CAPIS Morning Note – 02/10/22: How Hot Will CPI Be This Morning?

Please Note: CAPIS to Hold its February Research Briefing on Feb 17th with Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton. Register here Erlanger Chart Room Update On The VIX: The chart below pattern of the VIX through 2/9. Note the VIX is below 20 for the first time since January 13th.  The trend is pretty obvious. Fun Fact:…

Please Note: CAPIS to Hold its February Research Briefing on Feb 17th with Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton. Register here

Erlanger Chart Room Update On The VIX: The chart below pattern of the VIX through 2/9. Note the VIX is below 20 for the first time since January 13th.  The trend is pretty obvious.

Fun Fact: There are now 1,000 unicorns worth over $1 billion. (Bloomberg)

Overnight Summary: Markets are in what we call “Waiting For Godot” mode. Today’s CPI will drive the action. It has been high and will that trend continue. Overnight Asia was higher and Europe higher ex the CAC (France). S&P 500 futures have mostly traded lower overnight with a low of 4565 and is now at 4575 at 7:25 a.m. EST down -4 points.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: ORLY +1.62, CPA +0.92, UBER +0.77, DCP +0.56, COHR +0.56, DIS +0.43, AEIS +0.42, ACGL +0.27, MAT +0.22, MFC +0.21, ASGN +0.20, RE +0.14, PI +0.13, DIOD +0.12, MOH +0.12, FWRD +0.11, MSI +0.11, MGM +0.09, WTS +0.09, IFF +0.07, AFG +0.06, NVST +0.06, TWOU +0.05, SPSC +0.04, SONO +0.04, KN +0.04, TTMI +0.03, PPC +0.03, EFX +0.03, CDAY +0.03, CXW +0.03, CHX +0.02, REXR +0.02, ENS +0.02, TWLO +0.02, RPD +0.01, RAMP +0.01, TWO +0.01, NLY +0.01, FR +0.01, ENSG +0.01, ITT +0.01, SLF +0.01, EQC +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: FLNC (0.22), BKH (0.19), EEFT (0.16), MESA (0.15), ZNGA (0.15), EQT (0.12), IRBT (0.11), MDU (0.11), SGEN (0.08), MC (0.07), GFL (0.07), VMEO (0.07), LUMN (0.03), PAA (0.02), UDMY (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • SilverBox Engaged Merger Corp I (SBEA) Pleased to Announce Closing of Business Combination with Black Rifle Coffee Company.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AGFY: Filed Form S-3.. 7,036,739 Shares of Common Stock.
    • AGLE: Proposed Public Offering.. Jonestrading bookmanager.
    • LIQT: Filed Form S-3.. $100,000,000 of Common Stock.
    • TWST: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock $200Million of shares .. JPM, GS, Cowen and Blair bookmanagers.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering:
    • STAB: Closing of $2.0 Million Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • System1 (SST) files for 87,245,513 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
    • Heritage-Crystal (HCCI) Clean files for share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • VRTX: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • HPK: Announces Pricing of $225 Million Private Placement of Senior Unsecured Notes Due 2024.
    • Owens-Brockway Glass Container Inc. (OI) Commences Cash Tender Offer for Up To $250,000,000 Aggregate Purchase Price of Certain of its Outstanding 5.875% Senior Notes due 2023, 6.625% Senior Notes due 2027, 6.375% Senior Notes due 2025 and 5.375% Senior Notes due 2025.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: IRNT +43%, TWLO +19%, MQ +15%, IREN +11%, MAT +10%, SONO +7%, DIS +7%, BLBD +7%, PHAT +6%, RAMP +5%, UBER +5%, ORLY +5%, PNNT +4%.
    • Trading Down: TWOU -21%, VMEO -18%, SGEN -16%, IRBT -14%, QUOT -13%, LUMN -12%, AGLE -11%, UDMY -9%, MESA -7%, PI -6%, CDAY -6%, SST -5%, TWST -4%.
  • News After The Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: DIS, UBER, MAT, TWLO, MGM (CNBC)
    • Disney (DIS) parks business roars back as company beats earnings expectations, stock soars (CNBC)
    • Twilio (TWLO) shares surge 28% on earnings, sales that top analyst estimates (MarketWatch)
    • Salesforce (CRM) tells employees it’s working on NFT cloud service (CNBC)
    • Lumber Surges Anew as Supplies Shrink Ahead of Building Season (Bloomberg)
    • MAT: Inflation expected to be more significant in 2022.
    • COVID-19 truck blockade in Canada shuts down Ford (F) plant.  Ford said late Wednesday that parts shortages forced it to shut down its engine plant in Windsor and to run an assembly plant in Oakville, Ontario, on a reduced schedule.
    • Navy awarded Lockheed Martin (LMT) a $320 million contract.
    • AeroVironment (AVAV) Awarded $10.5 Million Puma LE Unmanned Aircraft Systems Foreign Military Sales Contract for U.S. Ally.
    • Assets Under Management: APAM $163.6 billion, IVZ $1,550.9 billion, BEN $1,521.8 billion (vs. $1,578 in Dec.), LAZ $257.7 billion.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Ceridian HCM (CDAY) has promoted Leagh Turner to Co-CEO and appointed her Board of Directors.
    • First American Financial (FAF) Announces Kenneth D. DeGiorgio as CEO.
    • Five Point Holdings (FPH) announces the appointment of Daniel Hedigan as Chief Executive Officer of the Company, effective immediately.  Lynn Jochim, President and Chief Operating Officer, will step down as of February 14, 2022.
    • Marqeta (MQ) Announces Visa Veteran Mike Milotich as New CFO.
    • Pennant Investment (PNNT) announces $25 million stock repurchase program.
    • PFSweb (PFSW) Announces Receipt of Nasdaq Delisting Notice.
    • Prudential Plc (PUK) announces that Group CEO, Mike Wells, intends to retire from his role at the end of March 2022.
    • Qudian Inc. (QD) Receives Notice Regarding NYSE Continued Listing Standards.
    • Vimeo (VMEO) Narayan Menon, CFO, plans to leave company.  Anjali Sud, CEO,  is expected to go on maternity leave in April 2022.
    • Watts Water Tech. (WTS) names CEO Robert Pagano, Jr. as its new Chairperson of the Board effective immediately.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • Enova (ENVA) Announces $100 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Ensign Group (ENSG) announces buyback.
    • Radian (RDN) Announces Plans to Return Additional Capital to Stockholders.
    • PEP Announces up to $10 billion share buyback.
    • Unilever PLC (UL) authorizes share buyback of €3 billion.
    • Twitter (TWTR) to buyback $4 billion of stock.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Continental Resources (CLR) increases quarterly dividend $0.03 to $0.23 per share.
    • Forward Air (FWRD) increases quarterly dividend to $0.24 per share.
    • Herc Holdings (HRI) increases dividend to $0.575 per share, 15% increase.
    • ITT (ITT) announces a 20% dividend increase.
    • PEP Raises annual dividend 7% to $4.60 per share.
    • Patterson (PTEN) declares dividend.
    • Pennant Investment (PNNT) increases quarterly dividend $0.02 to $0.14 per share.
    • Unilever PLC (UL) raises dividend by 3%.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -3, Dow Jones +64, NASDAQ -21 and Russell 2000 -2.8.  Asia higher and Europe higher ex the CAC. VIX Futures are at 21.33 from 21.65 yesterday morning. Gold lower with Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at 1.927% from 1.932%.  Bitcoin is at $44,840 from $44,172 up +0.31%. As of 8:10 a.m. EST

Monday’s Action – 02/09/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Communication Services, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Basic Materials, Healthcare of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: none of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy and Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive and Utilities of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Financial, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Real Estate, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Financial of note.

Happy Days are Here Again!  Broad based buying was spurred by encouraging signs of COVID-19 outlook getting past “full blown” pandemic phase.  NDX was up 2.10%.  UNG down -4.55%  Updated 02/09/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: ILMN, RSG, DXCM, MTD, EXPE, NET, VRSN, FE, HUBS, SSNC, BIO, MPWR, CFLT, AFRM, EQH, ZG, GDDY, CSL, DVA, ZEN, MHK, FRT, AVLR, WU, FLO, QLYS, ELY, BHF, ENSG, NSP, NWE, UPWK, TEX, VCRA, OFC, MNTV, COUR, YELP, BE, FROG, LGND, ME, COHU, PRO of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: ENB, D, APO, FTS, MGA, ARES, WPC, NWL, BRKR, CLF, UAA, CAE, NBIX, IAA, GT, ESNT, AB, SXT, NMRK, AIMC, GPRE, PRLB, AXL of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: ECOM +0.82, LH +0.77, MT +0.70, PBF +0.64, FAF +0.51, LCII +0.47, CIGI +0.41, GPI +0.38, WSO +0.33, SSTK +0.29, MLM +0.22, TPR +0.14, DTE +0.14, ZBRA +0.14, WEX +0.12, CYBR +0.12, AZN +0.12, LIN +0.10, DDOG +0.09, PM +0.08, INMD +0.07, MAC +0.05, KO +0.04, LECO +0.04, HRI +0.04, TUFN +0.03, KIM +0.02, TTGT +0.02, HII +0.02, CAMT +0.01, SON +0.01, PEP +0.01, IPG +0.01, GPN +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: DBD (0.51), PDS (0.25), MCO (0.06), PTEN (0.03), DUK (0.03), GOOS (0.03), TU (0.02), TWTR (0.01).
  • Still to Report: ALNY , BTU , K , NSIT , PATK , PCG , PIPR , ROLL.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: MAT, SONO, DIOD, IFF, ASGN CDAY, ENSG, ORLY, EFX, GFL, FWRD, AZN, CAMT, WEX, TPR, TU, SON, PM, TUFN, KO, SSTK.
  • Negative Guidance: RDWR, IRBT, TWOU, KN, VMEO, MSI, UDMY, REXR, CXW, QUOT, MDU, ZBRA, GOOS, TTGT.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 02/09/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: IRNT +21%, TWLO +19%, MQ +11%, MAT +10%, DIS +7%, BLBD +7%, SONO +6%, STC +6%, INTA +5%, UBER +5%, ACGL +4%, PNNT +4%.
  • Gap Down: TWOU -24%, VMEO -21%, SGEN -16%, AGLE -15%, IRBT -15%, QUOT -14%, LUMN -12%, UDMY -11%, PI -8%, MESA -7%, CDAY -6%, FLNC -5%, CS -4%, SST -4%, TWST -4%.

Insider Action: PYPL sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 02/09/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: KO TWTR TPR GOOS DIS. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Covid cases at 191,920 from 287,114 with hospitalizations at 102,695 from 127,329. (CDC)
  • CDC is not in agreement with states removing mask mandates. (NYT)
  • Some cities within states that are removing mask mandates remain with mask mandates – New York City, Los Angeles and San Jose. (WSJ)
  • General Electric (GE) to take a $700 million to $800 million charge on sale of General Electric Steam Power to Electricite de France (ECIFY).
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at the $3.6 billion bitcoin heist. Netflix (NFLX) and other streamers get half the Oscar nominations.

Moving Average Update:

  • The score improves to 76% from 63%.  Updated 02/09/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:30 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route Culpeper Regional Airport, 10:45 a.m. EST
    • The President arrives in Brandy Station, Virginia, 11:15 a.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks highlighting the Biden-Harris Administration’s work to lower health care costs, including prescription drug costs, for American families; The Secretary of Health and Human Services also delivers remarks, 12:30 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Brandy Station, Virginia en route the White House, 2:55 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 3:25 p.m. EST
    • The President and The Vice President host the Senate Judiciary Committee Democrats as they continue to seek the advice of lawmakers in both parties on the Supreme Court nomination process, 4:45 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • January CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 0.5% from 0.6%.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EST
  • January Treasury Budget is due out at 2:00 p.m. EST and last month came in at $-21.3 billion. 

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at 7:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • BX: Entertainment Icon & Rapper Snoop Dogg Acquires Death Row Records Brand from Blackstone-Controlled MNRK Music Group.
  • TTE TotalEnergies to Acquire SunPower’s (SPWR) Commercial & Industrial Solar Business.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Baird Private Company Technology & Services Conference.
    • Morgan Stanley Chemicals, Agriculture and Packaging Corporate Access Days 2022. 
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Guggenheim Healthcare Talks Oncology Virtual Conference 2022 (02/09/22-02/10/22)
        • Cowen Aerospace, Defense & Industrials 43rd Annual Conference 2022 (02/08/22-02/10/22)
  • Company Meetings: PAE, SRDX, TSN.
  • Fireside Chat: XSPA (by Water Tower Research).
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: CDNA, MDU, UBER, OAS.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Foodtech Conference 2022
    • Inaugural Metaverse Summit
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • American Heart Association International Stroke Conference (02/09/22-02/11/22)
        • 121 Mining Investment Online EMEA 2022 (02/08/22-02/10/22)
        • 2nd Winter Wonderland Annual Best Ideas Virtual Conference 2022 (02/08/22-02/11/22)
        • MicroCap Rodeo Best Ideas Buy-Side Winter Wonderland Conference 2022 (02/08/22-02/11/22)
        • International Builders Show (IBS) 2022 (02/08/22-02/10/22)
        • BiotechGate Digital Partnering 2022 (02/07/22-02/11/22) 
        • 18th Annual WORLD Symposium 2022 (02/07/22-02/11/22) 
        • Summit For Clinical Ops Executives (SCOPE) 2022 02/07/22-02/10/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

      

Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades: