CAPIS Morning Note – 02/14/22: Futures Flat, Down and Now Higher on Russian Comments.

Please Note: CAPIS to Hold its February Research Briefing on Feb 17th with Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton. Register here Overnight Summary: Global markets are concerned over lack of progress on a solution in Ukraine. Asia and Europe are lower. S&P 500 traded sideways until 3:30 a.m. EST at 4428 before dropping to 4368.50 down -41…

Please Note: CAPIS to Hold its February Research Briefing on Feb 17th with Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton. Register here

Overnight Summary: Global markets are concerned over lack of progress on a solution in Ukraine. Asia and Europe are lower. S&P 500 traded sideways until 3:30 a.m. EST at 4428 before dropping to 4368.50 down -41 S&P 500 points or -0.93% at 7:20 a.m. EST but are now down -4 S&P 500 points.

Breaking News: Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs says wants to continue diplomatic work with U.S. but cannot go on indefinitely. Sees a way forward with talks or an agreement. (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Novus Capital Corporation II (NXU) and Energy Vault complete business combination today and trade on NYSE under ticker “NRGV”.
    • Northern Lights Acquisition Corp. (NLIT) and SHF, LLC dba Safe Harbor Financial enter into an agreement for $327 million.
    • Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. (VHAQ) Announces Clarified Contribution Terms in Connection with the Extension Related to Merger Agreement with Suneva Medical.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BWMN Bowman Consulting Group Announces Closing of Follow-On Public Offering.
    • Vivakor, Inc. (VIVK) Announces Pricing of $8.0 Million Underwritten Public Offering and Nasdaq Listing.
    • AGFS: Filed Form S-3.. $200,000,000.
    • AMST: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock .. Laidlaw Bookmanager.
    • BIGC: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Series 1 Common Stock.
    • ENOB: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Common Stock Offering.
    • Hut 8 Mining (HUT) enters at-the-market equity offering of up to $65 mln of common stock.
    • VLDR: Filed Form S-3.. 9,898,508 Shares of Common Stock and $300 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • Delta Air Lines (DAL) Files for 10,425,433 share common stock offering by selling shareholder.
    • QS: Filed Form S-3.. 15,221,334 share of Class A common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CEIX: Filed Form S-3ASR .. Mixed Shelf.
    • MARA: Mixed shelf Offering $750 Million.
    • PARR: Filed Form S-3ASR.. $750 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • PTE: Filed Form S-3.. $196,714,362 Mixed Shelf.
    • WTER: Filed Form S-3.. $50 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • VLDR: Filed a $300 million Mixed Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • ABR: Closes a $2.05 Billion Collateralized Loan Obligation Securitization.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: CRS 34%, BTU 31%, CEIX 29%, COOP 28%, HAE 25%, TUP 25%, MDGL 24%, ATHN 23%, INVA 23%, PFGC 22%, ACH 22%, EXPR 22%, SAVE 21%, SQM 21%, GME 21%, TDC 20%.
    • Trading Down: PRQR -74%, TWOU -46%, NEWR -30%, SENS -27%, UVE -27%, ARGO -26%, GT -25%, AFI -19%, NGL -19%, EHTH -17%, ATGE -16%, BEAT -16%, EPC -15%, AVYA -15%, GLT -15%, MRTX -15%, NSP -14%, GOOS -14%, EDIT -14%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stellantis (STLA) recalled 19,908 plugged in hybrid minivans.
    • MetLife (MET) may sell its U.S. variable annuity book. (Reuters)
    • AstraZeneca (AZN) wins $855 mln US Army contract modification for Evusheld, to treat COVID-19.
    • AbCellera (ABCL) -Discovered Antibody, Bebtelovimab, Receives U.S. FDA Emergency Use Authorization for the Treatment of Mild-to-Moderate COVID-19.
    • 13 F filings out from hedge fund managers including Trian Fund, Soros Fund and Baupost Group.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • Stocks That Defined the Week: PEP, DIS, TSN, SAVE, PTON, NVDA, UBER  (WSJ)
    • The Week in Business: Peloton’s (PTON) Tough Times (NYT)
    • In phone call, President Biden warned Russian President Putin of “swift and severe costs” if Russia invades Ukraine and said that the US seeks diplomacy but is “equally prepared for other scenarios.”
    • Cisco (CSCO) Made $20 Billion-Plus Takeover Offer for Splunk (SPLK). (WSJ)
    • Federal Reserve Will Hold Closed Board Meeting On Monday, Feb. 14, 2022 At 11:30 a.m. EST.  Says ‘will be held under expedited procedures, To Discuss ‘Review and determination by the Board of the advance and discount rates to be charged by Fed Banks’.
    • Raytheon (RTX) Is Target of U.S. Criminal Probe Into Hiring (Bloomberg)
    • Boeing (BA) Says It Won’t Rush Process of Resuming 787 Deliveries (Bloomberg)
    • 3M’s (MMM) Legal Woes Cast $33 Billion Shadow Over CEO’s Growth Plan. (Bloomberg)
    • Barron’s:
      • Positive View: DKNG, MGM, CZR, PENN, BALY, SYNA, DIS, CAT, CNHI, PG, PM, ANTM, BC, FCX, MCHP, OC, STLA, F, TSM, WDC, MU, ON.
      • Negative View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Bright Health Group (BHG) CEO Simeon Schindelman is stepping down effective March 11, 2022.  Jay Mutushak, CFO, will step in as interim CEO.
    • Boston Omaha (BOMN) to change ticker symbol to “BOC” effective February 22 on the NYSE.
    • CapStar (CSTR) Announces Appointments to Executive Leadership Team.
    • NOG (NOG) Announces Uplisting to the New York Stock Exchange.
    • SOS (SOS) Announces Receipt of NYSE Non-compliance Letter Regarding ADS Trading Price.
    • Stealth BioTherapeutics (MITO) Receives Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Market Value Of Publicly Held Shares Requirement.
  • Buyback Announcements: None of note.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Hawaiian Electric (HE) increases quarterly dividend to $0.35 per share from $0.34 per share.
    • Vulcan Materials (VMC ) increases quarterly dividend to $0.40 per share, a 7.5% increase.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +4, Dow Jones +30, NASDAQ +5 and Russell 2000 +9.  Asia and Europe lower. Japan closed today. VIX Futures are at 27.25 from 24.75  Friday morning. Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at 1.954% from 2.005%.  Bitcoin is at $42,5952 from $43,581 up +0.66%. As of 8:16 a.m. EST

Friday’s Action – 02/11/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Healthcare, Financial of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Financial, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Real Estate, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Financial of note.

Reports of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine pulled the markets back.  NDX was down 3.06%.  TKT jumped 1.48% to close at 138.25.  Commodities were up with USO +2.78% and both GLD and SLV up 1.91%.  Updated 02/11/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close: ANET, CLR, AAP, SCI, CAR, VNO, OMCL, MEDP, PRI, SRC, AMKR, ZD, OTTR, NTB of note.
  • Tuesday Before the Open: ZTS, FIS, ECL, MAR, TRP, IQV, QSR, LDOS, BKI, BWA, HSIC, ALLE, HUN, IPGP, WCC, KRNT, TRTN, FELE, ABG, LGIH, ARCH, CEVA of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: KELYA +0.36, STNG +0.05, THS +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: D, THS.
  • Negative Guidance: NWL.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 02/11/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: BDSI +50%, KELYA +4%, CEIX +3%, ZWS +3%.
  • Gap Down: ENOB -6%, HUT -5%, STLA -3%, KC -3%.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. LOB sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 02/11/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: SPLK, BX, AJRD, RIVN, GRUB, LLY, TSN, TXN. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • What to Watch When the Stock Market Opens Today (WSJ)
  • Covid cases at 170,582 from 289,747 with hospitalizations at 86,401 from 111,165. (CDC)
  • National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan still hopes for a diplomatic solution but Russia could start with airstrikes. (CNN)
  • Federal Reserve San Francisco President Mary Daly says need to avoid “abrupt and aggressive” action which could be destabilizing. (CBS News)
  • Ambassador Bridge which connects Canada to Detroit has been reopened. However, protests still continue in Ottawa. (NYT)
  • Lots of mask mandates ended over the weekend.
  • Tesla (TSLA) sold 60,000 cars in China in January. (Reuters)
  • Door Dash (DASH) to charge McDonalds (MCD) for orders that are slow. (WSJ)
  • Coinbase (COIN) after its Super Bowl ad saw more traffic to its website than it had ever seen and had to throttle back traffic for a few minutes.

Moving Average Update:

  • The score declines all the way to 6% from 36%.  Updated 02/11/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The First Lady arrive at the White House, 10:30 a.m. EST
    • The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, 11:30 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Principal Deputy Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 2:30 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  •  None of note.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Fed Speak: Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard on CNBC 8:30 a.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Apollo (APO) to Invest in Aldar Through Landmark US$1.4 Billion Transaction. Largest foreign direct investments into Abu Dhabi’s private sector.
  • Collegium (COLL) to acquire BioDelivery Sciences (BDSI) in an all-cash deal at a price of $5.60 per share.
  • Lockheed Martin (LMT) Terminates Agreement to Acquire Aerojet Rocketdyne (AJRD).
  • Oracle (ORCL) extends tender offer  until March 16 in connection with the acquisition of Cerner.
  • Zurn Water Solutions (ZWS) and Elkay Manufacturing Company reached a definitive agreement to combine the businesses in an all-stock transaction.
  • ZION: Nevada State Bank Reaches Agreement to Acquire Three Northern Nevada Branches from City National Bank.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • SVB Leerink 11th Annual Global Healthcare Conference 2022 (02/14/22-02/18/22)
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • None of note.
  • Company Meetings: BTO.
  • Fireside Chat: GT (Deutsche Bank Hosts).
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: MMM.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: RHHBY.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • BIO CEO & Investor Digital Conference 2022 (02/14/22-02/18/22)
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • None of note 

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

      

Friday’s Upgrades and Downgrades: