CAPIS Morning Note – 01/26/24: Inflation Data Due This Morning, Futures Lower.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday by 0.50% at 4895.05 from Wednesday higher by 0.08% at 4868.55. The overnight high was hit at 4925 at 4:45 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4898.50 at 2:55 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 27 points as of 7:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day average…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Thursday by 0.50% at 4895.05 from Wednesday higher by 0.08% at 4868.55. The overnight high was hit at 4925 at 4:45 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4898.50 at 2:55 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 27 points as of 7:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 22.40 from 21.70.  The average for May-December average was 20.87 from 21.43 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -4 points at 7:30 a.m. EST.
Executive SummaryIn October, the S&P 500 almost hit 4100 and is close to hitting 4900 this morning. That is an 800 point move or 19.50%. Quite a move. More ahead?
  • December Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 0.30% from 0.40%.
  • December PCE Core is also due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.2% from 0.1%
  • December Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 2.3% from 0.0%.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: ASB +0.61, APPF +0.55, WDC +0.43, KLAC +0.25, OLN +0.23, WAL +0.23, COF +0.16, FHI +0.12, GBCI +0.11, CUBI +0.10, WSFS +0.10, INTC +0.09, V +0.07, SSB +0.05, LHX +0.04, HTH +0.04, WY +0.02, LEVI +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: AJG +0.00, FFBC +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: FICO (0.25), TMUS (0.24), PFS (0.04), ABCB (0.03), MRTN (0.03), FFIN (0.02) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • ArriVent BioPharma (AVBP) prices upsized 9.7 million share IPO at $18, the midpoint of the $17-$19 expected price range; the biopharmaceutical company initially expected to offer 8.3 million shares.
    • BrightSpring Health Services (BTSG) prices 53.3 million IPO at $13 per share, below the $15-$18 expected range.
    • Haoxi Health Technology Limited (HAO) Announces Pricing of Its Initial Public Offering.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • SGMT: prices offering of 9.0 million shares of common stock at $12.50 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • ATLC: Prices $50 Million Offering of Senior Notes
    • NGL: Announces Pricing of $2.2 Billion Offering of Senior Secured Notes.
    • NMFC: Prices Public Offering of $300 Million 6.875% Notes Due 2029.
    • TALO: Pricing of Upsized Offering of $625 Million of Second-Priority Senior Secured Notes Due 2029 and $625 Million of Second-Priority Senior Secured Notes Due 2031.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ACET: Closing of $98 Million Public Follow-On Offering and Exercise in Full of the Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
    • VTNR: Form S-3.. 1,000,000 Shares Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: See RYI in Mixed Shelf.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • SCND: Announces Closing of $7.0 Million Private Placement.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • APRE: Filed Form S-3.. $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • RYI: Files mixed shelf securities offering; also files for 3,924,478 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
    • XELB: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • ROI: +19% SC 13G Filed by Arena Investors 9.2%
    • TELL: +14% Exploring possible sale
    • APPF: +6% Earnings
    • OLN: +3.5% Earnings
    • PTCT: -11% CHMP Issues Negative Opinion for Renewal of Conditional Marketing Authorization for Translarna
    • INTC: -9% Earnings
    • KLAC: -6% Earnings
    • WDC: -4.5% Earnings
    • TMUS: -3.5% Earnings
    • V: -3% Earnings
    • LHX: -3% Earnings
    • COF: -2% Earnings
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: INTC, TMUS, LEVI, WDC, KLAC  (CNBC)
    • Intel’s (INTC) earnings forecast comes up well short, and the stock is tanking. (MarketWatch)
    • INTC is behind when it comes to GPU’s, behind Nvidia, AMD and the Hyperscalers. In five years, I believe they’ll still be behind. (Gene Munster)
    • US Treasury Secretary Yellen: It Is Unclear If Recent Productivity Gains Are Temporary, Too Soon To Speculate On Impact Of Artificial Intelligence On Productivity.
    • MSFT: OpenAI’s Altman to meet chipmakers Samsung, SK Hynix execs on Friday (Reuters)
    • Microsoft (MSFT) lays off 1,900 workers, nearly 9% of gaming division, after Activision Blizzard acquisition. (CNBC)
    • Levi Strauss (LEVI) plans to cut at least 10% of its global corporate workforce in restructuring. (CNBC)
    • JPMorgan (JPM) Shuffles Top Managers as Jamie Dimon Prepares Successors. (Bloomberg)
    • BMO: “Inflation is cooling and the economy is almost laughing off 500 bps of Fed tightening. .. no wonder equity markets are going about their bullish business.” (CARL Q CNBC)
    • UNG: US to announce climate review of LNG export approvals Friday, sources say. (Reuters)
    • FXI: BAC Buying Chinese shares is now “the world’s most enticing contrarian long ‘trade,’” according to Bank of America strategists.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Adamas (JEWL) One Receives Nasdaq Notification of Non-Compliance with Listing Rule 5250(c)(1).
    • Credit Acceptance Corp. (CACC) promotes Jay Martin to CFO.
    • Enel Chile (ENIC) Chief Executive Officer of the Company Mr. Fabrizio Barderi tendered his resignation.
    • Grocery Outlet (GO) appoints Ramesh Chikkala to the newly created position of EVP, COO.
    • Hut 8 Mining (HUT): Chief Commercial Officer Matt Prusak leaving Hut 8 as part of planned transition to Celsius Bitcoin mining company.
    • MYR Group (MYRG) announces that Tod Cooper will retire from his position as CFO and transition the role to Brian Stern.
    • RCF Acquisition Corp. (RCFA) Announces Receipt of Continued Listing Standard  Non-compliance Notice from NYSE.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Biote (BTMD) Announces $20 Million Share Repurchase Authorization.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Reverse stock splits for today TC 1/15.
    • ZOM: Leading Proxy Advisory Firm ISS Recommends Zomedica Shareholders Vote “FOR” Proposed Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Allete (ALE) increased the quarterly dividend on the company’s common stock to $0.705 per share, a 4.1% increase.
    • Archer-Daniels (ADM) raises quarterly dividend by 11% to $0.50 per share.
    • Archrock (AROC) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.165 per share from $0.155 per share.
    • Acuity Brands (AYI) increases quarterly cash dividend 15% to $0.15 per share from $0.13 per share and authorizes the additional repurchase of up to 3 million shares of common stock.
    • California Water (CWT) increases quarterly cash dividend 7.7% to $0.28 per share from $0.26 per share.
    • Energy Transfer (ET) increases its quarterly cash distribution to $0.3150 per Energy Transfer common unit, an increase of 3.3%.
    • First Financial (FFBC) board of directors approved a quarterly dividend of $0.23 per common share for the next regularly scheduled dividend.
    • Hilltop Holdings (HTH) raises quarterly dividend by 6%.
    • Weyerhaeuser (WY) announces supplemental dividend of $0.14 per share, resulting in $0.90 per share of total dividends based on 2023 results.
    • Wintrust Fin (WTFC) increases quarterly cash dividend 12.5% to $0.45 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note:  None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -3, Dow Jones -9, NASDAQ -67 , and Russell 2000 +11.  (as of 7:56 a.m. EST).  Asia is higher ex Japan while Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.20 from 14.03 this morning.  Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.124% from 4.159%  yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $41,366 from $40,214 higher by 4.02% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Utilities, Communication Services, Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, Industrials, Basic Materials, Financial of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • One Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Healthcare of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Financial, and Real Estate of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, and Healthcare of note.

The S&P 500 hit yet another high Thursday after new data showed the U.S. economy remained surprisingly resilient throughout 2023.  The benchmark index rose 0.5% to notch its fifth consecutive record on Thursday while the Dow industrials added 0.6%, or 243 points, also to a record high. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Friday After the Close: None of note.
  • Monday Before the Open: PHG, BEN, SOFI, CR, PPBI

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: ALV +0.37, BAH +0.27, GNTX +0.06, UBSI +0.06, CL +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: BKU (0.42), SBSI (0.10), STEL (0.04), AXP (0.02) of note.
  • Still to Report: BMI, FHB, NSC of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: WDC, CHT, BAH, AXP of note.
  • Negative Guidance: INTC, LHX, LEVI of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline ChartWill return Monday

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: PRCH +13%, APPF +11%, VNDA +6%, GBCI +4%, TVTX +4%, OLN +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: SGMT -11%, INTC -11%, PTCT -9%, CVRX -7%, KLAC -6%, WDC -5%, FICO -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.


Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: INTC, TMUS, AXP, COF (CNBC)
  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  JP Morgan Shuffles Top Managers As Jamie Dimon Prepares Successors. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: Biden freezes approvals to export gas, imperiling major projects. (Bloomberg)
  • US Futures slide as Intel results hit chip stocks: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • CNBC’s Jim Cramer says Tesla (TSLA) is out of the Magnificant Seven after earnings miss. (CNBC)
  • LVMH Share jump 12% as luxury sector resilient. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: The rivalry behind the weight loss drug boom. (Podcast)
  • NPR Marketplace: Layoffs continue, Silicon Valley renews romance with Middle East and why Netflix is retiring its no-ads basic tier. (Podcast)
  • NY Times Daily: A story of Dementia. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Will return Monday


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby, 1:00 p.m. EST


  • December Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 0.30% from 0.40%.
  • December PCE Core is also due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 0.2% from 0.1%
  • December Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 2.3% from 0.0%.
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count 1:00 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity and News

  • Kadant (KAI) acquires KWS Manufacturing Company, Ltd. for approximately $84 million in cash.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences: None of note.
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: EGIO, XELA
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: None of note.
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Crohn’s & Colitis Congress
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Advances Against Aspergillosis and Mucormycosis (AAAM) Conference
        • American Society of Clinical Oncology Genitourinary Cancers Symposium
        • Maui Dermatology

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: