CAPIS Morning Note – 03/21/23: Stocks Continue Their Rebound, Fed Begins Day One of Meeting

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.89% at 3951.57 from Friday lower by -1.10% at 3916.64. The overnight high of 4014 was hit at 6:45 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3983.50 at 9:25 p.m. EDT, a range of ~31 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 (mini)…

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.89% at 3951.57 from Friday lower by -1.10% at 3916.64. The overnight high of 4014 was hit at 6:45 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3983.50 at 9:25 p.m. EDT, a range of ~31 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 (mini) was higher by 0.25 points which is +0.01%.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Zura Bio (ZURA) Limited Announces Closing of Business Combination with JATT Acquisition Corp.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • KRTX: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock $400M Common Stock. (GS, JPM, MS Bookmanager)
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • CALC: Announces Closing of Merger with Graybug Vision and Concurrent Private Placement.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • PARA: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • EE: Announces Amended and Restated $600 Million Senior Secured Credit Facility.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • CISO: Form 8K.. On March 20, 2023, Cerberus Cyber Sentinel Corporation entered into a Purchase Agreement with Hensley & Company dba Hensley Beverage Company, pursuant to which we issued and sold to the Purchaser a $5,000,000 10 Percent Unsecured Convertible Note for gross proceeds of $5,000,000.
    • FRPT: Closes $402.5 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: HLIT +7%, GRIN +4%, NNDM +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: AG -16% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) consolidating operations, potentially affecting hundreds of jobs. (MarketWatch)
    • Silvergate (SI) lays off president, director resigns after move to liquidate bank. (MarketWatch)
    • Great Lakes (GLDD) Announces Receipt of $138.8 Million in Awarded Work.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AFC Gamma, Inc. (AFCG) Announces CFO Transition.
    • Akoya Biosciences (AKYA) Announces Leadership Transition, CFO Joe Driscoll is retiring.
    • Beam Therapeutics (BEAM) appoints Gopi Shanker as Chief Scientific Officer.
    • Grindrod Shipping (GRIN) Interim CEO and CFO Stephen Griffiths to retire.
    • Nano Dimension (NNDM) CEO and Chairman Yoav Stern voted out.
    • QTT: Form 6K..  Qutoutiao Inc. Announces Nasdaq Delisting Determination.
    • Silvergate Capital Corporation (SI) Receives Non-Compliance Notice from NYSE Regarding 10-K Filing. (MarketWatch)
    • TTEC Holdings (TTEC) CFO Dustin Semach to leave.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Select Energy Services (WTTR) announces $50 Million buyback program.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • BBY Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.92.
    • CareTrust REIT (CTRE) increases its quarterly dividend by 1.8% to $0.28 per share.
    • PM Goes ex div tomorrow for $1.27.
    • VICI Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.39.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +34, Dow Jones +274,  NASDAQ +102, and Russell 2000 +26. (as of 7:53 a.m. EDT).  Asia higher ex the Nikkei and Europe higher. VIX Futures are at 24.10 from 26.35 yesterday.  Gold lower with Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.54% from 3.367% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $28,007 from $28,347 yesterday, higher by 0.53%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Basic Materials, Energy, Consumer Defensive, Industrials, Financial, Healthcare, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: None of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Basic Materials, Industrial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical of note.

U.S. stocks ended higher Monday, kicking the week off with gains led by the blue-chip gauge Dow Jones Industrial Average ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting this week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more than 350 points to close 1.2% higher, while the S&P 500 gained 0.9% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.4% but spent part of the day in the red. The Fed’s two-day policy meeting begins this morning, with many investors expecting the central bank to announce on Wednesday that it’s lifting the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, instead of 50 basis points, to a target range of 4.75% to 5% in an effort to bring down high inflation. (MarketWatch – edited by QPI)

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Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday  Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: CSIQ +0.15, HUYA +0.02, TME +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: ONON (0.04) of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ONON of note.
  • Negative Guidance: KDP, DXPE, CSIQ of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: SELB +18%, HLIT +8%, ONON +6%, GRIN +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: AG -17% of note.

Insider ActionLAZY, ENVX, SCWX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  HHC sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: US Studies Ways to Guarantee All Deposits if Banking Crisis Expands. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Same as lead story which is not a surprise. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks Extend Gains, Bonds Drop as Calm Returns: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Fund Managers’ Biggest Fear Is Now a Systemic Credit Crunch. (Bloomberg)
  • First Republic (FRC) jumps 20% leads comeback of regional banks. (CNBC)
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen says government could backstop  more deposits if necessary. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes to 60% from 42%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route to the White House Conservation in Action Summit, 1:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks at the White House Conservation in Action Summit, 1:45 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 3:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady host an Arts and Humanities Award Ceremony; The Vice President and The Second Gentleman attend, 4:30 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • February Existing Home Salesare due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to grow to 4.16 million from 4.00 million.
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Fed meeting starts today.  Concludes Wednesday with 2:00 p.m. EDT decision and 2:30 p.m. EDT press conference.

M&A Activity:

  • Accenture (ACN) to Acquire Industrial AI Company Flutura.
  • Ducommun Incorporated (DCO) Enters into Definitive Agreement to Acquire BLR Aerospace.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BAC Global Research Global Industrials Conf (03/21/23-03/23/23)
    • Berenberg UK Corporate Conference 2023 (03/21/23-03/23/23)
    • CS Brazil Oil, Gas, Infrastructure & Transport Conf
    • DA Davidson Growth Conference
    • Desjardins TMT Diversified and Consumer Conference
    • Exane 18th Basic Materials Conference 2023
    • Jefferies Insurtech Summit
    • JP Morgan Napa Valley Biotech Forum (03/21/23-03/23/23)
    • KeyBanc Life Sciences & MedTech Investor Forum (03/21/23-03/22/23)
    • Macquarie Bright Ideas Consumer Conference
    • Maxim Industrial Tech Conference
    • SVB SoCal Biopharma Bus Tour
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Bank of America Electronic Payments Symposium (03/20/23-03/21/23
        • Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference (03/20/23-03/21/23)
        • Goldman Sachs Chemical Intensity Days
        • Piper Sandler Energy Conference (03/20/23-03/23/23)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: