CAPIS Morning Note – 02/13/24: Futures Lower Into CPI Data

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by -0.05% at 5021.84 from Friday higher by 0.57% at 5026.61. The overnight high was hit at 5042.50 at 4:05 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5019.50 at 5:55 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 23 points as of 6:35 a.m. EST. The 10-day…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by -0.05% at 5021.84 from Friday higher by 0.57% at 5026.61. The overnight high was hit at 5042.50 at 4:05 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5019.50 at 5:55 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 23 points as of 6:35 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 18.65 from 17.50.  The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -18 points at 6:40 a.m. EST.

Executive Summary: All eyes are on the 8:30 a.m. EST CPI data. A lower number confirms inflation continues to drop while a higher number will cause rates to rise. PPI is due on Friday.
  • January CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to remain at 0.20%.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: CAR +2.95, ANET +0.38, MEDP +0.24, WM +0.21, WTS +0.19, PFG +0.14, OTTR +0.12, GT +0.11, BLKB +0.09, TDC +0.05, CDNS +0.05, NTB +0.04, VNO +0.02, SCI +0.02, JHX +0.02, ZI +0.01, SAFE +0.01, BRX +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: HPP +0.00, EQC +0.00, LSCC +0.00, FRT +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: BHF (0.77) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • BMR: Prices offering of 1,714,200 ordinary shares at $7.00 per share.
    • ELTK: Prices offering of 625K ordinary shares at $16.00 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • CNX: Announces Pricing of $400 Million of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • GTES: Secondary Offering of 17,500,000 Ordinary Shares. (Citi, GS and Jefferies bookmanager)
    • PIXY: Filed Form S-1/A .. Up to 2,087,683 shares of Common Stock.
    • QNRX: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 2,089,552 Ordinary Shares Represented by American Depositary Shares.
    • SANA: Closing of Upsized Public Offering and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • CAPT: Files 24,204,377 ordinary shares offering; also files for 37,745,130 shares by selling shareholders; relates to warrants.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AADI: Filed Form S-3.. $150,000,000 – Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • CHSN: +55% SC 13G Filed by Danton Global Ltd 68.9%
    • ZI: +23% Earnings 
    • JBLU: +16% SC 13D Filed by Icahn 
    • ASPN: +14.5% Earnings 
    • TRIP: +14% Special Committee Formed to Evaluate Proposals
    • SANA: +8% Insider Purchase 
    • GTHX: -45% to Continue Pivotal Phase 3 Trial of Trilaciclib in Metastatic Triple Negative Breast Cancer Following Interim Analysis by Independent Data Monitoring Committee
    • TDC: -14% Earnings 
    • ANET: -7% Earnings 
    • LSCC: -6% Earnings 
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: JBLU, TRIP, LSCC, ANET, CDNS, CAR, ZI  (CNBC)
    • Arista (ANET) beats on earnings, but its stock pulls back. (MarketWatch)
    • Tripadvisor’s (TRIP) stock jumps after it forms new committee to weigh ‘a potential transaction’. (MarketWatch)
    • JetBlue Airways (JBLU): Icahn Capital LP (Carl Icahn) discloses 9.91% passive stake as of February 1. (Bloomberg)
    • JPM KOLANOVIC: “With the market priced for perfection, equity market internals unhealthy given extreme concentration, elevated investor positioning, expensive valuations, the Fed pushing back on market dovishness, and underappreciated inflation and geopolitical risks, we believe the risk-reward remains unfavorable for equities that are trading at all-time highs ..”
    • GM F TSLA MORGAN STANLEY: “.. EV sentiment is extremely negative… and will eventually deteriorate further, in our view. .. Our clients want our auto companies to do a combination of 4 things: spend less, spend slower, spend smarter, and return cash.” ([Jonas] CQ CNBC)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Disney (DIS) has stated that its board does not endorse the nominees put forward by the Trian Group or the Blackwells. The company urges shareholders to vote using the white proxy card.
    • Exscientia plc (EXAI) decided to terminate the employment of Andrew Hopkins as the Company’s Chief Executive Officer and Principal Executive Officer.
    • Kemper (KMPR) names Bradley Camden as CFO, effective immediately.
    • Moody’s (MCO) Names Noémie Heuland as Chief Financial Officer.
    • Sterling Infrastructure (STRL) announces that CFO Ronald Ballschmiede will retire in 2024.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Axos Financial (AX) authorizes up to $100 million for repurchases in addition to existing plan, which has approximately $20 million remaining
    • Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son (NTB) approves new share repurchase authorization for up to 3.5 million shares.
    • Oragenics, Inc. (OGEN) Announces Leadership Transition.
    • Principal Financial (PFG)Board of Directors approved a new authorization for the repurchase of $1.5 billion of the company’s outstanding common stock. (see Dividend)
  • Stock Splits or News:
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Atlanticus (ATLC) Announces Approval of Quarterly Preferred Stock Dividend.
    • Group 1 Auto Automotive (GPI) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.47 per share from $0.45 per share.
    • Otter Tail Power (OTTR) board of directors increased the quarterly common stock dividend to $0.4675 per share.
    • Principal Financial (PFG) raised itcommon stock dividend to $0.69 per share for first quarter 2024.
    • QSR raises dividend 5.5%.
    • Star Bulk Carriers Corp. (SBLK) Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.45 Per Share.
    • Warrior Met Coal (HCC) declares a special cash dividend of $0.50 per share to be paid on March 7.
    • Watsco (WSO) increases its annual dividend 10% to $10.80 per share.
  • Assets Under Management – January MoM: VCTR $165.5 billion, IVZ $1,583.9 billion (down 0.1%), AB $726 billion from $725 billion, VRTS $171.1 billion down from $172.3 billion.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -18 , Dow Jones -41 , NASDAQ -132 , and Russell 2000 +0.54 .  (as of 7:53 a.m. EST).  Asia is higher ex Australia while Europe is lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 15.05 from 14.58  this morning.  Gold, Silver and Copper are higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.162% from 4.154% yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $49,863 from $47,945 lower by -0.40% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Utilities, Energy, Basic Materials, Consumer Defensive, Financial of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, and Healthcare of note.

The S&P 500 backed off its record Monday ahead of key inflation data and a spate of earnings this week.  The benchmark index shed 0.1%, after setting multiple new records last week and closing above 5000 for the first time Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, or about 125 points, to hit a record, while the Nasdaq Composite was 0.3% lower.  Strong economic data, encouraging corporate earnings and the continued rally in technology shares have continued to power U.S. stocks in 2024. Despite the S&P 500’s slip on Monday, a big day for small-caps—the Russell 2000 added 1.8%—had some investors optimistic that the index’s gains can expand further beyond big tech and be sustained.   The Russell 2000 has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past two weeks after badly lagging behind in 2023.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: NMM +1.72, MAR +1.45, LDOS +0.23, AN +0.15, ROIV +0.10, TRU +0.08, TAP +0.07, HWM +0.06, GFS +0.05, INMD +0.05, SHOP +0.04, QSR +0.02, DDOG +0.01, BRKR +0.01  of note.
  • Flat: SITC +0.00, KO +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: WCC (1.21), WSO (0.36), HAS (0.29), LCII (0.24), BIIB (0.23), MCO (0.14), INCY (0.09), ZTS (0.08), HRI (0.07), DNUT (0.04) of note.
  • Still to Report: ECL, FELE, HE, IPGP, TPG, KLG of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: METC, MEDP, OTTR, WM, INMD, HWM of note.
  • Negative Guidance: LSCC, CDNS, TDC, BLKB, PFG, ASPN, GFS, MAR, ZTS, MCO, DNUT  of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:  

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: ZI +21%, BMR +15%, ASPN +14%, JBLU +14%, EXAI +11%, TRIP +11%, METC +6% of note.
  • Gap Down: GTHX -39%, ELTK -15%, TDC -14%, RPTX -10%, WCC -9%, BHF -8%, ANET -7%, LSCC -7%, MUX -7%, CDNS -6%, BLKB -5%, HPP -5%, GTES -4% of note.

Insider Action: MRCY sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: US CPI Data to Show Services as Key Driver of Disinflation. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Temu spent millions on six Super Bowl ads as it tries to win back customers. (Bloomberg)
  • US Futures slump before US Inflation Report: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • There’s a New Short Volatility Trade “Gone Too Far” in town. (Bloomberg)
  • Coca Cola (KO) rises as full year outlook beats expectations. (Bloomberg)
  • Biogen (BIIB) misses estimates as MS drugs decline. (Bloomberg)
  • Restaurant Brands (QSR) beats estimates due to strength at Tim Hortons. (CNBC)
  • Commercial Property Loans jump to $929 billion due in 2024, higher than earlier estimates. (Bloomberg)
  • Super Bowl 58 was the most watched television event ever with 123 million viewers. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: What the US 2024 Election could mean for China.  (Podcast)
  • Wealthion:  The Central Bank Gold Rush. (Podcast)

Podcasts are presented to provide interesting viewpoints on current issues. We do not necessarily support each viewpoint. They are more meant to get you thinking!

Moving Average Update: 100% day 3.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and White House National Security Communications Advisor John Kirby, 10:15 a.m. EST
    • The President and The Vice President have lunch, 12:30 p.m. EST
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing; The Vice President attends, 2:45 p.m. EST


  • NFIB Small Business Index 6:00 a.m. EST
    • US NFIB Small Business Optimism Jan: 89.9 (est 92.3; prev 91.9)
  • January CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to remain at 0.20%.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity and News

  • Expro Group (XPRO) acquires Coretrax for $210 million.
  • Group 1 Auto Automotive (GPI) acquires RRR Automotive Group.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Baird Biotech Discovery Series
    • Cowen Aerospace & Defense Conference
    • Oppenheimer Healthcare Life Sciences Conference
    • Stifel Transportation and Logistics Conference
    • TD Cowen Glowing Ahead: Beauty & Wellness Summit
    • Wolfe Research Inaugural Semiconductor Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • BTIG MedTech Digital Health Life Science & Diagnostic Tools Conference
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BB FGEN MAMA TAP VNRX ZOM
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • IIFL’s Enterprising India Global Investors’ Conference
    • Respiratory Syncytial Virus Foundation’s RSVVW conference
    • SCOPE Summit
        • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
          • AAOS Annual Meeting
          • New York Fashion Week

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: