Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.06% at 4924.97 from Monday higher by 0.76% at 4927.93. The overnight high was hit at 4952 at 4:05 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4923 at 6:05 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 29 points as of 7:25 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 19.50 from 19.80. The average for May-December average was 20.87 from 21.43 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -22.75 points at 7:25 a.m. EST.
Executive Summary: Tech stocks are lower as Microsoft, Google and AMD failed to live up to expectations. A little perspective please as they are up 8.66%, 8.43% and 16,72% since year end. All eyes are on the Fed today that will come down from the mountain at 2:00 p.m. EST to proclaim its latest thinking and then talk about it at 2:30 p.m. Another case of buy the rumor and sell the news?
- January ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EST and expected to come in at 140,000 from 164,000.
- January Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EST and expected to come in at 48.40 from 46.90.
- The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its latest two-day meeting with the announcement at 2:00 p.m. EST and the press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: RNR +3.46, MPC +1.77, POWL +1.14, UMBF +0.53, CB +0.42, OSK +0.32, MTCH +0.31, ATGE +0.25, ASH +0.25, MANH +0.23, AX +0.20, EA +0.19, SYK +0.19, ENVA +0.17, MSFT +0.16, MOD +0.15, LC +0.08, TER +0.07, MDLZ +0.06, CP +0.06, FCF +0.05, GOOG +0.05, APAM +0.04, BXP +0.02, FIBK +0.02, SWKS +0.02, FBIN +0.02, RHI +0.01 of note.
- Flat: AMD +0.00, EQR +0.00 of note.
- Misses: UNM (0.07), SBUX (0.03), HA (0.02), JNPR (0.02), LFUS (0.01) of note.
- IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
- New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- Secondaries Priced:
- PCVX: Pricing of $750 Million Public Offering 10,937,500 shares @ $64. (BAC, Jefferies, Leerink Evercore, Guggenheim and Cantor)
- Notes Priced of note:
- CZR: Announces Pricing of Tender Offer for 5.750% Senior Secured Notes Due 2025.
- IMCR: Prices upsized offering of $350.0 million of 2.50% convertible senior notes due 2030.
- Common Stock filings/Notes:
- AMSC – Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock. (Oppenheimer Bookmanager)
- BBLG: Filed Form S-1.. Common Stock and Warrants.
- CRBP: Announces proposed public offering. (Jefferies Bookmanager)
- PCVX: Commencement of Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants. (BAC, Jefferies, Leerink Evercore, Guggenheim and Cantor)
- SCNI : FORM F-3 – 5,369,497 American Depositary Shares representing 2,147,798,800 Ordinary Shares.
- VMAR: Filed Form F-1.. Up to 25,714,284 Common Shares Comprised.
- Direct Offering:
- APDN: Announces $3.44 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-the-Market Under Nasdaq Rules.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- SLDB: Files for 19,685,581 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
- Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- AMSC: Files $250 million mixed shelf securities offering.
- Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
- Tender Offer:
- VST: Announces Cash Tender Offer for Remaining TRA Rights.
- Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
- VNET: Announces the Results of the Repurchase Right Offer for Its 0.00% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close :
- After Hours Movers:
- GHSI: +90% Entry into Definitive Agreement to Sell its Well-Known Viactiv
- SINT: +75% to develop 3d printing and cmcs with devcom-army research laboratory
- POWL: +16% Earnings
- EQR: +9.5% Earnings
- CRBP: +9.5% Insider Purchase and Offering
- SYK: +4% Earnings
- SBUX: +3.5% Earnings
- MARK: -36% Form 8K Filing Update
- AMSC: -12% Offering
- RHI: -10% Earnings
- TER: -8% Earnings
- AMD: -6% Earnings
- GOOGL: -6% Earnings
- ASH: +6% Earnings
- LC: -4% Earnings
- TSLA: -3% Delaware judge voids CEO Musk’s $56 billion pay package
- MSFT: -1% Earnings
- News Items After the Close:
- Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: MSFT, GOOGL, SBUX, AMD, TSLA, EA, MDLZ, SYK, SWKS, POWL, RHI, TER (CNBC)
- Microsoft (MSFT) Sales Top Estimates; Cloud Growth Disappoints Some. (Bloomberg)
- Humanoid Robot Startup Figure AI in Funding Talks With Microsoft (MSFT), OpenAI. (Bloomberg)
- Google’s (GOOGL) Ad Sales Fall Short of Wall Street’s Lofty Expectations. (WSJ)
- AMD shares fall as first-quarter forecast comes in light. (CNBC)
- Starbucks (SBUX) earnings disappoint as U.S. boycott, ‘cautious’ China weaken sales yet stock up 4%. (CNBC)
- Samsung Electronics’ operating profit falls 34.57% in the fourth quarter, in line with guidance. (CNBC)
- Judge voids Elon Musk’s $56 billion Tesla (TSLA) compensation, shares slide. (CNBC)
- MSFT: Redmond and Nadella delivered a masterpiece quarter/guidance and conf call that should be printed out and hung in the Louvre. Raising price target to $475. Most importantly, Copilot conversions appear to be exploding across the MSFT ecosystem as the AI Revolution has begun Dan Ives.
- Enbridge (ENB) to Trim 6% of Workforce Amid Economic Challenges.
- Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- CVRx (CVRX) Announces Appointment of Kevin Hykes as President and Chief Executive Officer.
- Jianpu Technology Inc. (JT) Announces Receipt of NYSE Non-compliance Letter Regarding ADS Trading Price.
- Post (POST) President and CEO Rob Vitale to return from medical leave.
- The RealReal (REAL) appointed Todd Suko to serve as Interim Chief Financial Officer.
- Upland Software (UPLD) promoted Karen Cummings to President and Chief Operating Officer of the Company.
- Buyback Announcements or News:
- DocGo (DCGO) has approved a new share repurchase program pursuant to which DocGo may purchase up to $36 mln of its common stock during a 6-month period.
- Equity Residential (EQR) Board of Trustees approved replenishing the share repurchase program authorization back to its original 13.0 million shares.
- Fortune Brands Innovations (FBIN) additional $650 million authorized for share buybacks.
- Match Group (MTCH) authorizes new $1.0 billion share repurchase program.
- Stock Splits or News:
- Walmart (WMT) announces 3-for-1 stock split. (MarketWatch)
- Reverse Split stock today GOVX 1/15.
- Dividends Announcements or News:
- Atkore International (ATKR) initiates a quarterly cash dividend of $0.32 per share.
- Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM) Quarterly and Special Annual Dividend.
- Franco-Nevada (FNV) increases quarterly cash dividend 5.88% to $0.36 per share from $0.34 per share.
- New York Community (NYCB) reducing dividend.
- Powell Inds (POWL) Board of Directors has approved an increase to the quarterly cash dividend on the Company’s common stock to $0.2650 per share, equating to an annualized dividend of $1.06 per share from the current amount of $1.05 per share.
- Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 -20, Dow Jones +53, NASDAQ -149, and Russell 2000 +7. (as of 8:01 a.m. EST). Asia is higher ex South Korea while Europe is higher ex Germany this morning. VIX Futures are at 14 from 14.15 this morning. Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.032% from 4.064% yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $42,617 from $43,470 higher by 0.85% this morning..
Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
- Daily Positive Sectors: Financial, Energy, Consumer Defensive of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate, Communication Services, Technology, Consumer Cyclical of note.
- One Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Healthcare of note.
- Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, and Real Estate of note.
- Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Financial of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Healthcare of note.
Technology shares slipped as investors awaited earnings from industry heavyweights that have pushed the S&P 500 to fresh records. The benchmark index edged down 0.1% Tuesday, while the Dow added 0.3%, or 134 points, for a new record. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell 0.8%, its worst day in almost four weeks. Investors parsed a fresh spate of earnings for signs of how consumers are holding up and companies’ expectations for future quarters. Slightly more than 100 firms report earnings this week. By the end of Friday, nearly half of the S&P 500 will have posted results. (WSJ – edited by QPI)
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Wednesday After the Close:
- Thursday Before the Open:
Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: PSX +0.74, COR +0.38, EVR +0.35, BA +0.31, HES +0.27, TEVA +0.23, LII +0.17, MKTX +0.11, MA +0.10, ODFL +0.09, APTV +0.07, CMCO +0.06, SLGN +0.05, BSX +0.04, FTV +0.04, EAT +0.04, GIB +0.04, ROP +0.03, TMO +0.03, ADP +0.03, NDAQ +0.02, OTIS +0.01, AVT +0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: GPI (0.94), NYCB (0.62), ROK (0.60), NAVI (0.54), GSK (0.45), NVS (0.13), HESM (0.08), EXTR (0.01), AVY (0.01) of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: SYK, MANH, FBIN, UNM, BXP, ASH, ATGE, BSX, COR, TEVA of note.
- Negative Guidance: PLOW, EA, MTCH, AMD, MOD, LFUS, RHI, TER, SLGN, RKLB, EXTR, AVT of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
- Gap Up: POWL +16%, MANH +11%, ASH +6%, SYK +4%, EQR +4%, ALLO +4%, NMR +4% of note.
- Gap Down: AMSC -15%, RHI -9%, MOD -8%, TER -7%, AMD -6%, GOOG -5%, FCF -5%, MDLZ -4%, ATKR -4% of note.
Insider Action: TCBI, TLYS, WVE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
- 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg Lead Story: Trump to Lose 53% of Swing State Voters if Convicted of a Crime. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Byron Allen makes $14 billion offer for Paramount Global. (Bloomberg)
- Iran has vowed to retaliate against any U.S. attack. (Bloomberg)
- Fed expected to hold rates steady by start considering cuts. (Bloomberg)
- Weekly Mortgage Demand drops as buyers fail to find affordable homes. (CNBC)
- House to vote restore child tax credit and give business renewed expense tax deductions. (PunchBowl News)
- Boeing (BA) sees quarterly loss narrow but removes 2024 guidance due to Max 9 issues. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg: Odd Lots: China’s moves to create a Dollar alternative. (Podcast)
- NPR Marketplace: Many battles in the lithium and critical minerals revolution. (Podcast)
- NY Times Daily: Is the future of medicine hidden in ancient DNA. (Podcast)
- Wealthion: “A Recession is baked in the cake” – Economist Steve Hanke (Podcast)
Podcasts are presented to provide interesting viewpoints on current issues. We do not necessarily support each viewpoint. They are more meant to get you thinking!
Moving Average Update: Score comes down to 94% from 100%.
Geopolitical:
- President’s Public Schedule:
- The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EST
- Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:00 p.m. EST
- The President and The Vice President have lunch, 1:15 p.m. EST
Economic:
- MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
- MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: -7.2%, Purchase: -11.4%, ReFi: +1.6%
- U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (WOW) Actual: -7.2% VS 3.7% Previous
- U.S MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate Actual: 6.78% VS 6.78% Previous
- Employment Cost Index 8:30 a.m. EST
- Treasury Refunding 8:30 a.m. EST
- January ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EST and expected to come in at 140,000 from 164,000.
- January Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EST and expected to come in at 48.40 from 46.90.
- EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST
- The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its latest two day meeting with the announcement at 2:00 p.m. EST and the press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
- Farm Prices 3:00 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:
- The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes its latest two day meeting with the announcement at 2:00 p.m. EST and the press conference at 2:30 p.m. EST with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
M&A Activity and News:
- Core & Main (CNM) signs agreement to acquire Dana Kepner.
- PARA: Media mogul Byron Allen offers $14.3 billion to acquire all shares of Paramount Global, proposing $28.58 per voting share and $21.53 for non-voting shares. This represents a 50% premium from Jan 30. close. The total deal, incl. debt, is valued at approx. $30 billion.
- Travel + Leisure Co (TNL) acquires Accor for $48.4 million.
- YETI Acquires Myestery Ranch.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Janney Annual CEO Forum
- Lytham Partners Investor Select Conference
- DealFlow Microcap Conference
- Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
- Top Shareholder Meetings: ACN CNSL GIB LPTH OPTT SAGE
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AVD LDTC ILMN TNXP
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings:
- SEMI Technology Symposium
- Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
- Microbiome Movement Drug Development Summit
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
