CAPIS Morning Note – 02/08/24: 5,000 Close On The S&P 500 Today?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.82% at 4995.06 from Tuesday higher by 0.29% at 4954.23. The overnight high was hit at 5016.25 at 6:05 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5006 at 6:25 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 10 points as of 7:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.82% at 4995.06 from Tuesday higher by 0.29% at 4954.23. The overnight high was hit at 5016.25 at 6:05 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 5006 at 6:25 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 10 points as of 7:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 20.10 from 20.60.  The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -8.25 points at 6:30 a.m. EST.

Executive Summary: Yesterday’s 10-Year Auction went well. Today is another challenge at 1:00 p.m. when there is a 30-Year Auction. A sudden breakdown in TLT would be a clue of an auction gone bad. Pay attention at 1:00 p.m. The other milestone today is can the S&P 500 clear 5,000.
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 11:30 a.m. EST
  • Treasury holds a 30-Year Auction today at 1:00 p.m. EST.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: EG +10.54, ALL +1.88, WYNN +0.76, MCK +0.70, CPA +0.55, SLF +0.51, MUSA +0.51, RRR +0.50, MKSI +0.33, RPD +0.24, HMN +0.24, DIS +0.23, ENS +0.19, MMS +0.15, QLYS +0.15, PAYC +0.15, GL +0.15, STC +0.14, NFG +0.13, ACLS +0.13, EHC +0.12, PYPL +0.12, AZTA +0.10, RDN +0.10, ORLY +0.10, BKH +0.09, ASGN +0.09, EFX +0.07, CSGS +0.06, OSCR +0.06, STE +0.05, NWSA +0.05, MC +0.05, NTGR +0.05, COTY +0.05, TTGT +0.05, CXW +0.05, MOH +0.04, CFLT +0.04, ARM +0.04, RRX +0.04, MPWR +0.03, FR +0.02, OHI +0.02, EGP +0.02, PYCR +0.02, CUZ +0.01, QNST +0.01, FLNC +0.01, MAA +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: VKTX +0.00, GPRO +0.00, FORM +0.00, PDM +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: CMP (0.17), WMG (0.13), NVST (0.05), FAF (0.04), FLT (0.04), APPS (0.02), MAT (0.02), KN (0.01) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • Kyverna Therapeutics (KYTX-Nasdaq) prices 14.5 million share IPO at $22.00 per share, above the $17-19 expected range.
    • Perfect Moment (PMNT) Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • BlueRiver Acquisition Corp. (BLUA) Receives Commencement of Delisting Notice From NYSE American; Announces Extension of Merger Agreement.
    • TG Venture Acquisition Corp. (TGVC) Announces Change of Date of its Special Meeting.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • AUTL: Prices 58,333,336 American Depositary Shares at a price of $6.00 per ADS.
    • SANA: prices $165M offering. 17.27M shares + warrants at $5.50 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • HI: Announces Commencement and Pricing of $500 Million Senior Notes Offering.
    • OPI: Prices $300 Million of Senior Secured Notes Due 2029.
    • RCI: Announces Pricing of US$2.5 billion Offering of US Dollar Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • AEYE: Filed Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf .. 2.82M Common Stock.
    • SANA: Has commenced an underwritten public offering of $125.0 million of shares of its common stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • LUCY: Filed Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • L: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • SNAP: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • CURO: Announces Expiration and Results of Consent Solicitation for its 7.500% Senior 1.5 Lien Secured Notes Due 2028.
    • CZR: Announces Satisfaction and Discharge and Related Redemption of 6.250% Senior Secured Notes Due 2025.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • ARM: +27% Earnings 
    • OSCR: +23% Earnings 
    • CFLT +21% Earnings 
    • BLBD: +12% Earnings 
    • DIS: +6% Earnings 
    • WMG: +5% Earnings 
    • RRR: +4% Earnings 
    • WYNN: +3% Earnings 
    • PYPL: -8% Earnings
    • QLYS: -8% Earnings
    • ACLS: -7% Earnings
    • PAYC: -7% Earnings    
    • NVST: -5% Earnings 
    • ORLY: -4.5% Earnings 
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: DIS, PYPL, WYNN, ARM, OSCR, ALL, MPWR (CNBC)
    • Disney (DIS) Earnings Top Views on Cost Cuts, Parks; Shares Climb. (Bloomberg)
    • Walt Disney (DIS) and Epic Games to create expansive and open games and entertainment universe connected to Fortnite; Disney to invest $1.5 billion for an equity stake in Epic Games.
    • Arm (ARM) shares soar as much as 41% after chip designer gives strong forecast, says AI is boosting sales. (CNBC)
    • PayPal (PYPL) issues disappointing guidance even as fourth-quarter earnings top estimates. (CNBC)
    • Alaska Air (ALK) and Hawaiian (HA) each received Second Request from the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice.
    • Warner Music to cut 600 jobs, or 10% of staff. (CNBC)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Murphy Oil (MUR) Board of Directors has appointed Eric M. Hambly to the role of President and Chief Operating Officer and E. Ted Botner to Executive Vice President.
    • Paycom Software (PAYC) announces the promotion of Chris Thomas, former COO, to the role of Co-CEO.
    • Recursion Pharmaceuticals (RXRX) Chief Business Officer transitioned into a new role as a Senior Strategic Advisor.
    • S&P Global (SPGI) announced the appointment of Chief Accounting Officer, Christopher Craig, as interim Chief Financial Officer.
    • UnitedHealth (UNH) President/COO to retire.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • FleetCor (FLT) increase share buyback auth by $1 billion.
    • Gates Industrial (GTES) authorizes $100 million share repurchase program.
    • Interpublic (IPG) announces new share repurchase program of up to $320 million of common stock. (see Dividends)
    • PayPal (PYPL) sees shares repurchases of at least $5 billion in FY24.
    • Qualys (QLYS) Board approved $200 million increase to the buyback program.
    • S&P Global (SPGI) authorized the repurchase of shares totaling up to $2.4 billion. (see Dividends)
    • Vinci Partners (VINP) Announces Share Buyback Plan.
    • Walt Disney (DIS) announces new share repurchase program target of $3 billion. (see Dividends)
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Allegion (ALLE) increases quarterly dividend to $0.48 per share from $0.45 per share.
    • Avista Corp. (AVA) raises quarterly dividend by $0.015 per share to $0.475 per share.
    • Brookfield Corp. (BN) Quarterly dividend increased by 14% to $0.08.
    • CME Group (CME) increases quarterly cash dividend 5% to $1.15 per share from $1.10 per share.
    • Century Communities (CCS) increases quarterly cash dividend 13% to $0.26 per share from $0.23 per share.
    • CEMEX S.A. (CX) reports Q4 results; proposes the initiation of a quarterly dividend program.
    • First Industrial Realty (FR) increases dividend 15.6%.
    • Hershey Foods (HSY) increases quarterly cash dividend to $1.37 per share from $1.192 per share.
    • Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) increases quarterly cash dividend 7% to $0.45 per share from $0.42 per share.
    • Interpublic (IPG) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.33 per share from $0.31 per share.
    • Monolithic Power (MPWR) has approved an increase in the quarterly cash dividend from $1.00 per share to $1.25 per share.
    • S&P Global (SPGI) authorized a quarterly cash dividend of $0.91,
    • Stifel (SF) Raises Quarterly Common Stock Cash Dividend By 17% and  Declares Preferred Stock Cash Dividend.
    • Tempur Sealy Int’l (TPX) increases quarterly cash dividend 18% to $0.13 per share from $0.11 per share.
    • Thomson REuters (TRI) announced today that its Board of Directors approved a 10% or $0.20 per share annualized increase in the dividend to $2.16 per common share
    • Walt Disney (DIS) increases dividend by 50%.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -7, Dow Jones +5, NASDAQ -21, and Russell 2000 -4.  (as of 7:55 a.m. EST).  Asia is higher while Europe is higher ex the FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are at 13,42 from 13.50 from this morning.  Gold lower, Silver higher and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.123% from 4.131% yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $44,823 from $42,900 higher by +1.60% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Communication Services, Financial, Basic Materials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials of note.

Stocks marched higher on Wednesday.   The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, finishing at 4995—its eighth record close of the year—as it climbed closer toward the milestone level of 5000. Nine of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors finished the day in the green. The Dow Industrials added 0.4%, or 156 points, also reaching a record high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.9%.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

 

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close:

  • Friday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: THC +1.09, TDG +0.75, AZN +0.71, CYBR +0.34, BDC +0.33, WMS +0.31, COP +0.31, SPB +0.25, BCE +0.22, MAS +0.17, TPR +0.17, HOG +0.15, ARES +0.12, GTES +0.11, WEX +0.11, HAE +0.10, TROW +0.10, SNA +0.09, UAA +0.08, CIGI +0.07, HSY +0.07, TRI +0.07, SAVE +0.06, ZBH +0.05, BN +0.05, IPG +0.04, ICE +0.04, DT +0.04, LSPD +0.03, CCJ +0.03, SWI +0.03, KVUE +0.03, BAX +0.02, PBH +0.02, RXO +0.02, LITE +0.01, DTE +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: KIM +0.00, ITT +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: MT (4.48), LNC (0.55), ABG (0.55), PM (0.08), BTU (0.06), BWA (0.05), DUK (0.02), SPGI (0.02), AXTA (0.01), TPX (0.01) of note.
  • Still to Report: ARW, NSP, K, MDU, NNN, PATK, RL, RBC, REPL of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: MPWR, OSCR, DIS, ARM, UTI, PBH, HAE, DT, ZBH, ITT, SAVE, TRI, WMS, TPR, HOG, BCE, MAS, CYBR of note.
  • Negative Guidance: ACLS, PAYC, FLT, GPRO, QLYS, TTGT, NTGR, APPS, QNST, PYPL, PYCR, MAA, PEAK, EFX, ENS, AXTA, THC, BWA, HSY, PM, TDG, SPGI, LITE, GTES of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:  

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: CFLT +26%, ARM +24%, OSCR +23%, BLBD +8%, ACTG +8%, MPWR +7%, BTI +6%, DIS +6%, WMG +6%, VKTX +5%, GL +5%, QNST +4%, RDN +4%, RRR +4%, WYNN +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: TENX -51%, APPS -16%, ACLS -9%, PYPL -9%, QLYS -8%, GPRO -7%, RPD -7%, PAYC -7%, CMP -7%, AZN -6%, NVST -5%, ORLY -5%, MKSI -4%, UHAL -4%, EG -4% of note.

Insider Action: CRMT, CHTR sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Jeffrey Epstein used Go-Between to Contact Jes Staley at Barclays.  (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Walt Disney (DIS) to invest $1.5 billion in Epic Games and their game Fortnite. (Bloomberg)
  • US Futures fluctuate with S&P 500 on verge of 5,000: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Senators to questions drug makers today over high prices, JNJ MRK BMY. (CNBC)
  • Supreme Court to hear oral arguments on the Trump challenge to the Colorado ballot ban. (CNBC)
  • 99% Bond Wipeout hands Hedge Funds a lesson on China. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: How Crypto is winning over Wall Street. (Podcast)
  • NPR Marketplace: What does it take to protect children online. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Millennial housing crisis.  (Podcast)

Podcasts are presented to provide interesting viewpoints on current issues. We do not necessarily support each viewpoint. They are more meant to get you thinking!

Moving Average Update: Up to 91% from 88%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:30 p.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route to Leesburg, Virginia, 2:55 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives in Leesburg, Virginia, 3:20 p.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks at the House Democratic Caucus Issues Conference, 4:00 p.m. EST
    • The President departs Leesburg, Virginia en route to the White House, 5:35 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 6:00 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EST
  • Wholesale Inventories 10:00 a.m. EST
  • EIA natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: 

  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin 11:30 a.m. EST
  • Senate Banking Committee releases testimony from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ahead of hearing today. (Release)

M&A Activity and News: 

  • CBIZ (CBZ) acquires tax and accounting service provider, Erickson, Brown & Kloste.
  • SPX Corp (SPXC) acquires privately held Ingénia Technologies for ~CA$405 million in cash, including acquired real estate.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Morgan Stanley Chemicals, Agriculture, and Packaging Corporate Access Days
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Guggenheim Biotechnology Conference
        • BTG – Brazil CEO Conference
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: ADVM BZH GEOS ENSC KC OPTT SRDX TSN
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: FFIV RICK WNNR
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • American Heart Association 2024 International Stroke Conference
    • BioCapital Europe 2024
    • Chiplet Summit
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • WORLDSymposium
        • Emerging Growth Conference
        • F5 AppWorld
        • The Annual Meat Evolution Leaders Summit

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: