CAPIS Morning Note – 01/29/24: Quiet Start To A Busy Week.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.07% at 4890.97 from Thursday by 0.50% at 4895.05. The overnight high was hit at 4921.25 at 7:20 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4901.75 at 6:05 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 20 points as of 7:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day average…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday lower by -0.07% at 4890.97 from Thursday by 0.50% at 4895.05. The overnight high was hit at 4921.25 at 7:20 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4901.75 at 6:05 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 20 points as of 7:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 21.50 from 22.40.  The average for May-December average was 20.87 from 21.43 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by 4 points at 7:20 a.m. EST.
Executive Summary: A quiet start to the week but then things get moving Wednesday through Friday. Wednesday sees the FOMC announcement and presser. There is also lots of economic data on the last three days of the week. Notable earnings as well on those days. Fasten your seatbelt.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • AMIX: Closing of $11.2 Million in Gross Proceeds from Initial Public Offering.
    • American Healthcare REIT (AHR) announces launch of IPO, company to offer 56.0 mln share within an expected price range of $12-$15; shares to be listed on the NYSE.
    • The Fortegra Group (TFG) announces launch of IPO, company to offer 18.0 mln shares within expected range of $15-$18; shares to be listed on the NYSE.
    • Reddit reportedly looking at $5 billion IPO valuation.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • PBLA: Announces Pricing of Approximately $9.0 Million Public Offering.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CRBP: Agreed to sell approximately $16.8 million of its common stock under the Open Market Sale Agreement.
    • FRSX: FORM F-3 – $50,000,000 American Depositary Shares Representing Ordinary Shares.
    • GRRR : FORM F-3 – Up to 200,000 Ordinary Shares.
    • KUKE: Filed Form 424B5 5,000,000 American Depositary Shares Representing 5,000,000 Class A Ordinary Shares.
    • PALI: Filed Form RW.
    • SABS: Filed Form 424B5 .. Up to $20,000,000 Common Stock.
    • SNX: Announces Launch of Secondary Public Offering of Common Stock and Concurrent Share Repurchase.
    • VERA: To commence $200 million public offering of shares of its Class A common stock.
  • Direct Offering:
    • CKPT: Announces $14 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-the-Market.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • ORIC: Files for 12.5 million share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • CDIO: Filed Form S-3.. Up to $17,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • CUK : FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • CCL: Files mixed shelf securities offering.
    • ONVO: Filed Form S-3.. $150Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • KD: Filed Form S-3ASR Debt Securities
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Weekend:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: CRBP 311.9%, TWOU 51.7%, LXRX 40.8%, SBNY 37.7%, INSG 27.2%, APPF 26.4%, AMRN 25.7%, MOR 24.3%, GGAL 23.7%, TREE 22.3%, KURA 22.2%, EGRX 21.2%, GTHX 19.9%, NS 19.6%, GLT 19.3%.
    • Trading Down: INO -23.7%, ADM -23.4%, NG -20.3%, COLB -18.2%, HZO -17.4%, POL -16.5%, BLUE -16.2%, BB -15.2%, OMER -14.4%, TSLA -13.7%, GTLS -12.0%, CORT -11.1%, MMM -10.8%, HUM -10.4%, CNMD -10.0%, SATS -9.9%, EDIT -9.8%, LOGI -9.8%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Advanced Micro (AMD) ticks higher as Elon Musk tweets response to chip question in which he says that Tesla will use AMD chips.
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) To Cut 1% Jobs over The Year. (Spokesperson)
    • Huntington Ingalls (HII) awarded a $913 million US Navy contract for USS Harry S. Truman Refueling and Complex Overhaul.
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • The Score: Stocks That Defined the Week – UAL, NFLX, IBM, TSLA, AXP (WSJ)
    • Three U.S. Troops Killed in Drone Attack in Jordan. (WSJ)
    • Traders Line Up for ‘Once-in-a-Generation’ Emerging Markets Bet. (Bloomberg)
    • GOLDMAN: “.. We continue to expect the #FOMC to deliver a first cut in March and 5 cuts in total in 2024. The main reason is that progress on inflation has already surpassed the threshold the FOMC has given. .. the labor market .. could still provide additional reasons for the FOMC to cut sooner rather than later.” (CQ CNBC)
    • FXI: China pumps the brakes on short-selling to bolster market.
    • DFS Credit card delinquencies and charge-offs continue to climb in December.
    • Apple (AAPL) Home Devices, Car Veteran Exits for Top Rivian (RIVN) Product Role.
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: MSFT, CHE, TOST, JBHT, TOST, NVDA, ARM, PBR, CLX, PFE, EL, MSGS, PARA, BFAM, HUBS, BIRK, EL, TTE of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Dare Bioscience (DARE) Announces Executive Team and Board of Directors Changes
    • NuZee, Inc. (NUZE) Announces Receipt of NASDAQ Notification.
    • Shake Shack (SHAK) CEO enters into a Transition and Advisory Agreement.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Dingdong (DDL) Announces US$20.0 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Northrim BanCorp, Inc. (NRIM) Expands Stock Repurchase Program.
    • SNX – See Common Stock Filings above.
    • STMicroelectronics (STM) Announces Status of Common Share Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Reverse split stocks for today MMAT 1/100 INBS 1/12.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Black Hills Corp (BKH) increases its quarterly dividend by 4% to $0.65 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note:  None of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -1, Dow Jones -24, NASDAQ +18, and Russell 2000 -1.  (as of 7:59 a.m. EST).  Asia is higher while Europe is lower ex FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.13 from 14.20  this morning.  Gold, Silver and Copper are higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.108% from 4.124% Friday morning. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $42,233 from $41,366 higher by 0.87% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical, Financial of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Technology, Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Healthcare of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financial, and Real Estate of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Communication Services, Technology, and Healthcare of note.

The S&P 500 snapped a five-day streak of fresh records, dragged lower by technology shares. The benchmark index fell 0.1%, while the Dow industrials edged up 0.2%, or 60 points, to hit a new high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined 0.4%. All three indexes finished the week higher. A rally in big tech stocks has helped propel the S&P 500 to new highs. A belief that the Federal Reserve has successfully slowed inflation without inducing a sharp economic slowdown has helped fuel the trade. The central bank’s preferred inflation gauge showed Friday that price pressures remained mostly subdued in December. The personal-consumption expenditures index rose 0.2% from the previous month.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Monday After the Close:

  • Tuesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: PPBI +0.03, SOFI +0.02, PHG of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: BEN of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: MOG.A of note.
  • Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:  

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: MGRC +9%, ALVO +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: VERA -8%, PHG -7%, TSE -4% of note.

Insider Action: TCBI, PBF sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: DLTR, AAL, FLYW, HSY, BE, ALB, BEAM, WBD, BLDR, PHG, ZI, MGRC (CNBC)
  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Evergrande Set For Liquidation in Milestone For China Property Crisis. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story:  Traders line up for once in a generation Emerging Markets Bet. (Bloomberg)
  • Iran distances itself from US Base Attack as Biden vows a response. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks make cautious start to event packed week: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Fan Duel parent Flutter lists on NYSE challenging Draft Kings. (CNBC)
  • United Airlines (UAL) CEO kickstarts Airbus amid Boeing (BA) delays. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg: Odd Lots: Why the Short Volatility Trade is back and bigger than ever. (Podcast)
  • NPR Marketplace:  Why Carbon Capture is not a magic bullet solution to climate crisis. (Podcast)
  • NY Times Daily:  The failed promise of police body cameras. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Financial Firestorm: Tech Stocks, Gold and Global Economy. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Score at 97%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 11:00 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby, 1:30 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • Dallas Fed Mfg Survey 10:30 a.m. EST
  • 3,6-Month Bill Auction  11:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity and News: 

  • McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) to be acquired by WillScot Mobile Mini (WSC) for $3.8 billion. (Bloomberg)

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • H.C. Wainwright Virtual Fireside Chat
    • Piper Sandler Biopharma Mogul Summit
    • UBS Latin America Investment Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: KERN
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: KAI
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: