Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.03% at 5088.80 from Thursday higher by 2.11% at 5087.03. The overnight high was hit at 5101.25 at 6:45 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5087.25 at 8:15 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 14 points as of 7:10 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 20.89 from 21.75. The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-December. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -2.00 points at 7:10 a.m.
Executive Summary: The most important day of economic releases is Thursday when PCE Core is released. Given the higher CPI and PPI numbers, breaking that trend will be key for PCE Core. Watch the market reaction to today’s Treasury auction at 1:00 p.m. EST.
- New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. and are expected to rise to 690,000 from 664,000 last month.
- The Treasury will hold a 5 Year-Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST.
Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: None of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
- New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- Secondaries Priced: None of note.
- Notes Priced of note: None of note.
- Common Stock filings/Notes:
- APLE: Equity distribution agreement $500 Million Common Shares.
- ALVO: Accepts offer for the sale of shares for a value of ~$166 million at a purchase price of $16.41 (ISK 2,250) per share.
- DLR: Filed Form 424B5.. $2,000,000,000 Common Stock.
- EQ: Filed Form 424B5.. Up to $21,950,000 Common Stock.
- IPA: Sales Agreement – Company may offer and sell up to $60 million of Common Shares.
- NTLA: Open Market Sale Agreement. Increase the size of the at-the-market offering program from $400,000,000 to $750,000,000.
- VATE: Announces Rights Offering for Common Stock.
- Direct Offering:
- PLUG and B. Riley entered into Amendment No. 1 to the Original Agreement of At Market Issuance Sales Agreement.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- TPG: Announced that certain stockholders intend to offer 15,526,915 shares of TPG’s Class A common stock.
- Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- ATI: Filed FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
- AVB: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
- CTXR: Filed FORM S-3 – $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
- MGM: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
- MKL: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
- MSI: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
- PFE: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
- Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
- IEX: Filed For S-3ASR ..Debt Securities.
- CCO: Announces Proposed Private Offering of Senior Secured Notes.
- WCC: Announces Commencement of Private Offering of Senior Notes Due 2029 and Senior Notes Due 2032.
- Tender Offer: None of note.
- Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close and Over the Weekend:
- Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
- Trading Up: EBS 75.0%, IOVA 70.3%, CVNA 31.7%, SNBR 30.4%, NVAX 28.1%, QRTEA 27.9%, AGIO 24.5%, TOUR 22.7%, BLUE 22.6%, UVE 20.9%, ADAP 20.8%, TRTX 20.7%, SQ 20.5%, TNDM 19.3%, RCUS 16.8%, BLX 16.4%, AWI 16.4%, NEO 16.2%.
- Trading Down: UPLD -41.4%, UIS -34.3%, AAOI -32.6%, TDOC -31.0%, INSG -30.7%, PLCE -30.0%, FOXF -29.8%, CYH -27.5%, RUN -27.5%, PANW -23.0%, SEDG -21.0%, LXRX -20.9%, SGMO -18.8%, MED -18.8%.
- News Items After the Close:
- Intuitive Machines (LUNR) CEO: Believe Lunar Lander Has Tipped Over on Surface of Moon.
- Huntington Ingalls (HII) awarded a $1.17 billion modification to previously awarded US Navy contract for completion of USS Boise.
- News Items Over the Weekend:
- The Score: Stocks That Defined the Week – DFS, COF, NVDA, T, RIVN, GM, F, VZ, TMUS, LUNR (WSJ)
- Alcoa (AA) Makes $2.2 Billion Bid for Australian Partner Alumina. (Bloomberg)
- In a letter to employees, AT&T (T) CEO apologizes for widespread outage, says some customers will receive credits. (CNBC)
- Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) operating earnings jump 28% in the fourth quarter, cash pile surges to record. (CNBC)
- Barron’s:
- Positive View: BLMN, IBN, TTM, NVDA of note.
- Cautious View: AMZN of note.
- Mixed View: None of note.
- Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:
- Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- AbCellera Biologics (ABCL): Peter Thiel to resign from the Board of Directors for personal reasons.
- Adamas One (JEWL) Receives Nasdaq Notification of Non-Compliance with Listing Rule 5250(c)(1).
- BullFrog AI (BFRG) Appoints Globally Renowned Biomedical AI Expert Dr. Thomas W. Chittenden as Chief Scientific Officer.
- Waldencast (WALD) Receives Positive Nasdaq Listing Determination.
- Zions Bancorp (ZION) announces several leadership changes, including the retirement of CEO A. Scott Anderson, who will be succeeded by CFO Paul Burdiss as company’s next CEO.
- Buyback Announcements or News:
- Faraday Future (FFIE) Authorized Share Reduction. (see Splits below)
- Tenaris (TS) to Commence a USD 300 million Second Tranche of its USD 1.2 Billion Share Buyback Program.
- Stock Splits or News:
- Reverse split stocks for today LSDI 1/10
- 180 Life Sciences Corp. (ATNF) Announces 1-For 19 Reverse Stock Split as Part of Nasdaq Compliance Plan.
- Celularity (CELU) Announces 1-for-10 Reverse Stock Split.
- China Pharma Holdings Inc. (CPHI) Announces 1-for-5 Reverse Stock Split.
- Faraday Future (FFIE) Announces Reverse Stock Split.
- WMT trading 1/3 split this morning.
- Dividends Announcements or News:
- Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) Board of Directors approves 25% increase in quarterly dividend to $1.51 per share.
- Fresh Del Monte (FDP) an increase to the quarterly cash dividend to $0.25 per share.
- Vistra Energy (VST) increases quarterly cash dividend 9% to $0.215 per share from $0.213 per share.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 -4, Dow Jones -30, NASDAQ -8, and Russell 2000 -8. (as of 8:00 a.m. EST). Asia is higher ex South Korea and Europe is lower ex Germany this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.80 from 14.78 yesterday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper are lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower while Natural Gas is higher. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.242% from 4.329% Friday morning. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $51,048 from $50,940 higher by -1.81% this morning.
Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
- Daily Positive Sectors: Industrials, Utilities, Basic Materials, Healthcare, Financial of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Consumer Cyclical of note.
- One Month Winners: Technology, Healthcare, Financial, and
Industrials of note.
- Three Month Winners: Technology, Healthcare, Financial of note.
- Six Month Winners: Technology, Financial, and Communication Services of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Technology, Healthcare, Communication Services of note.
Stock bulls found much to cheer for this past week. All three major U.S. equity indexes added at least 1.3% for the week, marking six weekly gains in the eight weeks of 2024 so far. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at new records on Thursday, then did it again Friday. The Dow on Thursday rose above 39000 for the first time. Nvidia’s (NVDA) Wednesday evening earnings report sent technology investors into a fervor. The chip maker’s shares soared 17% in the two trading days after its quarterly sales and forecast topped Wall Street expectations. Nvidia’s market valuation briefly jumped above $2 trillion on Friday. After a blockbuster 2023 for stocks, investors are getting more of the same in 2024. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are both up roughly 7% so far this year. (WSJ – edited by QPI)
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: LI +0.72, KRYS +0.67, BCRX +0.53, FRPT +0.23, PPC +0.16, DPZ +0.10, SGRY +0.05, PEG +0.02 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: PLTK (0.07), FIS (0.06), FDP (0.05), ELAN (0.02) of note.
- Still to Report: AMR, CCO, DORM, ITRI, of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: FRPT, SGRY of note.
- Negative Guidance: LI, ELAN, PLTK of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
- Gap Up: LI +12%, ALVO +10%, KOS +7%, TEVA +5%, BRK.B +4%, CCO +4%, DPZ +4% of note.
- Gap Down: SSL -6%, FDP -4% of note.
Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
- 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg Lead Story: Ronna McDaniel to vacate RNC Chair in March after Pressure From Trump. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Risk models behind world’s best hedge fund strategy are getting a lot harder to crack. (Bloomberg)
- Stocks take a breather at start of data rich week: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
- Former President Donald Trump defeated Former Governor of South Carolina Nikki Haley in South Carolina by 20%. (NYT)
- Nikki Haley hinted she may only stay in the race through Super Tuesday. (Politico)
- Koch Network to stop funding Haley in a blow to her 2024 bid. (Bloomberg)
- The U.S. and U.K. carried out large-scale military strikes against Yemen. (NYT)
- The House is expected to vote on four bills to avoid a government shutdown though one bill may be a one week extension. (NBC News)
- Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRKB) valuation nears $1 trillion on earnings beat. (CNBC)
- Rival, Zealand Pharma, to Eli Lily (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) in Denmark soars 32% on promises liver drug news that may be used in weight loss. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg: The Big Take: Russia’s hunt for arms meets North Korea’s need for cash. (Podcast)
- NY Times Daily: Alabama court ruling that could stop families from having kids. (Podcast)
- Marketplace: How NetChoice became Big Tech’s ally against social media regulation. (Podcast)
- Wealthion: Nvidia’s exploding surge. Can the market keep up? (Podcast)
Moving Average Update: Score hits 100% from 94% to close out the week.
Geopolitical:
- President’s Public Schedule:
- The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EST
- The President departs the White House en route to Joint Base Andrews, 12:25 p.m. EST
- The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to Queens, New York, 12:45 p.m. EST
- Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre will speak aboard Air Force One en route to Queens, New York, 1:00 p.m. EST
- The President arrives in Queens, New York, 1:40 p.m. EST
- The President departs Queens, New York en route to New York, New York, 1:50 p.m. EST
- The President arrives in New York, New York, 2:10 p.m. EST
- The President participates in a campaign meeting, 2:45 p.m. EST
- The President departs New York, New York en route to Queens, New York, 6:30 p.m. EST
- The President departs Queens, New York en route to Joint Base Andrews, 7:00 p.m. EST
- The President departs Joint Base Andrews en route to the White House, 8:05 p.m. EST
- The President arrives at the White House, 8:15 p.m. EST
Economic:
- New Home Sales 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 690,000 from 664,000 last month
- Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 a.m. EST
- 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 a.m. EST
- 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 a.m. EST
- 5-YR Note Auction 1:00 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.
M&A Activity and News:
- ServiceNow (NOW) to Acquire Atrinet NetACE Network Technology to Accelerate Business Transformation for Telcos.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- BMO Global Metals & Mining Conference
- D.A. Davidson GLP-1 Webinar
- J.P. Morgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference
- UBS Financial Services Conference
- Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
- Top Shareholder Meetings: ADOC MNTN NMRD
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: JANX NERV TCRX
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings:
- AAAAI Annual Meeting
- BIO CEO & Investor Conference
- Mobile World Congress
- NARUC Winter Policy Summit
- ViVE Digital Health Tech Conference
- Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
