CAPIS Morning Note – 02/09/24: S&P 500 Looks To Open Above 5,000

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 0.06% at 4997.91 from Wednesday higher by 0.82% at 4995.06. The overnight high was hit at 5026.25 at 7:05 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5013 at 9:00 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 13 points as of 7:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 0.06% at 4997.91 from Wednesday higher by 0.82% at 4995.06. The overnight high was hit at 5026.25 at 7:05 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5013 at 9:00 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 13 points as of 7:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 18.70 from 20.10.  The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 7.50 points at 7:25 a.m. EST.

Executive Summary: A quiet end to the week. It looks like we will open above 5,000. Can it hold and become support? If like other levels, then the answer is yes.
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is due out after the close for the period from January 11th through January 29th and during this time the S&P 500 rose 3.09%.
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Lorie Logan 1:30 p.m. EST

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: VRSN +0.74, CLSK +0.40, MSI +0.27, BILL +0.23, PCTY +0.21, BYD +0.19, OMCL +0.18, AFRM +0.18, TTWO +0.18, ILMN +0.13, SYNA +0.12, MHK +0.10, ATR +0.09, G +0.08, POWI +0.07, DXCM +0.07, PI +0.07, RAMP +0.07, LGF.A +0.06, SPSC +0.05, ONTO +0.05, EXPE +0.05, MWA +0.05, DOCS +0.05, TFII +0.04, NET +0.03, FE +0.02, TEX +0.02, PECO +0.02, STEP +0.01, PEAK +0.01, PINS +0.01, CDP +0.01, REG +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: MTD (0.70), CPRI (0.53), SXT (0.04), ESE (0.03), PRO (0.02), LEG (0.01), FLO (0.01)  of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Metagenomi (MGX-Nasdaq) prices 6.25 million share IPO at $15.00 per share, at the low end of the $15-17 expected range.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Helix Acquisition Corp. II (HLXB) Announces Pricing of Upsized $160 Million Initial Public Offering.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • EVOK: Announces Pricing of Underwritten Public Offering of up to $30 Million.
    • IVP: Announces Pricing of $4.0 Million Public Offering.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • FTV: Pricing of Offering of Euro-denominated Senior Notes.
    • WYNN: Pricing of Private Add-On Offering of $400 Million Aggregate Principal Amount of Wynn Resorts Finance 7.125% Senior Notes due 2031.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CRIS: FORM S-3 – $300,000,000 Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • BTAI: Has commenced an underwritten public offering of $60.0 million of shares of its common stock or, in lieu of common stock to certain investors that so choose, pre-funded warrants to purchase shares of its common stock. (BAC and Truist bookmanagers) (stock down -40%)
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • DHAI: Announces $1.5 million Private Placement Financing from OrbiMed.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • PEAK: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • WYNN: Announces Commencement of Tender Offer for Cash by Wynn Las Vegas, LLC for its 5.500% Senior Notes due 2025.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • NET: +20% Earnings 
    • LEU: +10% Earnings 
    • CLSK: +8.5% Earnings 
    • BYD: +5.5% Earnings 
    • PI: +4.5% Earnings
    • BTAI: -42% Proposed Public Offering – $60.0 million of shares.. BAC and Truist bookmanagers 
    • EXPE: -13% Earnings 
    • AFRM: -11% Earnings 
    • PLCE: -11% Talk hired advisers to increase their cash reserves
    • TTWO: -10% Earnings 
    • PCTY: -9.5% Earnings 
    • PINS: -9% Earnings 
    • MSI: -5% Earnings 
    • TEX: -3.5% Earnings 
    • LEG: -3.5% Earnings 
    • DXCM: -2.5% Earnings
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: PINS, TTWO, EXPE, ILMN, CLSK, NET  (CNBC)
    • Pinterest (PINS) shares drop on weak outlook, revenue miss. (CNBC)
    • Affirm’s (AFRM) stock falls after earnings, but analysts say not to sweat the outlook. (MarketWatch)
    • Cloudflare (NET) stock jumps 21% on earnings beat as the company wins larger deals. (CNBC)
    • Arm’s (ARM) post-earnings pop leaves stock trading at over 100% premium to Nvidia (NVDA). (CNBC)
    • Hedge Funds to Share More on Their Strategies Under SEC Rule. (Bloomberg)
    • President Putin Tells Tucker Carlson He Is Open to Exchange of WSJ’s Evan Gershkovich for Russian Prisoner. (WSJ)
    • OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is reportedly negotiating to raise $5-$7 trillion for a project to expand global chip-making capacity, crucial for AI advancements. Global sales of chips were $527B last year.
    • BofA’s Hartnett Says Stock Rally Close to Triggering Sell Signal. A speedy rally that sent US stocks on a record-setting spree is now close to triggering several sell signals, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett. The bank’s custom bull-and-bear indicator rose to 6.8 in the week through Feb. 7, Hartnett wrote in a note. A reading above 8 would suggest the bullish trend has run too far, flashing a contrarian signal to sell, the strategist said.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Cloudflare (NET) Appoints Mark Anderson as President of Revenue.
    • Enerpac Tool Group (EPAC) Anthony Colucci is stepping down as CFO to assume an executive role at a private equity firm.
    • Expedia Group (EXPE) announces the appointment of Ariane Gorin as Expedia Group’s CEO.
    • GoDaddy (GDDY) Jared Sine joins GoDaddy as Chief Strategy & Legal Officer.
    • MoneyHero Group (MNY) Announces Resignation of Chief Financial Officer.
    • PetMed Express (PETS) plans to restate certain financial statements citing accounting errors, will delay 10-Q filing.
    • Secoo (SECO) Receives Additional Delist Notice from Nasdaq.
    • SoFi Technologies (SOFI) discloses that Arun Pinto joined SoFi as Chief Risk Officer.
    • Western Digital (WDC) to delay 10-Q filing.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • CBIZ (CBZ) authorized the continuation of the Company’s Share Repurchase Program
    • Motorola Solutions (MSI) announces $2 billion increase to the share repurchase authorization.
    • Simon Properties (SPG) announces new $2.0 billion common stock repurchase program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • AgEagle Aerial Systems (UAVS) Announces Effectiveness of Reverse Stock Split.
    • Precision BioSciences (DTIL) Plans To Effect 1-For-30 Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Atlas Energy Solutions (AESI) raises quarterly dividend by 5% to $0.21 per share.
    • Ametek (AME) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.28 per share from $0.25 per share.
    • CBL & Assoc (CBL) increases quarterly cash dividend 6.7% to $0.40 per share from $0.375 per share.
    • Community Healthcare Trust (CHCT) raises annual dividend by $0.01 to $1.83 per share.
    • Enbridge (ENB) beats by $0.14; ups dividend 3.1%.
    • First Bancorp (FBP) increases quarterly cash dividend 14% to $0.16 per share from $0.14 per share.
    • Genpact (G) declared a quarterly cash dividend for the first quarter of 2024 of $0.1525 per common share, an 11% increase.
    • Hennessy Advisors, Inc. (HNNA) Reports 7% Increase in Quarterly Earnings Per Share and Announces Quarterly Dividend.
    • PepsiCo (PEP) today announced a 7 percent increase in its annualized dividend to $5.42 per share from $5.06 per share.
    • Primerica (PRI) increases quarterly dividend 15% to $0.75 per share from $0.65 per share.
    • Telus (TU) raises dividend 7.1%.
    • Victory Capital (VCTR) Board increased regular quarterly cash dividend by 5% to $0.335 per share.
    • Weyerhaeuser (WY) raises quarterly dividend by 5.3% to $0.19 per share.
  • Assets Under Management – January MoM: CNS $79.3 billion down 3.8 billion.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +9, Dow Jones +42, NASDAQ +50, and Russell 2000 +8.  (as of 8:00 a.m. EST).  Asia is higher while Europe is higher ex the CAC this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.45 from 13.42 this morning.  Gold lower, Silver higher and Copper lower this morning for the second day in a row. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.175% from 4.123% yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $47,233 from $44,823  higher by +3.85% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Real Estate, Energy, Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials of note.

The S&P 500 crossed 5000 for the first time in intraday trading, the latest milestone for a U.S. stock market powered by a resilient economy and subsiding inflation.  The broad U.S. stock index popped over 5000 in the final minute of trading Thursday before settling slightly below the mark. The S&P 500’s daily advance of 0.1% was enough for another record close, its ninth of 2024.  The benchmark index is up 4.8% in 2024, helped by gains in shares of companies ranging from technology to healthcare to financials.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1%, or about 49 points, to its 11th record close of 2024. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallied 0.2%, leaving it 1.6% off its record close from November 2021. (WSJ – edited by QPI)

 

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: FTS +0.20, EMBC +0.15, PRLB +0.14, ENB +0.14, PEP +0.06, ROAD +0.06, PAA +0.06, NWL +0.05, ESNT +0.05, AMCX +0.04, TU +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: TIXT of note.
  • Misses: COOP (0.67), CTLT (0.22), MGA (0.13), WPC (0.02) of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: BILL, AFRM, MSI, NET, MWA, PI, EXPE of note.
  • Negative Guidance: ARW, RBC, OMCL, DOCS, SPSC, PCTY, TTWO, G, MHK, FLO, CTRE, PEAK, LEG, PRO, FE, MTD, VRSN, PRLB, PLCE, TIXT, NWL of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:  

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: NET +25%, CLSK +18%, LEU +16%, NVX +7%, HIVE +6%, MWA +5%, PI +4%, ADAG +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: BTAI -39%, EXPE -15%, AFRM -10%, PCTY -8%, TTWO -8%, PINS -8%, PRO -8%, NGL -6%, FLO -5%, ABNB -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:   Biden’s Attempt to Address Memory Issue Backfires With New Gaffe. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Hedge Fund Manager David Einhorn says markets are fundamentally broken by passive investing and quant investing. (Bloomberg)
  • Hedge funds are enjoying a higher short rebate making shorting more profitable. (Bloomberg)
  • China’s property crisis is starting to ripple across the world. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg: Balance of Power: The Supreme Court hears Trump Ballot questions. (Podcast)
  • NPR Marketplace: FCC cracks down on AI robo calls. (Podcast)
  • NY Times Daily: Even Liberal Justices question kicking Trump off the ballot. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Cryptocurrencies saving the world from monetary meltdown? (Podcast)

Podcasts are presented to provide interesting viewpoints on current issues. We do not necessarily support each viewpoint. They are more meant to get you thinking!

Moving Average Update: 100%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby, 1:00 p.m. EST
    • The President hosts Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany for a bilateral meeting at the White House, 3:00 p.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route to New Castle, Delaware, 5:40 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives in New Castle, Delaware, 6:35 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data is due out after the close for the period from January 11th through January 29th and during this time the S&P 500 rose 3.09%.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: 

  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Lorie Logan 1:30 p.m. EST

M&A Activity and News: 

  • Masonite International (DOOR): Owens Corning (OC) will acquire all outstanding shares of DOOR for $133.00 per share in cash.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Nuvama India Investor Conference (starting over the weekend)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: SGH
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: None of note.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • International Stroke Conference – Abstracts
    • European Association for Haemophilia and Allied Disorders Congress
    • Conferences Starting over the Weekend:
      • International Petroleum Technology Conference
      • Snowbird MedTech, Digital Health, Life Science & Diagnostic Tools Conference
      • Unearthed Natural Resources Conference
      • AFA Warfare Symposium
        • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
          • WORLDSymposium

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: