CAPIS Morning Note – 02/08/22: Negotiations Continue On Ukraine As French President Macron Heads To Ukraine. Futures Modestly Lower.

Please Note: CAPIS to Hold its February Research Briefing on Feb 17th with Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton. Register here Overnight Summary: Asia was higher. So far Europe is stronger. S&P 500 rose to a high of 4486 at 7:00 p.m. EST then fell to 4471 at 12:45 a.m. EST before rising to 4490 at 4:30…

Please Note: CAPIS to Hold its February Research Briefing on Feb 17th with Fairlead Strategies’ Katie Stockton. Register here

Overnight Summary: Asia was higher. So far Europe is stronger. S&P 500 rose to a high of 4486 at 7:00 p.m. EST then fell to 4471 at 12:45 a.m. EST before rising to 4490 at 4:30 a.m. EST and then falling to 4470 at 7:20 a.m. EST. With all this movement, the range was only 20 points which is much lower than we have seen in the last several weeks in the overnight session.

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: THC +1.21, SSD +0.66, TTWO +0.62, AMGN +0.35, TDC +0.30, PFG +0.20, SPG +0.20, ACLS +0.18, AOSL +0.16, ACM +0.12, SNCY +0.08, CHGG +0.07, DHT +0.07, LEG +0.04, VRNS +0.03.
  • Flat: BRX +0.00, KFRC +0.00, PDM +0.00.
  • Misses: SLQT (1.43), RMBS (0.32), NUAN (0.14), KMT (0.03).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • LIV Capital Acquisition Corp. II (LIVBU) Announces Pricing of $100 Million Initial Public Offering.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CBAN: Commencement of Common Stock Offering.. $52.5Million.. Hovde underwriter.
    • RENO: Filed Form S-3.. 4,383,334 Shares of Common Stock.
    • VERA: Commencement of Public Offering of Class A Common Stock.. JPM, Cowen and Eevercore bookmanager.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.
  • Note Offerings Filed:
    • CRGY: Pricing of Upsized $200 Million Private Placement of Additional 7.250% Senior Notes Due 2026.
    • ABR: Closing of $75 Million Offering of Additional Shares of 6.25% Series F Fixed-to-Floating Rate Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Stock.
    • MSC: Proposed Senior Secured Notes Offering.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: VLDR +70%, CHGG +9%, TDC +7%, BOWL +4%.
    • Trading Down: SLQT -35%, EHTH -9%, EDIT -7%.
  • News After The Close:
    • U.S. to lift Trump-era tariff on Japanese steel. (NUE, STLD, CLF, X, MT, CMC) (CBS)
    • Raytheon (RTX) Tech’s Missiles Division CFO, Other Leaders Depart in Shakeup. (Bloomberg)
    • Tesla (TSLA) subpoenaed by SEC again days after Elon Musk tweet (The Hill).
    • Peter Thiel to step down from board of Facebook parent Meta (FB) (CNBC)
    • General Dynamics (GD) wins $229 million U.S. Army contract.
    • Supreme Court votes with Republicans 5-4 on Voting Rights Act challenge in Alabama. Chief Justice Roberts sides with the liberal side of the court.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • CareMax (CMAX) appoints Jose R. Rodriquez to Chair of the company’s board of directors, succeeding Richard A. Barasch who resigned.
    • CENTOGENE (CNTG) Announces CFO Transition and Appointment of Miguel Coego Rios as EVP Finance & Legal and Interim CFO.
    • Editas Medicine (EDIT) discloses that Lisa Michaels’ employment as CMO has been terminated effective immediately.
    • Glaukos (GKOS) appoints Joseph Gilliam as COO, effective April 1.
    • NESR (NESR) Announces Appointment of Stefan Angeli as CFO, Reschedules Earnings Conference Call.
    • PTON To name Barry McCarthy, former Spotify CFO, as CEO; Plans to cut ~20% of jobs. John Foley moves to Executive Chairman.
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • Bowlero Corp. (BOWL) Announces $200 million Share and Warrant Repurchase Program.
    • DuPont (DD) Board Approves $1 billion Share-BuyBack Program.
    • Vishay (VSH) adopts Stockholder Return Policy; expects to return at least $100 million to stockholders in 2022.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements:
    • Danaos (DAC) increases quarterly dividend 50% to $0.75 per share.
    • DuPont (DD) raises quarterly divided by 10%.
    • IRADIMED (IRMD) Announces Special $1.00 Per Share Cash Dividend.
    • Principal Fincl (PFG) announces dividend.
    • Yum! Brands, Inc. (YUM) Announces 14% Increase in Quarterly Dividend to $0.57 Per Share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -2, Dow Jones +37, NASDAQ -22 and Russell 2000 -0.9.  Asia higher ex Hong Kong and Europe higher ex Germany. VIX Futures are at 23.70 from 25.10 yesterday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at 1.943% from 1.923%.  Bitcoin is at $43,364 from $42,749  down -1.66%. As of 8:21 a.m. EST

Monday’s Action – 02/07/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Basic Materials, Energy, Healthcare, Financial, Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Technology of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy and Financial of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive and Utilities of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Financial, and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Real Estate, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Financial of note.

Who shut off the lights early? Markets pulled back in the final hour of trading to finish mostly lower.  UNG was down 5.37%.  Updated 02/07/22 close.

 

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: CMG, GFS, STE, YUMC, PEAK, FLT, PAYC, UDR, TRMB, ENPH, OMC, CCK, ATO, FMC, LYFT, JKHY, QGEN, TFII, WYNN, AIZ, EGP, DOCS, VOYA, XPO, HLI, NEWR, VVV, INSP, DEI, NCR, HIW, ONTO, APPS, STEP, MNDT, CNO, HUBG, SAVE, LBRT, TSE, ESE, CMP, CRSR, ATGE, ICHR, VREX, MODN, QNST, SCSC, DCPH of note.
  • Wednesday Before the Open: CVS, CME, HMC, YUM, CERN, CDW, FOXA, DKNG, BG, ARCC, TEVA, LAD, PAG, NNN, CCJ, REYN, IIVI, BXMT, ATHM, SITC, BDC, MSGE, CRTO, RDWR, AVYA, HCSG, TGI, CHEF, TPB of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: AGCO +1.32, HLI +0.73, IT +0.57, HOG +0.48, FCFS +0.41, VIRT +0.39, KKR +0.38, TFII +0.34, PFE +0.21, MBUU +0.14, TMHC +0.12, HAE +0.11, LEA +0.09, DD +0.08, WMG +0.07, POLY +0.07, COTY +0.06, CARR +0.05, CNC +0.04, CNHI +0.04, AVNT +0.03, SPGI +0.03, CTS +0.02, NVT +0.02, EPC +0.01, FISV +0.01, BP +0.01.
  • Flat: ARMK +0.00, NRZ +0.00, VSH +0.00, WTW +0.00.
  • Misses: INCY (0.76), CVE (0.60), PTON (0.47), TDG (0.17), SYY (0.13), TRI (0.03), J (0.02), MAS (0.02).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: ON, AOSL, KFRC, ACLS, CHGG, TDC, CNC, AVNT, HOG, FISV, AGCO.
  • Negative Guidance: CRNC, GTES, EMN, SNCY, TTWO, THC, SPG, EPC, IT, LEA, PFE, POLY, PTON.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 02/07/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: VLDR +40%, CHGG +8%, SSD +8%, TDC +7%, ACLS +6%, BOWL +5%, TFII +4%, SNCY +4%.
  • Gap Down: SLQT -50%, EDIT -13%, KFRC -7%, EHTH -6%, IT -3%, AXSM -3%, TTWO -3%.

Insider Action: PYPL, CALX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stocks sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 02/07/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: PTON, NVAX, PFE, HOG, CHGG, TTWO, NVDA, VLDR, GRUB, GES. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things to Know This Morning (CNBC)
  • Covid cases at 73,625 from 102,997 with hospitalizations at 104,902 from 126,699. Tuesdays see a partial release as many states do not report weekend data.(CDC)
  • Russian President Putin does not rule out diplomatic  discussions but still may invade Ukraine. U.S. and Germany united and Nord Stream 2 pipeline will end if Russia goes into Ukraine. (NYT)
  • French President Macron heads to Ukraine to meet with leaders in Kyiv. (AP)
  • Chinese state funds stepped in to purchase stocks when the CSI 3000 was down -2.4% taking the loss to -0.6%. (Bloomberg)
  • President Trump physically shredded many documents after he read them and was told not to by two Chief of Staffs. The President also took several boxes of documents after he left the White House. (CNN)
  • Peter Thiel’s board resignation from Facebook allows him to go all in on far right politics. (Bloomberg)
  • Several states to end mask mandates in schools and indoor places – Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Oregon and California. (NYT)
  • Ark Mgmt sells 4 million shares of Twitter (TWTR) into earnings on Thursday. (Bloomberg)
  • Rumble offers Joe Rogan $100 million to leave Spotify (SPOT). (WSJ)
  • Nvidia (NVDA) and Softbank (SFTBY) end bid for Arm Limited.
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at Frontier (ULCC) and Spirit Airlines (SAVE) merger, noting may not get approval.  Bumble (BMBL) buys Fruitz, a French dating app, which is its first purchase.

Moving Average Update:

  • The score remains at 30%.  Updated 02/07/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, 10:15 a.m. EST
    • The President has lunch with The Vice President, 12:00 p.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks on his Administration’s work to rebuild our manufacturing to make more in America, create good-paying union jobs, and lower energy costs for Americans; the Secretary of Transportation and the Secretary of Energy, 1:45 p.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 2:00 p.m. EST
    • The President and The Vice President receive the Weekly Economic Briefing, 2:45 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • NFIB Small Business Index 6:00 a.m. EST
  • International Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EST
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST 

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • CooperCompanies (COO) to Acquire Cook® Medical’s Reproductive Health Business.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Cowen Aerospace, Defense & Industrials 43rd Annual Conference 2022 (02/08/22-02/10/22)
    • Stifel Biopharma Ski Summit
    • Stifel Transportation and Logistics Conference 2022 (02/08/22-02/09/22)
    • Stifel Global Carbon Conference 2022
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Citi’s Psychedelic Drug Call Series 2022 (02/02/22-02/08/22)
  • Company Meetings: CVGI.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AMGN, RAIL, SNV, TARS.
  • Update: F.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • 121 Mining Investment Online EMEA 2022 (02/08/22-02/10/2)
    • 2nd Winter Wonderland Annual Best Ideas Virtual Conference 2022 (02/08/22-02/11/22)
    • MicroCap Rodeo Best Ideas Buy-Side Winter Wonderland Conference 2022 (02/08/22-02/11/22)
    • International Builders Show (IBS) 2022 (02/08/22-02/10/22)
    • International Petroleum Corporation Capital Markets Day 2022
    • American Heart Association International Stroke Conference 
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • BiotechGate Digital Partnering 2022 (02/07/22-02/11/22) 
        • 18th Annual WORLD Symposium 2022 (02/07/22-02/11/22) 
        • Summit For Clinical Ops Executives (SCOPE) 2022 02/07/22-02/10/22)
        • Otolaryngology (ARO) 45th Annual Mid-Winter Meeting 2022 (02/05/22-02/09/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

      

Monday’s Upgrades and Downgrades: