CAPIS Morning Note – 05/09/23: All Eyes On Debt Ceiling Meeting Today, CPI Tomorrow and PPI on Thursday. Stocks Lower as Nervous.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 4138.12 up 0.05% from Friday at 4136.25 up 1.86%. The overnight high of 4154.25 was hit at 4:30 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4134.75 at 5:55 a.m. EDT, a range of ~20 points high to low which is a  mid vol night.  At 7:25 a.m….

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday at 4138.12 up 0.05% from Friday at 4136.25 up 1.86%. The overnight high of 4154.25 was hit at 4:30 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4134.75 at 5:55 a.m. EDT, a range of ~20 points high to low which is a  mid vol night.  At 7:25 a.m. EDT, the current price was 4137 which is -0.38% and -15.75 points. As we move into mid-May we will use a 10-day moving average of overnight ranges.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: CRSP +0.97, DOOR +0.40, INTA +0.37, IIPR +0.32, ICUI +0.31, JELD +0.29, AEL +0.26, IPAR +0.25, SWAV +0.21, WDC +0.19, YMAB +0.16, DVN +0.14, ENTA +0.14, TSLX +0.13, PGNY +0.10, RVMD +0.10, VECO +0.10, DRQ +0.08, BWXT +0.08, PYPL +0.07, FN +0.07, MCK +0.06, UNVR +0.05, TASK +0.05, TREX +0.05, SHLS +0.04, BRBR +0.04, HI +0.03, VTR +0.03, DVA +0.03, HLIT +0.03, ACM +0.02, PRI +0.02, ROVR +0.02, MRC +0.01, GBDC +0.01, WTRG +0.01, PLTR +0.01, PAY +0.01 of note
  • Flat: HIMS +0.00, CERT +0.00, KFRC +0.00, CBT +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: PRAA (1.96), BHF (0.38), TALO (0.36), XNCR (0.36), AVTA (0.33), KMPR (0.18), ADTN (0.10), DNLI (0.10), HPP (0.07), ACAD (0.06), FGEN (0.05), HLIO (0.05), FORG (0.03), HBM (0.03), LCID (0.02), IFF (0.02), DDD (0.02), MWA (0.02), MRVI (0.01), SWKS (0.01) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Bally’s (BALY) Announces Confidential Submission Of Draft Registration Statement For Proposed Initial Public Offering Of Ownership Interests Of Bally’s Chicago To Chicago Residents.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • BALL: Announces Pricing of $1.00 Billion of Senior Notes.
    • GVA: prices $325 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
    • NOG: Pricing of an Upsized Private Offering of Senior Notes.
    • TMDX: Prices $400 Million of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2028.
    • WELL: Announces Upsized Pricing of $900 Million of Exchangeable Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • DSGR: Announces Commencement of Rights Offering
    • LCID: $7,400,017,750 Common Stock Preferred Stock Depositary Shares Debt Securities Warrants Purchase Contracts Units Offered by Lucid Group, Inc. Up to 44,350,000 Shares of Common Stock and Up to 1,161,947,946 Shares of Common Stock Up to 7,221,921 Warrants to Purchase Common Stock Offered by the Selling Securityholders.
    • WE: Filed Form S-3.. Up to 2,483,839,097 Shares of Class A Common Stock Up to 5,411,333 Warrants to Purchase Class A Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • RYI: Announces Closing of Secondary Offering of Common Stock by its Principal Shareholder and the Concurrent Stock Repurchase.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • ASNS: Closing of $3.5 Million Private Placement Priced At-the-Market under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ACLX: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • CHRD: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • EIG: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • FGH: Filed Form S-3.. $50 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • LCID: Filed Form S-3.. $7,400,017,750 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • BILI: Announces Repurchase Right Notification for 1.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2027.
    • TMUS: Agrees to Sell $3.5 Billion of Senior Notes.
    • VSH: Extension of $750 Million Credit Facility.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • GVA: Proposed Offering of $325 Million of Convertible Senior Notes due 2028.
    • W: Proposed Offering of $600 million Convertible Senior Notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: PLTR +23%, YMAB +13%, HLIT +11%, SHLS +9%, PINC +8%, DVA +7%, MCK +5%, TDW +4%, PAY +4%, SWAV +4% of note.
    • TradingDown: ENTA -20%, LCID -8%, DDD -8%, SWKS -8%,  W -8%, GVA -7%, AVTA -6%, PYPL -5%, TASK -4% of note.
  • News After The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: LCID, PLTR, PYPL, SWKS (CNBC)
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) Joins Barclays (BCS) In Bet Against Fed Rate Cuts This Year. (Bloomberg)
    • Palantir (PLTR) stock roars higher after a second straight earnings surprise. (MarketWatch)
    • Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen says that recession is not the most likely path for the US economy; urges Congress to raise debt ceiling, says she will not get into what payments to prioritize in event of debt default. (CNBC interview)
    • Western Digital (WDC) outlook worse than feared, after results top estimates. (MarketWatch)
    • US to Provide Ukraine $1.2 Billion in Long-Term Security Aid. (AP)
    • 3D Systems (DDD) will reduce headcount by approximately 6%
    • Alphabet (GOOG) To Unveil Generative AI At Wed Conference: (CNBC)
    • California Increases Its Scrutiny Of Banks With Assets Exceeding $50 Billion. (Bloomberg)
    • Diamond Offshore (DO) Announces Contract Awards of $212 Million.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Assets Under Management (April): CNS $80.9 billion (+$1 billion mom)
    • AdaptHealth (AHCO) Announces Stephen Griggs Will Step Down as CEO at the End of Second Quarter.
    • Bally’s Corporation (BALY) names Marcus Glover as CFO.
    • Boqii (BQ) Announces Board Changes.
    • Enservco Corporation (ENSV) Receives Notice of Noncompliance from NYSE American Exchange Related to Stockholders’ Equity Level.
    • Guardant Health (GH) appoints Ines Dahne-Steuber as chief operating officer.
    • GEHI Announces Receipt of NYSE Non-Compliance Letter.
    • Lixiang Education (LXEH) Received Notices of Failure to Satisfy Continued Listing Rules.
    • Oatly (OTLY) Names Jean-Christophe Flatin Chief Executive Office.
    • Perrigo (PRGO): Murray Kessler intends to retire as CEO and President.
    • Procore Technologies (PCOR) appoints SVP of Finance Howard Fu as CFO.
    • Sabre (SABR) approved David Moore’s ceasing to serve as Executive Vice President and Chief Technology Officer.
    • Sono Group (SEV) Receives Nasdaq Notification of Non-Compliance with Listing Rule.
    • Swvl (SWVL) Received Nasdaq Notification Relating to its Delayed Annual Report on Form 20-F Filing.
    • Trivago (TRVG) Introduces New Leadership Team Featuring Experienced Travel Industry Executives.
    • VLO: Valero Announces CEO Transition Plan.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Civista Bancshares, Inc. (CIVB) Announces Share Repurchase Program of $13.5 million.
    • DVN: Expands Stock-Repurchase Program by 50 Percent to $3 Billion.
    • TaskUs (TASK) Board approves $100 million increase to share buyback plan.
    • Trex (TREX) approves new share repurchase program for up to 10% of company’s common stock.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Armada Hoffler Properties (AHH) increases quarterly cash dividend 3% to $0.195 per share.
    • Clear Secure (YOU) declared special dividend of $0.20.
    • CLRO Announced Special One-time Cash Dividend Of $1.00/Share Of Common Stock.
    • Hudson Pacific Properties (HPP) Board approves 40-50% reduction in common stock dividend.
    • ON24, Inc. (ONTF) declares a special cash dividend of $1.09 per share.
    • Paramount Global (PARA) cuts dividend by 79% to $0.05.
    • WhiteHorse Finance, Inc. (WHF) Increases Quarterly Distribution to $0.37 Per Share and Introduces Quarterly Variable Supplemental Dividend Policy.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -16, Dow Jones -123,  NASDAQ -61, and Russell 2000 -6. (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia is lower ex Nikkei while Europe is lower. VIX Futures are at 21.27 from 21.15 yesterday.  Gold higher, Silver lower and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil lower with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.484% from 3.465%  yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $27,627 from $27,992 yesterday, higher by 0.74%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financial, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative SectorsReal Estate, Utilities, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare,  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Consumer Defensive, Technology, Healthcare of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners:Industrials, Healthcare of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. stocks closed mixed Monday, showing little improvement after the Federal Reserve’s senior loan officer opinion survey on bank lending practices was released mid day and showed a tightening in credit conditions in the first quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended 0.2% lower, while the S&P 500 edged up 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2%, according to preliminary data from FactSet. The Fed’s survey, released Monday afternoon, said “banks cited a less favorable or more uncertain economic outlook, reduced tolerance for risk, deterioration in collateral values, and concerns about banks’ funding costs and liquidity positions.” The survey found weaker demand for commercial and industrial loans, real estate loans, and auto and consumer loans, but demand was “basically unchanged” for credit cards.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Monday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BALY +3.51, AMCX +0.79, ATKR +0.60, BLUE +0.52, TDG +0.51, NXST +0.50, LCII +0.31, EPC +0.21, ELAN +0.16, CRBG +0.15, NVAX +0.15, EVBG +0.12, CHH +0.11, SLVM +0.11, NOVT +0.10, CRNC +0.09, APD +0.08, SRRK +0.08, WHD +0.08, BSY +0.04, HLMN +0.04, GFS +0.03, IDYA +0.03, J +0.03, CLVT +0.03, LEV +0.03, UAA +0.03, ARMK +0.03, PRGO +0.02, TPX +0.02, WRBY +0.02, STER +0.02, ALIT +0.01, IGT +0.01, SHOO +0.01, OLPX +0.01, COTY +0.01, YOU +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: RDNT of note.
  • Misses: AHCO (0.20), WMG (0.16), SEAS (0.14), ESPR (0.13), WAT (0.13), FSR (0.10), PLUG (0.10), HNST (0.08), HAIN (0.08), SQSP (0.07), SWIM (0.07), DUK (0.06), GENI (0.06), APO (0.05), EVGO (0.05), MASS (0.04), MRSN (0.04), LITE (0.03), WE (0.03), MCRB (0.03), EHTH (0.02), HSIC (0.02), OTLY (0.01), TWKS (0.01), DOCN (0.01), HR (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: CTLT , FOXA , NKLA , PAYO , SCSC , SEAT of note.



Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: CLRO +60%, PLTR +18%, YMAB +15%, SHLS +14%, PGNY +9%, PAY +8%, DVA +7%, PINC +7%, HLIT +7%, AUDC +7%, BWXT +7%, HNRG +4%, CLVT +4%, ROVR +4%, ICUI +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: ENTA -24%, SWKS -10%, DDD -9%, LCID -9%, CERT -6%, W -6%, MRVI -6%, AVTA -6%, TMCI -5%, HIMS -5%, PYPL -4%, SBSW -4% of note.

Insider Action: RGEN, ZION, VRNS sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  PAGP sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Biden, McCarthy to Meet Over Debt Drama As Markets Grow Anxious. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared StoryGoldman to Pay $218 Million to End Case on Underpaying Women. (Bloomberg)
  • Political crisis unfolds in Pakistan as former Prime Minister Imran Kahn arrested by paramilitary troops as he sought to return to power. (NYT)
  • Stocks, Oil Fall on Weak China Data: Swedish Landlord SBB Sinks on Dividend Halt: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Powell faces lowest public confidence for Fed Chairman on record, says Gallup. (Bloomberg)
  • Novavax (NVAX) cuts 25% of its workforce as it struggles in a post-Covid world. (Reuters)
  • Under Armour (UAA) expects dull annual sales, profit as demand slows. (Reuters)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score settles down to 74% from 80%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President meets with Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Leader Chuck Schumer, and Leader Mitch McConnell at the White House, 4:00 p.m. EDT


  • NFIB Small Business Index 6:00 a.m. EDT
    • US NFIB Small Business Optimism Apr: 89.0 (est 89.7; prev 90.1)
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is due out after the close for the period of April 12th through April 26th. During this period, the S&P 500 fell -0.88%.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 12:05 p.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson to speak at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

M&A Activity:

  • Amcor (AMC) announces intent to acquire Moda Systems.
  • Tempur Sealy Int’l (TPX) to acquire Mattress Firm in cash and stock deal valued at approx. $4.0 bln

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BAC Healthcare Conference (05/09/23-05/10/23)
    • Barclays Americas Select Franchise Conference (05/09/23-05/10/23)
    • Citi Energy and Climate Technology Conference (05/09/23-05/10/23)
    • Danske Bank Metals Outlook Presentation 2023
    • Gartner Supply Chain Symposium
    • Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conf (05/09/23-05/10/23)
    • Morgan Stanley Emerging Europe Conference 2023 (05/09/23-05/10/23)
    • Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference
    • Raymond James Lodging Tour
    • UBS Pan European Small and Mid-Cap CEO/CFO Conference 2023 (05/09/23-05/10/23)
      •  Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: BBBY, CMI, CYH, DHR, FSLR, IGT, MMM, PBI, PRU, SU, VLO
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ECX, EQH, KSCP, STRA, TCX
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Xponential Conferece
    • 121 Mining Investment London 2023 (05/09/23-05/10/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • AISTech Conference and Exposition (05/08/23-05/11/23)
        • Digestive Disease Week
        • Global Momentum Conference
        • Women In Business Week

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: