CAPIS Morning Note – 02/22/22: Russia Makes Land Grab For Two Regions In Ukraine, Futures Volatile

Overnight Summary: Stocks are lower from Friday’s close on the S&P 500 at 4348.87. Overnight futures hit 4250 at 6:40 p.m. EST and have rallied back to 4337.75 now down only by -5.75 or 0.02%. Asia was lower and Europe is mixed with Germany lower and the FTSE and CAC higher. Earnings Out After The…

Overnight Summary: Stocks are lower from Friday’s close on the S&P 500 at 4348.87. Overnight futures hit 4250 at 6:40 p.m. EST and have rallied back to 4337.75 now down only by -5.75 or 0.02%. Asia was lower and Europe is mixed with Germany lower and the FTSE and CAC higher.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: PRA +0.43, MTW +0.24, UIS +0.14, NEX +0.10, DOOR +0.07, LXFR +0.05, WMB +0.05.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: APA (0.17), HSTM (0.04), PLOW (0.02).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • SMFL: Closing of $14.4 Million Initial Public Offering.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CLLS: Pricing of Offering Of Common Stock and Warrants and Updates Business and Risk Factor Disclosure.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CYH: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • IVR: Filed Form S-3ASR Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • NOVN: Filed Form S-3.. $150Million Mixed Security Shelf.
    • RPT: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: KPTI 41%, TSEM 39%, ANGH 36%, RYTM 31%, VC 28%, SABR 25%, MRC 24%, COLL 24%, BLBD 21%, CMBM 18%, KAR 17%, BKD 17%, ABG 15%, THS 15%, CENX 14%, SFL 13%, AMKR 12%.
    • Trading Down: AMPL -53%, MASI -33%, ROKU -31%, SENS -29%, DKNG -26%, RBLX -26%, TRHC -23%, RDFN -23%, SHOP -23%, SAGE -21%, CROX -19%, LZB -19%, ERIC -19%, BPMC -19%, RBBN -19%, OMCL -18%, MEDP -18%, PEGA -16%, LOVE -15%, TRUP -14%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Putin launches nuclear drills involving the test-firing of ballistic and cruise missiles amid rising tensions along the Ukraine border.
    • Elon Musk’s Accusation of Harassment Countered by SEC. TSLA. (WSJ)
    • Siemens AG Healthcare Diagnostics (SIEGY) awarded $370 million Army contract.
    • Allarity Therapeutics (ALLR) Receives Refusal to File Letters from U.S. FDA.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks That Defined the Week: MAR, MMM, DIS, CSCO, SPLK, KHC, WMT, DASH.  (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: A Step Toward Data Privacy.  (NYT)
    • White House Security Adviser Jake Sullivan: Russia planning ‘extremely violent’ operation to ‘crush’ Ukraine. (The Hill)
    • White House weighs measures to stabilize gas prices if Russian hostilities over Ukraine send costs skyrocketing. (Washington Post)
    • FDA Eyes Second Covid-19 Booster Shot. (WSJ)
    • Beijing sanctions Lockheed (LMT), Raytheon (RTX) again over Taiwan arms sales. (Reuters)
    • Volkswagen Is in Advanced Talks on Potential Porsche IPO. (Bloomberg)
    • Federal Research Board of Governors Michelle Bowman:
      • Closely watching data over coming weeks. Too soon to tell if Fed needs a 50bps hike at March meeting.
      • Tight Labor Markets Could Keep Upward Pressure on Wages — WSJ *Bowman: Watching Data to Judge Appropriate Size of March Rate Rise *Bowman: Fed Should Begin Shrinking Asset Portfolio in Coming Months *Bowman: Additional Rate Rises Likely Warranted After March Meeting.
      • Supports raising rates at the March meeting; Forceful action is needed.
    • Barron’s:
      • Positive View: ETD, DASH, DD.
      • Negative View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AVANGRID (AGR) announces Patricia Cosgel as interim CFO.
    • AngloGold Ashanti (AU) announced that CFO Christine Ramon will take an early retirement June 30th of this year.
    • Kilroy Realty (KRC) Announces Transition of Chief Financial Officer.
    • Kraft Heinz (KHC) to appoint CEO Miguel Patricio to Chair of the Board.
    • Karyopharm Therapeutics (KPTI) announces departure of Jatin Shah, M.D., as Chief Medical Officer.
    • Manitowoc (MTW) CFO David Antoniuk to retire May 2.
    • Meridian Bioscience (VIVO) appoints Andy Kitzmiller as CFO.  Kitzmiller comes from Hillenbrand, Inc.
    • Nikola Corporation (NKLA) appoints Michael Lohscheller as President of Nikola Moto.
    • Puxin Limited (NEW) Announces Regain Compliance with NYSE Minimum Price Requirement.
    • RBB Bancorp’s (RBB) CEO Alan Thian to take leave of absence immediately.  Board appoints current CFO David Morris as interim CEO.
    • Vintage Wine Estates (VWE) Announces Voluntary Delisting from Toronto Stock Exchange.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • Aon (AON) Announces Additional $7.5 Billion Share Repurchase Authorization.
    • Macy’s (M) New $2 billion share repurchase program authorized after completing current $500 million program.
    • Vontier (VNT) has entered into a $250 million accelerated share repurchase agreement with Citibank.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • The Aaron’s Company (AAN) raise cash dividend to $0.1125 per share, a 12.5% increase.
    • Aon (AON) Announces 10% Increase to Quarterly Cash Dividend to $0.56 per share.
    • Camping World (CWH) Announces 25% Regular Dividend Increase and Declares Quarterly Dividend to $0.625 per share.
    • The Home Depot ( HD) Increases Quarterly Dividend by 15% to $1.90.
    • Warrior Met Coal (HCC) raises quarterly dividend by 20% to $0.06 per share.
    • Hercules Capital (HTGC) announces $0.60 per share supplemental dividend.
    • KBR announced an increase to its quarterly dividend to $0.12 per share.
    • Macy’s (M) raised quarterly dividend by 5%.
    • Tempur Sealy (TPX) Announces Increase In First Quarter Cash Dividend by $0.01 to $0.10 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -5, Dow Jones -62, NASDAQ -76,   and Russell 2000 -0.33 .  Asia lower and Europe higher. VIX Futures are at 28 from 26.85 Friday morning. Gold lower with Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at 1.942% from 1.972%  Friday.  Bitcoin is at $37,644 from $40,455  at -1.52%. As of 8:12 a.m. EST

Friday’s Action – 02/18/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Absolutely none of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: All, with Communication Services, Technology , Consumer Cyclical taking the brunt of the selling Friday.
  • One Month Winners: Energy and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Financial, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Financial of note.

Tension continues to hold the markets in paralysis.  All indexes and equity sectors were down Friday waiting for diplimotic resolution, which never came.  TLT jumped 1.05% to 138.23.  Updated 02/18/22 close.

  

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: PSA, MELI, PANW, A, CDNS, O, VRSK, CSGP, FANG, CZR, MOS, RNG, EXAS, NDSN, TDOC, PCOR, PEN, ACC, TOL, TXRH, WK, MTDR, HALO, VNOM, RDN, JBT, BTG, SPT, BWXT, EPR, BLKB, BCC, PEB, PTCT, RXT, GKOS, SHO, NHI, RIG, SPCE, KTOS, HTGC, MAXR, PGRE, TBLA, INDI, PUMP, LPI, HIMS, CUTR, OSPN of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: LOW, TJX, ETR, NI, TAP, MNDY, BHC, UTHR, VRT, GIL, VIPS, HFC, IART, TNL, CLH, OPCH, LIVN, BCO, DAN, PSN, OMI, AVA, CSTM, PRG, ODP, SBGI, WWW, OSTK, EVOP, JACK, MFA, SSYS, ROCK, SPNS, AVNS, FDP, PLAB, TUP, KOP, BLUE, LL, EPZM of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DDS +5.23, NXST +1.28, ESPR +0.52, M +0.46, WLK +0.38, LPX +0.25, NPO +0.23, BLD +0.20, TPB +0.15, MIDD +0.08, CNP +0.08, AWI +0.04, FLR +0.04, KBR +0.04, NSA +0.03, HD +0.03, CFX +0.01.
  • Flat: HL +0.00, HR +0.00, MDT +0.00, ICLR +0.00.
  • Misses: ETRN (0.30), TRU (0.11), TPX (0.08), JELD (0.06), DORM (0.02), DNUT (0.01).
  • Still to Report: CBRL , EXPD , SMP.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: NEX, JELD, NPO, TPX, FLR, M, DORM, NSA, CBRL.
  • Negative Guidance: HSTM, MTW, PLOW, TRU, DNUT.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 02/18/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: DWAC +28%, OCGN +16%, HMHC +15%, TRU +6%, MRO +5%, OIH +4%.
  • Gap Down: FIXX -36%, RSX -13%, ADGI -9%, UIS -4%, VWE -4%.

Insider Action: UGI, PHAT, RSG sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. MACK sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 02/18/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: HD, M, , SOFI, TPX, MDT, HMHC. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Covid cases at 108,159 cases from 170,582 with hospitalizations at 80,185  from 86,401. (CDC).
  • Russia claims two breakaway regions, Donetsk and Luhansk, of Ukraine are now part of Russia. Will be sending in “peacekeeping forces”. (NYT)
  • Ukraine crisis: Germany halts Nord Stream 2 approval (DW)
  • President Biden may meet with Russian President Biden if there is no invasion into Ukraine.
  • White House to take further restrictions on Russia today.
  • U.K. Prime Minister Johnson announces a return to normal with Covid restrictions to be removed.
  • Iran Nuclear Deal could be completed in the next few days. (WSJ)
  • China may announce more restrictions on tech sector. (Bloomberg)
  • White House may consider another release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. (The Washington Post)
  • White House announces major investments to expand domestic critical minerals supply chain.
  • Olympics had the lowest ratings ever. (WSJ)
  • Carnival Cruise Lines (CCL) will not require masks as of March 1 rather will be recommended.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score flatlines at zero…..again!  Updated 02/18/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, 10:15 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 2:00 P.m. EST
    • The President hosts a virtual event announcing progress on securing critical mineral supply chains, powering clean energy manufacturing, and creating good-paying jobs; Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm, National Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks, and California Governor Gavin Newsom also attend, 3:30 P.m. EST

Economic: 

  • Redbook Sales 8:55  a.m. EST
  • December S&P Case Schiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EST and came in last month at 18.3%.
  • FHFA House Price Index 9:00 a.m. EST
  • PMI Composite Flash  9:45 a.m. EST
  • February Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 109 from 113.80.
  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index 10:00 a.m. EST
  • Money Supply   1:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostinc 1:30 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • BrightView (BV) acquires Salt Lake City-based commercial landscaping firm Intermountain Plantings.
  • Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Announces Definitive Agreement to Acquire Substantially All of the Assets of Peninsula Pacific Entertainment for $2.485 billion.
  • Centerra Gold (CGAU) announces acquisition of the Goldfield District Development Project in Nevada.
  • Cummins (CMI) to Acquire Meritor (MTOR).
  • Gold Royalty (GROY) acquires royalty on portion of IAMGOLD’s (IAG) Côté Gold Project in Ontario for $15.875 million.
  • Houghton Mifflin Harcourt (HMHC) to be acquired by Veritas Capital for $21.00 per share cash.
  • KKR (KKR) to Acquire Majority Stake in Refresco.
  • M&T Bank (MTB) and People’s United Financial (PBCT) extend merger agreement to June 1, 2022 from February 21st.
  • Northwest Natural (NWN) signs two agreements to acquire utilities in Southeast Texas.
  • RumbleOn (RMBL) Completes Acquisition of Freedom Powersports.
  • SoFi Technologies, Inc. (SOFI) Announces Agreement to Acquire Technisys.
  • TEGNA (TGNA) to be Acquired by Standard General for $24.00 Per Share.
  • Verisk Analytics (VRSK) has entered into a definitive agreement to sell Verisk Financial Services to TransUnion (TRU) for $515 million in cash.
  • Cummins (CMI) to buy Meritor (MTOR) for $36.50 in cash.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Baird Sustainability Conference (02/22/22-02/23/22)
    • Barclays Industrial Select Conference
    • Bernstein Crypto and Digital Currencies Conference
    • B. Riley Securities Radiation Oncology Investor Day 2022 
    • Citigroup Global Industrial Tech and Mobility Conference (02/22/22-02/24/22)
    • Daiwa Annual Tokyo Investment Conference
    • Goldman Sachs European Digital Economy, Technology & Internet Conference 2022 (02/22/22-02/25/22)
    • Jefferies Decarbonising Steel Summit.
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Company Meetings: OSK.
  • Fireside Chat: WKME (hosted by Citi).
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: CARR, CNHI, HL, LFMD, WMB.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: VWDRY.
  • Company Event: ST (Teach in Event), CNHI.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Consumer Analyst Group of New York Conference (CAGNY) 2022 (02/22/22-02/25/22).
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • None of note

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

      

Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades: