Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday higher by 1.25% at 4906.19 from Wednesday lower by -1.61% at 4845.65. The overnight high was hit at 4961.259 at 7:20 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4925.75 at 4:05 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 36 points as of 7:20 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 20.30 from 19.60. The average for May-January average was 20.88 from 20.87 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 32.75 points at 7:20 a.m. EST.
Executive Summary: Pretty simple, today is Job’s Friday. Do we begin the transition to slower growth or does the number defy the odds? If they come in strong, then that will create an issue for Fed Chairman Powell who has taken rate cuts off the table in March even though the Bond Market saw the 10-Year yield hit a new low since last June. Clearly, an important number and potential revisions ahead.
- January Nonfarm Payroll is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 175,000 from 214,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.8% from 3.7%.
- December Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to 0.3% from 2.6%.
- January University of Michigan Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to remain at 78.80%.
Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: DECK +3.63, NOV +1.11, CLX +1.07, HIG +0.62, POST +0.57, META +0.51, X +0.39, RGA +0.27, SKYW +0.27, AMZN +0.20, DLB +0.16, LPLA +0.12, TEAM +0.11, DXC +0.10, AAPL +0.08, HLI +0.07, CLFD +0.07, KMPR +0.06, SXI +0.06, COUR +0.06, OTEX +0.05, MCHP +0.04, HOLX +0.03, MTX +0.03, HUBG +0.02, VIAV +0.02, CPT +0.01, EMN +0.01, ENSG +0.01, SKX +0.01, LESL +0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: COLM (0.41), EXPO (0.03), PFSI (0.03), BZH (0.01), GEN (0.01) of note.
- IPOs Priced or News:
- Alto Neuroscience (ANRO-NYSE) prices 8.04 million share IPO at $16.00 per share, at the high end of the $14-16 expected range.
- Fractyl Health (GUTS-Nasdaq) prices 7,333,333 share IPO at $15.00 per share, at the midpoint of the $14-16 expected range.
- New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- Secondaries Priced: None of note.
- Notes Priced of note:
- RKLB: Prices offering of $300 million of 4.250% convertible senior notes due 2029.
- Common Stock filings/Notes:
- IKT: Form 8K.. entered into an At The Market Offering Agreement.
- PYPD: Filed Form F-3.. Up to 6,742,624 Ordinary Shares.
- VERA: Closing of Upsized Public Offering and Full Exercise of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares in Public Offering of Class A Common Stock.
- Direct Offering:
- PTN: Announces Closing of $10 Million Registered Direct Offering.
- Selling Shareholders of note:None of note.
- Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- ANVS: FORM S-3 – $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
- LIPO: FORM S-3 – $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
- SBFM: FORM S-1 – Mixed Shelf Offering.
- TPR: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
- VTS: FORM S-3 – $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering.
- Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:None of note.
- Tender Offer: None of note.
- Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:None of note.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close :
- After Hours Movers:
- META: +14% Earnings
- AMZN: +7% Earnings
- CLX: +7% Earnings
- DECK: +5.5% Earnings
- COUR: +4.5% Earnings
- TEAM: -10% Earnings
- SKX: -9% Earnings
- COLM: -5.5% Earnings
- AAPL: -3.5% Earnings
- MCHP: -3% Earnings
- News Items After the Close:
- Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: META, AMZN, AAPL SKX, DECK CLX, MCHP, COUR, AAPL. COLM (CNBC)
- META Shares Jump as Facebook Parent Initiates Dividend. (WSJ)
- Amazon (AMZN) reports better-than-expected results as revenue jumps 14%. (CNBC)
- Apple’s (AAPL) China Slump Deepens Even as Total Sales Grow Again. (Bloomberg)
- Apple (AAPL) stock falls after company gives outlook suggesting weak iPhone sales. (CNBC)
- Intel (INTC) Delays $20 Billion Ohio Project, Citing Slow Chip Market. (WSJ)
- Cybersecurity ‘incident’ dings Beazer Homes (BZH) sales. (MarketWatch)
- Columbia Sportswear (COLM) sees ‘challenging’ year ahead, as retailers slow to fill orders. (MarketWatch)
- Clorox (CLX) Boosts Outlook After Quick Rebound From Cyberattack. (Bloomberg)
- B of A: “.. Powell treated as paper tiger, markets not too bothered whether Fed cuts March or May, sees Fed as bullish asset prices unless and until: a) inflation accelerates .. to sharply reduce expected “scale” of rate cuts (still 150bps in 2024), b) ‘reason’ for Fed cuts shifts from fall in inflation to fall in employment .. negative payroll at this stage would obviously be big macro & market game-changer (hard landing probability just 5%) with ongoing bear markets in regional banks / commercial real estate ..” ([Hartnett] CQ CNBC)
- Apple (AAPL) strong quarter although China remains an overhang and “very conservative” March guide. Services robust and iPhone demand firm. With now 2.2 billion active devices up from 2 billion a year ago sets up for Cupertino to introduce AI with AI App Store and iPhone 16. Remain $250 PT. (Dan Ives Wedbush)
- Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- Deckers Outdoor (DECK) announces that Dave Powers has decided to retire as President and CEO; CCO Stefano Caroti to become President and CEO.
- DXC Technology (DXC) announces that the Company’s Board of Directors unanimously appointed Raul Fernandez as its President and Chief Executive Officer.
- Lakeland Industries (LAKE) appointed James M. Jenkins as Acting President and Chief Executive Officer in addition to his role as Executive Chairman.
- Norfolk Southern (NSC) announced that Ann A. Adams will be leaving her position as Executive Vice President and Chief Transformation Officer of the Company.
- Ryerson (RYI) appointed Stephen P. Larson as the Chair of the Board.
- Buyback Announcements or News:
- American Eagle (AEO) authorizes 30 million share repurchase program.
- Exponent (EXPO) increases stock share authorization by $61.6 mln to $100 million. (see Dividends below)
- Meta Platforms (META) announces $50 billion increase to share repurchase program. (see Dividends below) (Bloomberg)
- Stock Splits or News: None of note.
- Dividends Announcements or News:
- Baker Hughes (BKR) increases quarterly cash dividend of $0.21 per share from $0.20 per share.
- Chevron (CVX) beats by $0.26, misses on revs; increases quarterly dividend 8% to $1.63 per share.
- Church & Dwight (CHD) announces 4% dividend increase.
- The Cigna Group (CI) Board of Directors declared a 14% increase in the quarterly dividend to $1.40 per share.
- Exponent (EXPO) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.28 per share from $0.26 per share.
- Houlihan Lokey (HLI) declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.55 per share of Class A and Class B common stock.
- Meta Platforms (META) Initiates quarterly dividend of $0.50 per share.
- Microchip (MCHP) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.45 per share from $0.439 per share.
- Polaris Industries (PII) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.66 per share from $0.65 per share.
- Southside Banc (SBSI) increases quarterly cash dividend 2.9% to $0.36 per share from $0.35 per share.
- Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 +33, Dow Jones +58, NASDAQ +190, and Russell 2000 +3. (as of 8:02 a.m. EST). Asia and Europe are higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.25 from 14.60 this morning. Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas higher as well for a second day. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 3.882% from 3.994% yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $43,160 from $42,211 higher by 0.26% this morning.
Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
- Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Consumer Cyclical, Utilities, Basic Materials, Industrials, Real Estate, Technology, Healthcare of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
- One Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Healthcare of note.
- Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Real Estate of note.
- Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Financial of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Healthcare of note.
Stocks rose Thursday, bouncing back from a sharp selloff in the prior session sparked by a shift in interest-rate expectations. The S&P 500 rebounded 1.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained about 370 points, or 1%, fully recovering from Wednesday’s decline. That marked a new all-time high for the Dow, its eighth record close of 2024. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.3%. Eight out of 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose at least 1%. (WSJ – edited by QPI)
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Friday After the Close: None of note.
- Monday Before the Open:
Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: PIPR +1.42, REGN +1.13, IMO +0.89, GWW +0.28, XOM +0.28, CVX +0.26, CI +0.25, BMY +0.15, SAIA +0.13, TWST +0.03, CBOE +0.02, WT +0.01 of note.
- Flat: BEP +0.00, CHD +0.00 of note.
- Misses: CHTR (1.69), AON (0.18), LYB (0.07), ABBV (0.01) of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: DECK, TEAM, META, CLX, ENSG, COUR, CI, BMY of note.
- Negative Guidance: SNDR, CLFD, COLM, GEN, SKX, MCHP, DXC, DLB, ABBV of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
- Gap Up: META +17%, DECK +8%, CLX +7%, COUR +6%, AMZN +6%, CDXS +5%, CABA +4%, CI +4% of note.
- Gap Down: SKX -11%, COLM -8%, TEAM -8%, EXPO -7%, CLFD -4%, BZH -4% of note.
Insider Action: CODI sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. VERA sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
- 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg Lead Story: Jobs Report To Show Slower Hiring Pace. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg Third Most Shared Story: Employed but unhappy. (Bloomberg)
- US Futures get Amazon, Meta boost before Jobs Data: Market Wrap. (Bloomberg)
- Commercial Real Estate slow-motion crisis explained. (Bloomberg)
- Regional Bank sell-off is a cautionary sign of more pain to come. (Reuters)
- Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) beats estimates as new drugs post strong sales. (CNBC)
- Chevron (CVX) earnings fall but shareholders see record windfall in 2023, dividend increased 8%. (CNBC)
- Exxon (XOM) beats estimates, ends 2023 with a profit of $36 billion. (Reuters)
- Bloomberg: Odd Lots: How Global Shippers are dealing with the worsening Red Sea Crisis. (Podcast)
- NPR Marketplace: Tech CEOs grilled by Congress, Microsoft still leads in AI and Neuralnk has first brain implant. (Podcast)
- NY Times Daily: Biden’s pitch to black voters. (Podcast)
- Wealthion: Monetary meltdown with Lyn Alden and “The Mooch”. (Podcast)
Podcasts are presented to provide interesting viewpoints on current issues. We do not necessarily support each viewpoint. They are more meant to get you thinking!
Moving Average Update: Score slingshots back up to 80% from 57%.
Geopolitical:
- President’s Public Schedule:
- The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:30 a.m. EST
- The President and The First Lady depart New Castle, Delaware en route to Dover, Delaware, 11:00 a.m. EST
- The President and The First Lady arrive in Dover, Delaware, 11:30 a.m. EST
- The President and The First Lady meet with the families of fallen American service members; Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman CQ Brown attend, 12:10 p.m. EST
- The President and The First Lady participate in a dignified transfer at Dover Air Force Base; Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman CQ Brown attend, 1:30 p.m. EST
- The President and The First Lady depart Dover, Delaware en route to New Castle, Delaware, 2:25 p.m. EST
- The President and The First Lady arrive in New Castle, Delaware, 2:55 p.m. EST
Economic:
- January Nonfarm Payroll is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 175,000 from 214,000. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.8% from 3.7%.
- December Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to 0.3% from 2.6%.
- January University of Michigan Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to remain at 78.80%.
- Michigan Inflation Expectations 10:00 a.m. EST
- Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:
- Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is appearing this Sunday on 60 Minutes; set to discuss inflation risks, the economy and the timeline for cutting rates.
M&A Activity and News: None of note.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences: None of note.
- Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
- Top Shareholder Meetings: GBDC NFYS
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ALCC CHD
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings:
- 121 Mining Investment Conference (02/04/24-02/05/25)
- Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
- International Master Course on Aging Science World Congress
- Empowering Women to Champion Airway conference
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
