CAPIS Morning Note – 05/05/22: Stocks Pulling Back After Yesterday’s Move Higher Post FOMC

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 4300.17 from 4175.48 on Tuesday up 2.99%.  Futures have traded lower overnight. The overnight high of 4300.50 was hit at 1:25 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4,260 at 4:45 a.m. EDT, a range of 40 points high to low which has been a typical range…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 4300.17 from 4175.48 on Tuesday up 2.99%.  Futures have traded lower overnight. The overnight high of 4300.50 was hit at 1:25 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4,260 at 4:45 a.m. EDT, a range of 40 points high to low which has been a typical range of late with 45 the average. At 7:30 a.m. EDT the current price is 4270.75 which is -0.57% and -24.50 points.

Breaking News: British pound sinks nearly 2% against dollar, set for worst daily drop since March 2020. (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: ECPG +4.31, BKNG +2.72, QDEL +2.23, AFG +0.85, ALB +0.75, IRBT +0.69, CHK +0.66, NGVT +0.58, KLIC +0.48, MET +0.45, PXD +0.39, CCRN +0.39, AEIS +0.29, PETQ +0.25, GIL +0.25, ACLS +0.25, ICFI +0.25, MRTX +0.23, ESTE +0.23, CLR +0.22, TWLO +0.21, ET +0.21, ANSS +0.20, QRVO +0.18, LUMN +0.18, SITM +0.18, DIOD +0.18, BAND +0.17, BKH +0.16, CTVA +0.16, HST +0.15, NUVA +0.15, STAA +0.14, FTNT +0.14, GKOS +0.13, EVH +0.13, EPR +0.13, RGLD +0.12, CW +0.11, IIPR +0.11, QNST +0.11, MTG +0.11, TMST +0.11, GBT +0.10, LGND +0.10, THRY +0.10, DGII +0.09, QLYS +0.09, MMS +0.08, TTEC +0.08, ES +0.08, CPE +0.08, VMEO +0.08, GXO +0.08, CNMD +0.08, TTEK +0.08, SFM +0.07, SRI +0.07, FLEX +0.07, UDMY +0.07, UGI +0.07, FATE +0.06, SPXC +0.05, MANT +0.05, O +0.05, NARI +0.05, STOR +0.05, SDGR +0.04, PLMR +0.04, NUS +0.04, MRO +0.04, CTSH +0.04, LHCG +0.04, LSI +0.04, RYN +0.04, TWNK +0.04, NVST +0.04, IR +0.04, ATO +0.03, RCII +0.03, NMIH +0.03, RSI +0.03, PCOR +0.03, AMPL +0.03, EQC +0.03, OCDX +0.03, OTEX +0.03, WOLF +0.02, EBAY +0.02, LOPE +0.02, USER +0.02, SHO +0.02, CDAY +0.02, MNTV +0.02, PAY +0.02, ADPT +0.01, FSR +0.01, SEER +0.01, RPT +0.01, WHD +0.01, ONL +0.01, ETSY +0.01, NSA +0.01, TTMI +0.01.
  • Flat: RPD +0.00, LOCO +0.00, MGNI +0.00, UPLD +0.00.
  • Misses: PDCE (2.72), LPI (1.04), DCP (0.65), REGI (0.54), TPC (0.51), RGNX (0.49), ALL (0.37), RUN (0.30), WLL (0.30), VAPO (0.25), CF (0.18), SRPT (0.17), APA (0.17), LNC (0.16), JAZZ (0.16), TNDM (0.16), SGFY (0.13), SKLZ (0.12), KW (0.12), CYTK (0.11), ALGT (0.11), SILK (0.11), ACAD (0.10), TXG (0.07), CXW (0.07), SJI (0.07), SIGI (0.05), PING (0.05), ONEM (0.05), PACB (0.05), DOCN (0.05), MDU (0.05), PAA (0.05), SUM (0.04), NVRO (0.03), RGR (0.03), FNV (0.03), SAVE (0.02), TWO (0.02), GDDY (0.02), CDE (0.02), GFL (0.02), VICI (0.01), AEL (0.01), INSG (0.01), TRIP (0.01), FSLY (0.01), RLJ (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • DBV Technologies (DBVT) Completes ADSs Sale of an amount of $15.3 million on Nasdaq through its At-The-Market program (ATM).
    • DRMA: Filed Form S-1.. 7,547,170 Shares of Common Stock.
    • GOGO: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Up to 56,590,999 Shares Common Stock.
    • SITM: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to 800,000 Shares ofCommon Stock.
    • SQFT: Filed Form S-11.. Subscription Rights Agreement.
    • WTER: Proposed Public Offering for an Expected Raise of Approximately $5 Million.. Aegis bookmanager.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • Aspen Aerogels (ASPN) files for 6,344,585 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • Gulfport Energy (GPOR) files mixed securities shelf offering; also files for 14,326,362 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • RUN: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • SMSI: Filed Form S-3 .. $75Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up:  ALB +17%, ONEM +15%, STAA +11%, BKNG +11%, RUN +11%, AXGN +10%, NGVT +8%, NVST +8%, LPG +7%, MNTV +7%, FLMN +6%, TRIP +6%, FTNT +5%, BAND +5%, ECPG +5%, PETQ +5%, RYN +5%, GXO +5%, SGFY +5%, TWNK +4%, WHD +4%, DGII +4%, IIPR +4%, SHO +4%.
    • Trading Down:  CXW -16%, PING -12%, VMEO -11%, EMKR -10%, ETSY -10%, RPD -8%, SKLZ -8%, SFM -7%, WOLF -7%, AVID -7%, ESTE -7%, CDEV -6%, EBAY -6%, FSLY -5%, TPC -5%, EVA -5%, CTSH -5%, LPI -5%, QRVO -5%, IRBT -5%, DOCN -5%, NSA -4%, NUS -4%, VLRS -4%.
  • News Since The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: ETSY, EBAY, TWLO, BKNG, CTSH  (CNBC)
    • Elon Musk turns to old financial backers for $44B Twitter (TWTR) buyout: sources. (NYPost)
    • Secretary Blinken’s planned speech tomorrow on U.S.-China relations will be rescheduled after he tested positive for COVID.
    • Twilio’s (TWLO) stock reacts wildly after company issues cautious revenue guidance. (MarketWatch)
    • EBay (EBAY) and Etsy (ETSY) drop on weak guidance as e-commerce crunch continues. (CNBC)
    • U.S. surpasses 1 million Covid-19 deaths, according to data compiled by NBC News.
    • FMC Corporation (FMC) files patent infringement lawsuit in the U.S. against Aceto US, LLC.
    • MTB, USB, TFC, WFC, PNC increases prime rate to 4.00 percent.
    • Icahn talk about pushing McDonalds (MCD) to explore meatless options Beyond Meat (BYND).
    • Russian/Ukraine News:
      • Attacks on Mariupol steelworks intensify as Russia looks to end standoff; fate of Ukraine’s Donbas in the balance. (CNBC)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) Announces Retirement of Industry Veteran and Chief Investment Officer Jack Corrigan.
    • BrightView (BV) Announces CFO Transition Plan.
    • Eversource Energy (ES) announces that Phil Lembo is retiring as CFO.
    • Fastly (FSLY) Announces Leadership Transition and Succession Plan.
    • Markel Corp (MKL) announces planned retirement of co-CEO Richard R. Whitt III.
    • NIO JD BILI and other Chinese firms reportedly added to SEC non-compliance list and are facing delisting.
    • PetIQ (PETQ) appoints Michael Smith as President and COO.
    • Vista Outdoor (VSTO) Announces Plan to Separate its Outdoor Products and Sporting Products Segments Into Two Independent, Publicly-Traded Companies.
    • Wayfair (W) Announces CFO Transition Plan.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • ArcelorMittal (MT) announces the commencement of a second US$1 billion share buyback program for 2022.
    • Denbury (DEN) Announces $250MM Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • Federal Realty (FRT) announced today that its Board of Trustees declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $1.07 per common share.
    • GDDY  Added $250 million Share Buyback Plan.
    • MetLife (MET) Announces New $3 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • MYR Group (MYRG) authorizes $75.0 million share repurchase program.
    • QuinStreet (QNST) approves $40 million for share repurchases.
    • Pool (POOL) increases share repurchase authorization to $600 million.
    • PureTech (PRTC) Announces Share Buyback Program of up to $50 Million.
    • TopBuild (BLD) to enter into agreement to repurchase $100 million of common stock under an accelerated share repurchase program.
    • TripAdvisor (TRIP) announces that Matt Goldberg has been named its Chief Executive Officer.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Dorian LPG declares cash dividend of $2.50 per share, up $1.50.
    • Falcon Minerals (FLMN) increases Q1 dividend to $0.18 per share from $0.145 per share.
    • Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. (HST) Announces Doubling of Quarterly Dividend to $0.06 Per Share.
    • Materion (MTRN) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.005 to $0.125 per share.
    • Pool (POOL) increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.00/share from $0.80 per share.
    • Sturm, Ruger & Company, Inc. (RGR) Declares Quarterly Dividend of 68¢ Per Share.
    • UGI Corp (UGI) increases quarterly dividend $0.015 to $0.36 per share.
    • Vistra Energy (VST) increases quarterly dividend $0.007 to $0.177 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -27, Dow Jones -161, NASDAQ -114, and Russell 2000 -12.  Europe higher and Asian lower ex Shanghai.  VIX Futures are at 26.40 from 28.45 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 25.42 from 29.25 on Wednesday. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher with Natural Gas lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.939% from 2.962% yesterday. Bitcoin is at $39,538 from $38,996 yesterday morning and is lower by -0.69% this morning. As of 8:09 a.m. EDT.

Sector Action – 05/04/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: ALL but on top were Energy, Communication Services, Technology, Industrials, Basic Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

Looking as green as those spring lawns growing.  Fed moves the markets with reassurance that hikes will not be as fast a furious.  All indexes up over 2%.  Gold up.  Oil Up.  Not up?  The Dollar.  UUP ended down 0.83%.  Updated 05/04/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: VRTX, EOG, SQ, MELI, ILMN, MCK, MNST, RSG, DASH, ED, LCID, NET, MTD, AEE, LYV, VTR, WPM, FLT, BILL, HUBS, PODD, AES, NLOK, CGNX, DVA, Y, ZG, PCTY, CFLT, FND, CABO, MP, DLB of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: ENB, CI, TU, IEP, BKI, NRG, UAA, ESNT, FLR, GT, SPB, ABR, CNK, GTN, QRTEA, SSP, ROAD, PRLB, IMGN, AXL, TILE, KOP, ECOM of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: NTLA+3.07, WCC+1.39, MT+1.22, OGE+1.04, BLD+0.76, MGPI+0.73, EPAM+0.72, HII+0.54, CROX+0.50, APO+0.48, WD+0.43, IBP+0.42, TREE+0.38, OGN+0.35, CBRE+0.31, GOLF+0.28, VSTO+0.24, BDX+0.23, BGNE+0.23, LAMR+0.18, PH+0.18, BALY+0.17, KTB+0.17, PWR+0.16, WRK+0.16, SRE+0.15, KRTX+0.15, MODV+0.14, SLQT+0.14, IMOS+0.14, BERY+0.14, INGR+0.14, DDOG+0.13, DEN+0.12, ZTS+0.10, NJR+0.09, NTCT+0.08, BCE+0.08, INSM+0.07, FOCS+0.07, FRT+0.06, HBI+0.06, TRMB+0.06, BUD+0.05, DNOW+0.05, ACIW+0.05, CCJ+0.05, COP+0.05, COMM+0.04, VNT+0.04, BKI+0.03, DLX+0.03, GOGO+0.03, EVRG+0.03, AGIO+0.02, SEAS+0.02, CIM+0.02, APTV+0.02, USPH+0.02, SHC+0.02, TMX+0.02, PZZA+0.01, D+0.01, ICE+0.01, BV+0.01, APD+0.01.
  • Flat: IDA+0.00.
  • Misses: LANC(1.20), TEN(0.76), MSGS(0.68), SHOP(0.45), W(0.43), CARS(0.33), ARVN(0.29), BBIO(0.24), SWTX(0.24), CRC(0.19), FOUR(0.19), PENN(0.16), ADT(0.12), HAIN(0.12), DFIN(0.12), ZNTL(0.10), ADNT(0.09), ALE(0.08), CAH(0.07), VG(0.07), BLL(0.06), DTM(0.05), IRWD(0.05), SBH(0.04), LXP(0.01), HR(0.01), ESMT(0.01).
  • Still to Report: AMCX, ARW, AAWW, DBRG, NSIT, IDCC, K, MMP, MLCO, NFE, NKLA, PTLO, PPL, RCL, SIMO, SWI, UNIT.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: FLEX, AMPL, PCOR, QLYS, NSA, NARI, ALB, CDAY, TWNK, CNMD, AEIS, MGNI, CCRN, ATO, AXON, STOR, EVH, AFG, GFL, UGI, CCMP, VSTO, VNT, WCC, EPAM, ACIW, BV, LAMR, BLD, KTB, NJR, DDOG, ESMT, GOGO, MGPI, MMP, ARW of note.
  • Negative Guidance: CTSH, QRVO, TTEC, TWLO, FSLY, DOCN, EBAY, ETSY, SFM, RPD, QNST, RCII, VAPO, CIVI, PETQ, ANSS, ONL, NUS, CXW, IRBT, SBH, CAH, SRE, TRMB, ZTS, TREE, HBI, NTCT, D of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 05/04/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: SRPT15%, ALB15%, TXG12%, BKNG10%, AXGN9%, NGVT9%, STAA8%, NVST8%, BAND8%, RUN8%, FTNT7%, EPAM7%, LPG7%, MNTV7%, FLMN7%, UDMY6%, ONEM6%, TRIP6%, SIMO6%, DGII6%, RYN5%, TGB5%, ATHA5%, PETQ5%, PAY5%, EVH5%, GFL5%, IIPR5%, GXO5%, WHD5%, SGFY5%, ECPG5%, GBT4%, WD4%, STOR4%, ACEL4%, ARGX4%, NUVA4%, SHO4%, RSI4%.
  • Gap Down: SFM-14%, VMEO-12%, ETSY-11%, EMKR-10%, CLR-9%, WOLF-9%, MGNI-9%, VICI-9%, SBSW-9%, PING-8%, DOCN-8%, EBAY-7%, CXW-7%, AVID-7%, FSLY-7%, LPI-6%, TPC-6%, OGE-5%, EVA-5%, ASPN-5%, LOPE-5%, RPD-5%, TTMI-5%, BV-5%, PDCE-5%, QRVO-5%, SKLZ-5%, INSG-5%, DOYU-4%, UPLD-4%, ALGT-4%, NSA-4%, LGND-4%, GIL-4%, CTSH-4%, VLRS-4%, NUS-4%.

Insider Action: HCA, HMTV, BRO, WBD, OXY, VBTX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. GHL sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 05/04/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves:  TWTR SHOP SEAS W  (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia may use May 9th Victory Day to expand Putin’s War. (NYT)
  • European banks hit to the tune of $7 billion on pullout from Russia. (Bloomberg)
  • Bank of England hikes rates to 1% a 13 year high and sees 10% inflation. (CNBC)
  • Only 18% of parents with children under 5 plan to give their kids the Covid-19 vaccine. (ABC News)
  • Elon Musk secures $7.1 billion of new financing for Twitter (TWTR) purchase. (Bloomberg)
  • Investor David Wright of Sierra Funds prepares for the biggest bear market of his career. (Bloomberg)
  • Verizon (VZ) looks to price increases. (Bloomberg)
  • Meta (FB) to slow hiring. (Reuters)
  • OPEC+ to modestly increase production in June. (CNBC)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at corporate America stays quiet on Roe vs Wade. Europe works on price shields while the U.S. gets hit by shrinkflation as companies deal with inflation.

Moving Average Update:

  • Boom goes the dynamite!  Score jumps to 43% from 6%.  Updated 05/04/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 10:15 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing with Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 2:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady host a Cinco de Mayo reception with Mrs. Beatriz Gutiérrez Mueller de López Obrador, Wife of the President of Mexico, 4:15 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • US Challenger Job Cuts (Y/Y) Apr: 6.0% (prev -30.1%)
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Productivity and Costs 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • CONMED (CNMD) agrees to acquire In2Bones for cash consideration of $145 million at closing.
  • Lazydays Holdings, Inc. (LAZY) To Acquire Dave’s Claremore RV.
  • Lamar Advertising (LAMR) has acquired Burkhart Advertising Inc.
  • Seacoast (SBCF) Announces the Acquisition of Drummond Banking Company.
  • SHOP to Acquire Deliverr for $2.1 billion.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • Citi Connecting the Data Points
      • Citi’s Communications Services, Infrastructure
      • Credit Suisse Mexico Investment Ideas Conference
      • Emerald’s Groundhog Day Investment Forum 2022
      • Kempen Life Sciences Conference
      • Piper Special District Conference
      • Santander’s 22nd Annual Mexico “Cinco de Mayo” Conference 2022 (05/05/22-05/06/22)
        • Previously Announced  Conferences:
          • Credit Suisse 4th Annual eXtreme Services Conference 2022 (05/04/22-05/05/22)
          • D.A. Davidson 24th Annual Financial Institutions Conference 2022 (05/04/22-05/06/22)
          • Goldman Sachs Virtual Copper Day 2022
          • Piper Sandler Boston Biotech Bus Tour 2022 (05/04/22-05/05/22)
          • Wells Fargo Industrials Conference 2022 (05/04/22-05/05/22)
          • Alliance Global Partners A.G.P. Spring Consumer Cannabis Conference 2022
          • BMO Global Reserve & Asset Managers Conference
          • Credit Suisse Mexico Investment Ideas ConferenceGoldman Sachs 15th
          • European Small and Mid Cap Symposium 2022 (05/03/22-05/06/22)
  • Company Meetings: AA, ADM, AXL, BSX, BTU, BYD, CHRW, CNX, COF, DUK, ECL, EFX, EMN, DTE, FLR, GHC, IEA, NWL, STLD, TKR, UPS, URI, WYNN.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: GIS, GTLS, LAWS, SCI.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • Dell Technologies (DELL) World 2022 (05/02/22-05/05/22)
  • Industry Meetings:
    • None of note.
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • International Society for Cell and Gene Therapy (ISCT) Annual Meeting 2022 (05/04/22-05/07/22)
        • EXPLORE 22  (05/04/22-05/05/22)
        • Planet Microcap Showcase 2022 (05/03/22-05/05/22)
        • SMi 22nd Annual Pain Therapeutics Conference 2022 (05/03/22-05/05/22)
        • Blue Cross Blue Shield BCBS National Summit 2022 (05/02/22-05/05/22)
        • Offshore Technology Conference (OTC) 2022 (05/02/22-05/05/22)
        • Geological Society of Nevada- GSN Symposium 2022 Vision for Discovery (05/02/22-05/05/22)
        • ISPA Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: