CAPIS Morning Note – 03/10/23: It’s All About The Bass, Whoops That Would be Jobs

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -1.85% from  Wednesday higher by 0.14% at 3992.01. The overnight high of 3924.25 was hit at 4:05 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 3884.25 at 1:55 a.m. EST, a range of ~40 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday lower by -1.85% from  Wednesday higher by 0.14% at 3992.01. The overnight high of 3924.25 was hit at 4:05 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 3884.25 at 1:55 a.m. EST, a range of ~40 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was lower by -11 points which is -0.28%.

Unfortunately, we lost some data in our update this morning due to a backend error. We will note where data was lost.

Breaking News: Iran and Saudia Arabia reestablish ties. (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: ULTA +1.08, HCP +0.15, DOCU +0.13, HRT +0.12, ZUMZ +0.10, FIZZ +0.05, ORCL +0.02, LOCO +0.02, SWBI +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: MTN (0.98), GPS (0.29), AOUT (0.10), AVO (0.06), BIRD (0.05), WPM (0.02) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity in the S&P 500.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • OLMA: Filed Form 424B5.. $100,000,000 Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • FIXX: Filed Form S-3.. $250 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • GEVO: Filed Form POSASR.. $500,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • GHRS: Filed Form F-3.. $200 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: SSYS +15%, SWBI +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: SIVB -22%, BIRD -18%, ZUMZ -10%, AVPT -10%, GPS -6%, DOCU -6%, ORCL -4% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: SIVB, ORCL, GPS, ZUMZ, MTN, DOCU, ULTA  (CNBC)
    • Oracle (ORCL) shares sink nearly 5% after third-quarter revenue miss. (CNBC)
    • Ulta Beauty (ULTA) crushed estimates on earnings and revenues, raised guidance for Fiscal Year 2024.
    • Gap Inc (GPS) misses on earnings and revenues, announce executive leadership changes and lowers guidance.
    • Allbirds (BIRD) stock drops 18% after wider loss, CFO departure. (MarketWatch)
    • Vail Resorts (MTN) lowers guidance as winter storms battered both U.S. coasts but specifically the East Coast ski venues. (MarketWatch)
    • Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund Advises Companies to Withdraw Money From SVB. (Bloomberg)
    • Petrobras (PBR) and Shell (SHEL) CEOs sign a Memorandum of Understanding to collaborate, will work to identify upstream opportunities.
    • Bitcoin fell for a fourth day, sending the world’s largest cryptocurrency to the lowest in nearly a month. (Bloomberg)
    • Assets Under Management – Ending Feb: VCTR $157.7 billion, APAM $134.8 billion, AB $665 billion (2% decrease), IVZ $1.458 billion (down 1.7%), BEN $1,416.5b vs. $1,451.9b
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Allbirds (BIRD) Appoints Annie Mitchell as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Amesite Inc. (AMST) Announces That it Has Regained Compliance with Nasdaq Listing Requirements.
    • DocuSign (DOCU) Announces CFO Transition Plan.
    • National Fuel (NFG) Announces CFO Transition.
    • Nemaura Medical (NMRD) Announces Receipt of Notice from Nasdaq.
    • TuSimple (TSP) Receives Expected Notice from Nasdaq Related to Delayed Filing of Annual Report on Form 10-K.
    • Zealand Pharma (ZEAL) Increases its Share Capital as a Consequence of Exercise of Employee Warrants
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Vail Resorts (MTN) Increases Share Repurchase Authorization. (see Dividends)
  • Stock Splits or News:
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Colgate-Palmolive (CL) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.01 to $0.48 per share. (MarketWatch)
    • Oracle (ORCL) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per share of outstanding common stock, a 25% increase.
    • Toll Brothers (TOL) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.01 to $0.21 per share.
    • Vail Resorts (MTN) Increases Quarterly Dividend 8% to $2.06 per share.
    • W.P. Carey (WPC) increases its quarterly dividend by 0.2% to $1.067 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -, Dow Jones -,  NASDAQ +, and Russell 2000 -. (as of 7:55 a.m. EST).  Asia lower and Europe lower as well. VIX Futures are at 21.80 from 19.40 yesterday.  Gold higher with Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.855% from 3.997% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $19,750 from $21,614 yesterday, lower by  -3.64%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Financial, Consumer Cyclical, Basic Materials, Real Estate, Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners: Industrials, Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials,Technology, Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrial, Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Industrial of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.

Stocks fell Thursday after jobless claims showed that the labor market is still strong, complicating the picture for the Federal Reserve’s rates path but then fell off the cliff as financials collapsed on weakness at Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) that -60.41%.  Stocks started the day higher, then turned down by midday. Losses picked up steam in the afternoon. The S&P 500 fell 1.8%, or 73.69 points, to 3918.32. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite dipped 2.1%, or 237.65 points, to 11338.35. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.7%, or 543.54 points, to close at 32254.86. (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: BLUE HRTX
  • Monday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  BKE +0.03 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses:  GENI -0.51 and JKS -0.48 of note.
  • Still to Report:  None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ULTA, DOCU, HCP, ORCL of note.
  • Negative Guidance: ZUMZ, GPS, BIRD of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up:  BKE +3% after earnings, SSYS +12% of note.
  • Gap Down:  DOCU -14%, ZUMZ -10%, GPS -7%, ORCL -5% and ULTA -1.5% after earnings of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

No update due to a processing error.

  • Stocks Making the Biggest Pre-Market Moves:  (CNBC)
  • 5 Things to Know Before Stock Market Opens Wednesday. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score divebombs to 11% from 45%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • President Biden receives the Daily Briefing at 9:00 a.m. EST.
    • President holds a meeting with the President of the European Commission Ursala von der Leyen at 2:00 p.m. EST.
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Piere, the Director of OMB and CEA Chair Cecila Rouse at 2:30 p.m. EST.

Economic:

  • February Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 220,000 from 205,000. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 3.4%.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST
  • The February Treasury Budget is due out at 2:00 p.m. EST and came in last month at $-38.8 billion.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: 

  • Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 10:00 a.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Nano Dimension (NNDM) offers to acquire Stratasys (SSYS) for $18 per share.
  • Trinity Industries (TRN) acquires RSI Logistics for $70 million.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Wolfe Research Consumer Conference.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

                               

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: