CAPIS Morning Note – 02/15/23: Several Economic Releases Due Today Including Retail Sales and Industrial Production. Another Volatile Day Ahead?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.03% at 4136.13 in a wild trading session. Monday higher by 1.14% at 4137.2.  The overnight high of 4147 was hit at 4:05 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4120 at 3:20 a.m. EST, a range of ~27 points high to low.  At 7:30 a.m….

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.03% at 4136.13 in a wild trading session. Monday higher by 1.14% at 4137.2.  The overnight high of 4147 was hit at 4:05 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 4120 at 3:20 a.m. EST, a range of ~27 points high to low.  At 7:30 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was lower by -7 points which is -0.17%.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats:  WIRE +2.45, ANDE +0.49, MGY +0.40, CRK +0.24, UPST +0.22, ABNB +0.21, HLF +0.19, BL +0.18, OSUR +0.17, SCI +0.12, TRIP +0.12, AKAM +0.11, UDMY +0.07, ADPT +0.07, GXO +0.03, LTHM +0.03, NMIH +0.02  of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: DVN (0.09), CNDT (0.04), GDDY (0.03), TX (0.01) of note.

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

  

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • ENLT: Closing of its Initial Public Offering in the United States.
    • MYLS: Announces Closing of Initial Public Offering and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • ROC Energy Acquisition Corp. (ROC) Announces Filing of Registration Statement on Form S-4 in Connection with its Proposed Business Combination with Drilling Tools International.
    • Stratim Cloud Acquisition Corp. (SCAQ): Force Pressure Control announces LOI for combination with SCAQ.
    • Williams Rowland Acquisition Corp. (WRAC) To Transfer Listing To NYSE American.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • TTOO: Announces Pricing of $12 Million Public Offering..
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ACTG: Commencement of Rights Offering.
    • DGLY: Form RW Filed – Company hereby requests that the Commission consent to the withdrawal of the Registration Statement.
    • EMKR: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (AGP Bookmanager)
    • IONM: Filed Form S-1.. 1,500,000 Shares Common Stock.
    • MEDP: See Mixed Shelf
    • RNAZ: Filed Form RW.
    • RXST: Announces Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares and Closing of its Public Offering of Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • VAPO: Announces Closing of $23 Million Private Placement.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CLF: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • MEDP: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf AND 7,289,662 Shares Common Stock.
    • MULN: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • UDR: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: OSUR +17%, ABNB +10%, SMWB +9%, TRIP +8%, NU +8%, HLF +5%, RBBN +4%, CRK +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: CRDO -48%, POWW -14%, UDMY -9%, TX -6%, CNDT -5%, DVN -5%, TSM -4% of note.
  • News After The Close:   
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: ABNB, TRIP, DVN, GDDY (CNBC)
    • President Biden named Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Lael Brainard as Director of the National Economic Council & Jared Bernstein as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.  Federal Resesrve Says Lael Brainard Submitted Resignation As Vice Chair. (CNBC)
    • Airbnb (ABNB) Puts Worries to Bed for Now with a strong earnings beat. (WSJ)
    • Herbalife (HLF) stock bounces back even as earnings and revenue continue to decline. (MarketWatch)
    • Senate Democrats Seek to Quadruple Stock Buyback Tax in New Bill. (Bloomberg)
    • Matthew Luzzetti, Chief US economist at Deutsche Bank, forecasts the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points at its next four meetings, reaching a peak of 5.5% to 5.75% in July. (Nick Timiraos WSJ Tweet)
    • Udemy (UDMY) to reduce global workforce by approximately 10%.
    • BAE Systems (BAESY) awarded $466 million U.S. Army contract modification.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) Receives Nasdaq Extension to Meet Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
    • Bed Bath Beyond (BBBY): Marjorie Bowen Voluntarily Resigned From Board.
    • Bausch Lomb (BLCO) to Name Brent Saunders CEO.
    • Electromed (ELMD) Announces Chief Executive Officer Retirement and Succession Plan.
    • FSD Pharma (HUGE) Regains Compliance with NASDAQ Continued Listing Requirements.
    • Hillstream BioPharma (HILS) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Listing Minimum Bid Price Rule.
    • HIVE Blockchain (HIVE) Announces Late Filing of Interim Financial Statements.
    • Lee Enterprise (LEE )receives Nasdaq notice for delay in quarterly report filing.
    • Newmont Goldcorp (NEM) appoints Natascha Viljoen as COO.
    • Toro (TTC) announces that Renee J. Peterson, vice president and chief financial officer, plans to retire.
    • WalkMe Ltd. (WKME) appoints Hagit Ynon as permanent CFO.
    • Westport (WPRT) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Requirement.
  • Buyback Announcements or News:
    • Barrick (GOLD) Announces New $1 billion Share Buyback Program. (See Dividends)
    • TTD Announces $700 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Vinci Partners (VINP) Announces Share Buyback And Share Repurchase Plans.
    • WAB: Announced $750 Million Share Buyback Re-authorization.(See Dividends)
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • ATNX trading reverse split price.
    • CFRX trading reverse split price.
    • ECOR trading reverse split price.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Analog Devices (ADI) Raises Quarterly Dividend By 13% to $0.86 per share.
    • ARMOUR Residential REIT (ARR) lowers monthly dividend to $0.08 from $0.10 per share.
    • Auburn National Bancorp. (AUBN) increases quarterly dividend $0.015 to $0.27 per share.
    • Barrick (GOLD) declared of a dividend of $0.10 per share for the fourth quarter of 2022.
    • Boyd Gaming (BYD) increases quarterly dividend $0.01 to $0.16 per share.
    • Clorox (CLX) Declares Regular Quarterly Dividend of $1.18 Per Share.
    • Devon Energy (DVN) increased its fixed dividend 11%.
    • Group 1 Auto (GPI) increases quarterly dividend $0.06 to $0.45 per share.
    • Realty Income (O) increases monthly cash dividend to $0.2545 per share.
    • Ship Finance (SFL) Board of Directors has declared an increased quarterly cash dividend of $0.24 per share.
    • WAB: Announced 13% Increase in Quarterly Dividend.
    • Wash. Federal (WAFD) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.01 to $0.25 share.
    • XBiotech Financial (XBIT) Controller Angela Hu assumed the role as the Company’s principal financial officer and principal accounting office.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -12, Dow Jones -65,  NASDAQ -36, and Russell 2000 -11. (as of 7:58 a.m. EST).  Asia lower and Europe are higher. VIX Futures are at 20.25 from 21.85  Friday.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.759% from 3.692% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $22,767 from $21.830  yesterday, higher by  2.45%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Basic Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Utilities, Healthcare, Financial of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services of note.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower Tuesday after data showed inflation cooled, but remained hot enough to keep the Federal Reserve on track for further interest-rate increases.  The Dow lost 156.66 points, or 0.5%, to 34089.27. The broad-based S&P 500 was roughly flat, falling 1.16 points, or less than 0.1%, to 4136.13, erasing earlier gains.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was the outlier. It rose 68.36 points, or 0.6%, to 11960.15.  The U.S. consumer-price index showed annual inflation cooled for the seventh straight month to 6.4% last month, according to Labor Department data released Tuesday. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: 

  • Thursday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: BIIB +0.57, SAH +0.41, R +0.40, CHH +0.20, TMHC +0.16, AVNT +0.15, ADI +0.15, OC +0.14, HCSG +0.11, WAT +0.10, SFL +0.09, KHC +0.07, KRNT +0.06, CEVA +0.06, RBLX +0.06, SUN +0.06, WKME +0.04, NVMI +0.03, GNRC +0.03, TTD +0.02, WAB +0.02, GOLD +0.01, CHEF +0.01, CLBT +0.01, DNUT +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: HL +0.00, CIM +0.00, MLM +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: LAD (1.21), SITE (0.19), SABR (0.05), PSN (0.03) of note.
  • Still to Report: IDCC, TPG of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: FELE, OSUR, ABNB, TTD, CAL, ADI, R of note.
  • Negative Guidance: ADPT, UPST, LTHM, GDDY, UDMY, BL, CNDT, CRDO, SMWB, ABST, DNUT, KHC, WKME, KRNT, SABR of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: OSUR +15%, EBS +10%, ABNB +9%, TRIP +9%, SMWB +8%, NU +7%, TTD +6%, ADPT +6%, CRK +5%, KNTE +5% of note.
  • Gap Down: CRDO -44%, POWW -16%, BCS -11%, DVN -6%, UDMY -6%, TSM -6%, TX -6%, CNDT -5%, ABST -5%, EHAB -5%, LAD -4% of note.

Insider Action: PNNT sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: China Warns of Retaliation Against U.S. Over Balloon Saga. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  Apple to Scrutinize Customer History for New “Buy Now, Pay Later” Service. (Bloomberg)
  • Futures Pare Drop Overnight With Rates as Focus. (Bloomberg)
  • Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon resigns which was unexpected. (CNBC)
  • EU passed legislation to ban gasoline powered cars starting in 2035. (WSJ)
  • China’s economic recovery is off to a slow start. (CNBC)
  • Booming Oil exports boost U.S. as a global price maker. (WSJ)
  • Tesla (TSLA) commits to open 7,500 chargers to other EV vehicles by 2024 besides Teslas. (CNBC)
  • Weekly Mortgage Demand drops as rates rise. (CNBC)
  • ASML says that an ex-employee who was Chinese misappropriated data. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score inches up to 94% from 91%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The Vice President receive the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:15 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House, 1:25 p.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks on the progress we are making building an economy from the bottom up and the middle out, and about his vision to grow the economy, lower costs, and reward work, not wealth – while reducing the deficit, 2:30 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 3:40 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
    • US MBA Mortgage Applications Feb 10: -7.7% (prev 7.4%) – US 30-Yr MBA Mortgage Rate Feb 10: 6.39% (prev 6.18%)
    • MBA Mortgage Applications: Purchase: -5.5%, ReFi: -12.5%
  • January Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 1.7% from -1.1%.
  • February Empire State Manufacturing is due out also at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to improve to -19 from -32.90.
  • January Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.5% from -0.7%.
  • February NAHB Housing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 37 from 35.
  • Business Inventories 10:00 a.m. EST
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • Waters (WAT) has entered into an agreement to acquire Wyatt Technology for $1.36 billion in cash.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Baird Vehicle Technology & Mobility Conference
    • Cowen Aerospace/Defense & Industrials Conference (02/15/23-02/16/23)
    • KBW Winter Financial Services Conference (02/15/23-02/17/23)
    • Wolfe Research Global Auto Auto Tech and Auto Consumer Conference (02/15/23-02/16/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Bank of America Insurance Conference (02/14/23-02/15/23)
        • Bank of America Securities Financial Services Conference (02/14/23-02/16/23)
        • BTG Pactual CEO Conference (02/14/23-02/16/23)
        • BTIG MedTech, Digital Health, Life Science and Diagnostic Tools Conf (02/14/23-02/16/23)
        • Credit Suisse 24th Annual Financials Services Forum 2023 (02/13/23-02/15/23)
        • SVB Securities Global Biopharma Conference 2023 (02/13/23-02/16/23)
  • Company Meetings: AMST, RKDA
  • Fireside Chat:
    • ScottsMiracle-Gro (SMG) Fireside Chat with Wells Fargo 2023.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: GNS, MMMB, SDCH, SEE, SOLO, WRAP
  • Update:
    • Mastercard (MA) Conference Call on Changes in Presentation of Net Revenues.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • The Miami International Boat Show and the Miami Yacht Show 2023 (02/15/23-02/19/23)
    • The Macula Society Annual Meeting 2023 (02/15/23-02/18/23)
    • 3rd Annual Women’s Health Innovation Series: Reproductive Health Innovation Summit 2023 (02/15/23-02/16/23)
    • Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL) 2023 (02/15/23-02/19/23)
    • Transplantation & Cellular Therapy Meetings of ASTCT and CIBMTR Tandem Meetings 2023 (02/15/23-02/19/23)
    • American Society of Clinical Oncology Series
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • IT EXPO 2023 (02/14/23-02/17/23)
        • Intersolar North America (ISNA) & Energy Storage North America (ESNA) Conference 2023 (02/14/23-02/16/23)
        • Virtual Investor CleanTech and Precious Metals Investor Conference 2023 (02/14/23-02/16/23
        • Egypt Petroleum Show (02/13/23-02/15/23)
        • EMEA Transform Solarwinds Partner Summit (02/13/23-02/17/23
        • New York Fashion Week Fall-Winter (02/10/23-02/15/23)
        • Chicago Auto Show 2023 (02/10/23-02/20/23)
        • 46th Annual Association for Research in Otolaryngology (ARO) MidWinter Meeting (02/11/23-02/15/23)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: