CAPIS Morning Note – 03/12/24: Stocks Higher Into CPI

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by -0.11% at 5117.94 from Friday lower by -0.65% at 5123.69. The overnight high was hit at 5208.75 at 4:10 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5184 at 4:05 p.m. EST. The range overnight is 24 points as of 7:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by -0.11% at 5117.94 from Friday lower by -0.65% at 5123.69. The overnight high was hit at 5208.75 at 4:10 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5184 at 4:05 p.m. EST. The range overnight is 24 points as of 7:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 23.45 from 25.25.  The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-December. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +12.50 points at 6:45 a.m EST. 

Executive Summary: It’s all about CPI. Higher CPI and we go lower for stocks. Lower CPI and we go higher for stocks. Pretty simple. Hit estimates of 0.3% and we trade flat.
  • NFIB Small Business Optimism for February is due out at 6:00 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 89.90 and this morning at 89.40, a bit weaker.
  • February CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.4% from 0.3% last month.
  • The latest Treasury Budget is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT and expected to fall to $-22.0 billion.
  • Short interest – The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is out. NYSE Short Interest rose by 1.09% and the NASDAQ Short Interest by 0.33%.

     

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: CASY +0.19, AVO +0.16, ASAN +0.06, ORCL +0.03 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: MTN (0.28), CVGW (0.18) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • ARM IPO lockup period will expire today Tuesday.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Arogo Capital Acquisition Corp. (AOGOU) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Market Value Deficiency.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • CGTX: Announces Pricing of $11.5 Million Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • EPRT: Prices offering of 9.0 million shares of common stock at $24.75 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • HUM: Prices $2.25 Billion Debt Offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CGTX: Announces proposed public offering of common stock.
    • EPRT: Announces public offering of 8 million common stock. (BAC, WFC, Truist and Mizuho bookmanager)
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • RGLS: Announces Oversubscribed $100 Million Private Placement of Equity.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ASRT: Filed Form S-3.. $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • ORIC: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • PK: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • CLRO: +115% Special One-time Cash Dividend
    • IONM: +75% Agreement to Sell Certain of its Assets to MPOWERHealth
    • HRTG: +20% Earnings
    • ORCL: +14% Earnings
    • LFMD: +7% Earnings
    • ACAD: -16% Announces Top-Line Results from Phase 3 ADVANCE-2 Trial of Pimavanserin in Negative Symptoms of Schizophrenia
    • OCUL: -8.5% Earnings
    • HSAI: -4.5% Earnings
    • CASY: -3% Earnings
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: ORCL, MTN, AAP, ASAN (CNBC)
    • Oracle (ORCL) shares soar 13% on better-than-expected quarterly earnings. (CNBC)
    • Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Strikes Settlement With Dan Loeb’s Third Point. (WSJ)
    • Acadia Pharma’s stock falls 15% after failed drug trial. (MarketWatch)
    • Vail Resorts’ (MTN) stock slips after results, guidance hurt by decline in visits, snowfall. (MarketWatch)
    • News Corp. (NWSA) and Daily Mail owner held talks regarding possible joint purchase of the Telegraph. (Bloomberg)
    • Parsons (PSN) wins position on $1 billion contract supporting DC Metro projects.
    • B of A [Subramanian]: “.. We raise our 2024 S&P 500 EPS estimate to $250 (+12% YoY; vs. $235 previously), the highest top-down forecast on the Street. .. we see a potential virtuous cycle forming from #AI investments. Semis and networking are the most obvious beneficiaries .. but increased power usage and the physical build-out of data centers will lead to more demand for electrification, utilities, commodities, etc.”  (Carl Q CNBC)
    • Assets Under Management (MofM): VCTR $164.9 billion – up 2.9%, CNS $79.6 billion – up $333 million, IVZ $1.63 trillion – up 3%, APAM $156.0 billion, VRTS $176.1 billion, AB $745 billion from $726 billion, BEN $1.62 trillion from $1.60, LAZ $248.0 billion.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • 3M (MMM) appoints William Brown as 3M Chief Executive Officer, Michael Roman as 3M Executive Chairman.
    • Copart (CPRT) announces that it has appointed Jeff Liaw as its sole Chief Executive Officer.
    • Jack Henry (JKHY) promotes Shanon McLachlan to COO.
    • New York Community (NYCB) closes over $1 billion equity investment strengthening balance sheet and liquidity position.
    • NextPlay Technologies (NXTP) Received Notice From NASDAQ for lack of annual meeting of shareholders.
    • Recruiter.com (RCRT) Announces CEO Transition.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • ADM Announces additional $2 billion in share repurchases.
    • ATRenew (RERE) reports Q4 results; announces $20 million share repurchase program.
    • Kanzhun Limited (BZ) announces fourth quarter and full year 2023 financial results; authorized $200 mln new share repurchase program.
    • Patterson Companies (PDCO) approved a new share repurchase authorization for the repurchase of up to $500 million.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Aeva Technologies, Inc. (AEVA ) Reverse Stock Split (1-5) for March 18.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • ClearOne (CLRO) Announces a Special One-time Cash Dividend.
    • MINISO Group (MNSO) approved the distribution of a special cash dividend in the amount of US$0.2900 per ADS.
    • SIGA Declares Special Cash Dividend of $0.60 Per Share.
    • Vail Resorts (MTN) increases dividend by 8%.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +12, Dow Jones -7, NASDAQ +86, and Russell 2000 +3.  (as of 7:50 a.m. EST).  Asia is mixed while Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.90 from 15.10 yesterday morning.  Gold and Silver are lower with Copper higher this morning for the second day in a row. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher along with Natural Gas. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.089% from 4.081% yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $71,838 from $71,759 lower by -0.63% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Consumer Defensive, Basic Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors:  Technology, Industrials, Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners: Utilities,, Basic Materials, Real Estate  of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Financial, Healthcare of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Financial, and Industrials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Healthcare, Financial of note.

The 2024 stock-market rally is taking a breather.  The S&P 500 fell for a second straight session Monday ahead of key inflation data that could shed light on when the Federal Reserve might start cutting interest rates.  The benchmark index edged down 0.1% but remained within 1% of its record. The Nasdaq Composite was 0.4% lower, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1%. Bond yields inched higher, with the 10-year yield hitting 4.103%.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: CYRX, SKIN
  • Wednesday Before the Open: DLTR, WSM, ARCO, TH, SHCR, WOW

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: KSS +0.39, IGT +0.04 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: IHS (1.30), ONON (0.16), ADM (0.07) of note.
  • Still to Report: SWIM, MANU of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: OPRX, ALK of note.
  • Negative Guidance: IRBT, ONON, IGT, KSS of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Will return tomorrow!

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: RERE +30%, ORCL +13%, NNBR +11%, LFMD +8%, VCTR +5%, ORIC +5%, GSM +4%, PACK +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: ACAD -17%, ONON -9%, OCUL -7%, MTN -5%, KLIC -4%, CGTX -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Morning Briefing for Bloomberg subscribers. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  U.S. CPI Won’t Inspire Fed to Cut Rates Says Bloomberg Economics. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks rise with traders braced for CPI volatility: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Surging gasoline prices add inflation risk in election year. (Bloomberg)
  • J.P. Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns recession not off the table yet. (Bloomberg)
  • Southwest (LUV) cuts capacity and rethinks 2024 financial forecast due to Boeing issues. (CNBC)
  • Consumer spending rebounded in February cites CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor. (CNBC)
  • Supply chains are at a critical juncture, here is why. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Daybreak: Futures tick up ahead of U.S. inflation data.  (Podcast)
  • NYT The Daily: Oregon voters regret decriminalizing drugs.  (Podcast)
  • Marketplace:  States and schools are learning how to manage AI in education. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: The oil apocalypse are we prepared. (Podcast)
  • Adam Taggart Thoughtful Money: Juggernaut rally prepare for a correction Lance Roberts.      (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Score drops to 71% from 77%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President departs the White House en route to the Teamsters Headquarters, 11:15 a.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a campaign meeting with Teamsters members, 12:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President departs en route to the White House, 1:15 p.m. EDT
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, 1:30 p.m. EDT
    • The President holds a bilateral meeting with President Andrzej Duda and Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland, 4:00 p.m. EDT

Economic:

  • NFIB Small Business Optimism for February is due out at 6:00 a.m. EDT
    • US NFIB Small Business Optimism Feb: 89.4 (est 90.5; prev 89.9)
  • February CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.4% from 0.3% last month.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EDT
  • 10-Yr Note Auction 1:00 p.m. EDT
  • The latest Treasury Budget is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT and expected to fall to $-22.0 billion.
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity and News:

  • Alcoa (AA) Enters into Binding Agreement to Acquire Alumina Limited.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Consumer & Retail Conference
    • Barclays Global Healthcare Conference
    • BTG – Latam Opportunity Conference
    • Citi India Conference
    • Guggenheim 5th Annual Healthy Altitudes Summit
    • Jefferies Biotech on the Bay Summit
    • Oppenheimer Healthcare MedTech & Services Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Citigroup TMT Conference
        • Deutsche Bank Media Internet & Telecom Conference
        • J.P. Morgan Industrials Conference
        • Leerink Global Biopharma Conference
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: ATEK MMS MNOV PUYI TOL XPDI
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ACIW CSCO INST ITRI KBR NVTS SIGA TRI
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Acute Kidney Injury and Continuous Renal Replacement Therapy Conf
    • iAccess Alpha Best Ideas Spring Virtual Conference
    • International Battery Seminar & Exhibit
    • International Conference on Advances in Critical Care Nephrology (AKI & CRRT 2024)
    • NYSE Materials Day
    • Partner Marketing Visionaries Summit
    • Society of Neuroimmune Pharmacology Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • HIMSS Global Health Conference and Exhibition
        • Society of Toxicology conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: