Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Monday lower by -0.37% at 4765.98 from Friday higher by 0.08% at 4783.83. The overnight high was hit at 4800.75 at 7:00 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4768.75 at 4:20 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 32 points as of 7:15 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 23.60. The average for May-December average was 20.87 from 21.43 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -18 points at 7:15 a.m. EST.
Executive Summary: Stocks were lower for the sixth time this month against four up days. The market has changed its complexion from December. Let’s see how Retail Sales move markets.
- December Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to rise by 0.40% from 0.30%.
- Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr speaks at 9:00 a.m. EST
- December Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST and is expected to drop to -0.10% from 0.20%.
- January NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to grow to 38 from 37.
- The Latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.
- Federal Reserve New York President John Williams speaks at 3:00 p.m. EST
Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: PRGS +0.011, WAFD +0.08, HWC +0.07, FULT +0.02, PNFP +0.01 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: IBKR (0.01) of note.
- IPOs Priced or News:
- Morgan Stanley’s (MS) Direct Lending Fund commences initial public offering of 5.0 million shares of common stock; estimated price for offering is $20.67 per share with shares trading under ticker symbol “MSDL” on NYSE.
- New SPACs launched/News:
- Vision Sensing Acquisition Corp. (VSAC) Announces Definitive Agreement and Plan of Merger with Mediforum Co., Ltd. The Combined Company Is Expected To Trade On Nasdaq Post-Closing Under A New Ticker Symbol.
- Secondaries Priced:
- DATS: Announces Pricing of $1.8 Million Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock.
- PHUN – Pricing of $7.0 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-the-Market Under Nasdaq Rules. (Roth bookmanager)
- Notes Priced of note:
- ARCC: Prices Public Offering of $1.00 Billion 5.875% Unsecured Notes Due 2029.
- Common Stock filings/Notes:
- ALEC: Announces proposed public offering of common stock.
- BFRI: Filed Form S-1.. Stock and warrants.
- DATS: Proposed Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock. (EF Hutton Bookmanager)
- ENSC: Filed Form S-1.. Stock and warrants.
- GEVO – Files New S-3 Ahead of Expiration, Updates ATM Agreement.
- INTR: Commencement of Follow-on Public Offering of its Class A Common Shares.
- MARK: Form 8K.. entered into an amendment to the Purchase Agreement.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
- Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- BETS: Files for a $500M mixed shelf offering.
- Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
- Tender Offer: None of note.
- Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close :
- After Hours Movers:
- PI: +11% Prelim Q4 Revenue beating guidance
- PRGS: +5% Earnings
- NTRA: +5% Update on Ravgen Trial
- PHUN: -68% Pricing of $7.0 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-the-Market Under Nasdaq Rules
- MARK: -28% entered into an amendment to the Purchase Agreement
- ALEC: -6% Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock
- IBKR: -2.7% Earnings
- News Items After the Close:
- JetBlue’s (JBLU) $3.8 Billion Spirit Deal Is Turning Into a Nightmare. (Bloomberg)
- JetBlue (JBLU) CEO Robin Hayes to Step Down in February. (Bloomberg)
- Amazon (AMZN) launches generative AI tool to answer shoppers’ questions. (CNBC)
- Kinnate BioPharma (KNTE) to reduce its workforce by approximately 56%.
- Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- BP appoints Murray Auchincloss as CEO.
- Compass Minerals (CMP) names Edward Dowling Jr. as new president and Chief Executive Officer.
- Day One (DAWN) Announces Two New Appointments to Board of Directors.
- Definitive Healthcare (DH) CEP Robert Musslewhite steps down; Founder and Executive Chairman Jason Krantz to serve as interim CEO.
- DocuSign (DOCU) announces that Inhi Cho Suh, President, Product and Technology, will step down from her position.
- Eaton (ETN) announces that Olivier Leonetti has been named executive vice president and chief financial officer.
- NYSE to Commence Delisting Proceedings Against Electriq Power Holdings, Inc. (ELIQ)
- EUDA Health Holdings Limited (EUDA) Has Received Nasdaq Notification Regarding Minimum Market Value Deficiency.
- FARO Techs (FARO) promotes Matthew Horwath to SVP and CFO.
- Gildan Activewear (GIL) provides update on former CEO.
- Guardforce AI (GFAI) Appoints Yuting Zuo as Chief Financial Officer.
- Masimo (MASI) names Disney’s (DIS) Bob Chapek to Board.
- NRx Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NRXP) Announces Receipt of Positive Nasdaq Listing Determination.
- TuSimple (TSP) Announces Intention to Delist from Nasdaq.
- WATT: Energous Announces Change of Chief Financial Officer.
- Zoomcar (ZCAR) Announces the Appointment of Adarsh Menon as President.
- Buyback Announcements or News:
- EnLink Midstream (ENLC) expands 2023 common unit repurchase authorization of $250 million, authorized a 2024 $200 mln common unit repurchase plan. (see Dividends)
- Plexus (PLXS) announces new $50 million share repurchase program.
- Prosperity Bancshares (PB) announces that its Board of Directors authorized a stock repurchase program under which the Company may repurchase up to 5%, or ~4.7 million shares.
- Stock Splits or News: None of note.
- Dividends Announcements or News:
- Calavo Growers (CVGW) Declares Quarterly Dividend.
- Diversified Healthcare Trust (DHC) Announces 2023 Dividend Allocation.
- Enterprise Bancorp (EBTC) increases quarterly cash dividend to $0.24 per share from $0.23 per share.
- EnLink Midstream (ENLC) increases its quarterly distribution ~6% to $0.1325 per share from $0.125 per share.
- Penske Auto (PAG) increases quarterly dividend to $0.87 per share from $0.79 per share.
- Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 -19, Dow Jones -136, NASDAQ -79, and Russell 2000 -25. (as of 8:01 a.m. EST). Asia and Europe are lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.87 from 14.43 this morning. Gold and Silver are lower with Copper higher for a second morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.06% from 4.014% yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $42,601 from $42,917 lower by -1.35% this morning.
Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):
- Daily Positive Sectors: Technology (by a smidge) of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities, Industrial, Financial, Real Estate, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
- One Month Winners: Healthcare, Communication Services, and Real Estate of note.
- Three Month Winners: Real Estate, Technology, and Financial of note.
- Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Financial, and Technology of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Healthcare, Communication Services, and Consumer Defensive of note.
Stocks opened the week lower, hinting at why some investors believe the “everything rally” of late 2023 will be hard-pressed to continue. All three major indexes are in the red for 2024 after Tuesday’s session. The S&P 500 slipped 0.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.2%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6%, or 232 points. Investor optimism over the apparent end of Federal Reserve interest-rate increases has given way to more circumspection, grinding the end-of-year bond rally to a halt. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which rise as prices fall, edged upward Tuesday to 4.064%. (WSJ – edited by QPI)
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Wednesday After the Close:
- Thursday Before the Open:
Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: USB +0.28, CFG +0.25, SCHW +0.04, PLD +0.03 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: MANU (0.05) of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: ACLS, IDCC, PI, PRGS, EOLS, MAIN, PLD, CRNT of note.
- Negative Guidance: CVGW, PLXS, BGFV, MYO of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
- Gap Up: NTRA +9%, PI +7%, RCUS +5% of note.
- Gap Down: GOL -11%, BGFV -10%, ALEC -10%, CVGW -5%, IBKR -4%, FULT -4%, PLXS -4% of note.
Insider Action: No stock sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. KALV sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
- 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
- Bloomberg Lead Story: China’s Economic Growth Disappoints, Fueling Stimulus Calls. (Bloomberg)
- Bloomberg Most Shared Story: Blackstone’s defaulted NYC office loan for sale at 50% discount. (Bloomberg)
- Davos Live: Blinken signals more Biden-Xi interaction this year. (Bloomberg)
- ECB President Christine Lagarde says likely that rate cuts will begin this summer. (FT)
- Mortgage Demand surges more than 10% as lower rates lure homebuyers. (CNBC)
- Stock selloff deepens as Traders adjust rate bets: Markets Wrap. (Bloomberg)
- Tesla (TSLA) lowers prices in Germany. (Reuters)
- Charles Schwab (SCHW) profit halved but beats estimates. (MarketWatch)
- Bloomberg Big Take: How NBA Player Victor Wembanyama could be a billionaire by 33. (Podcast)
- NPR Marketplace: Banking fees, Apple fees and shipping fees. (Podcast)
- NY Times Daily: The War on the SAT. (Podcast)
- BBC Global News Daily Podcast: US calls for de-escalation in tensions in the Middle East. (Podcast)
- Wealthion: Geopolitical tensions and the global economy. Live at 11:00 a.m. EST. (Podcast)
Moving Average Update: Score backs down to 68% from 77%.
Geopolitical:
- President’s Public Schedule:
- The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EST
- Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby, 1:30 p.m. EST
- The President will host Congressional leaders at the White House to discuss the critical importance of his national security supplemental request, 3:15 p.m. EST
Economic:
- MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
- MBA Mortgage Applications: Composite: +10.4%, Purchase: +9.2%, ReFi: +10.8%
- U.S MBA Mortgage Applications (WOW) Actual: 10.4% VS 9.9% Previous
- U.S MBA 30-YEAR Mortgage Rate Actual 6.75% VS 6.81% Previous
- December Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to rise by 0.40% from 0.30%.
- Import and Export Prices 8:30 a.m. EST
Redbook Sales 8:55 a.m. EST
- December Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EST and is expected to drop to -0.10% from 0.20%.
- January NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to grow to 38 from 37.
- Business Inventories 10:00 a.m. EST
- 20-Yr Bond Auction 1:00 p.m. EST
- The Latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.
- API Crude Oil Data 4:30 p.m. EST
Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:
- Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr 9:00 a.m. EST
- Federal Reserve New York President John Williams 3:00 p.m. EST
M&A Activity and News:
- BP to acquire GETEC ENERGIE GmbH.
- GoPro (GPRO) to acquire Forcite Helmet Systems.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Sachs Innovation Forum
- Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
- CIBC Western Institutional Investor Conference (01/16/24-01/18/24)
- Fierce JPM Week
- Needham Growth Conference (01/15/24-01/18/24)
- Sidoti Micro Cap Investor Conference (01/16/24-01/17/24)
- Top Shareholder Meetings: DHI, HSCS, REVB, VSTM, ZDGE
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: CODI, HALO, RHP, SCHW, XXII, ZOM
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Company Event: None of note.
- Industry Meetings: None of note.
- Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
- Veterinary Meeting & Expo Conference
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
