CAPIS Morning Note – 02/24/23: Stocks Look To Close Out The Week Lower As Economic Data Hits This Morning

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 0.53% at 4012.32 from Wednesday lower by -0.16% at 3991.05.  The overnight high of 4023.25 was hit at 8:05 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3990.75 at 7:05 a.m. EST, a range of ~33 points high to low.  At 7:20 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 0.53% at 4012.32 from Wednesday lower by -0.16% at 3991.05.  The overnight high of 4023.25 was hit at 8:05 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 3990.75 at 7:05 a.m. EST, a range of ~33 points high to low.  At 7:20 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was lower by -24.75 points which is -0.62%.

Chart Highlight: We display the Erlanger Value Lines on a daily basis, but will highlight them today above the fold due to yesterday’s action.  Erlanger Value Lines tend to act like magnets for certain daily levels that are established as trading commences at the open.  They can attract market action towards them or they can repel them (see circles in chart below).  Phil Erlanger, CMT did a great video on how to use Value Lines. Click here for the video.  Also, the graphic next to the chart below shows what the different colored lines mean.  These lines are determined at the beginning of the trading day and do not change. Note that yesterday after the open stocks fell to support (green line) at 3972.84 and then rallied back to resistance (red line) at 4013.31 before ultimately retesting it again and settling at 4012.32, just below resistance. These lines are available on a Bloomberg terminal (APPS ERLA <GO>) as well as through eSignal which is now owned by ICE.

 

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: BKNG +2.66, INTU +0.76, MELI +0.76, XNCR +0.60, PRTA +0.59, PRI +0.56, OLED +0.41, PODD +0.36, MP +0.26, FOXF +0.22, BECN +0.19, OPEN +0.19, SPXC +0.19, RLAY +0.17, TMST +0.16, BYND +0.15, PLYA +0.14, GDOT +0.12, ALTR +0.12, LAW +0.12, KWR +0.12, RHP +0.10, ALRM +0.09, BIGC +0.09, CHE +0.08, INGN +0.08, TVTX +0.08, FND +0.07, BBDC +0.07, INFN +0.07, EIX +0.06, ADSK +0.05, LSI +0.05, MTZ +0.05, VICI +0.05, GDYN +0.03, DH +0.03, ACA +0.03, LZ +0.03, PRDO +0.03, GLPI +0.02, IRTC +0.02, ALKT +0.02, MCW +0.02, PAY +0.02, CDXS +0.02, CUBE +0.01, ENV +0.01, NVTS +0.01, PEN +0.01, KTOS +0.01, RVLV +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: AMH +0.00, BWXT +0.00, FTCH +0.00, OPK +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: CABO (25.43), BALY (8.84), CVNA (5.24), WBD (0.62), ZETA (0.45), VIR (0.34), FTAI (0.33), PBA (0.27), CE (0.21), NOG (0.20), SG (0.14), SEM (0.14), LASR (0.13), OII (0.13), LPRO (0.12), EXFY (0.11), EOG (0.10), BOOM (0.08), SQ (0.08), VICR (0.07), COLL (0.06), ATSG (0.05), CWK (0.04), SWN (0.02), UPLD (0.02), MNKD (0.02), HBM (0.02), ACCO (0.01), GH (0.01), LMAT (0.01), BCOV (0.01), CYRX (0.01), LNT (0.01) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • TCMD: Announces Pricing of $32.5 Million Public Offering of Common Stock.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • ON: Announces Upsize and Pricing of Private Offering of $1.3 Billion of 0.50% Convertible Senior Notes.
    • SO: Announces pricing of $1.5 billion in aggregate principal amount of Series 2023A 3.875% Convertible Senior Notes due December 15, 2025.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ACRS: Form 424B5.. $200,000,000 Common Stock.
    • SLS: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering. (Cantor bookmanager)
    • TCMD: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Blair bookmanager)
  • Direct Offering:
    • ADIL: Announces Pricing of $0.75 Million At-The-Market Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • EQRX: Files for 340,919,633 share common stock offering by selling shareholders, relates to warrants. (see Mixed Shelf)
    • RYI: Announces Secondary Offering of 2,486,580 Shares of Common Stock by its Principal Shareholder and a Concurrent Stock Repurchase.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AGIO: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf.
    • BRP: Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • BCOV: Files $150 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • CFB: Files $250 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • DOOO: Filed Form F-10 Mixed Shelf.
    • EQRX: Files $300 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • OGS: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • PEN: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • POST: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • TROX: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • LDOS: Pricing Terms of Cash Tender Offer for Any and All 2.950% Senior Notes Due 2023.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: BYND +12%, FTCH +11%,  VRRM +10%, CYRX +9%, PLYA +8%, SQ +6%, RVLV +5%, MP +5%, FND +4%, MELI +4% of note.
    • Trading Down:  NKTR -32%, BIGC -15%, LASR -14%, TCMD -12%, SG -9%, ESS -6%, NOG -4%, BWXT -4%, OPEN -4%, MCW -4%, ADBE -4%, ADSK -4%, CE -4% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: CVNA, BA, MELI, EOG, ADSK, SQ, CVNA, WBD (CNBC)
    • Autodesk (ADSK) stock slumps as outlook overshadows earnings beat. (MarketWatch)
    • Block (SQ) misses on earnings but beats on revenue, gross profit. (CNBC)
    • JPMorgan (JPM) CEO Jamie Dimon: My View Is Interest Rates May Need To Go A Little Higher – CNBC -Possible Rates Could Hit 6%,
    • Deaprtment of Justics (DOJ) Preparing Suit To Block Adobe’s (ADBE) $20 Billion Deal For Figma. (Bloomberg)
    • DOJ alleges Google (GOOGL) destroyed chat messages that it was required to save during antitrust investigation. (CNBC)
    • Boeing (BA) temporarily halts delivery of 787 Dreamliners over fuselage issue. (WSJ)
    • Naval Air Systems Command Awards Kratos Sole (KTOS) Source $49.6 Million Initial Contract for Full Rate Production (Lot 4) of the BQM-177A Subsonic Aerial Target System.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Index Changes:
      • Columbia Banking System (COLB) Set to Join S&P MidCap 400.
      • Verra Mobility (VRRM) to Join S&P SmallCap 600.
    • AAL: Greg Smith Appointed Independent Chairman of American Airlines Group Board of Directors. (MarketWatch)
    • Banc of California (BANC) Announces Transition of Chief Financial Officer.
    • Booking Holdings (BKNG) CFO David Goulden to retire in early 2024.
    • Dorman Products (DORM) approved succession plan, whereby Steven L. Berman will step down from role as Executive Chairman and be appointed Non-Executive Chairman.
    • Duluth Holdings Inc. (DLTH) Announces Retirement of Director.
    • Enochian BioSciences (ENOB) Announces Receipt of Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Delayed Filing of Form 10-Q for the Period Ended December 31, 2022.
    • Farfetch (FTCH) Announces CFO Will Step Down By End 2023.
    • Intuit (INTU) Announces CFO Succession Plan. (MarketWatch)
    • Leggett & Platt (LEG) Executive Chairman to retire as an executive officer.
    • SNMP: NYSE American Approves Evolve’s Plan to Regain Compliance.
    • Werner Enterprises (WERN) announces that its Board of Directors appointed Christopher D. Wikoff to serve as EVP, Treasurer and CFO.
    • WISH Appoints Joe Yan Into Permanent CEO Position.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Barings BDC (BBDC) authorizes share repurchase program for up to $30 million of common stock. (see dividends)
    • The Cato Corporation (CATO) Announces Increased Share Repurchase Authorization by 1 million shares. (see Dividends)
  • Stock Splits or News: 
    • WINT trading reverse split price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Albemarle (ALB) increases quarterly dividend to $0.40 per share.
    • Allison Transmission (ALSN) increases quarterly dividend 10% to $0.23 per share.
    • ALL Goes ex div on Monday for $0.89.
    • BankUnited (BKU) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.02 to $0.27 per share.
    • Barings BDC (BBDC) increases quarterly dividend $0.01 to $0.25 per share.
    • The Cato Corporation (CATO) Announces Regular Quarterly Dividend.
    • Cohen & Steers (CNS) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.02 to $0.57 per share.
    • Crown (CCK) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.24 per share.
    • EOG Resources (EOG) Board declared special dividend of $1.00.
    • Essex Property (ESS) increases quarterly dividend 5% to $2.31 per share.
    • Gaming and Leisure Properties, Inc. (GLPI) Announces 2023 First Quarter Dividend of $0.72 per Share and Special Dividend of $0.25 per Share.
    • Globe Life (GL) increases quarterly dividend to $0.2250 per share.
    • GLW Goes ex div on Monday for $0.28.
    • Lamar Advertising (LAMR) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.05 to $1.25 per share.
    • Pembina’s (PBA) Board of Directors has declared a common share cash dividend for the first quarter of 2023 of $0.6525 per share.
    • Playa Hotels and Resorts (PLYA)Board approved $200 million buyback to replace existing $100 million authorization.
    • Prologis (PLD) Board of Directors Approves 10 Percent Increase in Quarterly Common Stock Dividend.
    • Trinseo (TSE) reduces quarterly dividend 56% to $0.14 per share from $0.32 per share.
    • Turning Point Brands (TPB) increases quarterly dividend to $0.065 per share.
    • Universal Display (OLED) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.05 to $0.35 per share.
    • Vistra Energy (VST) increases quarterly dividend 16% to $0.1975 per share.
    • WELL Goes ex div on Monday for $0.61.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -26, Dow Jones -185,  NASDAQ -108, and Russell 2000 -13. (as of 8:00 a.m. EST).  Asia higher ex the Kospi and Europe lower ex the FTSE. VIX Futures are at 21.85 from  21.78   yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower for a second day in a row.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.91% from 3.943%   yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $23,898.50 from $23,845 yesterday, lower by  -0.28%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Technology, Real Estate, Industrials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Basic Materials  of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Basic Materials, Energy, Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, Industrial of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services of note.

U.S. stocks rebounded from early losses Thursday, snapping a multi dayslong selloff in the S&P 500 that was driven by concerns about the trajectory of interest rates. The S&P 500 climbed 21.27 points, or 0.5%, to 4012.32, breaking its longest losing streak this year (4 days). The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 108.82 points, or 0.3%, to 33153.91 after initial declines.  The Nasdaq Composite gained 83.33 points, or 0.7%, to 11590.40. Nvidia, one of the index’s biggest constituents, surged $29.10, or 14%, to $236.64 as investors bought the stock post earnings and guidance. The semiconductor company said late Wednesday that it is expecting an AI-driven boom and a recovery in its videogame business.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

    

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: CRI +0.49, FYBR +0.43, CM +0.22, SLCA +0.17, GTN +0.12, TPB +0.11, ACMR +0.04, HEP +0.03, BRC +0.03, NWN +0.03, EVRG +0.03, TBLA +0.01, PNM +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: none of note.
  • Misses: LAMR (0.64), DINO (0.63), CNK (0.47), SSP (0.22), CRC (0.22), GTLS (0.03) of note.
  • Still to Report: DBRG, UNIT of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: LMAT, KTOS, PODD, ZETA, CHE, ACA, PRDO, CYRX, MTZ of note.
  • Negative Guidance: NKLA, LZ, GH, SG, FND, ADSK, OLED, ALTR, ENV, MCW, LSI, CDXS, DH, CICI, LPRO, AMH, BIGC, ACCO, LAW, CE, ATSG, GTN, CRI, TBLA of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: PLYA +13%, BYND +13%, CYRX +12%, GDYN +11%, PRDO +9%, FTCH +8%, VRRM +7%, GH +7%, SQ +7%, ZETA +6%, MP +6%, KTOS +6%, PODD +5%, BECN +5%, GL +5%, MELI +5%, CDXS +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: NKTR -36%, BIGC -16%, LASR -12%, ALKT -12%, TCMD -10%, UPLD -10%, OII -9%, LPRO -9%, LAW -9%, SG -8%, VICR -7%, ESS -6%, EIX -6%, ATSG -5%, OPEN -5%, ADSK -5%, WBD -5%, FTAI -5%, TROX -5%, EXFY -5%, SEM -5%, CVNA -4% of note.

Insider Action: RSG sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  HLF sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making the Biggest Pre-Market Moves: BYND, ADBE, SQ, EOG, SG, CVNA, ADSK, WBD, BA, MELI, BYND (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens today. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  China Cease Fire Proposal for Ukraine Falls Flat with U.S. and Allies. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Apple Makes Major Progress on No-Prick Blood Glucose Tracking For Its Watch. (Bloomberg)
  • Ukraine marks one year of war. (CNBC)
  • Investors Dump Equities and Cash Amid Fears of Hawkish Fed, Bank of America says as Money Flows to Bonds. (Bloomberg)
  • Morgan Stanley note says that J.P. Morgan (JPM) could reach a $1 trillion valuation by 2030, currently at $411 billion. (Bloomberg)
  • Block (SQ) misses on earnings but beats on revenues and gross profit. (CNBC)
  • Boeing (BA) halts delivery of Dreamliner over fuselage issue. (Reuters)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 37%, day 3.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 8:30 a.m. EST
    • The President gathers with G7 Leaders and President Zelenskyy for a virtual meeting to continue coordinating our efforts to support Ukraine and hold Russia accountable for its war, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route New Castle, Delaware, 5:25 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives in New Castle, Delaware, 6:20 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • January PCE Core is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.4% from 0.3%.
  • January New Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to rise to 620,000 from 616,000.
  • January Personal Income is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to improve to 0.9% from 0.20%.
  • February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final) is also due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and expected to rise to 66.6 from 66.4.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester was on CNBC at 8 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester 10:15 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Philip N. Jefferson 10:15 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard  11:30 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Christopher Waller 1:30 P.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Boston President Susan M. Collins 1:30 P.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Bentley Systems (BSY) Announces Acquisition of EasyPower, Leader in Power Systems Engineering Software.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BMO Capital Markets 32nd Global Metals & Mining Conference 2023 (02/26/23-03/01/23)
    • Credit Suisse 28th Annual Vail Summit 2023 (02/26/23-03/01/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Microcap Rodeo 3rd Annual Winter Wonderland Best Ideas Virtual Investor Conference 2023 (02/21/23-02/24/23)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: