CAPIS Morning Note – 03/19/24: BOJ Ends 17 Years of Negative Rates, Stocks Modestly Lower

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.63% at 5149.42 from Friday lower by -0.65% at 5117.09. The overnight high was hit at 5219.25 at 4:55 a.m. EDT while the overnight low was hit at 5201.75 at 6:00 a.m. EST. The range overnight is 17 points as of 6:35 a.m. EST. The 10-day…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 0.63% at 5149.42 from Friday lower by -0.65% at 5117.09. The overnight high was hit at 5219.25 at 4:55 a.m. EDT while the overnight low was hit at 5201.75 at 6:00 a.m. EST. The range overnight is 17 points as of 6:35 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 20.85 from 21.35.  The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-December. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -8.75 points at 6:35 a.m. EDT.

Executive Summary: Stocks are lower this morning in reaction to the Bank of Japan ending 17 years of negative interest rates. Where will they go from here remains unknown and this comes as the FOMC begins to meet today. Interesting times in which we live.
  • Housing Starts and Permits 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • 20-Yr-Bond Auction 1:00 p.m. EDT

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: STNE +0.32 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: DLO (0.05) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Reddit’s impending IPO is up to five times oversubscribed, report says. (MarketWatch)
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Andretti Acquisition Corp. (WNNR) to trade on Nasdaq under symbol “ZPTA” following previously announced combination with Zapata Computing, Inc.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • HLN: Prices secondary global offering by Pfizer (PFE) and share buyback.
    • MDGL: Prices $600 million offering.
    • SMCI: Announces the launch of a proposed underwritten registered public offering of 2,000,000 shares of its common stock.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ACXP: Filed Form S-1.. Shares of Common Stock.
    • BDRX: Filed Form F-1.. 1,283,541,200 Ordinary Shares Representing 3,208,853 American Depositary Shares.
    • MDGL: Commences $500 million public offering of its common stock; subsequent 15% buyback.
  • Direct Offering:
    • ORMP: Entered into $75 million at the market offering agreement.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • ACMR See Mixed Shelf.
    • CHNR: Filed Form F-1.. Up to 1,190,297 Common Shares underlying Warrants Offered by the Selling Shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • OTLK: Closing of Private Placement of up to $159 Million
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ACMR: Files mixed shelf securities offering; also files for class A common stock by selling shareholders.
    • BTDR: Files $750 million mixed shelf securities offering.
    • BYND: Files $250 million mixed shelf securities offering.
    • LEGN: Filed Form F-3ASR — Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • CRGY: Announces Offering of $700 Million Private Placement of Senior Notes Due 2032.
    • MSTR: Completes $603.75 Million Offering of 0.875% Convertible Senior Notes Due 2031.
  • Tender Offer:
    • PureTech (PRTC) proposes capital return of $100 million via a tender offer at 250 pence per share.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • SOUN: +9% to Offer On-Chip Voice AI with NVIDIA That Delivers In-Vehicle Generative AI Responses With No Connectivity Required
    • UAN: +8.5% SC 13D Filed by Icahn
    • DLO: -12% Earnings
    • STNE: -10% Earnings
    • BYND: -6% Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Nvidia (NVDA) Unveils Latest Chips at ‘AI Woodstock’. (WSJ)
    • Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang announces new AI chips: ‘We need bigger GPUs’. (CNBC)
    • UnitedHealth Group (UNH) paid more than $2 billion to providers following cyberattack. (CNBC)
    • Amazon (AMZN) extends partnership with NVIDIA (NVDA) to advance Gen AI.
    • Ford Motor (F):  Federal regulators probe the role of its advanced-driver assistance tech in a recent fatal crash. (WSJ)
    • BA UBS comments: “There is a great deal of uncertainty around regulator actions, MAX production rates, MAX-7 and -10 certification (amongst other items), which has made the stock difficult to OWN for many investors,” “But with shares … trading at just 11X Boeing’s $10bn FCF target, and pricing in normalized FCF slightly to significantly below that, we believe this is a good BUYING opportunity, especially on a multi-year horizon.” Boeing’s struggles YTD have created an ENTRY POINT for longer-term investors. (UBS analyst Gavin Parsons)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Arvinas (ARVN) appoints Noah Berkowitz to the role of Chief Medical Officer.
    • Bakkt (BKKT) Announces Leadership Transition.
    • Brookfield Asset Mgmt (BAM) announces management changes; appoints Hadley Peer Marshall CFO.
    • Chemours (CC) Receives NYSE Notice Regarding Delayed Form 10-K Filing.
    • dLocal Limited (DLO) appoints Mark Ortiz as CFO.
    • DraftKings (DKNG) CFO Jason Park to become Chief Transformation Officer, effective May 1, 2024; Senior VP Finance and Analytics Alan Ellingson to be elevated to CFO.
    • Kontoor Brands (KTB) appoints Tom Waldron as Chief Operating Officer.
    • LULU: Teri List Joins lululemon Board of Directors.
    • Phreesia (PHR) named Jack Callahan as the company’s new Chief Technology Officer.
    • Starbucks (SBUX) Names Michael Conway Ceo, North America.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • ExlService (EXLS) enters into an accelerated share repurchase agreement to buy back $125 million of its common stock.
    • Guaranty Bancshares (GNTY) approved a new stock repurchase program, up to 1,250,000 shares.
    • Haleon (HLN) see Capital Raises|Secondaries Priced.
    • Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) see Capital Raises|Common Stock.
    • National Cinemedia (NCMI) authorizes $100 million repurchase program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Aeva Technologies, Inc.’s (AEVA) Reverse Stock Split Becomes Effective.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Globe Life (GL) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.24 per share from $0.225 per share.
    • HUYA declares special cash dividend.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -19, Dow Jones -75, NASDAQ -104, and Russell 2000 -8.  (as of 8:05 a.m. EST).  Asia is mixed and Europe is higher ex the FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.41 from 15.10 Friday morning.  Gold, Silver and Copper are lower this morning for a second day in a row. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas higherUS 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.314% from 4.308% this morning. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $63,107 from $68,029  lower by -6.11% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive SectorsCommunication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Consumer Defensive, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative SectorsHealthcare of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Financial, Healthcare of note.

A big day for Alphabet and other tech stocks helped lift major indexes Monday, getting markets off to a strong start ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision later this week.  Alphabet shares surged 4.6% and Apple  rose 0.6% after a Bloomberg report that Google’s Gemini artificial-intelligence engine could be used in Apple’s iPhone. Nvidia shares ticked up 0.7% ahead of the company’s unveiling of its latest generation of computing chips. Tesla’s stock jumped 6.3%, though it was still down 30% for the year.The gains helped lift the S&P 500 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.8% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.2%. All three indexes had slipped last week after inflation data came in hotter than expected.  It wasn’t just tech stocks that fared well. Nine out of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 finished in the green. The Russell 2000, however, edged down, reflecting some weakness in shares of smaller companies.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note:

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: TME +0.10, CNM +0.02, CAL +0.01, HUYA of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: NCMI, CNM of note.
  • Negative Guidance: X, CAL of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2$ or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: FUSN +96%, NCMI +23%, SPIR +21%, CRNX +12%, XPEV +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: DLO -13%, BTDR -10%, STNE -8%, BYND -6%, MDGL -4% of note.

Insider Action: ACHR, FNA, VICI sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  GOGO, HLLY sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Morning Briefing for Bloomberg subscribers. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Japan Ends Era of Negative Rates With Few Clues on The Way Forward. (Bloomberg)
  • Yen drops on Bank of Japan move, U.S. Futures drop: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Hong Kong passes local security bill cementing China’s control of Hong Kong. (Bloomberg)
  • Banks in trouble over interest rate moves and commercial real estate loans. (CNBC)
  • George Lucas back Walt Disney (DIS) CEO Bob Iger in proxy fight with Nelson Peltz. (CNBC)
  • Unilever (UL) to split from its ice cream unit and Ben & Jerry’s as it cuts 7,500 jobs. (CNBC)
  • Super Micro (SMCI) to sell stock after 1,000% rally. (MarketWatch)
  • Bloomberg The Big Take: How the Top Oil Trader’s Brazen Corruption Was Caught on Tape (Podcast)
  • NYT The Daily:  Trump’s Plan to Take Away Biden’s Biggest Advantage (Podcast)
  • Marketplace: What Redditors think about the Reddit IPO (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Taiwan on the Brink: Navigating the Tensions with China | George Calhoun (Podcast)
  • Adam Taggart Thoughtful Money: Bill Fleckenstein: Bulls May Find Themselves “Up To Their Neck In Alligators” Soon (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Score improves to 65% from 48%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 8:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs the White House en route Joint Base Andrews, 8:40 a.m. EDT
    • The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route Nevada Air National Guard, Reno, Nevada, 9:00 a.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Reno, Nevada, 2:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a campaign event, 2:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Reno, Nevada en route Las Vegas, Nevada, 3:45 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Las Vegas, Nevada, 4:55 p.m. EDT
    • The President delivers remarks on lowering costs for American families, 6:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs Las Vegas, Nevada en route Phoenix, Arizona, 7:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President arrives in Phoenix, Arizona, 7:15 p.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a campaign event, 7:35 p.m. EDT


  • Housing Starts and Permits 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • 20-Yr-Bond Auction 1:00 p.m. EDT
  • Treasury Int. Capital 4:00 p.m. EDT
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note. Fed Blackout period still in effect into this week’s announcement.

M&A Activity and News:

  • Fusion Pharmaceuticals (FUSN) to be acquired by AstraZeneca (AZN) for $21.00 per share in cash at closing plus a non-transferrable contingent value right (CVR) of $3.00 per share.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Global Industrials Conference
    • Capital Research Global Euro Focus
    • Jefferies Pan-European Mid-Cap Conference
    • KeyBanc Life Sciences & MedTech Investor Forum
    • Keystone Symposia’s Cancer Immunotherapy
    • Larrain Conference
    • Leerink Partners Global Biopharma Conference
    • Stifel Virtual CNS Days
    • TD Cowen’s Fiber-to-the-Home Symposium
    • UBS Global Energy Transition Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Bank of America Electronic Payments Symposium.
        • Morgan Stanley Latin America Executive Conference.
        • Piper Sandler Energy Conference
        • Roth Investor Conference
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: COO, WMB, TORO
    • 3M (MMM): Solventum hosts inaugural Investor Day ahead of its planned spinoff from 3M of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ATEC, BOX, ENFN, EVAX, JAZZ, KDP, LINC, MMM, NVDA, POOL, REYN, RWT, TWOA
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
    • CrowdStrike (CRWD) Gov Threat Summit
    • NVDA GTC Conference
  • Industry Meetings:
    • BIO Europe Spring
    • World Agri-Tech Innovation Summit
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: