CAPIS Morning Note – 02/21/24: All Eyes on Nvidia Earnings

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by 29.58 points which is -0.60% at 4975.99 from Friday lower by -0.48% at 5005.57. The overnight high was hit at 4993 at 4:05 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4976 at 4:05 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 17 points as of 7:25…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by 29.58 points which is -0.60% at 4975.99 from Friday lower by -0.48% at 5005.57. The overnight high was hit at 4993 at 4:05 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4976 at 4:05 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 17 points as of 7:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 21.45 from 22.65.  The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-December. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -8.75 points at 7:25 a.m

Executive Summary: Well it comes down to Nvidia’s earnings for the future of the Magnificant Seven which will be reported after the close. Volatility is on the rise. The S&P 500 failed at 5000 again yesterday, its second failure this month. 4900 next?
  • The latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.
  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 12:30 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 1:00 p.m. EST

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: TX +0.95, CHK +0.60, ANDE +0.60, TOL +0.47, SEDG +0.42, MATX +0.27, MTDR +0.20, VNOM +0.19, PANW +0.16, MED +0.13, FLS +0.08, WK +0.08, PSA +0.06, GPK +0.05, NEO +0.05, TDOC +0.05, CWK +0.05, HALO +0.05, RNG +0.04, FANG +0.04, JBT +0.04, KEYS +0.04, KAR +0.03, GMED +0.02, NHI +0.02, SUI +0.02, SPT +0.02, CSGP +0.01, AMPL +0.01, ENVX +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: MTTR +0.00, AROC +0.00, INST +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: CYH (0.46), CZR (0.30), GFL (0.18), BCC (0.14), WSC (0.08), CE (0.07), ABCL (0.05), LZB (0.05), IFF (0.04), O (0.03), ESI (0.01) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Semiconductor company Astera Labs files S-1 for IPO; ticker, size, and pricing yet to be determined.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Bite Acquisition Corp. (BITE) Receives Commencement of Delisting Notice from the NYSE.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • WETH: Announces Pricing of $10.8 Million Public Offering of Common Stock and Concurrent Uplisting to the Nasdaq Capital Market.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • GPN: Prices offering of $1.75 billion of its 1.50% convertible senior notes due 2031.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • JFBR: Filed Form F-3.. Up to 24,071,742 Ordinary Shares.
    • MBOT: Filed Form S-1 – 1,005,965 Shares of Common Stock.
    • VTR: Amended ATM sales agreement to, among other things, increase the aggregate gross sales price of common stock available for issuance under the Sales Agreement to $1,000,000,000. (see Mixed Shelf)
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CIGI: FORM F-10 – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • KWE: Filed Form F-3.. US$100,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • MEIP: Filed Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • NRDS: Filed Form S-3.. $150,000,000.00 Mixed Shelf.
    • TAP: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • VTR: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • V: Files For Offering Of $1 Billion 5.500% Notes Due 2054 – Sec Filing.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • MOTS: +62% Patent 
    • AFIB: +33% Patent 
    • HALO: +4% Earnings 
    • BYON: +4% Earnings 
    • FLS: +3.5% Earnings 
    • ENVX: +2.5% Earnings 
    • PANW: -20% Earnings 
    • TDOC: -17% Earnings 
    • AMPL: -17% Earnings 
    • UCAR: -16% Receives Nasdaq Delisting Notification and Intends to Appeal
    • SEDG: -12% Earnings 
    • IFF: -8% Earnings 
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: PANW, CSGP, SEDG, TOL, FANG, TDOC, CHK (CNBC)
    • Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Plunges After Cutting Revenue Forecast. (Bloomberg)
    • SolarEdge’s (SEDG) stock plummets as company becomes latest poster child for solar industry’s problems. (MarketWatch)
    • fuboTV (FUBO) sues The Walt Disney Company (DIS), FOX Corp. (FOXA), Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) and affiliates for antitrust practices. (Bloomberg)
    • Nvidia (NVDA) faces a stiff test on Wall Street this week after ‘parabolic’ stock rally. (CNBC)
    • Amazon (AMZN) Executive Chair / Founder Jeff Bezos sold another 14 mln shares worth nearly $2.37 bln pursuant to a Rule 10b5-1 trading plan.
    • PANW was a brutal night for the bulls (and us). While we recognize this stock is in the penalty box, PANW is a core name in the cyber security sector to play the cloud/AI trends we see on the horizon. $375 PT, not throwing in the towel. Remain bullish. (Dan Ives)
    • NVDA: JPM DESK, “.. if Jensen’s GPU behemoth is able to report great numbers, and by ‘great’ I mean 4Q DC revs north of $20B with implied acceleration for Q1 .. stock might be fine.” However, “the bigger the beat on the guidance, the more the mkt is going to think that supply is getting better, and that there could be an inventory correction in 2H24.” CQ Cnbc
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Index Changes: Amazon (AMZN) to join Dow Jones Industrial Average (WBA out); Uber (UBER) to join Dow Jones Transportation Average (JBLU out) (WSJ)
    • Arvinas (ARVN) announces that CFO Sean Cassidy will be leaving the company, Randy teel to assume the role of interim CFO.
    • Boise Cascade (BCC) Announces Leadership Transitions.
    • BRKB: Warren Buffett’s annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders is coming at ~8 a.m. EST Saturday.
    • Compass Minerals (CMP) appoints Gordon Dunn as COO.
    • CoStar Group (CSGP) CFO Scott Wheeler to retire.
    • Empire State Realty Trust (ESRT) announces that COO & CFO Christina Chiu has been promoted to President.
    • Gibraltar Industries (ROCK) announces that Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Timothy F. Murphy has notified the Company of his intention to retire from the Company in early 2025.
    • Gray Television (GTN) CFO Jim Ryan to retire after 2025; Jeff Gignac announced as successor.
    • Jazz Pharmaceuticals (JAZZ) Appoints Philip Johnson as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Murphy USA (MUSA) Announces Executive Leadership Changes to Drive Next Wave of Advantaged Growth.
    • QuidelOrtho (QDEL) announces changes in executive leadership.
    • U Power Limited (UCAR) Receives Nasdaq Delisting Notification and Intends to Appeal.
    • Vir Biotechnology (VIR) announces that Chief Medical Officer, Phil Pang has decided to leave the company.
    • YETI Holdings (YETI) notified S. Faiz Ahmad, Senior Vice President, Chief Commercial Officer, that his employment with the Company would terminate.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Bread Financial (BFH) announces approval of $30 million share repurchase program.
    • Constellium (CSTM) authorizes share repurchase up to $300 million.
    • Flowserve’s (FLS) replenished the total share repurchase authorization under the current share repurchase program to $300 million. (see Dividends)
    • Halozyme (HALO) Board approved new $750 mln buyback.
    • Manulife Financial (MFC) receives approval for its NCIB permitting the repurchase of approximately 2.8% of its outstanding shares.
    • ZoomInfo (ZI) approved $500 million stock repurchase program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Bio-Path Holdings (BPTH) Announces 1-for-20 Reverse Stock SplitShares of Common Stock Will Begin Trading on a Split-Adjusted Basis on February 23, 2024.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Analog Devices (ADI) increases quarterly cash dividend 7% to $0.92 per share from $0.86 per share.
    • Assured Guaranty (AGO) increases quarterly dividend 11% to $0.31 per share from $0.28 per share.
    • Delek US Holdings (DK) raises quarterly dividend to $0.245 per share.
    • Flowserve’s (FLS) Board of Directors authorized a 5% increase in the quarterly cash dividend to $0.21.
    • Gildan Activewear (GIL) increases dividend by 10%.
    • Intl Flavors (IFF) cuts dividend approximately 50%.
    • Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) will recommend increasing first quarter 2024 dividend to $0.50 per share from $0.45 per share.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -13, Dow Jones -70, NASDAQ -108, and Russell 2000 -6.  (as of 8:00 a.m. EST).  Asia is lower while Europe is higher ex the FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are a 15.45 from 15.20 yesterday morning.  Gold higher with Silver lower and Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.264% from 4.27% yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and flat against the YenBitcoin is at $51,225 from $52,371 lower by -1.60% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, Energy, Healthcare, Industrials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Financial, and Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Healthcare, Financial of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Healthcare, Communication Services of note.

Nvidia’s (NVDA) highly anticipated earnings report hasn’t even landed yet, but investors retreated from the stock Tuesday at the fastest clip in months. That dragged the stock market into the red as well.  Declines were deepest in indexes that include the graphics chip maker, with the S&P 500 retreating 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite veering 0.9% lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which isn’t home to Nvidia, inched down 0.2%, or 64 points.  Investors are keying in on Nvidia’s earnings report Wednesday for clues about whether the artificial-intelligence-fueled frenzy that powered the market’s monster 2023 can continue. Although the three major stock indexes are back near record levels, all three posted declines last week. (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close:

  • Thursday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: CRSP +0.95, IONS +0.73, TNL +0.61, THRM +0.33, GRMN +0.32, UIS +0.31, WIX +0.18, DINO +0.15, CLH +0.13, LIVN +0.10, UTHR +0.08, SSTK +0.08, BLCO +0.07, WING +0.07, PHIN +0.06, OGE +0.04, ALIT +0.04, VRT +0.03, PRG +0.03, GIL +0.03, ADI +0.03, EXC +0.02, ROCK +0.01, WKME +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: RGEN +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: XPRO (0.26), CSTM (0.25), PUMP (0.23), KRP (0.13), AVA (0.06), VRSK (0.04), NI (0.02), WWW (0.02), GLBE (0.01), PLAB (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: AGI, MPW of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: HALO, NEO, INST, JBT, GFL, BLCO of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Update will return tomorrow!

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: NEO +14%, TX +6%, GFL +6%, WIX +6%, HALO +5%, QUAD +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: PANW -24%, TDOC -21%, CYH -18%, AMPL -15%, SEDG -15%, MED -11%, MTTR -11%, ESI -10%, SPT -9%, LZB -8%, IFF -8%, CSGP -8%, HSBC -8%, ANDE -7%, KEYS -7%, CE -6%, SBSW -6%, WSC -6%, RNG -5%, ENVX -5%, ADEA -4%, WES -4%, UTHR -4% of note.

Insider Action: CRMT, BIIB sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  HSBC Profits Sinks on $3 Billion Charge at Chinese Bank. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Play Video. (Bloomberg)
  • Biden Administration to forgive $1.2 billion in Student Debt for 150,000 borrowers. (CNBC)
  • Biden to sign Executive Order on port cybersecurity and Chinese cranes. (CNBC)
  • Mortgage demand takes a hit as rates move back above 7%. (CNBC)
  • Hedge Funds have started selling the Magnificant Seven shares. (Market Watch)
  • Bloomberg: Big Take: Inside the top hedge fund earners. (Podcast)
  • NY Times Daily: What happens if America turns its back on Europe? (Podcast)
  • Marketplace:  Want to quit your smartphone? (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Uranium and Oil with Rick Rule. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Update will return tomorrow!


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing (10:00 AM Local), 1:00 p.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks (12:45 PM Local), 3:45 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Los Angeles, California en route to San Francisco, California (2:00 PM Local), 5:00 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives in San Francisco, California (3:10 PM Local), 6:10 p.m. EST
    • The President departs San Francisco, California en route to San Francisco California (3:25 PM Local), 6:25 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives in San Francisco, California (3:40 PM Local), 6:40 p.m. EST
    • The President participates in a campaign reception (4:15 PM Local), 7:15 p.m. EST
    • The President participates in a campaign event (6:45 PM Local), 9:45 p.m. EST


  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
    • MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: -10.6%, Purchase: -10.1%, ReFi: -11.4%.
    • U.S MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate Actual: 7.06% VS 6.87% Previous.
    • U.S MBA Mortage Applications (WOW) Actual: -10.6% VS -2.3% Previous.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • The latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 12:30 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 1:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity and News

  • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) Acquires Michigan iGaming Operations from Wynn Resorts.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Barclays Industrials Select Conference
    • Citi Oncology Leadership Summit
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • BAC Financial Services Conference
        • Citi Global Industrial Tech and Mobility Conference
        • Winter Wrap Up MicroCap Rodeo Virtual Conference
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: HAYN LGVN MD
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ATH GPK OCGN
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Aesthetic & Anti-Aging Medicine World Congress (AMWC) Americas
    • Flagship Foundry Event
        • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
          • CAGNY Conference
          • Heart Valve Society Meeting
          • Western Veterinary Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: