CAPIS Morning Note – 02/23/24: 5,100 Next Level For S&P 500 to Take Out?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 2.11% at 5087.03 from Wednesday higher by 0.13% at 4981.80. The overnight high was hit at 5104.25 at 1:05 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5092 at 4:30 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 12 points as of 7:15 a.m. EST. The 10-day…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 2.11% at 5087.03 from Wednesday higher by 0.13% at 4981.80. The overnight high was hit at 5104.25 at 1:05 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5092 at 4:30 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 12 points as of 7:15 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 21.75 from 23.25.  The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-December. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +0.50 points at 7:15 a.m. 

Executive Summary: Even God rested for a day after creating the world. So a day with little catalysts to move the market is nice. That  said, it will be interesting to see if the S&P 500 can clear 5100 which will up this rally up almost 1,000 points since it began in October.
  • No economic or geopolitical events of note or earnings after the close.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: CABO +7.68, BKNG +2.28, PODD +0.75, FTAI +0.68, FIX +0.34, INTU +0.33, BMRN +0.29, GH +0.22, COLL +0.20, ACA +0.19, VIR +0.15, ALRM +0.15, OLED +0.14, EIX +0.12, ENV +0.12, RHP +0.11, LAW +0.09, ALTM +0.08, FND +0.08, CHUY +0.07, PEN +0.06, EVH +0.06, ACCO +0.06, RLAY +0.06, ALTR +0.05, RKT +0.05, SWN +0.04, SFM +0.04, LZ +0.03, MP +0.02, MRVI +0.02, PLYA +0.02, SEM +0.02, LASR +0.01, RMAX +0.01, BBDC +0.01, COLD +0.01, AMH +0.01, MODV +0.01, HCAT +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: INDI +0.00, DRH +0.00, WTRG +0.00, VICI +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: MELI (3.84), FOXF (0.35), VCYT (0.30), IRTC (0.25), SNBR (0.24), NE (0.20), VICR (0.17), CVNA (0.15), LYV (0.15), SQ (0.13), EXPI (0.11), OII (0.06), EXFY (0.04), NOG (0.04), CTRA (0.03), ZIP (0.02), ARDX (0.02), EOG (0.01), CPRT (0.01), AEE (0.01), SPXC (0.01), GDYN (0.01) of note.
  • AG , PBA , RIOT

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: Reddit (RDTT) files to go public (see News Items After The Close).
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • KTOS: Prices offering of 16,666,667 shares of common stock at $18.00 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • BSX: Announces Pricing of €2.0 Billion of Senior Notes.
    • LYFT: Announces Pricing of Offering of $400 million of Convertible Senior Notes.
    • RCL: Announces upsizing and pricing of $1.25 billion offering of senior unsecured notes to refinance its senior notes due 2027.
    • RUN: Announces Pricing of Offering of $475 Million of Convertible Senior Notes.
    • SMCI: Announces Pricing of Private Offering of $1.5 Billion of Convertible Senior Notes Due 2029.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • EVH: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Class A Common Stock.
    • PRTA: Files ordinary share offering.
  • Direct Offering:
    • VERO: Announces $1.2 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • CIGI: Announces us$300 million bought deal public offering of equity.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ESNT: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering
    • LKQ: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • PCG: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • TWO: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • BMY: Announces Expiration of RayzeBio (RYZB) Tender Offer.
    • BWA: Recommends Stockholders Reject the Below Market Mini-Tender Offer by TRC Capital Investment Corporation.
    • SQNS: Renesas announces termination of Memorandum of Understanding and tender offer for proposed acquisition of Sequans.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • GPN: Filed Form S-3ASR.. $1,500,000,000 1.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2029 and any Common Stock issuable upon conversion.
    • PSN: $800 Million Convertible Senior Note Offering.
    • EFSH: Announces $1.95 Million Repayment of Convertible Notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • TBIO: +100% EU Patent 
    • TPHS: +55% Form SC 13D Filed 
    • LUNR: +50% Lands succesfully on moon 
    • MRVI: +25% Earnings 
    • CVNA: +22% Earnings 
    • SQ: +13% Earnings 
    • RKT: +7% Earnings 
    • SNBR: +6% Earnings 
    • LZ: +6% Earnings 
    • SFM: +5% Earnings
    • AAOI: -33% Earnings 
    • CRGE: -33% Decision of Nasdaq Hearings Panel To Delist Common Shares
    • INDI: -15% Earnings 
    • VICR: -15% Earnings 
    • ARDX: -10% Earnings 
    • MELI: -9% Earnings 
    • BKNG: -9% Earnings 
    • IRTC: -8% Earnings 
    • BOOM: -7.5% Earnings  
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: MELI, CVNA, SQ, PODD, LYV, INTU, BKNG (CNBC)
    • Discover Financial Services (DFS): Capital One (COF) deal for DFS has a $1.4 billion breakup fee, but none if regulators kill deal. (CNBC)
    • Nextdoor (KIND) up over +20% after the Board discusses replacing CEO or finding a buyer. (TheInformation)
    • Block (SQ) shares surge as much as 14% after company announces surprise profit. (CNBC)
    • Reddit Is Moving Ahead With IPO After Two Years on Sidelines. (Bloomberg)
    • Intuit’s (INTU) stock dips despite big earnings beat, revenue in line with analyst estimates. (MarketWatch)
    • Summers Warns Markets May Be Underpricing the Risk of Disorder. (Bloomberg)
    • Builders FirstSource (BLDR) CEO says housing demand is ‘really strong’. (CNBC)
    • Fed’s Waller wants more evidence inflation is cooling before cutting rates. (CNBC)
    • Boeing (BA) awarded $405 million U.S. Air Force contract.
    • JPMORGAN raises year-end rate targets: “.. 2y YE forecast from 3.25% to 3.80%; 10y YE forecast from 3.65% to 3.80%. .. treasury yields will likely stay more elevated with a higher risk premium to reflect higher probability of fewer cuts over time”; (ii) “the January FOMC minutes give no sense of an urgency to imminently taper QT.” (CQ CNBC)
    • JPM DESK: “.. yields have increased more than 45bp over the last three weeks .. Will the divergence between bonds and equities continue? .. we may see further decoupling .. since the Mag7 are proving to deliver on earnings expectations irrespective of the .. rate environment.” (CQ CNBC)
    • Goldman Sachs now expects First Fed rate cut to be in June 2024 instead of May. Goldman’s analysts, adjusting to Waller’s cautious stance, now predict four 25 basis-point cuts this year, a reduction from their initial six-cut expectation. This shift aligns with the Fed’s January minutes, highlighting a preference for “greater confidence” in inflation’s decline toward the 2% target before considering rate reductions. Market expectations have adapted, with the FedWatch Tool indicating anticipation for the first cut in June.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • ABB Ltd (ABBNY) appoints Morten Wierod to succeed Björn Rosengren as CEO.
    • American Homes 4 Rent (AMH) announces that David P. Singelyn, who has served as Chief Executive Officer since the Company’s inception, has announced his intent to retire at year end.
    • Fannie Mae (FNMA) Appoints Peter Akwaboah as Chief Operating Officer.
    • Helmerich & Payne (HP) announces that Mark W. Smith, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, has informed the Company of his intention to retire.
    • MSA Safety (MSA) elects Steve Blanco CEO as Part of planned management succession.
    • Newell Brands (NWL) designates independent director Bridget Ryan Berman as the next Chair of the Board.
    • RE/MAX Holdings (RMAX) announces that Amy Lessinger is being promoted to President of RE/MAX.
    • SunCoke Energy (SXC) anounces that Michael Rippey intends to retire as CEO.
    • ZK International (ZKIN) Receives Nasdaq Notices Regarding Listing Deficiency.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Barings BDC (BBDC) increases share buyback authorization by $30 million.
    • Banco Latinoamer  (BLX) Announces $50,000,000 Common Stock Repurchase Plan. (see Dividends)
    •  Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) Announces $350 Million Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • First Majestic Silver (AG) entered into equity distribution agreement having an aggregate offering price of up to US$150,000,000.
    • CGI Group (GIB) announces intent to repurchase 1.67 million of its shares.
    • Nextdoor (KIND) approves $150 million increase to existing share repurchase authorization.
    • Tucows (TCX) Announces $40 Million Stock Buyback Program.
    • World Acceptance (WRLD) approved a share repurchase program authorizing the Company to repurchase up to $30.0 million of its outstanding common stock.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Banco Latinoamer (BLX) raises quarterly dividend to $0.50 per share from $0.25 per share in Q3.
    • BankUnited (BKU) increases quarterly cash dividend 7.4% to $0.29 per share from $0.27 per share.
    • Booking Holdings (BKNG) declared a quarterly cash dividend of $8.75 per share.
    • Cohen & Steers (CNS) increases quarterly cash dividend 3.5% to $0.59 per share from $0.57 per share.
    • COPT Defense Properties (CDP) increases quarterly cash dividend 3.5% to $0.295 per share from $0.285 per share.
    • Coterra Energy (CTRA) approved a quarterly base dividend of $0.21 per share, which is a 5% increase year-over-year.
    • Crown (CCK) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.25 per share from $0.24 per share.
    • Essex Property (ESS) increases quarterly dividend to $2.45 per share from $2.31 per share.
    • Hub Group (HUBG) declares a quarterly cash dividend of $0.125 per share.
    • Lamar Advertising (LAMR) increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.30 per share from $1.25 per share.
    • Meritage (MTH) increases quarterly dividend to $0.75 per share from $0.27 per share.
    • NewMarket (NEU) increases quarterly cash dividend 11% to $2.50 per share from $2.25 per share.
    • Olympic Steel (ZEUS) increases dividend by 20%.
    • Prologis (PLD) increases quarterly cash dividend 10% to $0.96 per share from $0.87 per share.
    • Red River Bancshares (RRBI) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.09 per share from $0.08 per share.
    • Unity Bancorp (UNTY) increases quarterly cash dividend 8% to $0.13 per share from $0.12 per share.
    • Universal Display (OLED) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.40 per share from $0.35 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +2, Dow Jones +53 , NASDAQ -13, and Russell 2000 -5.  (as of 8:00 a.m. EST).  Asia is higher and Europe is higher ex the FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.80 from 14.78 yesterday morning.  Gold is higher while Silver and Copper are lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower along with Natural Gas for a second day in a row. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.329% from 4.311% yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $50,940 from $51,639 higher by -1.81% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Financial, Healthcare, Industrials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Financial, and Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Healthcare, Financial of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Healthcare, Communication Services of note.

A record jump in Nvidia (NVDA) shares turbocharged excitement about Artificial Intelligence on Thursday, jolting markets around the world and powering major indexes on three continents to all-time highs.  The chip manufacturer’s shares surged 16% to $785.38—their highest level since the company started trading in 1999—a day after it turned in another quarter of blockbuster results. Its $277 billion gain in market value, more than what mobile-phone-chip maker Qualcomm is currently worth, marked the largest one-day market-cap gain on record for a U.S. company.  Stocks darted higher shortly after the opening bell and gains accelerated later in the trading day, sending the S&P 500 was up 2.1%, its 12th record of 2024. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite leapt around 3%, outperforming its peers and notching its biggest one-day jump in a year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average topped 39,000 for the first time, boosted by shares of Microsoft and Salesforce.   (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: AER +2.78, H +0.26, DCBO +0.13, RBA +0.10, BLMN +0.06, FYBR +0.06, HBM +0.06, SHO +0.03 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: SSP (3.32), CLMT (0.40), TAC (0.37), GTN (0.08), NWN (0.06), WBD (0.05) of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: SFM, SPXC, MRVI, EVH, KIND of note.
  • Negative Guidance: ACCO, HCAT, FOXF, MODV, LAW, ALTR, LASR, RMAX, CHUY, PODD, AAOI, NE, INDI, WTRG, BLMN, GTN of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: CVNA +29%, MRVI +16%, SQ +16%, EVH +11%, SNBR +11%, KIND +10%, KIND +10%, PRTA +10%, UVE +10%, LZ +10%, TVTX +7%, EXFY +7%, SFM +6%, FLNC +6%, FTAI +6%, RKT +6%, BLX +4%, ZEUS +4%, RMNI +4%, HBM +4%, SEM +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: AAOI -41%, SQNS -29%, ARDX -16%, INDI -15%, VICR -14%, FOXF -14%, MODV -13%, ACCO -10%, BKNG -9%, MELI -8%, IRTC -7%, OLED -6%, PEN -6%, SMCI -6%, CPRT -6%, HCAT -5%, PODD -5%, GDYN -5%, CIGI -4%, NE -4% of note.

Insider Action: HPP sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Top Fed Officials Bolster Case For Patient Stance on Rate Cuts. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: AT&T (T) Wireless outage triggered by company work on network expansion. (Bloomberg)
  • Officials meet in Paris to discuss a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. (NYT)
  • US Futures pause after record-busting rally: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Block (SQ) formerly known as Square up 14% on surprise profit. (CNBC)
  • Elliott Associates to spend $1 billion on mining assets. (FT)
  • Bloomberg: Merryn Talks Markets:  The “Soft Landing” skeptics are still out there. (Podcast)
  • NY Times Daily:  Trump’s cash crunch. (Podcast)
  • Marketplace:  Amazon to join the Dow, VCs steer about from Chinese startups and Rivian’s cold EV winter. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion:  Digitial Gold Rush with Anthony Scaramucci and guest Dan Tapiero. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Big leap to 94% from 62%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President, The Vice President and The First Lady welcome the nation’s governors to the White House during the National Governors Association Winter Meeting by 7:00 am et], 10:45 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:30 p.m. EST
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing; The Vice President attends, 1:45 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity and News: None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Piper Sandler TSLP Biology Day
    • Renmark Virtual Non-Deal Roadshow Series
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: ENCP NCPL RSLS SPRY
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: COGT, CSCO, LIPO
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Academy of Allergy Asthma & Immunology
    • Inaugural Creative Disruptors in the Desert Conference
    • Tandem Meetings of ASTCT and CIBMTR
        • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
          • Aesthetic & Anti-Aging Medicine World Congress (AMWC) Americas
          • Consumer Analyst Group of New York (CAGNY) conference
          • Congress of the European Crohn’s and Colitis Organisation (ECCO)
          • National Neonatology Meetings

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: