CAPIS Morning Note – 01/24/23: Stocks Modestly Lower After A 3% Move Friday and Monday.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 1.19% at 4019.81 from Friday higher by 1.89% at 3972.61.  The overnight high of 4041.50 was hit at 12:40 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 4023 at 7:11 a.m. EST, a range of ~18 points high to low.  At 7:20 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday higher by 1.19% at 4019.81 from Friday higher by 1.89% at 3972.61.  The overnight high of 4041.50 was hit at 12:40 a.m. EST. The low was hit at 4023 at 7:11 a.m. EST, a range of ~18 points high to low.  At 7:20 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was lower by -11.75.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: CR +0.23, ZION +0.18, BRO +0.04, FNB +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: IBTX (0.27), LOGI (0.17), UMPQ (0.08), HOPE (0.02).

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • East Resources Acquisition Company (ERES) Announces Stockholder Approval of Second Extension Amendment Proposal.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • CBAY: 10M shares priced at $7 per share.
    • PFLT: prices offering of 4.25 mln shares of common stock at $11.20 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • CZR: Announces Pricing of Offering of Senior Secured Notes.
    • PRAA: Announces Pricing of Upsized Offering of $400.0 Million of 8.375% Senior Notes due 2028.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • CBAY: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants. (Piper, RJ and Cantor bookmanagers)
    • ISUN: Filed Form S-3 — 500k Shares of common stock.
    • NYC: American Strategic Investment Co. Announces Commencement of Rights Offering for Common Stock.
    • PFLT: Announces Public Offering of 4,250,000 shares of its common stock.
    • PLRX: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock — $175.0 million of its common stock. (JPM and Piper bookmanager)
    • VERB: Announces Proposed Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock Without Warrants.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
  • Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: HPK +9%, CBAY +6%, FNB +5%, CDLX +4%, CTV +4% of note.
    • Trading Down: PFLT -6%, ZION -4%, BRO -4%, CR -4% of note.
  • News After The Close:         
    • Microsoft (MSFT) to Deepen OpenAI Partnership, Invest Billions in ChatGPT Creator. (WSJ)
    • Google (GOOG) to Reduce Top Executive Bonuses, CEO Sundar Pichai Says. (WSJ)
    • HighPeak Energy (HPK) stock rises 10% as company explores possible sale. (MarketWatch)
    • Agilent (A) CEO vows no layoffs in 2023. (MarketWatch)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • AmerisourceBergen (ABC) will change name to Cencora in 2023.
    • Capri Holdings (CPRI) appoints Cedric Wilmotte as CEO of Michael Kors brand.  Mr. Wilmotte recently served as the interim Chief Executive Officer for Versace from January through September 2022 and is currently Versace’s Chief Operating Officer.
    • Cardlytics (CDLX) announces appointment of Amit Gupta as its COO.
    • Codexis (CDXS) Announces Appointment of Sri Ryali as Chief Financial Officer.
    • The Citizens Bank (CIZN) announces Stacy M. Brantley as next CEO.
    • Enovix (ENVX) Announces CTO and CCO Transitions.
    • Entegris (ENTG) CFO Greg Graves to retire in 2023 after a successor is named.
    • Four Corners Property Trust (FCPT) appoints James Brat as Chief Operating Officer.
    • Intel (INTC) Chairman Omar Ishrak Steps Down, appoints Frank Yeary as new independent chair of its board of directors.
    • Jacobs Engineering (J) Bob Pragada Assumes Role as Chief Executive Officer.
    • Ocwen Fincl (OCN) CEO Glen Messina also named as Chair of the Board.
    • Raytheon Technologies (RTX) Plan to Realign into Three Business Segments.
    • Rayonier (RYN) CFO Mark McHugh also named as President.
    • Tricida (TCDA) is being delisted from Nasdaq.
    • Vicarious Surgical (RBOT) Announces Changes to Board of Directors.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Civitas Resources, Inc. (CIVI) Repurchases $300 Million of its Common Stock.
    • IBTX Announces Share Repurchase Plan up to $125 million of its outstanding common stock.
  • Stock Splits or News: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • HAL raises quarterly dividend 33% to 16c per share.
    • Hess Midstream Partners (HESM) increases quarterly distribution by 1.2% to $0.5696 per Class A share.
    • Simmons First National (SFNC) increases quarterly dividend to $0.20 per share, a $0.01 bump.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -10, Dow Jones -86,  NASDAQ -49,  and Russell 2000 -4. (as of 7:58 a.m. EST).  Asian markets are higher.  Europe markets are trading lower. VIX Futures are at 20.95 from 21.04 yesterday.  Gold and Silver higher with Copper lower.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher as well. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.50% unchanged from yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $22,911 from $22,905 yesterday, higher by 0.09%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Industrials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Communication Services, Consumer Cyclical, Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Real Estate, and Financial  of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials, Energy, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, and Communication Services of note.

U.S. stocks rose Monday as investors bet the Federal Reserve will dial back its interest-rate increases and braced for a busy week of corporate earnings reports.  The S&P 500 added 47.20 points, or 1.2%, to 4019.81. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 254.07 points, or 0.8%, to 33629.56. The Nasdaq Composite moved 223.98 points, or 2% higher, to 11364.41.  The stock market has rebounded to start 2023 as investors predict moderating inflation will encourage the Fed to ease its interest-rate lifts and potentially cut rates later this year. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close: 

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: DHI +0.52, PCAR +0.44, LMT +0.42, DHR +0.34, JNJ +0.11, AUB +0.08, GE +0.08, HAL +0.05, IVZ +0.03, CBU +0.03, RTX +0.02 of note.
  • Flat: VZ +0.00, TRV +0.00 of note.
  • Misses: MMM (0.11), UNP (0.10) of note.
  • Still to Report: COLB, GATX, ONB, SFNC of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: CZR, IPAR, ALB, JNJ of note.
  • Negative Guidance: GE, MMM, VZ of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: HPK +15%, CBAY +4%, YEXT +4%, PLRX +4%, SSL +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: MGA -14%, PFLT -7% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: BBBY, VZ, LULU, AMD, BX, LYFT, JNJ, LMT (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  Stocks Slip As Risk Rebound Faces Big Tech Test. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story:  U.S. Confronts China Over Companies Ties to Russian War Efforts. (Bloomberg)
  • Several Ukrainian Officials fired as Corruption Scandal expands. (NYT)
  • Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell plans to stay out of debt negotiations with President Biden and the House GOP. (CNN)
  • President Biden may have to act unilaterally to avoid a default. (Bloomberg)
  • Department of Justice may sue Google over digital ad market dominance. (Bloomberg)
  • Amazon (AMZN) adds generic prescription peak for Prime members. (CNBC)
  • 3M (MMM) to cut 2,500 jobs as demand weakens and profits drop. (Reuters)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score goes to 88% from 80% as Industrials ($INDU) clear some hurdles.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing; The Vice President attends, 10:15 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 1:30 p.m. EST
    • The President hosts Democratic Congressional leaders; The Vice President attends, 3:00 p.m. EST
    • The President hosts a reception for new members of Congress; The Vice President and The Second Gentleman attend, 5:20 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • PMI Composite Flash 9:45 a.m. EST
  • Richmond Fed Mfg Index 10:00 a.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers: With the FOMC announcement coming we do have a Fed blackout period set for January 21 until Feb 2.

M&A Activity:

  • Elevance Health (ELV) to acquire Blue Cross and Blue Shield of Louisiana.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: