
  • Senator Elizabeth Warren (D -MA) wants answers from regulators on First Republic and now! (CNBC)
  • Alibaba (BABA) missed estimates but to IPO its Cloud Division. (CNBC)
  • Walmart (WMT) lifts profit and sales guidance as consumers are resilient which is the opposite of other retailers. (MarketWatch)
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) says that mid-stage trial of Rheumatoid Arthritis met its goal. (MarketWatch)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score leaps to 88% from 48%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 2:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President arrives to Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, 3:05 a.m. EDT
    • The President greets troops stationed at Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, 3:20 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs Hiroshima Heliport Landing Zone, Hiroshima, Japan en route to Rihga Royal Hotel Hiroshima, Hiroshima, Japan, 4:05 a.m. EDT
    • The President arrives to the Rihga Royal Hotel Hiroshima, Hiroshima, Japan, 4:40 a.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a bilateral meeting with Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan, 5:00 a.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • May Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to -16.0 from -31.3%.
  • Existing Home Sales 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • Leading Indicators 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • EIA nat Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Philip N. Jefferson 9:05 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 9:30 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Lorie Logan 10:00 a.m. EDT

M&A Activity: None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Top Shareholder Meetings: AMD, AQMS, BHLB, CPG, CVS, HAS, HD, MO, LII, LYB. PCG, SCHW, T, TPL, UNP, YUM
  • Fireside Chat: REPX
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AAON, ATH, CRTG, EHTH, INVZ, ITW, SYM, TCEHY, TEVA
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Tenable Holdings, Inc. (TENB) Webinar New TSA Aviation Cybersecurity Regulations Have Landed. How Do They Impact Your Airport or Airline?
  • Industry Meetings:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: