CAPIS Morning Note – 02/05/24: Markets On Edge After Powell’s Comments On 60 Minutes

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 1.07% at 4958.61 from Thursday higher by 1.25% at 4906.19. The overnight high was hit at 4980 at 7:10 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4963.75 at 4:55 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 16 points as of 7:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 1.07% at 4958.61 from Thursday higher by 1.25% at 4906.19. The overnight high was hit at 4980 at 7:10 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4963.75 at 4:55 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 16 points as of 7:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 20.10 from 20.30.  The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -7.75 points at 7:25 a.m. EST.

Executive Summary: Big news over the weekend was Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s interview on 60 Minutes. It was not the most confident displace of the Chairman’s thinking and markets are modestly lower. This is a quiet week for economic data. Fed Speak is back on the table.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Aquaron Acquisition Corp. (AQU) Announces Additional Contribution to Trust Account to Extend Period to Consummate Business Combination.
    • Plutonian Acquisition Corp. (PLTN) Announces Additional Contribution to Trust Account to Extend Period to Consummate Business Combination.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • MARK: FORM S-1 – 20,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • ONDS: Filed Form S-3.. 10,200,000 Shares of Common Stock underlying Warrants.
    • STKH: Filed Form F-3.. 36,219,286 American Depositary Shares, each representing ten (10) Ordinary Shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • ENTX: Filed Form S-3.. 16,500,894 Ordinary Shares offered by the Selling Shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • GNLX: Files for $300 million mixed securities shelf offering.
    • RVPH: Files for $200 million mixed securities shelf offering.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • POST: Announces Commencement of Senior Secured Notes Offering.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Weekend:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: ATRA 106.7%, FGEN 99.3%, FATE 44.0%, ADAP 42.5%, ALLO 25.6%, AAOI 25.6%, KB 22.5%, SANM 22.2%, CMPR 22.0%, CVLT 19.3%, KURA 18.6%, MGNX 18.3%, SAIA 18.3%, INGN 17.7%, EW 17.7%, MMYT 17.1%, KPTI 17.0%, EZPW 16.4%.
    • Trading Down: GOL -54.5%, NYCB -42.0%, SBNY -27.8%, EXTR -25.8%, CAMP -23.7%, IRBT -23.0%, CREE -22.8%, PRTA -20.7%, ATGE -20.3%, MXL -19.8%, CALX -19.3%, MKTX -18.9%, INO -18.1%, EGHT -16.9%, GRTS -16.4%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • DJIA and SP 500 close at record highs.
    • “Today, at my direction, U.S. military forces struck targets in Iraq and Syria that the IRGC and affiliated militia use to attack U.S. forces. We do not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world. But to all those who seek to do us harm: We will respond”. US President Joe Biden 
    • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle Bowman: Rate cuts not yet necessary. (FullSpeech)
    • META Adds $197 Billion In Value, Biggest Gain In Market History. (Bloomberg)
    • Goldman (GS) Shakes Up Management Committee. (WSJ)
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • The Score: Stocks That Defined the Week – META, NSC, XOM, CVX, SOFI, GM, AMZN (WSJ)
    • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Tells ‘60 Minutes’ Fed Is Wary of Cutting Rates Too Soon. (Bloomberg)
    • Senate Reaches a Deal on Ukraine Aid and US Border, But Hardline Republicans Still a Threat. (Bloomberg)
    • Foxconn sees ‘slightly better’ 2024, warns on AI chip shortage. (Reuters)
    • TSLA: Piper Sandler has lowered its price target for Tesla to $225 from $295. They have also reduced their estimate for Tesla’s EV deliveries in 2024 to 1.93M from the previous estimate of 2.18M. Due to Tesla’s aging product lineup & more price cuts may be necessary.
    • Boeing (BA) Finds More Misdrilled Holes On 737 In Latest Setback. (Bloomberg)
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: CHEF, PM, PBR, VALE, XOM, CVX, CNQ, COP, EOG, OXY, SLB, VLO of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • 2seventy bio (TSVT) names William Baird as CEO; names Victoria Eatwell as CFO.
    • Allakos (ALLK) Chief Medical Officer to retire.
    • Bit Brother Limited (BETS) Receives Notice of Delisting from Nasdaq.
    • Cytokinetics (CYTK) CFO Ching Jaw to step down, effective Feb 23 to attend to a personal health condition.
    • Estee Lauder (EL) to cut 5% of workforce. (Bloomberg)
    • Lexeo Therapeutics (LXEO) Sandi See Tai has been promoted to Chief Development Officer.
    • Macerich (MAC) announced that Jackson Hsieh will become the President and Chief Executive.
    • NKLA: Ole Hoefelmann Appointed As President Of Nikola Energy.
    • SpringWorks Therapeutics (SWTX) Chief Development Officer Mary Smith to step down.
    • Sweetgreen (SG) names Rossann Williams as COO.
    • Solo Brands (DTC) appoints Laura Coffey to Chief Financial Officer.
    • Zscaler (ZS) COO Dali Rajic resigns, effective today.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • HighPeak Energy (HPK) announced a $75 million share repurchase authorization. (see Dividends)
    • JinkoSolar (JKS) Repurchased 400,000 ADSs under Its Extended Share Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Reverse Split stocks today VLCN 1/45 GTBP 1/30 FRGT 1/10
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • HighPeak Energy (HPK) announced a 60% increase to its quarterly dividend to $0.04 per share.
    • Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) announces 13% dividend increase.
    • Napco Security Systems (NSSC) beats by $0.08, beats on revs, increases quarterly dividend by 25%.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -5, Dow Jones -43, NASDAQ +1, and Russell 2000 -13.  (as of 7:59 a.m. EST).  Asia and Europe are higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.25 from 14.60 this morning.  Gold, Silver and Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.094% from 3.882% from Friday morning. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $43,109 from $43,160 higher by +0.95% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities, Real Estate, Basic Materials of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials Healthcare of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial Real Estate of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Financial Consumer Cyclicals Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, and Industrials Healthcare of note.

Megacap tech shares propelled the major stock indexes higher Friday while a stronger-than-expected jobs report shook the bond market.  The S&P 500 rose 1.1% to reach an all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 135 points, or 0.3%, closing at a record for the ninth time this year. The Nasdaq Composite added 1.7%. All three indexes notched a fourth consecutive week of gains. Friday’s monthly jobs report revealed an acceleration in hiring that blasted past economists’ expectations. Employers added a seasonally adjusted 353,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department reported, the strongest in a year. Wages also outpaced expectations, jumping 4.5% last month from a year earlier.  Bond yields surged. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note—a benchmark for borrowing costs ranging from mortgages to corporate loans—climbed to 4.03%, from 3.862% on Thursday. That was the biggest one-day increase in the 10-year yield since September 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: AMG +0.83, CAT +0.47, EL +0.34, TSN +0.28, CNA +0.25, IDXX +0.20, TKR +0.15, MCD +0.12, NSSC +0.08 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: SPHR (4.42), APD (0.18) of note.
  • Still to Report: ALGT, ON of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: EL of note.
  • Negative Guidance: APD, TKR of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:  

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: FDMT +27%, CTLT +13% of note.
  • Gap Down: APD -9%, CYTK -4% of note.

Insider Action:  sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.   sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Powell Tells “60 Minutes” Fed is Wary of Cutting Rates Too Soon. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Second  Most Shared Story: Big Oil’s optimism faces reality check in Tech obsessed market. (Bloomberg)
  • McDonald’s (MCD) sales growth with Mideast War. (Bloomberg)
  • Estee Lauder’s (EL) profits beat. (MarketWatch)
  • UBS calls for gold to hit $2,200 in 2024 and silver to join in on the rally. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: America’s debt spiral is nearing a critical threshold. (Podcast)
  • NPR Marketplace: Apple’s (AAPL) Vision Pro is finally here. What took so long? (Podcast)
  • NY Times Daily:  Comparing now to 1948 on Economics. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion:  Banking crisis? Market on edge. (Podcast)

Podcasts are presented to provide interesting viewpoints on current issues. We do not necessarily support each viewpoint. They are more meant to get you thinking!

Moving Average Update: Score bumps up to 88% from 80%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President departs Los Angeles, California en route to Las Vegas, Nevada, 2:10 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives in Las Vegas, Nevada, 3:05 p.m. EST
    • The President participates in a campaign event, 4:30 p.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks at a campaign event, 6:45 p.m. EST


  • S&P Global US Services PMI Composite Final 9:45 a.m. EST with prior at 51.40.
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI out at 10:00 a.m. EST with estimates of 52% against prior of 50.5%.
  • 3 & 6 Month Bill Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers

  • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 2:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity and News

  • Catalent (CTLT) to be acquired by Novo Holdings for $63.50 per share in cash, $16.5 Billion Deal.
  • Elanco Animal Health (ELAN): Merck (MRK) announced that it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire the aqua business of ELAN for $1.3 billion in cash.
  • Everbridge (EVBG) enters into definitive agreement to be acquired by Thoma Bravo for $1.5 billion or $28.60/share in cash.
  • Hamilton Beach Brands (HBB) acquired HealthBeacon PLC, a medical technology firm and strategic partner of the company; no financial terms disclosed.
  • Haynes Intl (HAYN) announces agreement to be acquired by North American Stainless.
  • HollySys (HOLI): Dazheng Group reaffirms commitment to acquire Hollysys at $29.50 per share.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Oppenheimer Winter CEO and Investor Summit
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: FFIE RGCO SEAT VRM 
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: BRTX FDMT RA VZ
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • 121 Mining Investment Cape Town
    • Clinical Trial Update Conference Call
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: