CAPIS Morning Note – 02/12/24: Futures Flat Overnight. Chiefs Win Superbowl.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.57% at 5026.61 from Thursday higher by 0.06% at 4997.91. The overnight high was hit at 5046.25 at 6:25 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5038.75 at 6:05 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 8 points as of 7:10 a.m. EST. The 10-day…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.57% at 5026.61 from Thursday higher by 0.06% at 4997.91. The overnight high was hit at 5046.25 at 6:25 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5038.75 at 6:05 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 8 points as of 7:10 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 17.50 from 18.70.  The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +0.75 points at 7:10 a.m. EST. This is the second time in 2024 that the overnight range was very low at 8. The last time was January 23rd.

Overnight News: The Kansas City Chiefs beat the San Francisco 49ers in overtime to become the second team in the last 20 years to win back-to-back Super Bowls.

Executive Summary: Well, an AFC Team won the Super Bowl which bodes poorly for stocks. The market prefers an NFC winner historically but of late the AFC victory has not hurt the market. So far in February, the S&P 500 has been lower by only one day. Expect a down day or two this week.
  • Treasury Statement 2:00 p.m. EST along with some minor auctions that are six month in nature.
  • Several Fed Speakers of note today: Bowman 9:20 a.m. EST, Barkin 12:00 p.m. EST and Kashkari at 2:00 p.m. EST.
  • Short interest – The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is out. NYSE fell by -0.71% while NASDAQ rose by 0.11%.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • byNordic Acquisition Corporation (BYNO) Announces Extension of Deadline to Complete Business Combination.
    • Denali Capital Acquisition Corp. (DECA) Announces Extension of Deadline to Complete Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • ABL: Prices Public Offering of $25 Million Additional 9.875% Notes Due 2028.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AHR: Completes 64.4 million share offering at $12 per share.
    • GOEV: Filed Form 424B5.. $20,000,000 Common Stock.
    • PBM: FORM F-1 – 22,496,000 Common Shares.
    • RDHL: FORM F-1 – 10,600,000 American Depositary Shares representing 4,240,000,000 Ordinary Shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • IVVD: Files for 37,745,998 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • KURA: Files for 8,695,699 share common stock offering by selling shareholders, relates to warrants.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • AXP: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • SAVE: Files mixed securities shelf offering.
    • VUZI: Files for $300 million mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • ATR: FORM S-3ASR – Debt Securities.
  • Tender Offer:
    • CNX: Resources Corporation Announces Tender Offer for its 7.250% Senior Notes due 2027.
    • SNCE: eMed commences tender offer for Science 37.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Weekend:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: GLT 69.9%, MOR 55.3%, FGEN 46.8%, MTRX 40.5%, DOOR 40.1%, ABEO 37.6%, RGNX 36.4%, KPTI 34.1%, INO 31.2%, COHR 27.7%, CHRS 27.2%, ADAP 25.0%, CVNA 21.4%, TAL 21.1%, PBYI 20.8%, ENPH 20.7%.
    • Trading Down: PLCE -43.0%, NYCB -21.3%, KREF -20.6%, SUPV -17.4%, NWL -16.5%, CRBP -16.4%, SBNY -16.2%, FMC -16.0%, CCK -15.9%, NSP -15.6%, APD -15.3%, MDGL -15.2%, RMBS -15.1%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • S&P 500 closes above 5k first time ever.
    • Discount Home Retailer Big Lots (BIG) Seeks Cash During Ongoing Losses. (Bloomberg)
    • South State (SSB) discloses cybersecurity incident.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • The Score: Stocks That Defined the Week – EL, MCD, PLTR, NYCB, ARM, DIS (WSJ)
    • President Biden challenges consumer companies to stop “shrinkflation”. (XPost)
    • Department of Defense issues statement from Walter Reed Military Medical Center Officials on Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin III’s health status. (Release)
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: CVX, BP, MS, C, PEP, BRX, TM, MCD of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: WBA, CVS, GTN, NXST, SSP, FUBO of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Battalion Oil (BATL) in Compliance with NYSE American Listing Standards.
    • Cannae Holdings (CNNE) appointed Chairman William P. Foley II as CEO and Richard Massey as Vice Chairman of the Board.
    • Dover (DOV) names CEO Richard Tobin to the additional role of Chairman of the Board.
    • DZS Inc. (DZSI) Receives Expected Nasdaq Delisting Determination, Plans to Request Hearing by February 13.
    • Fulton Fincl (FULT) announces that CFO Mark McCollom has resigned; co names interim CFO.
    • Mitek Systems (MITK) to delay 10-Q filing.
    • P10, Inc. (PX) COO William Souder to retire in May 2024.
    • ParaZero (PRZO) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Notification.
    • ProFrac Holding (ACDC) announces that COO Blaine Wilbanks employment has been terminated.
    • SAP SE (SAP) nominates Pekka Ala-Pietilä as designated successor to Chairman.
    • Block (SQ): Larry Summers resigns from board of directors to devote more time to his other professional and personal commitments.
    • TuanChe (TC) Has Regained Compliance with Nasdaq’s Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Emeren Group (SOL) Board of Directors approves an accelerated stock repurchase program up to $10 million.
    • Karooooo (KARO) to buy back 1 Million shares.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • SGLY 1/10 ASMB 1/12 reverse split stocks for today.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Diamondback Energy (FANG) Board of Directors will approve a 7% increase to its base dividend to $3.60 per share annually.
    • Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.26 per share from $0.24 per share.
    • Vulcan Materials (VMC) increases quarterly cash dividend 7% to $0.46 per share from $0.43 per share.
    • Warrior Met Coal (HCC) approves a 14% increase in its quarterly cash dividend.
  • Assets Under Management – January MoM: APAM $150.9 billion from 150.2, LAZ $243.8 billion (down $2.3 billion).

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +, Dow Jones +, NASDAQ +, and Russell 2000 +.  (as of 8:00 a.m. EST).  Asia is higher ex Australia while Europe is higher ex the FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.58 from 14.45 this morning.  Gold lower while Silver and Copper are higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil, Brent Crude Oil and Natural Gas are lower. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.154% from 4.175% Friday morning. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $47,945 from $47,233 lower by -0.47% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Communcation Services, Consumer Cyclical, Financial, Utilities, Industrials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Cyclical Financial of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, and Healthcare Industrials of note.

Technology stocks drove the S&P 500 past another milestone and to a fresh record on Friday, with the S&P 500 closing above 5000 points for the first time.  The rally reflects unexpected strength in the economy that has investors believing that as long as the expansion continues, they can ride riskier assets to gains even if interest rates remain high.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.2% on Friday, bringing its rise to 6.5% so far this year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.1%, or about 55 points, Friday yet remains up 2.6% year-to-date. The S&P 500 ended the week 1.4% higher at about 5027 following a climb of 0.6% Friday. The index has risen 5.4% in 2024.  Each of those indexes have risen during 14 of the past 15 weeks. The S&P 500 hasn’t had a run like that since a stretch that ended in March 1972. The last time the Dow and Nasdaq did was in the 1990s.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)


Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: MNDY +0.33, IMVT +0.07, TRMB +0.04 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative Guidance: TRMB, ABBV of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:  

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: HCC +4%, SOL +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: BIG -16%, VUZI -6%, IVVD -5% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Europe Remembers Trump’s Tirade Against NATO Differently. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Gyms face a tough year as key January growth screeches to a halt. (Bloomberg)
  • European Stocks push higher on the coattails of the S&P 500: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Elon Musk denies selling Starlink terminals to Russia after Ukraine alleges their use in occupied areas. (CNBC)
  • Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in critical care over prostrate issues. Transfers duties to Deputy Kathleen Hicks. (Bloomberg)
  • Superbowl Ad recap. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg: Odd Lots:  How a second Trump administration could up end U.S. – China relations. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion:  Surviving market chaos. (Podcast)

Podcasts are presented to provide interesting viewpoints on current issues. We do not necessarily support each viewpoint. They are more meant to get you thinking!

Moving Average Update: 100% day 2.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The Predident receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route to the National Association of Counties Legislative Conference, 10:15 a.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks at the National Association of Counties Legislative Conference, 11:15 a.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 12:05 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:00 p.m. EST
    • The President and The First Lady welcome His Majesty King Abdullah II and Her Majesty Queen Rania Al Abdullah of Jordan to the White House, 2:30 p.m. EST
    • The President and His Majesty King Abdullah II of Jordan deliver remarks following a meeting, 4:00 p.m. EST


  • 3-Month Bill Auction 11:30 a.m. EST
  • 6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 a.m. EST
  • Treasury Statement 2:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers

  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman 9:20 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 12:00 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari 2:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity and News

  • Diamondback Energy (FANG) and Endeavor Energy Resources, L.P. to merge to create a premier Permian Basin independent oil and gas company.
  • Interstate Waste Services (ARES) Announces Acquisition of Oak Ridge Waste & Recycling

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • BTIG MedTech Digital Health Life Science & Diagnostic Tools Conference
    • Canaccord Musculoskeletal Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Nuvama India Investor Conference
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: ARRW, IRRX
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: None of note.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • AAOS Annual Meeting
    • New York Fashion Week
        • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: