CAPIS Morning Note – 02/28/22: Stocks Down But Off Lows of 4251 On S&P 500, Russia Invasion Continues With Possible Meeting

Overnight Summary:  Fighting continues in Ukraine as a potential ceasefire is being discussed in Belarus. Futures however are not buying into it and are lower by -59 which is off the lows of 4251 at the opening of futures on Sunday night. Currently, they are at 4319 at 7:15 a.m. EST. Asia is mostly higher…

Overnight Summary:  Fighting continues in Ukraine as a potential ceasefire is being discussed in Belarus. Futures however are not buying into it and are lower by -59 which is off the lows of 4251 at the opening of futures on Sunday night. Currently, they are at 4319 at 7:15 a.m. EST. Asia is mostly higher with only Hong Kong lower while Europe is lower as expected.

Breaking News: Federal Reserve cuts off transactions with the Russian Central Bank.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ADIL: Filed Form S-3.. 3,977,888 Shares of common stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • TMO: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf
    • UA: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf
    • ZBH: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: TEN 83%, LNTH 59%, MTOR 44%, SJI 41%, TELL 38%, KAR 36%, OSTK 36%, REGI 30%, TCMD 29%, FTCH 27%, BPT 26%, AXGN 25%, AERI 24%, ROKU 23%, AVNS 23%, CVNA 23%, ATHN 23%, SQ 22%, RCUS 20%.
    • Trading Down: EVBG -32%, FL -31%, FIXX -31%, HSC -27%, KPTI -27%, LPSN -27%, RCII -26%, NDLS -24%, QIWI -23%, AAOI -21%, GDOT -17%, TRHC -17%, OSPN -16%, HFC -16%, JBT -16%, TCDA -16%, HLF -15%, SATS -15%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Chevron (CVX) in Talks for $3 Billion Renewable Energy Group (REGI) Deal. (Bloomberg).
    • New SEC short sale rules would force investors to submit updates each month (CNBC)
    • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) Net Earnings Rose 11% in Fourth Quarter (WSJ)
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks That Defined the Week: LOW, SOFI, CVNA, W, MRNA, BUD, OC.  (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: With Ukraine Invasion, Volatile Markets.  (NYT)
    • Computer chip industry begins halting deliveries to Russia in response to U.S. sanctions. (TSM) (Washington Post)
    • Treasury will sanction Russian President Putin and Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov.
    • New Research Points to Wuhan Markets as Pandemic Origin (NYT)
    • White House asks Congress for extra $6.4B to help Ukraine (Politico)
    • Germany commits €100 billion to defense spending. (LMT, NOC, GD, LHX) (DW)
    • Germany May Extend Coal Use to Replace Russian Gas (KOL, ARCH, TECK) (Bloomberg)
    • Investors Bet Oil Still Has Room to Run After Touching $100 (WSJ).
    • BP to Exit From Stake in Russia’s Rosneft Following Pressure From U.K. (WSJ)
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: APA, FLS, SWK, VFC, FDX, QRVO, TREX, FIVE, QCOM, CRWD, PANW, AQUA, DE, AWK, SO , KMX, STZ, GT.
      • Negative View: MRNA, PFE.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • SP Index Changes:
      • Molina Healthcare (MOH) will replace IHS Markit (INFO) in the S&P 500. (MarketWatch)
      • S&P SmallCap 600 constituent Range Resources (RRC) will replace Molina Healthcare in the S&P MidCap 400.
      • Golden Entertainment (GDEN) will replace Range Resources in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Wednesday, March 2.
      • S&P 500 constituent S&P Global (SPGI) is acquiring IHS Markit in a transaction expected to be completed on February 28.
    • Avery Dennison (AVY) announced that Deon Stander has been appointed as President and CEO starting March 1, 2022 .
    • Greenbrier (GBX) appointed Lorie Tekorius to the role of President and Chief Executive Officer, starting March 1.
    • NIO Inc. (NIO) Announces Proposed Secondary Listing on the Stock Exchange of Hong Kong.
    • Target Hospitality (TH) announced that Brad Archer will step down as President, CEO and member of the Board.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) buys back $6.9 billion of stock in Q4.
    • CI $7.7 billion of share repurchase.
    • NLSN – $1Billion repurchase authorization.
    • Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (OPY) Announces Share Repurchase Program  of up to 518,000 shares of common stock.
    • Park Hotels & Resorts (PK) approves share repurchase program of up to $300 million over the next 24 months.
    • VTRS $1 billion share repurchase announced.
  • Stock Splits:
    • W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) Announces 3-for-2 Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Aris Water Solutions (ARIS) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.02 to $0.09 per share.
    • L3Harris (LHX) Announces 10 Percent Quarterly Dividend Increase.
    • W. R. Berkley Corporation (WRB) Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -28, Dow Jones -402, NASDAQ -179,  and Russell 2000 -28.  Asia higher ex Hong Kong  and Europe lower. VIX Futures are at 29.39 from 29.15 yesterday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at 1.92% from 1.998% from Friday.  Bitcoin is at $38,551 from $35,109  at 1.88%. As of 8:15 a.m. EST

Friday’s Action – 02/25/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Basic Materials, Consumer Defensive, Financial, Utilities, Healthcare, Energy, Industrials, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: none of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Healthcare and Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Basic Materials of note.

Stocks ended sharply higher led by the Dow Jones Industrials – up 2.51%.  This was the best daily gain since early November 2020.  Updated 02/25/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: WDAY, LCID, HPQ, ZM, SBAC, OKE, DAR, GDRX, TREX, NVAX, PDCE, MRTX, ACAD, FRPT, SAIL, PGNY, AAON, TASK, KOD, GBDC, HLIO, DDD, PRAA, NKTR, BIGC, SUPN, TPTX, PRIM, FGEN, BLNK, VRM, SDC, SEER, HRTX, GRPN, ENDP, SRI of note.
  • Tuesday Before the Open: TGT, BNS, BMO, BIDU, AZO, HRL, HZNP, DPZ, SJM, BLDR, CLVT, ONON, KSS, HTA, HGV, IGT, ITCI, TMX, PRGO, WEN, APG, NOVT, NFE, FOUR, ARVN, WBT, TWNK, KTB, GCP, FSS, XHR, EVRI, AMRS, TRS, RDNT, AMRN, EBIX, TILE, EHTH, EPZM of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: PDCE +2.26, JLL +1.85, RETA +0.34, RIDE +0.33, EYE +0.15, NLSN +0.10, WHD +0.05, HSKA +0.03, HNI +0.02, TGNA +0.02.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: VTRS (0.97), ARVN (0.24), ASTE (0.06), XRAY (0.03), BEAM (0.01), WBT (0.01), DEA (0.01).
  • Still to Report: ITRI.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: UNIT, DV, EXC, NLSN, HSKA.
  • Negative Guidance: EYE, XRAY, VTRS.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 02/25/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: FHN +32%, REGI +32%, ABUS +14%, LHX +5%.
  • Gap Down: RSX -24%, OZON -19%, CANO -10%, HR -9%, BP -7%, LXRX -7%, HTA -6%, TTE -6.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 02/25/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: BRK.B, BP, FHN, REGI, SBUX, ZEN, NOG, HTA, TOL, NLSN. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. and European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, England and Canada remove Russian banks from SWIFT.
  • Russian Ruble drops 30% as sanctions ramped higher over the weekend. (CNBC)
  • Ukraine officials arrive in Belarus border for talks. Russian Central Bank hikes rates from 9.5% to 20%. (CNBC)
  • Russian President Putin has raised his nuclear alert. (NYT)
  • Russia is facing greater resistance than they expected. (Bloomberg)
  • China is buying oil, wheat and coal from Russia and favors negotiations over violating the sovereignty of Ukraine. (NYT)
  • Treasury yields drop on sanctions imposed on Russia. (CNBC)
  • WHO notes that Ukraine hospitals may run out of oxygen in 24 hours as trucks cannot get to hospitals. As the masses leave Ukraine, the potential for Covid-19 outbreak rises.(CNBC)
  • NYC to end school mask mandate on March 2nd and vaccination passport on March 7th. (Bloomberg)
  • Warren Buffet’s Annual Letter is out and praises Apple’s (AAPL) Tim Cook. (CNBC)
  • Ukraine wants Apple (AAPL) to stop sales in Russia. (Bloomberg)
  • Nvidia (NVDA) hit by a cyberattack. (Bloomberg)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score improves to 43% from 6%.  Updated 02/25/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President departs New Castle, Delaware en route the White House, 8:55 a.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 9:50 a.m. EST
    • The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, 10:30 a.m. EST
    • The President hosts a secure call with Allies and partners to discuss the latest developments regarding Russia’s attack on Ukraine and to coordinate our united response, 11:15 a.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady host a celebration to mark Black History Month with The Vice President, The Second Gentleman, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, the Acting Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the United States Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, members of the Congressional Black Caucus, State and local elected officials, Civil Rights leaders, and Divine Nine leadership, 2:00 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 3:00 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data came out after the close of trading on Friday. During the collection period of January 27th through February 11th  the S&P 500 rose 2.13%. NASDAQ Short Interest rose 2.86%. NYSE rose 4.81%. The S&P 500 closed at 4418.64 and is now at 4384.65 but hit a low on 4114.65 on Thursday morning.
  • International Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EST
  • Wholesale Inventories 8:30 a.m. EST 
  • February Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. and is expected to fall to 62 from 65.2.
  • Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 a.m. EST
  • Farm Prices 3:00 p.m. EST 

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostinc 10:30 a.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Biocon Biologics to Acquire Viatris’ Biosimilars (VTRS) Assets for up to $3.335 Billion in Stock and Cash.
  • Brown & Brown (BRO) to acquire Orchid Underwriters Agency and CrossCover Insurance Services.
  • Chevron (CVX) Announces Agreement to Acquire Renewable Energy Group (REGI) for $61.50 a share.
  • TD to acquire First Horizon (FHN) in an all-cash transaction valued at $13.4 billion, or $25.00 for each share of First Horizon.
  • Healthcare Realty (HR) and Healthcare Trust of America (HTA) enter into $18 billion combination.
  • Zendesk (ZEN) confirms that it has terminated its merger agreement with Momentive Global (MNTV).

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Credit Suisse Energy Summit
    • Deutsche Bank ESG Conference (02/28/22-03/02/22)
    • Evercore Industrial Conference (02/28/22-03/01/22)
    • JP Morgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference (02/28/22-03/02/22)
    • Morgan Stanley Energy and Power Conference (02/28/22-03/02/22)
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • BMO Capital Markets 31st Global Metals & Mining Conference 2022 (02/27/22-03/02/22)
        • Credit Suisse 27th Annual Energy Summit 2022 (02/27/22-03/02/22)
  • Company Meetings: CSCO, MINM, NTLA, VTRS.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: WES
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Society for Experimental Neurotherapeutics (ASENT) Annual Meeting 2022 (02/27/22-03/03/22)
    • Inspire 2022 (02/27/22-03/02/22)
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • American Academy of Allergy, Asthma, and Immunology (02/25/22-02/28/22)
        • International Franchise Association’s 2022 (02/25/22-03/01/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

      

Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades: