CAPIS Morning Note – 03/20/24: Should Be A Quiet Day Into 2:00 P.M. EDT And Then Vol To Surface on FOMC Announcement

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.56% at 5178.51 from Monday higher by 0.63% at 5149.42. The overnight high was hit at 5244.25 at 7:12 a.m. EDT while the overnight low was hit at 5233.50 at 4:55 a.m. EST. The range overnight is 11 points as of 6:35 a.m. EST. The 10-day…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.56% at 5178.51 from Monday higher by 0.63% at 5149.42. The overnight high was hit at 5244.25 at 7:12 a.m. EDT while the overnight low was hit at 5233.50 at 4:55 a.m. EST. The range overnight is 11 points as of 6:35 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 20.34 from 20.85.  The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-December. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +3.50 points at 8:05 a.m. EDT.

Executive Summary: It’s all about the Fed today. Good luck!
  • The FOMC concludes its meeting and makes its latest announcement at 2:00 p.m. EDT and then the Federal Reserve Chairman holds his latest press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT. Tone will be important to the presser.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: ZTO -0.02 of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
  • New SPACs launched/News:
  • Secondaries Priced:
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • CNHI: Pricing of CNH Industrial Capital LLC $600 million notes.
    • LSEA: Pricing of Private Offering of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AQST: Announces proposed public offering of common stock.
    • BSM: Files common unit offering.
    • BTBT: Filed Form RW.
    • CPOP: Filed Form 424B5.. 1,500,000 Class A Ordinary Shares
    • CRNX: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 8,333,334 shares Common Stock
  • Direct Offering:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • CRNX: Files for 8,333,334 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
    • NDAQ: Announce commencement of secondary offering by Borse Dubai for 26.96 mln shares of Nasdaq’s common stock.
    • TYRA: Files for 15,373,253 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • KOPN: Files $200 million mixed shelf securities offering.
    • LGVN: Filed Form S-1.. Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • AZN: Filed Form F-3ASR..  Debt Securities.
  • Tender Offer:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • ETAO: +280% Momentum Mover
    • OBLG: +66% Earnings
    • TSHA: +25% Earnings and Update
    • SHOT: +6% Wins Lawsuit Against Capybara Research and Igor Appelboom – Benzinga Retracts Defamatory Story
    • CMG: +5.5% 50-for-1 Stock Split
    • HROW: -21.5% Earnings
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Sycamore Partners Explores Bid for Apparel Maker Gildan Activewear (GIL). (Bloomberg)
    • NVDA CEO Jensen Huang he thinks Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will be reached within 5 years – Tech Crunch “If we specified AGI to be something very specific, a set of tests where a software program can do very well — or maybe 8% better than most people — I believe we will get there within 5 years” – Jensen Huang.
    • Boeing (BA) awarded $1.14 billion U.S. Navy contract modification.
    • Subway picks Pepsi (PEP) as its beverage provider starting in 2025. (MarketWatch)
    • What to expect from the Fed meeting. (Yahoo Finance)
    • Bond Traders step up short bets in front of Fed. (Bloomberg)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Amcor’s (AMCR) CEO announces intention to retire.
    • Benchmark Electronics (BHE) CFO Roop K. Lakkaraju to resign.
    • Raymond James (RJF) CFO Paul Shoukry appointed President; expected to become CEO sometime during 2025, succeeding current CEO Paul Reilly.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Altria (MO) Enters $2.4 billion accelerated share repurchase transactions in connection with closing of offering of Anheuser-Busch InBev Stock.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Chipotle (CMG) Board Of Directors Approves 50-for-1 Stock Split.
    • Longeveron (LGVN) Announces 1-for-10 Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) increases its quarterly dividend by 9.5% to $1.15 per share; 2.4% annual yield.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 , Dow Jones , NASDAQ , and Russell 2000 .  (as of 8:05 a.m. EST).  Asia is higher ex Australia and Europe is lower ex the DAX this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.90 from 14.41 yesterday morning.  Gold, Silver and Copper are lower this morning for a third consecutive day. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas lower as wellUS 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.285% from 4.314% this morning. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $63,107 from $68,029  lower by -6.11% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Utilities, Healthcare, Technology, Financial of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Financial, Healthcare of note.

The S&P 500 climbed to a new record ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision, with investors awaiting clues about how stickier-than-anticipated inflation might influence potential rate cuts this year.  U.S. Stock Markets Rise Ahead of Tomorrow’s Interest-Rate Decision  The benchmark index rose 0.6% Tuesday, with 10 of its 11 sectors closing higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose about 320 points, or 0.8%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite added 0.4%. The central bank is widely expected to hold interest rates steady when its two-day policy meeting concludes Wednesday. Investors will instead focus on its latest interest-rate and economic projections.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)


Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

  • Wednesday After the Close: CHWY, FIVE, GES, KBH, MU, SCS, WOR
  • Thursday Before the Open: ASO, ACN, BZUN, DRI, DBI, FDS, SCVL, TITN, WGO

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  PDD +5.65, SIG +0.36, GIS +0.12, OLLI +0.07,  of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: JKS -16.56, BNTX -0.40  of note.
  • Still to Report: KC of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: BNTX, SIG and OLLI of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: TSHA +27.6%, PDD +12.7%, IMUX +8.3%, CMG +6.8%, ZTO +4.8%, MBLY +4.1%, CAAP +3.2%, INTC +3.1%, SGML +2.3%, KOPN +2.1% of note.
  • Gap Down: HROW -13.1%, AQST -12.9%, JKS -8.8%, BNTX -7.6%, MITK -3.6%, NDAQ -3.3%, AMCR -2.9%, BA -2.5%, SMCI -2.3% of note.

Insider Action:  TALO and AMR see Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stocks see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Fed to Give Clues On Path of Rate Cuts. (Bloomberg)
  • Gucci owner Kerig drops -14% dragging down European luxury names. (CNBC)
  • Traders await Fed with Luxury in focus after Gucci miss: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Intel (INTC) wins almost $20 billion in chip awards for plants. (Bloomberg)
  • Crypto market sheds $400 billion after all time high as sell-off intensifies. (CNBC)
  • Apple (AAPL) CEO Tim Cook visits Shanghai as Chinese sales stall. (MarketWatch)
  • Bloomberg The Big Take: $700 million man Shohei Ohtani to transform baseball if he wants. (Podcast)
  • NYT The Daily:  Rules about buying and selling a house are about to change. (Podcast)
  • Marketplace: AI manipulation and the liar’s dividend. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Is data the new gold? (Podcast)
  • Adam Taggart Thoughtful Money:  Latest outlook from Lacy Hunt. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Score remains at 65%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • President Biden receives the Presidential Daily Briefing at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
    • President Biden tours the Intel Ocotillo Campus at 12:40 p.m. EDT.
    • President Biden announces a preliminary agreement with Intel for a major CHIPS and Science Award at 1:45 p.m. EDT.
    • President Biden leaves Phoenix at 3:25 p.m. EDT for Dallas, TX, arrives 6:25 p.m. EDT.
    • President Biden participates in campaign receptions at 7:05 p.m. EDT and 9:00 p.m. EDT.


  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EDT fell -1.6%
  • Atlanta Fed Business Inflation 10:00 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • FOMC Announcement 2:00 p.m. EDT
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference 2:30 p.m. EDT

M&A Activity and News:

  • Nordstrom’s founding family offers a new bid to take the retailer private. (Reuters)

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BAC Latin America C-Suite Conference
    • BAC APAC TMT Conference
    • BMO Biopharma Spotlight Series
    • BMO Capital Markets Inaugural
    • BMO Obesity Summit
    • Citi Biotech C-Suite Fireside Chat Series
    • Gartner Tech Growth & Innovation Conference
    • Jefferies Insurtech Summit
    • Macquarie Bright Ideas Consumer Conference
    • Siebert Williams Shank West Coast Utilities Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Bank of America Global Industrials Conference
        • KeyBanc Life Sciences & MedTech Investor Forum
        • Leerink Partners Global Biopharma Conference
        • Morgan Stanley Latin America Executive Conference.
        • Piper Sandler Energy Conference
        • Stifel Virtual CNS Days
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: FLNC, IDAI, SNPS, SNX, SOLO
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ALTR, AVGO, CPG, CX, HII, SNPS, TTOO 
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • NVDA GTC Conference
  • Industry Meetings:
    • ACCESS USA Conference
    • Game Developers Conference
    • Infrastructure Investor Global Summit
    • SEMICON China conference
    • Swiss Mining Institute
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: