CAPIS Morning Note – 02/23/22: Russian Invasion of Ukraine Remains Top Story. Futures Rebound But Will They Hold?

Overnight Summary:  Futures are higher this morning on the S&P 500 but off their highs. Futures ran up tp 4345 at 5:00 a.m. EST and are now at 4323 at 7:20 a.m. EST. Asia is higher ex Japan and Europe is higher. Earnings Out After The Close: Beats: BCC +2.01, MAXR +0.88, TDOC +0.47, RDN…

Overnight Summary:  Futures are higher this morning on the S&P 500 but off their highs. Futures ran up tp 4345 at 5:00 a.m. EST and are now at 4323 at 7:20 a.m. EST. Asia is higher ex Japan and Europe is higher.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: BCC +2.01, MAXR +0.88, TDOC +0.47, RDN +0.38, FANG +0.27, VNOM +0.18, MTDR +0.18, ROG +0.17, NDSN +0.16, EPR +0.15, HCC +0.10, CWH +0.10, LPI +0.09, PANW +0.09, TOL +0.09, WK +0.09, PSA +0.09, TXRH +0.08, BLKB +0.07, VRSK +0.06, AGR +0.06, CSGP +0.06, GKOS +0.06, O +0.06, CERN +0.05, SPCE +0.05, ACC +0.04, CDNS +0.04, A +0.03, HTGC +0.03, RNG +0.02, CUTR +0.02, KTOS +0.02, SPT +0.02, BWXT +0.02, BTG +0.01, ESI +0.01, HALO +0.01, RXT +0.01, PGRE +0.01.
  • Flat: INDI +0.00, PCOR +0.00.
  • Misses: MELI (2.13), CZR (1.24), PTCT (0.48), EXAS (0.40), MOS (0.22), JBT (0.21), PUMP (0.19), OSPN (0.16), PEN (0.12), TBLA (0.11), RIG (0.07), HIMS (0.05), TNDM (0.05), NHI (0.04), RRC (0.02), SHO (0.02), PEB (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: SWK of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • OCGN: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock 15.973 million shares. Cantor bookmanager.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • FLR: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • IBM files mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • ABBV: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Debt Securities.
    • GTY: $225 Million Private Placement of Senior Unsecured Notes.
    • SWK: Pricing of Notes Offering.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: SKIN +13%, HIMS +13%, MELI +10%, CDNS +9%, VRSK +7%, VRSK +7%, MAXR +7%, FUV +6%, NU +6%, PANW+6%, INDI +5%, RRC +4%, EPR +4%, CZR +4%, VNOM +4%.
    • Trading Down: CSGP -20%,  RXT -13%, MRNS -12%, OCGN -12%, WK -10%, TDOC -6%, API -5%, MOS -5%.
  • News After The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours:  PANW, SPCE, MOS, RRC  (CNBC)
    • Secretary of State Blinken will not meet with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. (CNBC)
    • Bearish Bets Against Markets Are Surging (WSJ)
    • Activision (ATVI) to delay Next Year’s Planned Call of Duty Game (Bloomberg)
    • CVS Health (CVS) picks up Louisiana Medicaid contract for its Aetna unit.
    • CNH Industrial (CNHI) updates 2024 strategic plan and presents three year financial targets.
    • Flight attendants believe extension for mask mandate for airplanes is in the works (Bloomberg).
    • Elon Musk accuses Biden of ignoring Tesla (TSLA), but says he would ‘do the right thing’ if invited to White House (CNBC)
    • Sterling Construction (STRL) awarded projects totaling $160 million during Q4 in Specialty Services segment.
    • 13 F filings out from hedge fund managers including: None of note.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Diamondback Energy (FANG) announces leadership appointments and promotions, effective immediately. Travis Stice will assume the role of Chairman of the Board of Directors of Diamondback and will remain in his current role as CEO.  Kaes Van’t Hof, currently CFO and Executive VP of Business Development, has been appointed President. Daniel Wesson, currently Executive VP of Operations, has been appointed COO of Diamondback.
    • ErosSTX (ESGC) Receives NYSE Extension for Delayed Annual Report and Regains Compliance with NYSE Minimum Trading Price Requirement.
    • EchoStar (SATS) appoints Hamid Akhavan as CEO, effective March 31.
    • Ingles Markets (IMKTA) will replace Ronald B. Freeman (retiring) and promotes Patricia (Pat) E. Jackson to CFO, effective February 23.
    • Marrone Bio (MBII) Announces CFO Transition.
    • Pangea Logistics Solutions (PANL) appoints Mads Boye Petersen COO, effective April 1.
    • Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) announces that Rob Weisbord has been elevated to COO of the corporation and President of Broadcast.
    • TrueCar (TRUE) appoints Jantoon Reigersman as COO.
    • Vishay Intertechnology (VSH) Announces CEO Retirement at end of 2022 and Succession Plan where Joel Smejkal to become president and Jeff Webster to become COO.
    • View (VIEW) receives notice of delisting from the Nasdaq.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • Agora, Inc. (API) Announces US $200 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Avanos Medical (AVNS) announces $30 million repurchase program.
    • Barclays PLC (BCS) intends to initiate a share buyback of up to GBP 1.0 billion.
    • Exponent (EXPO) Increases Share Repurchase Authorization by $150 Million.
    • Evercore (EVR) has authorized a share repurchase program of up to the lesser of $1.4 billion or 10 million shares of Evercore Inc. Class A common stock.
    • Gildan Activewear (GIL) gets approval for increased share repurchase by 10%.
    • LL Flooring Holdings (LL) increases authorization under existing share repurchase program by $35.3 million.
    • M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) Re-authorizes Common Stock Repurchase Program $800 million.
    • MOS New $1 billion share repurchase program to immediately follow completion of the current authorization.
    • RRC Authorization of $500 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • TJX announced a new $3 billion repurchase program.
    • WisdomTree (WETF) has authorized an $85.7 million increase to its existing stock repurchase program.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX) increases quarterly dividend $0.01  to $0.19 per share.
    • Amerisafe (AMSF) increases quarterly dividend $0.02 to $0.31 per share.
    • Assured Guaranty (AGO) increases quarterly dividend $0.03 to $0.25 per share.
    • Diamondback Energy (FANG) raises annual dividend to $2.40 per share, 20% increase.
    • Gildan Activewear (GIL) increases dividend to $0.169, a 10% increase.
    • Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) raises quarterly dividend to $0.38 per share, a 12% increase.
    • Mosaic (MOS) approved a regular dividend target increase to $0.60 per share annually from $0.45.
    • Primo Water (PRMW) increases quarterly dividend $0.01 to $0.07 per share.
    • Turning Point Brands (TPB) increases quarterly dividend $0.05 to $0.06 per.
    • Valmont (VMI) Announces 10% Dividend Increase to $0.55 per share.
    • Viper Energy Partners (VNOM) raises quarterly dividend 24%.
    • Whitestone REIT (WSR) increases monthly cash dividend to $0.04 per share.
    • Sinclair Broadcasting (SBGI) ups dividend to $0.25 from $0.22.
    • Range Resources (RRC) reinstates dividend.
    • TJX increases dividend by 13%.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +34, Dow Jones +232, NASDAQ +160,   and Russell 2000 +17.  Asia higher ex Japan and Europe higher. VIX Futures are at 27.30 from 28 yesterday morning. Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at 1.979% from 1.942% yesterday.  Bitcoin is at $39,045.01 from $37,644 at 2.80%. As of 8:17 a.m. EST

Tuesday’s Action – 02/22/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, Basic Materials, Energy of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Financial, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Financial of note.

SPX ended down 1.01% and hit “correction territory.”  Commodities were up across the board with Natty Gas up 1.69%.  Gold and TLT up a sliver.  Updated 02/22/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: BKNG, EBAY, ANSS, LYV, EXR, IR, AEM, NTAP, CTRA, VICI, PODD, HEI, BMRN, BBWI, WES, Y, FIVN, CHDN, STOR, GH, VAC, HTA, ARNA, CW, PAAS, IIPR, AMED, RVLV, FLS, LHCG, OGS, NARI, ORA, IRTC, STAA, GSHD, AGI, MANT, FIX, KW, FTI, HBM, NUVA, RCII, EPAY, NGVT, NVRO, RLJ, SPXC, UCTT, ONEM, MED, FLGT, ECPG, GBT, FRG, MGRC, SKLZ, BIRD, SNBR, FUBO, BAND, KALU, ALKT, DK, IAG, RGR, IMAX, CCRN, DRQ, AAN, OSUR, RMAX, ROOT, NDLS of note.
  • Thursday Before the Open: BABA, RY, BUD, AMT, NTES, KDP, NEM, AEP, EXC, CBRE, PEG, LNG, CQP, W, TFX, DISCA, PWR, IRM, NRG, NCLH, PLNT, NVCR, OGE, NTLA, DOCN, EME, SRCL, DDS, FCN, SHLX, ITCI, IONS, NOMD, GTLS, LXP, EXPI, PZZA, SAFM, EXLS, ATHM, ACIW, SIX, SHOO, PRFT, NVMI, KRTX, NKLA, IBP, CCOI, PCRX, SJI, AHCO, DCBO, HMHC, BALY, LNTH, AGIO, VCEL, WOW, SHYF, ECOL, HEES, BBIO, TNC, USPH, RCKT, HSC, IMOS, EDIT, CARS, SPTN, AMWD, TEN, NPTN, ACRS, BLI, ICPT, ZIXI, TNK, CGEN of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: MNDY +0.26, FYBR +0.25, TNL +0.24, BCO +0.22, CLH +0.21, OPCH +0.18, GIL +0.16, ODP +0.12, OMI +0.10, OSTK +0.10, KOP +0.10, LOW +0.09, ETR +0.09, RSKD +0.08, PLAB +0.07, AVNS +0.06, LIVN +0.05, NI +0.04, EVOP +0.04, AVA +0.04, HFC +0.03, SPNS +0.02, PSN +0.02, SSYS +0.02, NEO +0.01.
  • Flat: WWW 0.00, IART 0.00, DOC 0.00.
  • Misses: SBGI (1.90), BHC (0.96), TEN (0.65), VRT (0.24), DAN (0.22), ROCK (0.15), TUP (0.14), TJX (0.13), FDP (0.11), CSTM (0.10), TAP (0.05), LL (0.03), PRG (0.03).
  • Still to Report: JACK , MFA , VIPS.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: KTOS, CUTR, RNG, HIMS, CDNS, PANW, PCOR, TNDM, PEN, SKIN, AGR, EXAS, TBLA, SPT, PLAB, RSKD, AVNS, MNDY, OPCH, SSYS, IHRT.
  • Negative Guidance: RXT, OSPN, BLKB, PEB, CSGP, NDSN, API, IART, SPNS, OMI, DAN, BHC, PRG, NEO, ROCK.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 02/22/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: HIMS 17%, SKIN 13%, MYNZ 12%, OSTK 12%, MELI 10%, NU 9%, PANW 8%, VRSK 7%, HCC 7%, STLA 7%, PLAB 6%, CDNS 6%, INDI 6%, CZR 5%, RRC 5%, MAXR 5%, KTOS 4%, SPCE 4%, PCOR 4%.
  • Gap Down: KOD -61%, RXT -24%, CSGP -22%, OCGN -19%, PUMP -12%, WK -10%, VIPS -10%, MOS -5%, MRNS -5%.

Insider Action: PYPL sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 02/22/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TEN, LOW, TPWR, SPCE, PANW. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Covid cases at 61,359 cases from 109,999 with hospitalizations at 80,185  from 81,007. (CDC).
  • President Biden ends plan to meet with Russian President Putin. (The Hill)
  • Russian President Putin open to diplomatic solutions but Russian interests , i.e. Ukraine, are not negotiable.
  • Ukraine declares a 30 day state of emergency. (WSJ)
  • Biden Administration halts oil permits on federal lands despite gas price increases. (Bloomberg)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at impact of Russia invasion into Ukraine and affect on markets. Spotify (SPOT) launches device for cars without infotainment screens.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score flatlined at zero.  Updated 02/22/22 close.

 

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, 10:15 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 2:30 P.m. EST

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly speaks at 9:00 a.m. EST.

M&A Activity:

  • Belden (BDC) completes divestiture of Tripwire.
  • Century Casinos (CNTY) to acquire Nugget Casino Resort in Nevada.
  • Apollo (APO) to acquire Tenneco (TEN) for $20 a share.
  • Renewable Energy (REGI) up 19% on takeover rumors.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Aegis Virtual Conference 2022 (02/23/22-02/25/22)
    • Bank of America’s Annual HCIT and Digital Health Conference 2022
    • Barclays Industrial Select Conference (02/23/22-02/24/22)
    • Citi Virtual Healthcare Conference 2022 (02/23/22-02/24/22)
    • RBC Capital Markets Global Environmental, Social and Governance Conference 2022 (02/23/22-02/24/22)
    • Wells Fargo Real Estate Securities Conference 2022 (02/23/22-02/24/22)
    • Wolfe Research Global Auto, Auto Tech, and Mobility Conference 2022 (02/23/22-02/24/22)
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Baird Sustainability Conference (02/22/22-02/23/22)
        • Citigroup Global Industrial Tech and Mobility Conference (02/22/22-02/24/22)
        • Goldman Sachs European Digital Economy, Technology & Internet Conference 2022 (02/22/22-02/25/22)
  • Company Meetings: BEN, DE.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BECN, CALX, CMI, RNTX, SES, XRX, NVTS.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: PSTX.
  • Company Event: MRK.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Congress of Neurological Surgeons Spine Summit 2022 (02/23/22-02/26/22)
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference (CAGNY) 2022 (02/22/22-02/25/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

      

Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades: