Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by 0.12% at 5130.95 from Friday higher by 0.80% at 5137.08. The overnight high was hit at 5138.50 at 4:05 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5117.75 at 5:15 a.m. EST. The range overnight is 21 points as of 7:15 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 22.72 from 22.51. The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-December. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -11.50 points at 7:20 a.m EST.
Executive Summary: Keep your eye on Apple (AAPL) and Target (TGT).
- February Global U.S. Services PMI Final are due out at 9:45 a.m. EST and came in last month at 52.5.
- January Factory Orders is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to fall to -2.5% from 0.2%.
- February ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 52.70% from 53.40%.
- Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 12:00 p.m. EST
- Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 3:30 p.m. EST
- Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari 4:15 p.m. EST
Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: AVAV +0.30, GTLB +0.07, PAY +0.03, SEMR +0.02 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: SFIX (0.07) of note.
- IPOs Priced or News:
- Lucas GC Limited (LGCL) Announces Pricing of Upsized Initial Public Offering.
- New SPACs launched/News:
- Aetherium Acquisition Corp (GMFI) Announces Postponement of Special Meeting of Stockholders.
- Secondaries Priced:
- HLNE: Prices offering of 1,922,322 shares of Class A common stock for gross proceeds of ~$210 million.
- Notes Priced of note:
- CCO: Announces Pricing of Senior Secured Notes Due 2030.
- IRTC: Prices offering of $575.0 mln of 1.50% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029.
- MP: announces pricing of $650 million 3.00% convertible notes.
- Common Stock filings/Notes:
- AKRO: announces proposed public offering of $300 million of common stocks. (JPM, MS, Jefferies and Evercore bookmanagers)
- ALB: Announces proposed public offering of $1.75 billion of depositary shares.
- BBIO: Announces proposed public offering of $250 million of common stocks. (JPM, Cantor and Mizuho bookmanagers)
- HLNE: Commences public offering of 1,922,322 shares of Class A common stock. (MS Bookmanager)
- INBS: Filed Form S-3.. 636,367 Shares of Common Stock.
- Direct Offering:
- MNTS: Announces $4.0 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-the-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- ADVM: Files 106,480,057 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
- INTA: Offering 7,000,000 shares of common stock by selling shareholders; subsequent 1,050,000 share buyback. (JPM Underwriter)
- Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- PASG: FORM S-3 – $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
- RVMD: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
- Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
- KOS: Announces offering of $300 million of convertible senior notes due 2030.
- U: Agreed to repurchase approximately $479.8 million aggregate principal amount of the Company’s outstanding 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026.
- Tender Offer: None of note.
- Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
- LIVN: Announces proposed private offering of $300 million of convertible senior notes due 2029.
- MSTR: To offer $600 million convertible senior notes due 2030.
- TNDM: Announces proposed private placement of $250 million of convertible notes due 2029.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close :
- After Hours Movers:
- MNTS: +75% Awarded NASA Contracts
- RBOT: +27% Earnings
- PAY: +23% Earnings
- AVAV: +20% Earnings
- CRGY: +5% Earnings
- GTLB: -21% Earnings
- SEMR: -14% Earnings
- ALB: -7.5% Proposed Public Offering of Depositary Shares
- TNDM: -7% Proposed Private Placement of Convertible Notes
- KOS: -5% Offering Of $300 Million Of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2030
- News Items After the Close:
- China sets GDP target of ‘around 5%’ for 2024. (CNBC)
- GitLab’s (GTLB) weak earnings guidance is punishing its stock. (MarketWatch)
- BWX Technologies (BWXT) awarded up to $45.0 billion U.S. Department of Energy contract for environmental management operations at the Hanford Site in Washington.
- Rocket Lab USA (RKLB) and Momentus Space (MNTS) are among the list of companies awarded a $45 million IDIQ NASA contract for flight and payload integration services.
- NVDA MORGAN STANLEY: Today’s $NVDA CFO presentation at our conference “was largely a reiteration of the ‘greatest hits’ .. .. New products are already sold out — don’t be alarmed by H100 chip lead times coming down .. .. Inference at 40% mix .. .. Total TAM of $2 trillion — there’s a $1 trillion TAM on simply replacing the existing Data Center infrastructure with accelerated computing, but another $1 trillion when you factor in efficiency gains.” (CQ CNBC)
- Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- Advanced Micro (AMD) hires former head of Oak Ridge National Lab to accelerate adoption of AMD technologies for sovereign AI deployments.
- Cable ONE (CABO) appoints Ken Johnson as COO.
- Century Communities’ (CCS) CFO stepping down to pursue other opportunities.
- Houlihan Lokey (HLI) announces leadership changes, including departure of its CEO, who will be succeeded by the Co-President and Global Co-Head of Corporate Finance.
- Landmark Bancorp (LARK) Announces New CEO in Leadership Transition.
- Sandoz (SDZNY) appoints Remco Steenbergen as CFO.
- Select Energy Services (WTTR) appoints Chris George as CFO.
- Buyback Announcements or News:
- Vivid Seats (SEAT) Authorizes New Share Repurchase Program.
- Stock Splits or News: None of note.
- Dividends Announcements or News: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 -18, Dow Jones -106, NASDAQ -101, and Russell 2000 -10. (as of 7:57 a.m. EST). Asia is lower ex Shanghai while Europe is higher this morning ex Germany. VIX Futures are at 14.12 from 14.04 yesterday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower along with Natural Gas. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.19% from 4.205% Monday morning. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $66,966 from $65,052 lower by -1.00% this morning.
Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
- Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Real Estate, Basic Materials of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Energy of note.
- One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrial of note.
- Three Month Winners: Technology, Industrial, Healthcare of note.
- Six Month Winners: Technology, Financial, and Communication Services of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Technology, Healthcare, Communication Services of note.
Major U.S. stock indexes pulled back Monday, weighed down by declines in the “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. The S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell roughly 98 points, or 0.2%. All three are coming off their fourth straight month of gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both ending last week with new records. Even as stocks have advanced, however, investors have become pickier about technology stocks. (WSJ – edited by QPI)
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Wednesday Before the Open:
Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: TGT +0.57, VVX +0.12, RSKD +0.12, MASS +0.03 of note.
- Flat: FWRG of note.
- Misses: NIO (0.42), FERG (0.08) of note.
- Still to Report: MCRB, SMRT of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: MXCT, BTDR, FWRG of note.
- Negative Guidance: SFIX, SEMR, NIO, FERG, MASS, VVX of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
- Gap Up: AVAV +19%, PAY +17%, TGT +7%, SEAT +5%, APGE +5%, CRGY +4%, RSKD +4% of note.
- Gap Down: GTLB -23%, SEMR -14%, SFIX -13%, ALB -8%, MSTR -6%, SBSW -5%, TNDM -5%, STXS -5%, BBIO -4%, LIVN -4% of note.
Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. GOGO sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
- 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: (CNBC)
- Morning Briefing for Bloomberg Subscribers. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg Lead Story: China Sets Ambitious Growth Target Despite Challenges. (Bloomberg)
- Wall Street hit by tech slide, Hawkish Fedspeak: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
- What to watch on Super Tuesday. (Bloomberg)
- Apple (AAPL) iPhone sales plunge 24% in China. (Bloomberg)
- Target (TGT) stocks pops on earnings beat. (Yahoo Finance)
- AMD hits a snag in trying to sell a chip to China. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg Daybreak: Super Tuesday and iPhone Sales. (Podcast)
- NYT The Daily: Growing threat of famine in Gaza. (Podcast)
- Marketplace: 2024 Election Season. (Podcast)
- Wealthion: Post Pandemic Housing Boom. (Podcast)
Moving Average Update: 100% Day 2.
Geopolitical:
- President’s Public Schedule:
- The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 AM
- The President departs Camp David en route to the White House, 12:00 PM
- The President arrives at the White House, 12:30 p.m. EST
- Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:30 p.m. EST
- The President convenes a meeting of his Competition Council to announce new actions to lower costs for hardworking families by fighting corporate rip-offs, 2:30 p.m. EST
Economic:
- Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
- February Global U.S. Services PMI Final are due out at 9:45 a.m. EST and came in last month at 52.5.
- January Factory Orders is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to fall to -2.5% from 0.2%.
- February ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 52.70% from 53.40%.
- API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:
- Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 12:00 p.m. EST
- Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 3:30 p.m. EST
- Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari 4:15 p.m. EST
M&A Activity and News: None of note.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Evercore ISI Industrial Conference
- Goldman Sachs Latin America Conference
- KeyBanc Emerging Technology Summit
- RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference
- Wolfe Research Housing Conference
- Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
- BAC Power, Utilities and Clean Energy Conference
- Citi Global Property CEO Conference
- Citizens JMP Technology Conference
- Cowen Health Care Conference
- Morgan Stanley TMT Conference
- Raymond James Institutional Investors Conference
- TD Cowen Healthcare Conferenc
- Top Shareholder Meetings: CMP, FSR, NDSN, NWS, QCOM
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BFRG, CVE, DOX, IINN, K, NDAQ, RGNX, TCBP, TGT
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings:
- AI conference, C3 Transform
- International Conference on Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s Disease
- NIC Spring Conference
- Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
- MDA Clinical & Scientific Conference
- PDAC Convention
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
