CAPIS Morning Note – 04/05/24: Jobs Friday

Overnight Summary: The SP 500 closed Thursday lower by -1.23% at 5147.21 from Wednesday higher by 0.11% at 5211.49. The overnight high was hit at 5,214 at 6:00 a.m. while the overnight low was hit at 5191.50 at 8:40 p.m. EDT. The range overnight is 23 points as of 7:20 a.m. EDT.  Currently, the S&P…

Overnight Summary: The SP 500 closed Thursday lower by -1.23% at 5147.21 from Wednesday higher by 0.11% at 5211.49. The overnight high was hit at 5,214 at 6:00 a.m. while the overnight low was hit at 5191.50 at 8:40 p.m. EDT. The range overnight is 23 points as of 7:20 a.m. EDT.  Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +14.75 points  at 7:20 a.m. EDT.

Executive Summary: After yesterday afternoon’s puke, can Jobs Friday save the day? We will find out shortly.
  • March Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected increase by 200,000 but that is lower than last month that grew at 275,000. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.80% from 3.90%.
  • Federal Reserve Boston President Susan M. Collins 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 9:15 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 12:15 p.m. EDT
Earnings Out After The Close: 
  • Beats: CAG +0.04 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Contineum Therapeutics (Nasdaq-CTNM) prices 6.875 million share IPO at $16.00 per share, at the low end of the $16-18 expected range.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • SNX: Prices secondary public offering of common stock and concurrent share repurchase
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • GEO – Prices Senior Notes Offering and New Term Loan.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BIAF: Filed Form S-1.. 1,632,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • BPTH – Form 8K.. entered into an At The Market Offering Agreement – $2Million.
    • CCCS: Announces proposed secondary offering of 20 million shares of common stock for selling shareholders. (J.P. Morgan Bookmanager)
    • GXAI: Filed Form S-3.. 1,932,229 Shares of Common Stock.
    • SNX: Launch of Secondary Public Offering of Common Stock and Concurrent Share Repurchase – 5,309,299 shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Recommends Shareholders Reject “Mini-Tender” Offer by TRC Capital Investment Corporation.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • GEO: Enters into private exchange agreements with certain 6.50% convertible senior noteholders.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • MDIA: +58% SC 13D/A Filed 
    • GRIN: +31% Proposed Selective Capital Reduction
    • KRUS: +5% Earnings
    • GME: -3% COO leaving company 
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Dow Industrials Close With Biggest One-day Pct Drop Since March 22, 2023.
    • Nasdaq Closes With Biggest One-day Pct Fall Since March 5.
    • S&p 500 Closes With Biggest One-day Pct Drop Since Feb 13.
    • Oil Rises Further as Middle East Tensions Push Brent Above $90. (Bloomberg)
    • Fed’s Kashkari Floats Possibility of No Rate Cuts This Year. (Bloomberg)
    • BLK: A Tiny Activist Fund Is Trying to Unseat Larry Fink. (WSJ)
    • Samsung expects first-quarter profit to soar 931% as memory chip prices rebound. (CNBC)
    • GameStop (GME) trims chief operating officer in latest executive shakeup. (MarketWatch)
    • FedEx (FDX), UPS (UPS) Adding Delivery Fees In Parts Of New York, Los Angeles, Chicago.
    • Aecom Tech (ACM) and Fluor (FLR) among a consortium of companies awarded a combined $2 billion US Navy contract.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • GameStop (GME) announces departure of COO Nir Patel.
    • Olaplex (OLPX) announces that Eric Tiziani will step down as Chief Financial Officer to pursue another opportunity.
    • Semantix (STIX) Announces Voluntary Delisting from the Nasdaq Global Market.
    • Teladoc (TDOC) CEO departing company, effective immediately; CFO Mala Murthy appointed acting chief executive.
    • Vimeo (VMEO) announces appointment of Philip Moyer as Chief Executive Officer and member of the Board of Directors.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: None of note.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Nutex Health (NUTX) Announces 1-for-15 Reverse Stock Split.
    • Split stocks today RNAC 1/30 GLAD 1/2 SNPX 1/25 EDBL 1/20
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Petrobras (PBR) says no decision yet on extraordinary dividends.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +17, Dow Jones +94, NASDAQ +71, Russell +5.  (as of 7:56 a.m. EST).  Asia and Europe are lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.95 from 14.79.  Gold is higher while Silver and Copper are lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher along with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.332% from 4.361%. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $66,783 from $66,210 higher by -2.64% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: All with Technology, Communication Services, Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare, Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Financials, Industrials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Financials of note.

Major stock indexes fell sharply Thursday after Federal Reserve officials suggested interest-rate cuts might not be imminent but also due to Crude Oil hitting $90 and rumors of military action in Israel and Iran.  Investors had already been skittish this week over economic data suggesting that rate cuts might still be far off, with the S&P 500 dropping the first two days of the week.  The benchmark index pulled back again Thursday, dropping 1.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost 1.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated 1.4%, or about 530 points, falling for a fourth consecutive day. It was the first time in about a month that all three indexes fell at least 1%.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

  

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: GBX of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: ALK, LW of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: GRIN +25%, KRUS +7% of note.
  • Gap Down: IVVD -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock see Insider buying with dumb short selling.  ALTI see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: SWAV DNUT CNK ATUS OLLI PSA SMG FOXA WDC SNOW A (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  U.S. Job Growth is set to show a slower pace of hiring. (Bloomberg)
  • European stocks drop on oil, Fed rate-cut concerns: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Mohamed El-Erian says the Fed has turned into a play-by-play commentator. (CNBC)
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen kicks off China meetings. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg: Daybreak Podcast: U.S. Hiring probably slowed in mixed March data. (Podcast)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take:  Giving up China is hard even for Argentina’s Anarcho Capitalist. (Podcast)
  • NYT The Daily:  An engineering experiment to cool the earth. (Podcast)
  • Marketplace: Looks at net neutrality, Google voids millions of data records and Jon Stewart spills on working at Apple.  (Podcast)
  • Wealthion:   Raoul Pal on Bitcoin, the best-performing asset in human history. (Podcast)
  • Adam Taggart’s Thoughtful Money: Veteran Fed President Thomas Hoening warns we are headed for a crisis. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Score goes to 34% from 57%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route to Baltimore, Maryland, 12:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President receives an aerial tour of the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge with Maryland Governor Wes Moore, Commandant of the United States Coast Guard Admiral Linda Fagan, and Chief of Engineers and Commanding General of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Lieutenant General Scott Spellmon, 12:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Baltimore, Maryland, 12:50 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in an operational briefing on response and recovery efforts, 1:35 p.m. EDT
    • The President meets with federal personnel, state and local officials, and first responders, 1:55 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks reaffirming his commitment to the people of Baltimore as they rebuild the Francis Scott Key Bridge and reopen the Port of Baltimore, 2:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President meets with the loved ones of the six individuals who tragically lost their lives when the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapsed, 3:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Baltimore, Maryland en route to Wilmington, Delaware, 4:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Wilmington, Delaware, 5:15 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • March Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected increase by 200,000 but that is lower than last month that grew at 275,000. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 3.80% from 3.90%.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EDT
  • Consumer Credit 3:00 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Boston President Susan M. Collins 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 9:15 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 12:15 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News:

  • ShockWave Medical (SWAV): Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) will acquire all outstanding shares of Shockwave for $335.00 per share in cash, not much of a premium to its closing price of $319.99. (CNBC)

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: BLCO, CCL, KSCP, MRIN, NRIX, ZYME
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: IVA
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades: