CAPIS Morning Note – 04/03/24: Stocks Down Modestly, Powell to Speak At 12:10 p.m. EDT

Overnight Summary: The SP 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.72% at 5205.81 from Monday lower by -0.60% at 5243.77. The overnight high was hit at 5,263.25 at 4:45 p.m. while the overnight low was hit at 5246.50 at 2:05 a.m. EDT. The range overnight is 20 points as of 7:20 a.m. EDT.  Currently, the S&P…

Overnight Summary: The SP 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.72% at 5205.81 from Monday lower by -0.60% at 5243.77. The overnight high was hit at 5,263.25 at 4:45 p.m. while the overnight low was hit at 5246.50 at 2:05 a.m. EDT. The range overnight is 20 points as of 7:20 a.m. EDT.  Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -8 points  at 7:20 a.m. EDT.

Executive Summary: The S&P 500 has rallied over 27% from the October 27th low. Now we have some calling for a 50% Crash and others saying we are going to 6,000! See Podcasts in Rags & Mags. Such divergent views could make for a volatile quarter.
  • March ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 150,00 from 140,000.
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee 12:00 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell 12:10 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 1:10 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Adriana D. Kugler 4:30 p.m. EDT
Earnings Out After The Close: 
  • Beats: CALM +0.55 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: PLAY (0.22) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • APH: Pricing of Senior Notes Offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • GHSI: FORM S-3 – 690,100 Shares of Common Stock Underlying Previously Issued Warrants.
    • RNA: FORM S-3ASR – 24,255,624 Shares of Common Stock.
    • VCNX: FORM S-3 – 433,525 Shares of Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • MNMD: Files for 13,497,506 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • MOVE: $24 Million Private Placement.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • PVH: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • CNI: FORM F-10 – Debt Securities.
    • GEO: announces senior notes offering.
  • Tender Offer:
    • ON Semiconductor (ON) Recommends Stockholders Reject Below-Market Mini-Tender Offer by TRC Capital Investment Corporation.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • SIG: Repurchases 50% of convertible preferred shares ahead of maturity.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • MOVE: +57% Secures Strategic Investment from Tier-One Multi-Billion Dollar Medical Device Company
    • ONMD: +35% Completes Securities Purchase Agreement, Solidifying Cash Position to Accelerate Growth
    • SGHT: +25% Results of the Three-Year Prospective GEMINI Trial and the Cross-Over Phase of the SAHARA RCT at the 2024 American Society of Cataract and Refractive Surgery (ASCRS) Annual Meeting
    • CALM: +6% Earnings 
    • PLAY: +4.5% Earning
    • INTC: -3.5% Outlines Financial Framework for Foundry Business, Sets Path to Margin Expansion
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Microsoft (MSFT): Independent review board blames Microsoft for errors in last year’s China hack. (WashingtonPost)
    • Intel (INTC) shares fall after revealing $7 billion operating loss in Foundry business. (CNBC)
    • Trump Media sues its co-founders, accuses them of ‘severe mismanagement’. (CNBC)
    • FCC to vote to restore net neutrality rules, reversing Trump. (YahooFinance)
    • Vanguard votes for Disney (DIS) directors in boardroom battle, sources say. (Reuters)
    • USGS reported 7.4 earthquake 2 miles from Shoufeng Township, Hualien County, Taiwan; most powerful quake to hit the island in 25 years.
    • TSLA JPMORGAN: “.. slashing our estimates and price target for $TSLA shares after updating for 1Q24 deliveries .. shares could fall much further still should the company not be successful in quickly restoring unit volume .. the stock still strikes us as highly expensive ..” (Reit UW CQ CNBC)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Adaptive Biotechnologies (ADPT) announces that CFO Tycho Peterson will depart, succeeded by Kyle Piskel.
    • ADMA Biologics (ADMA) promotes Kaitlin Kestenberg to COO role.
    • Cambium Networks (CMBM) announces appointment of Jacob Sayer as Chief Financial Officer.
    • EOG Resources (EOG) announces last night that Lloyd Helms, Jr., EOG’s President, has made the decision to retire.
    • Innospec (IOSP) COO to retire.
    • Microchip (MCHP) appoints Rich Simoncic to COO role.
    • PrimeEnergy (PNRG) to delay 10-K filing.
    • Pulmonx (LUNG) announces appointment of Mehul Joshi as Chief Financial Officer.
    • TC Energy (TRP) names Sean O’Donnell as CFO.
    • Tevogen Bio (TVGN) to delay 10-K filing.
    • Voyager Therapeutics (VYGR) CFO to resign effective on April 12.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) increases share repurchase authorization by $100 million.
    • Fiverr (FVRR) approved a ‘distribution’ by way of repurchase (buyback) of the Company’s ordinary shares in a total amount of up to $100,000,000.
    • HF Sinclair (DINO) enters into 5,000,000 stock purchase agreement with REH company.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) to pay approx. $1.00 per share dividend.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -1, Dow Jones -1, NASDAQ  -17, Russell +3.  (as of 7:57 a.m. EST).  Asia is lower while Europe is higher ex the FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are at 15,33 from 14.07.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher this morning for a second day in a row. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas lower by -0.02%. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.367% from 4.361% up 0.06. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $65,869 from $65,402 lower by -0.33% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate, Technology, Industrials, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Financials, Industrials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, Financials of note.

The S&P 500 fell for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, weighed down by growing doubts that the Federal Reserve has fully tamed inflation. Climbing oil prices and bond yields pressured all three major U.S. stock indexes lower. The benchmark S&P 500 slid 0.7% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq lost 1%. The Dow industrials dropped about 397 points, or 1%. Benchmark Brent crude futures rose 1.7% to $88.92 a barrel, after Syria and Iran accused Israel of a missile strike on an Iranian diplomatic building in Damascus. That fanned fears of tensions in the Middle East spreading and crimping oil supply. The Bloomberg Commodity Index—boosted by oil and gold’s rise to a new record high at $2,261 per troy ounce—closed at its highest level since November. (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

  • Wednesday After the Close:

  • Thursday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: AYI +0.21 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report:  of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ADPT of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: VNDA +24%, FEAM +16%, SGHT +13%, PLAY +7%, CALM +7%, TVGN +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: INTC -5%, DJT -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock see Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Making the Biggest Moves INTC TSLA PLAY PARA CALM (CNBC)
  • Morning Briefing For Bloomberg Subscribers (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Fed Blocks Tough Global Climate Risk Rules For Wall Street Banks. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks, Treasuries hurt by fading rate cut bets: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Weekly mortgage demand remains stalled as interest rates stay stubbornly high. (CNBC)
  • Fan Duel (FLUT) says Iowa LSU was the highest betting game in the history of women’s sports. (CNBC)
  • Hilton (HLT) adds NoMad Hotel Brand based in London to expand luxury offerings. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: Big Banks quietly reign in climate ambitions. (Podcast)
  • NYT The Daily:  The Accidental Tax Cutter in Chief, Biden has cut more taxes than raised. (Podcast)
  • Marketplace:  Why there’s no Tik Tok in China. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Will the S&P 500 crash by 50%. (Podcast)
  • Adam Taggart’s Thoughtful Money: Prepare for S&P 6000 with Ed Yardeni. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Score drops to 54% from 100%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on lowering health care costs for Americans, 11:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:30 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EDT
    • U.S MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate Actual: 6.91% VS 6.93% Previous
    • U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (WOW) Actual: -0.6% VS -0.7% Previous
  • March ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 150,00 from 140,000.
  • PMI Compositge Final 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • ISM Services Index 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 9:45 a.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee 12:00 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell 12:10 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 1:10 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Adriana D. Kugler 4:30 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News:

  • Bowman Consulting Group (BWMN) enters into definitive agreement to acquire Surdex Corporation.
  • Genmab (GMAB) acquires ProfoundBio for $1.8 billion.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: AGEN, DIS, ERIC, FSV, SLB
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: LENZ, MMAT, PRIM
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades: