CAPIS Morning Note – 01/24/24: Trump Wins New Hampshire. Futures Move Higher. 5 Year Auction Today With Tesla Earnings After Close.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.29% at 4864.60 from Monday higher by 0.22% at 4850.43. The overnight high was hit at 4918 at 6:15 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4902.50 at 9:20 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 16 points as of 7:15 a.m. EST. The 10-day…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.29% at 4864.60 from Monday higher by 0.22% at 4850.43. The overnight high was hit at 4918 at 6:15 a.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4902.50 at 9:20 p.m. EST. The range overnight was 16 points as of 7:15 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 22 from  22.80.  The average for May-December average was 20.87 from 21.43 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is higher by +20.75 points at 7:20 a.m. EST.
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Executive Summary: So far there have been 8 higher days with 7 days lower. The S&P 500 is up 1.99% while the Russell 2000 is down -2.51%. Futures are higher but there still is lots of back and forth. Tesla’s (TSLA) earnings will be up after the close and it has sold off into earnings with a drop of -20% since the 12/27 peak.
  • January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI is due out at 9:45 and came in last month at 47.90.
  • January S&P Global US Services PMI is due out at 9:45 and came in last month 51.41.
  • 5-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EST
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is due out after the close for the period of December 27th through January 11th. During this period, the S&P 500 fell by -0.03%.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: EWBC +0.28, LRN +0.23, RNST +0.13, ISRG +0.12, TXN +0.11, NBHC +0.05, CNI +0.04, TRMK +0.04, BKR +0.03 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: SAP (0.31), NFLX (0.11), STLD (0.02), VBTX (0.01), WSBC (0.01) of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News:
    • SU Group (SUGP) 1.25 Million share IPO priced at $4.00.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Vision Sensing Acquisition Corp. (VSAC) Received Nasdaq Delisting Determination Letter and Intends to Appeal the Determination and Request a Stay Pending the Appeal Hearing.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • SGMT: Prices offering of 9 million shares of its Series A common stock.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • MITT: Pricing of Public Offering of Senior Notes.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ESPR: Closing of Public Offering of Common Stock and Exercise in Full of Underwriters’ Option to Purchase Additional Shares.
    • OGEN: Termination of At-The-Market Offering Program.
    • PNST: Files for 23,985,000 shares of Class A common stock; relates to warrants.
    • ROI: Filed Form S-1.. 40,000,000 Shares of Common Stock.
    • SGMT: Filed Form S-1.. 9,000,000 shares of our Series A common stock.
    • XPON: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 1,781,978 shares of Common Stock.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • KURA: Announces oversubscribed $150 million private placement.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • SILO: Filed Form S-3.. $25 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
    • NGL: $2.1 Billion Offering of Senior Secured Notes.
    • SGHT: Closing of up to $65 Million Senior Secured Credit Facility with Hercules Capital.
    • VST: Form S-3 Filed.. 476,081.109 Shares of 8.875% Series C Fixed-Rate Reset Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Stock.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • BB: Announces proposed private offering of $160 million of convertible senior notes.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close :

  • After Hours Movers: 
    • VSME: +50% Form SC 13G Filed by Warner Bros. Discovery, Inc. 8.2%
    • EVAX: +42% Form SC 13G Filed by Merck & Co., Inc. 11.4%
    • NFLX: +8% Earnings
    • ISRG: +6% Earnings
    • LRN: +4.7% Earnings
    • BB: -13% Proposed Private Offering of $160 Million of Convertible Senior Notes
    • TXN: -4.5% Earnings
    • MMAT: -4% 1-for-100 Reverse Stock
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: NFLX, TXN, ISRG, EWBC (CNBC)
    • Netflix (NFLX) Posts Best Customer Gain Since Surge During Pandemic. (Bloomberg)
    • Texas Instruments (TXN) kicks off chip earnings season with some words of caution. (MarketWatch)
    • Boeing (BA) CEO Dave Calhoun to appear before senators this week following 737 MAX 9 grounding. (Reuters)
    • Logitech (LOGI) CEO says sales growth will be ‘gradual’ due to external headwinds. (CNBC)
    • EBAY to eliminate about 1,000 jobs, or 9% of full-time workforce. (CNBC)
    • SAP SE (SAP) executing restructuring as it increases focus on growth areas, such as Business AI, affecting approximately 8,000 positions.
    • CACI Intl (CACI) wins five-year $382 million U.S. Army contract.
    • JPM Desk on TSLA: “.. Expectations are low (similar to recent Qs) but stock has actually sold off into the event which makes a unique set up. The two most important pieces .. 1) Q4 auto GMs ex credits .. 2) FY24 deliveries guide, as buyside is below cons at 2.2M (buyside between 2.0-2.1M)” (CQ CNBC)
      • TSLA Tesla plans to build new electric vehicles in mid-2025 Tesla opens new tab has told suppliers it wants to start production of a new mass market electric vehicle codenamed “Redwood” in mid-2025, according to four people familiar with the matter, with two of them describing the model as a compact crossover. (Reuters)
    • Morgan Stanley on AAPL: anticipates solid earnings beat for Apple, projecting $2.13 EPS on $119B revenue, driven by iPhone and Services. Despite likely subdued March Q guidance, analysts see this as a clearing event for Apple, shifting focus to the FY25 Edge AI opportunity. Apple’s start to the year was rocky due to China iPhone sales concerns, but the outlook remains promising.
      • Apple (AAPL) Plans New Fees and Restrictions for Downloads Outside App Store Apple is planning to add new fees and restrictions when it begins allowing third-party software downloads outside its App Store in response to a new European law intended to tear down its closed iPhone app ecosystem. (WSJ)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Cardiol Therapeutics (CRDL) Regains Compliance with all Applicable Listing Standards of The Nasdaq Capital Market.
    • Gildan (GIL) Provides Timeline of Events Leading Up to CEO’s Removal.
    • Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) appoints Neil MacDonald as leader of HPC & AI segment, a critical component of the company’s ongoing strategy.
    • Middlesex Water (MSEX) names Nadine Leslie as its new President & CEO effective March 1.
    • SAB Biotherapeutics (SABS) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Bid Price Requirement.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Baozun (BZUN) announces $20 million share repurchase program.
    • First Horizon (FHN) Announces $650 Million Share Repurchase Program. (See Dividends)
    • Fortive (FTV) replenishes share repurchase authorization with 11 million common shares, bringing the total to 20 million common shares.
    • Liberty Energy (LBRT) increases share repurchase authorization to by $250 million to $750 million.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • Reverse split stock today: INSG 1/10.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Cadre Holdings (CDRE) increases quarterly cash dividend 9% to $0.0875 per share from $0.08 per share.
    • Canadian Nat’l Rail (CNI) increases quarterly cash dividend 7% to C$0.845 per share.
    • Dorian LPG (LPG) announced that its Board of Directors has declared an irregular cash dividend of $1.00 per share of the Company’s common stock.
    • Elevance Health (ELV) Quarterly dividend increased by 10.1% to $1.63 per share
    • First Horizon (FHN) Declares Cash Dividends on Common and Preferred Stock.
    • Kimberly-Clark (KMB) Declares Dividend Increase.
    • ONE Gas (OGS) increased its quarterly dividend by 1.5% to $0.66 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note:  None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +22 , Dow Jones +108 , NASDAQ +140 , and Russell 2000 +18.  (as of 8:00 a.m. EST).  Asia is lower ex  Australia while Europe is higher this morning. VIX Futures are at 13.50 from 13.92 this morning.  Gold, Silver and Copper are higher this morning for the second day in a row. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas higher. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.107% from 4.13% yesterday morning. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the YenBitcoin is at $40,249 from $38,824 higher by 2.59% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Consumer Defensive, basic Materials, Technology of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Real Estate of note.
  • One Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Healthcare of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Financial, and Real Estate of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Technology, and Financial of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Technology, Communication Services, and Healthcare of note.

The S&P 500 set a third consecutive record Tuesday as earnings season picked up steam.  Investors were quick to reward some companies and punish others, sending shares of United Airlines Holdings (UAL) up 5.3% and 3M’s (MMM) stock down 11%.  Overall, shares of big U.S. companies edged higher, with the S&P 500 adding 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.3%, or about 96 points, pulling back after closing above 38000 for the first time Monday. The blue-chip index was stung by the decline in 3M as well as pullbacks in shares of Goldman Sachs Group (GS) and Home Depot (HD).  All three indexes have climbed into positive territory for 2024 after an uneven start to the year. The S&P 500 is up 2% in January, while the Nasdaq has risen 2.8%. The Dow Industrials are up 0.6%.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)


Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close:

  • Thursday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: TDY +0.40, SF +0.19, FBP +0.14, TEL +0.13, TXT +0.07, OFG +0.05, ASML +0.05, APH +0.05, PB +0.04, EDU +0.03, ELV +0.03, UCBI +0.01 of note.
  • Flat: MNRO, ABT of note.
  • Misses: GD (0.04), KMB (0.03), T (0.03) of note.
  • Still to Report: BOKF, FCX, SFNC of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: GATX, NFLX, LRN, IPAR, ELV, TXT, EDU, USAP of note.
  • Negative Guidance: PLUG, TXN, CNI, AXS, ASML, T, DD, TDY of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:  

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: NFLX +10%, ISRG +7%, HRTX +6%, TEL +6%, SAP +5%, ASML +5%, LRN +4%, BZUN +4%, EBAY +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: BB -10%, SGMT -7% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Trump Races Towards A Biden Rematch in 2024. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared Story: Apple dials back car’s self-driving features to 2028. (Bloomberg)
  • China boosts stimulus, cuts reserve requirements. (Bloomberg)
  • Wall Street set for gains as tech earnings impress: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
  • Former President Donald Trump won the New Hampshire Primary, his second such victory. (CNN)
  • Homebuyer demand pushes mortgage applications higher, even as rates climb higher. (CNBC)
  • eBay (EBAY) to eliminate 9% of workforce. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg The Big Take:  How Houthi Attacks are hurting the global supply chain. (Podcast)
  • NPR Marketplace:  What is “extreme privacy”. (Podcast)
  • NY Times Daily: Why the GOP Fight For President is all but over. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion:  Gold to hit $3,000? Interview with James Connor of Bloor Street Capital. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update: Score inches down to 97% from 100%.


  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby, 11:45 a.m. EST
    • The President departs the White House en route to the Marriott Marquis, Washington, DC, 12:50 p.m. EST
    • The President delivers remarks at a political event at the Marriott Marquis, Washington, DC, 1:30 p.m. EST
    • The President departs en route to the White House, 2:15 p.m. EST
    • The President arrives at the White House, 2:20 p.m. EST
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 3:30 p.m. EST


  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
    • MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: +3.7%, Purchase: +7.5%, ReFi: -7%
    • U.S MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate Actual: 6.78% VS 6.75% Previous
    • U.S MBA Mortage Applications (WOW) Actual: 3.7% VS 10.4% Previous
  • January S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EST and came in last month at 47.90.
  • January S&P Global US Services PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EST and came in last month 51.41.
  • EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST
  • 5-Yr Note Auction 1:00 p.m. EST
  • The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is due out after the close for the period of December 27th through January 11th. During this period, the S&P 500 fell by -0.03%.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: None of note.

M&A Activity and NewsNone of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Maxim Group Healthcare IT Virtual Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Capital Link’s Corporate Presentation Series
        • Sequire Investor Summit
        • TD Securities Global Mining Conference
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: CENN, JEC, MSM, WWD, XFLT
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: EFTR, JACK, KMI, LQDA, ONTF, USAP 
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • International Surface Event (TISE2024)
    • mRNA-Based Therapeutics Summit
    • Octane Aesthetic Technology Forum
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • LCA Recycling Circular Design & Sustainable Sourcing for EV Batteries & Carbon Neutral Vehicles USA Congress
        • Maui Dermatology
        • Symposium OGM Presentations

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: