CAPIS Morning Note – 03/16/23: Stocks Lose Steam Overnight, ECB Out With Latest Decision

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -0.70% at 3891.93 from Tuesday higher by 1.65% at 3919. The overnight high of 3947.50 was hit at 9:10 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3912 at 5:55 a.m. EDT, a range of ~35 points high to low.  At 7:30 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 (mini)…

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Wednesday lower by -0.70% at 3891.93 from Tuesday higher by 1.65% at 3919. The overnight high of 3947.50 was hit at 9:10 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3912 at 5:55 a.m. EDT, a range of ~35 points high to low.  At 7:30 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 (mini) was lower by 12.75- points which is -0.32%.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: ADBE +0.12, PATH +0.08, PD +0.06, FNV +0.03, ZTO +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: FIVE of note.
  • Misses: TPC (1.95), LPSN (0.67), AMRS (0.43), PTRA (0.25), CDRE (0.07) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.


Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • ICG IPO priced @ $8.00.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • FRPT: Prices $350 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • PRLD: Disclosed last night $75 million common stock open sale agreement.
    • RBA: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Up to 7,584,481 Common Shares.
  • Direct Offering:
    • NMTR: Closing of $5 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • CANO: Files for 9,899,973 share common stock offering by selling shareholders; ALSO files for 29,483,101 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • PRM: Files for 8,460,860 share common stock offering by selling shareholders; ALSO files for 126,097,150 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ADCT: Files $300 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • COHU: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • DICE: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • NHI: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • NUVL: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • Credit Suisse (CS) to borrow up to about $54 billion from Swiss National Bank. (CNBC)
    • LUMN: Exchange Offers for Lumen Senior Notes.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: PATH +12%, CS +9%, CVI +7%, PD +7%, ADBE +4%, CERT +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: ESPR -55%, LPSN -39%, PTRA -17%, AMRS -8%, FIVE -4% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CS, ADBE, PATH, FIVE, PD  (CNBC)
    • Credit Suisse (CS) to borrow $54 billion from the Swiss National Bank. (CNBC)
    • Microsoft (MSFT)) Rations Access to AI Hardware for Internal Teams (TheInformation)
    • G-7 Opposes Lowering Russian Crude Price Cap From $60 a Barrel. (WSJ)
    • U.S. Threatens Ban if TikTok’s Chinese Owners Don’t Sell Stakes. (WSJ)
    • Adobe (ADBE) results, outlook top Street views as ‘mission critical’ software tops spending priorities. (MarketWatch)
    • Virgin Orbit (VORB) temporarily halts operations, furloughs employees as it seeks funding. (MarketWatch)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Index Changes: Exponent (EXPO) set to join S&P MidCap 400; CVR Energy (CVI) and Certara (CERT) to join S&P SmallCap 600
    • AXON Appoints New Board Members.
    • CenterPoint Energy (CNP) announces appointment of Christopher Foster as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
    • Cian PLC (CIAN): NYSE to delist the American Depositary Shares from the NYSE.
    • Enovis (ENOV) Announces Board Leadership Transition.
    • Keysight (KEYS) Announces Executive Leadership Transition.
    • L3Harris (LHX) Statement on Second Request from Federal Trade Commission regarding previously announced acquisition of Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD).
    • Light & Wonder (LNW) to Evaluate a Potential Listing on the Australian Securities Exchange.
    • Mativ (MATV) Announces Greg Weitzel as New Chief Financial Officer.
    • Maxeon Solar (MAXN) names Matt Dawson as CTO.
    • MediWound (MDWD) appoints Hani Luxenburg as CFO.
    • Ozon Holdings (OZON) notified of pending delisting.
    • PG&E (PCG) appoints Carolyn Burke as Executive VP and CFO.
    • QIWI notified of pending delisting from the Nasdaq.
    • Real Matters (AUY) Announces CFO Transition.
    • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) COO Gretchen Howard to retire. (MarketWatch)
    • SMTC CEO Mohan Maheswaran to retire, promotes Asaf Silberstein to COO.
    • Sterling Bancorp, Inc. (SBT) Enters Into Plea Agreement with DOJ; Resolves DOJ Investigation of the Company Relating to the Advantage Loan Program; Revises Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Unaudited Financial Results. (MarketWatch)
    • Yandex (YNDX) Receives Notice of Delisting from Nasdaq and Intends to Appeal.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT) increases share buyback authorization by $200 million.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Dollar General (DG) Board of Directors declared an increased quarterly cash dividend of $0.59 per share.
    • InvenTrust Properties (IVT) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.2155 per share.
    • JCI Goes ex div tomorrow for $0.36.
    • ZTO Express (ZTO) approved a special dividend of US$0.37 per ADS.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -7, Dow Jones -111,  NASDAQ +29, and Russell 2000 -10. (as of 7:57 a.m. EDT).  Asia lower and Europe higher. VIX Futures are at 25.76 from 25.80 yesterday.  Gold lower with Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.481% from 3.53 yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $25,048 from $24,528 yesterday, higher by 2.88%.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Basic Materials, Financials, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners: None of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrial, Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.

U.S. stocks ended lower Wednesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling almost 300 points, as concerns over troubled Credit Suisse Group CS, -13.94% added to worries about the banking system. The Dow closed 0.9% lower, while the S&P 500 shed 0.7% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite edged up around 0.1%, according to preliminary data from FactSet. The Swiss National Bank said Wednesday that it will provide liquidity to Credit Suisse “if necessary.” The S&P 500’s financial sector slumped 2.8% Wednesday, one of the index’s worst performing sectors along with energy and materials and industrials.   (MarketWatch – edited by QPI)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close:

  • Friday  Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BEKE +0.73, MOMO +0.54, PLCE +0.22, DBI +0.09, SIG +0.09, JBL +0.03 of note.
  • Flat: DG of note.
  • Misses: TITN (0.34), HNST (0.10), GIII (0.03) of note.
  • Still to Report: ASO, WSM of note.


  • Positive Guidance: STLD, ADBE, PATH, AMRS, BEKE of note.
  • Negative Guidance: FIVE, TPC, LPSN, PTRA, PLCE of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: PCT +19%, PATH +15%, CERT +9%, CS +7%, CVI +6%, ADBE +6%, SBT +5%, ADCT +4%, PD +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: ESPR -54%, LPSN -40%, AMRS -17%, PTRA -16%, EXPO -4%, RPD -4%, MAXN -4% of note.

Insider Action: AAT, VLY, NMFC, CROX, ENVX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  GH, HHC sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Credit Suisse Posts Record Surge Before Paring Gains. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: First Republic Bank is Exploring Options Including a Sale. (Bloomberg)
  • Stock, Futures Steady as Credit Suisse Woes Ease: Market Wrap (Bloomberg)
  • Big ECB Hike today is called into doubt by Credit Suisse. (Bloomberg)
  • China Housing Prices are stabilizing. (WSJ)
  • Credit Suisse shares higher by 20% on Swiss National Bank loan announcement. (CNBC)
  • Treasury Secretary Yellen to testify before the Senate today and in her prepared comments she says the system is fine. (NYT)
  • Investors worry of a possible Credit Suisse contagion. (CNBC)
  • Saudi National Bank says panic over Credit Suisse is unwarranted. (CNBC)
  • A recession could come sooner on a cooling of bank lending. (CNBC)
  • Exxon (XOM) to invest $2 billion in refinery expansion, largest since 2012. (MarketWatch)
  • Baidu (BIDU) drops to an eight week low as reveals ChatGPT rival. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 28.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:00 p.m. EDT


  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • March Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to -13 from -24.3.
  • February Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to 1,313,000 from 1,309,000.
  • Import and Export Prices 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Treasury Secretary Yellen is scheduled to appear before the Senate Finance Committee at 10 a.m. EDT.

M&A Activity:

  • Rapid7 (RPD) acquires Minerva Labs, a provider of ransomware prevention technology, for approximately $38 million in cash and stock.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BAC Consumer & Retail Conference
    • BAC Information & Business Services Conference
    • Citigroup Global Consumer Conference
    • Gabelli Specialty Chemicals Conference
    • Jefferies Biotech on the Bay Summit (03/16/23-03/17/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Barclays Global Healthcare Conference
        • Berenberg Thematic Software Conference
        • Citi TMT Conference 2023 (03/14/26-03/16/23)
        • Guggenheim Health Altitudes Summit (03/12/23-03/16/23)
        • JP Morgan Industrials Conference
        • Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference 2023 (03/14/26-03/16/23)
        • UBS Global Consumer and Retail Conference (03/15/23-03/16/23)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: