CAPIS Morning Note – 05/08/23: Futures Higher As This Week Is About Inflation, Debt Ceiling and More Earnings

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 4136.25 up 1.86% from Thursday at 4061.72 lower by -0.72%. The overnight high of 4158.50 was hit at 7:25 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4142.50 at 8:05 p.m. EDT, a range of ~16 points high to low which is a no-vol night.  At 7:25 a.m….

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 4136.25 up 1.86% from Thursday at 4061.72 lower by -0.72%. The overnight high of 4158.50 was hit at 7:25 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4142.50 at 8:05 p.m. EDT, a range of ~16 points high to low which is a no-vol night.  At 7:25 a.m. EDT, the current price was 4158.75 which is 0.20% and 8.50 points. As we move into mid-May we will use a 10-day moving average of overnight ranges.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses:  None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.


Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Alibaba (BABA) Logistics Division Likely To Mark Its IPO, Eyes $2B Hong Kong Listing.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Hainan Manaslu Acquisition Corp. (HMAC) Announces Additional Contribution to Trust Account to Extend Period to Consummate Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of ote.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AIHS: Filed Foprm S-1.. up to 6,136,617 shares of common stock.
    • ATNF: Filed Form S-1.. 4,448,713 Shares of Common Stock.
    • KPRX: Filed Form S-1.. File to Sell to Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering:
    • SMFL: Announces Closing of $900,000 Registered Direct Offering Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • FNF: Files for 6,754,567 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • HAYW: Announces Secondary Offering of 21,000,000 Shares of Common Stock by Selling Stockholders.
    • NNOX: Files up to 4,869,909 common stock by selling shareholder.
    • PTCT: Files for 657,462 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • BNOX: Filed Form F-3.. $180 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • MLM: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • NNVC: Filed Form S-3.. Filed $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • SKYX: Files for $200 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • UNIT: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • Apple (AAPL) Files Prospectus Supplement For Five-part Notes Offering; Size Not Disclosed. (SEC Filing).
    • ARKO: Announces the Extension of Oak Street Commitment for up to $1.5 Billion and Announces a Credit Line Increase to $800 Million and Extension of Maturity.
    • BALL: Announces Public Offering of Senior Notes.
    • NOG: Announces Proposed Aggregate $450 Million Private Offering of Senior Notes.
    • PAAS: Announces Completion of Successful Consent Solicitations with Respect to Yamana Gold Inc.’s 4.625% Senior Notes Due 2027 and 2.630% Senior Notes Due 2031.
    • TMDX: Announces Proposed Offering of $300 Million of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2028.
    • WELL: Announces Proposed Private Placement of $750 Million of Exchangeable Senior Notes.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: IMGN 145.3%, PRTA 50.1%, LXRX 47.1%, INSG 45.4%, LASR 44.7%, TGTX 36.9%, ASND 35.3%, HSC 33.9%, RUTH 32.3%, CVNA 30.0%, KNSA 29.4%, GRBK 28.8%, SHOP 28.8%, ITRI 27.6%, BAK 25.1%, OPK 24.5%, UIS 23.4%, ALLO 21.8%.
    • Trading Down: CHGG -43.5%, PACW -42.5%, CYH -42.2%, FHN -38.8%, TWOU -36.7%, HMST -35.3%, FFWM -27.3%, ATSG -26.5%, KPTI -25.0%, IEP -24.4%, TPIC -23.9%, GLT -23.2%, SSTK -23.2%, TREE -21.8%, GTE -21.6%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Amazon (AMZN) tells Information it plans to use AI to make content for advertisers. (TheInformation)
    • Here’s what the SEC will require under its strict new stock buyback disclosure rules. (CNBC)
    • Binance Faces US Probe of Possible Russian Sanctions Violations. (Bloomberg)
    • PacWest (PACW) Stock Surges 82%, Regional Banks Recover After Selloff. (WSJ)
    • Walmart (WMT) Names Longtime Executive as Chief Merchant. (WSJ)
    • Federal Reserve Chicago President Austin Goolsbee: ‘way too premature’ to expect June rate hike. (Reuters)
    • Bell/Boeing (BA) Joint Project Office awarded a $482 mln modification to a previously awarded US Navy contract.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks that Defined the Week: JPM, UBER, RIDE, MAR, BUD, PARA, AAPL (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: The 10th Straight Rate Increase (NYT)
    • NYC pension funds lose $30 Million in SVB collapse, data shows NY Post.
    • Treasury Secretary Yellen Says No Good Alternative to Congress Lifting Debt Cap. (Bloomberg)
    • Berkshire/Warren Buffet:
      • ‘Worried’ Warren Buffet compares AI to the creation of the ‘atom bomb’ (NY Post).
      • Munger thinks @elonmusk overestimates himself but he is very talented.
      • BTC Buffett: ‘Tokens’ becoming the world’s reserve currency is a joke.
      • Warren Buffett: Bank executives should be held accountable for mistakes hiding in ‘plain sight’.
      • USO: Buffett caveats that the price of oil is still incredibly important to the economic.
      • Warren Buffett: U.S. debt ceiling must be raised to avoid turmoil
    • Barron’s:
      • Positive View: ING, BBVA, LYG, AAPL, CARR of note.
      • Cautious View: PACW, ZION, WAL, CMA of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Aptorum Group (APM) Receives Nasdaq Notification of Minimum Stockholders’ Equity Deficiency.
    • Diebold Nixdorf, Incorporated (DBD) Receives Continued Listing Standard Notice from NYSE; Company Further Extends Exchange Offer with Respect to its Outstanding 8.50% Senior Notes Due 2024.
    • Enbridge (ENB) announces executive leadership changes.
    • Fortress Biotech (FBIO) Says On May 2, Nasdaq Staff Granted Co. Second 180-Calendar Day Grace Period To Regain Compliance With Minimum Bid Price Rule.
    • Mereo BioPharma (MREO) Announces Listing Transfer to Nasdaq Capital Market.
    • Nephros (NEPH) Announces CEO Retirement and Succession Plan.
    • Tejon Ranch Co. (TRC) Names New Chief Financial Officer.
    • Thornburg (TBLD) Plans Leadership Transition.
    • VEONReceives Nasdaq Notice on Delayed Filing of 2022 Annual Report.
    • Waldencast plc (WALD) Receives Notice from Nasdaq Related to Delay in Filing its Annual Report on Form 20-F.
    • Zevra Therapeutics (ZVRA) Board accepted the resignation of Richard W. Pascoe from his role as CEO
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRKB) repurchased $4.4 billion of its own stock in the quarter.
    • CNO Financial Group (CNO) Announces Additional $500 Million to Securities Repurchase Authorization. (See Dividends)
    • LSB Industries (LXU) Announces Stock Repurchase Program Authorization of up to $150 Million.
    • South Plains Financial, Inc. (SPFI) Announces Stock Repurchase Program.
    • William Penn Bancorporation (WMPN) Announces Fifth Stock Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • CNO Financial Group (CNO) Increase of Quarterly Dividend to $0.15.
    • IBM Goes ex div tomorrow for $1.66.
    • Manpower (MAN) increases semi-annual dividend by 8.1% to $1.47 per share.
    • PACW announce cut their dividend to $.01 from $.25 per share.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +7, Dow Jones +76,  NASDAQ -8, and Russell 2000 +7. (as of 7:55 a.m. EDT).  Asia is higher ex Nikkei while Europe is higher. VIX Futures are at 21.15 from 20.43 on Friday.  Gold higher, Silver lower and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.465% from  3.409% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $27,992 from $29,160  yesterday, lower by -3.36%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Financial, Technology, Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors:  None of note.
  • One Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Defensive, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare,  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Consumer Defensive, Technology, Healthcare, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Industrials, Healthcare of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. stocks closed sharply higher Friday, with all three major benchmarks snapping four straight days of losses, after strong jobs data for April, Apple Inc.’s better-than-forecast earnings report and a rebound in shares of regional banks.   The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 546.64 points, or 1.7%, to close at 33,674.38.  The S&P 500 gained 75.03 points, or 1.8%, to finish at 4,136.25.  The Nasdaq Composite jumped 269.01 points, or 2.2%, to end at 12,235.41.  For the week, the Dow fell 1.2%, the S&P 500 declined 0.8% and the Nasdaq edged up 0.1%.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  BNTX +1.35, DK +0.37, THS +0.28, HNI +0.16, ENR +0.12, KKR +0.07, ACRS +0.02, SIX +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: TSN (0.84), VTRS (0.51), BTAI (0.18), LL (0.16), FRPT (0.09), DISH (0.04) of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.


  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: THS of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: PACW +33%, BAK +26%, SPB +8% of note.
  • Gap Down: DISH -5% of note.

Insider Action: ZION, EVA, AAT, USB, COFS, CIVI sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Powell’s Bet Against Recession Looks Good – Minus Credit Crunch and DC Standoff. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: Biden Trails Trump As His Approval Rating Hit Low in ABC Poll.  (Bloomberg)
  • US Futures steady as traders assess policy path: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • PacWest (PACW) leads rally in regional banks after slashing dividend. (Bloomberg)
  • President Biden seeks to bolster U.S. airline consumer protections. (CNBC)
  • Coinbase (COIN) CEO says SEC on a “lone crusade”, dials back suggestion exchange may relocate out of U.S. (CNBC)
  • What leads this week inflation, Disney and debt ceiling. (MarketWatch)

Moving Average Update:

  • Rocket fuel!  Score jets up to 80% from 28%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on protecting consumers when there are flight delays or cancellations; THE SECRETARY OF TRANSPORTATION participates, 1:45 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President hosts a screening of “American Born Chinese” in celebration of Asian American, Native Hawaiian, and Pacific Islander Heritage Month, 7:45 p.m. EDT


  • Wholesale Inventories 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • Investor Movement Index 12:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury SpeakersNone of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Brown & Brown (BRO) announced that a subsidiary of Brown & Brown, Inc., has acquired substantially all of the assets of Brownlee Agency; terms not disclosed.
  • FCPT Announces Acquisition of a Brookshire Brothers Grocery Store for $3.0 Million.
  • Henry Schein (HSIC) announced the acquisition of Regional Health Care Group Pty Ltd, a medical products distribution company serving public- and private-sector customers in Australia and New Zealand.
  • Washington Federal, Inc. (WAFD) and Luther Burbank Corporation Announce Receipt of Shareholder Approval for Merger.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Innovative China Conference 2023 (05/08/23-05/12/23)
    • Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference (05/08/23-05/10/23)
    • Raymond James Lodging Tour
      •  Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: GOGL, IP, SBLK
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ACCD, AES, EXTR, INSM, PTN
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • AISTech Conference and Exposition (05/08/23-05/11/23)
    • ASCRS Meeting
    • Digestive Disease Week
    • Global Momentum Conference
    • Women In Business Week
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • American Society of Cataract and Refractive Surgery (05/05/23-05/08/23)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: