CAPIS Morning Note – 01/18/23: Stocks Look To Test 4000 on S&P 500 This Week?

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.20% at 3990.97 from Friday higher by 0.40% at 3999.09.  The overnight high of 4029.50 was hit at 9:45 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 3996.25 at 7:15 a.m. EST, a range of ~33 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday lower by -0.20% at 3990.97 from Friday higher by 0.40% at 3999.09.  The overnight high of 4029.50 was hit at 9:45 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 3996.25 at 7:15 a.m. EST, a range of ~33 points high to low.  At 7:10 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was higher by +7.00.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats: UAL +0.33, IBKR +0.13, PRGS +0.03.
  • Flat: HWC.
  • Misses: PNFP (0.28), UCBI (0.08), FULT (0.04).

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in a while, you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

 

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • Athena Consumer Acquisition Corp. (ACAQ) Announces Extension of Deadline to Complete Initial Business Combination.
    • ROSS Acquisition Corp II (ROSS) and APRINOIA Therapeutics announce business combination agreement to create publicly listed company focused on neurodegenerative diseases.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • FULC: 9.61 Million shares offering priced at $13 per share.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • CEQP: Pricing of Upsized Private Offering of $600 Million of Senior Notes Due 2031.
    • CLH: Prices Offering of Senior Notes Due 2031.
    • RIG: Announces Pricing of $1.175 Billion of Senior Secured Notes due 2030.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ARR: Form 8K.. entered into a Fourth Amended and Restated Equity Sales Agreement.
    • BLUE: Announces Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.
    • ENSV: Filed Form S-1 .. Common Stock Offering.
    • FULC: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock $100.0 million of shares.. GS, Leerink and Piper bookmanagers.
    • FUV: Proposed Public Offering.. Alliance global bookmanager.
    • MYO: Closing of $6.5 Million Upsized Public Offering.
    • SVRE: Filed Form S-1..809,061 American Depositary Shares Representing 4,405,305 Ordinary Shares.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • KRP: Filed Form S-3.. 16,842,363 Common Units Offered by the Selling Unitholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • EPSN: Filed Form S-3. $100 Million Mixed Security Shelf.
    • IRON $300 Million mixed shelf.
    • LOB: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
    • KRP Filed $125 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt Filing/Notes:
    • DISH: Places Offering of $1,500,000,000 in Senior Secured Notes.
  • Tender Offer: None of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: OLED +6%, MRNA +6% of note.
    • Trading Down: BGFV -7%, FULC -5% of note.
  • News Since The Close:         
    • Moderna (MRNA) Announces Mrna-1345, An Investigational Respiratory Syncytial Virus (Rsv) Vaccine, Has Met Primary Efficacy Endpoints In Phase 3 Trial In Older Adults. (Release) (MarketWatch Story)
    • United (UAL) results top estimates as demand remains resilient despite high fares and raises guidance. (CNBC)
    • Interactive Brokers (IBKR) blows out earnings by $0.13. (Business Wire)
    • Progress Software (PGRS) stock weakens on mixed quarter, outlook. (MarketWatch)
    • Seiko Epson and Universal Display (OLED) Announce OLED Evaluation Agreement (BusinessWire)
    • General Dynamics (GD) awarded $149.5 Million U.S. Navy contract.
    • Pan Am Silver (PAAS) announced 2022 production results of 18.5 million ounces within the guidance range. (PR Newswire)
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Aqua Metals (AQMS) regains compliance with Nasdaq listing requirements.
    • Farfetch (FTCH) announces changes to leadership team.
    • JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Elects Alicia Boler Davis to its Board of Directors.
    • Mitek Systems (MITK) retains Fuad Ahmad as its interim CFO.
    • Olo Inc. (OLO) COO Nithya B Das to resign.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) announced a new share repurchase program for up to $125 million of the Company’s common stock.
    • Radian Group (RDN) approves new $300 million share repurchase authorization.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • ARTH announces 1-for-200 reverse stock split.
    • Eargo Effects (EAR) 1-for-20 Reverse Stock Split.
    • ZW Data Action Technologies Inc. (CNET) Announces Reverse Stock Split.
  • Dividends Announcements or News:
    • Ohio Valley (OVBC) declares $0.21 dividend.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +12, Dow Jones +55,  NASDAQ +42,  and Russell 2000 +4. (as of 8:03 a.m. EST).  Asian markets are higher ex the Kospi.  Europe markets are trading higher. VIX Futures are at 20.70 from 21.06 yesterday.  Gold, Silver and Copper higher.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.474% from 3.548%  yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $21,231 from $21,242 yesterday, lower by -0.489%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Energy, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Basic Materials, Communication Services, Industrials, Financial, Healthcare of note.
  • One Month Winners:  Financial, Basic Materials, Energy of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrials, and Financial  of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Industrials, Energy, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Basic Materials, Consumer Cyclical, and Communication Services of note.

U.S. stock indexes wobbled Tuesday, following sharply lower earnings from two of the biggest investment banks and Chinese data that showed a near-historic slowdown in economic growth.  The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 391.76 points, or 1.1%, to 33910.85, weighed down by declines in shares of Goldman Sachs Group and property-and-casualty insurer Travelers.  The broad-based S&P 500 index fell 8.12 points, or 0.2%, to 3990.97. The tech-focused Nasdaq Composite edged up 15.96 points, or 0.1%, to 11095.11, rising for seven consecutive trading days, its best stretch since November 2021. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close:

  • Thursday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: PLD +0.03.
  • Flat:  of note.
  • Misses: JBHT (0.52), PNC (0.47).
  • Still to Report: SCHW.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: SWAV, TRHC, PRGS, BNR of note.
  • Negative Guidance: BGFV, PLD of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: MRNA +6% of note.
  • Gap Down: PNFP -6%, PRGS -4%, HWC -4% of note.

Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: UAL MRNA IBM JBHT PNC IBKR SKX LEVI GDDY  (CNBC)
  • 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Blackstone (BX) CEO Schwartzman Says US Needs New Generation of Political Leaders. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg Most Read Story: Microsoft (MSFT) to Cut Engineering Jobs This Week as Layoffs Go Deeper. (Bloomberg)
  • Russian President Putin may be ready to announce a second round of mobilization in Ukraine. (CNBC)
  • The Bank of Japan (BOJ) left rates unchanged.
  • Amazon (AMZN) Layoffs to Affect 18,000. (Bloomberg)
  • Goldman says investors are turning to Non-US stocks. (Bloomberg)
  • Mortgage Demand jumps 28% for the week as rates drop. (CNBC)
  • Credit Suisse (CS) CEO says outflows have slowed very significantly. (CNBC)
  • Aramco CEO warns of potential oil shortages as China demand set to surge. (CNBC)
  • Biggest price drops for 2023 – used cars, bacon and smartphones. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

  • Score inches down to 88% from 91%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre, 3:00 p.m. EST

Economic: 

  • MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
    • The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased last week to 6.23% from 6.42%
    • Mortgage Applications (WOW) Actual: 27.9% VS 1.2% Previous
    • Composite: +27.9%, Purchase: +24.7%, ReFi: +34.2%
  • December PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at -0.1% from 0.3% in November.
  • December Retail Sales is also out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at -0.8% from -0.6% om November.
  • December Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at -0.1% from -0.2% last month.
  • NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to come in at 31 unchanged.
  • The January Fed Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.
  • Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
  • Business Inventories 10:00 a.m. EST
  • Beige Book 2:00 p.m. EST
  • API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

  • Federal Research Atlanta President Raphael Bostic 9:00 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard 9:30 a.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Kansas City President Esther George 1:00 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Philadelphia President Patrick Harker 3:15 p.m. EST
  • Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Lorie Logan 5:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

  • Bausch + Lomb (BLCO) Acquires AcuFocus, Inc.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • B. Riley Oncology Conference (01/18/23-01/19/23)
    • CIBC Western Institutional Investor Conference (01/18/23-01/20/23)
    • JP Morgan Hyper Growth Private Technology Company Conference
    • Sidoti Micro-Cap Virtual Conference (01/18/23-01/19/23)
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
        • Capital Link’s Corporate Presentation
        • Peters & Co. Winter Energy Conference (01/17/23-01/20/23)
        • Santander Latin American Conference (01/17/23-01/19/23)
  • Company Meetings: ADRA, DHI, OCAX.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ANGN, CLNN, INTR, NEWT, OKYO, WKEY 
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings: None of note.
    • CoreLogic’s INTRCONNECT event

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: