CAPIS Morning Note – 01/16/24: It’s Cold Across The Lower 50 And Stocks Are Cooling Off As Well

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.08% at 4783.83 from Thursday lower by -0.07% at 4780.24. The overnight high was hit at 4813.50 at 6:25 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4785.50 at 5:35 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 28 points as of 6:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day…

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday higher by 0.08% at 4783.83 from Thursday lower by -0.07% at 4780.24. The overnight high was hit at 4813.50 at 6:25 p.m. EST while the overnight low was hit at 4785.50 at 5:35 a.m. EST. The range overnight was 28 points as of 6:30 a.m. EST. The 10-day average of the overnight range is at 23.60 from 21.80.  The average for May-December average was 20.87 from 21.43 during May-November. Currently, the S&P 500 is lower by -25 points at 6:30 a.m. EST.
Executive Summary: Stocks are cold like most of us this morning. Is a warmup coming? More earnings and economic data could help this out.
  • January NY Empire Manufacturing Index will be out at 8:30 a.m. EST and came in last month at -14.50 against an estimate of -4.0.
  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Christopher Waller 11:00 a.m. EST

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats: None of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note:
    • KRG: Pricing of $350 Million Senior Notes Offering.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • ABVC: Form S-1 Filed.. 10,403,969 shares of Common Stock.
    • CING: Filed Form S-1 .. Common stock and warrants.
    • ERNA: Form S-3 Filed.. Up to 18,233,359 Shares of Common Stock.
    • EVAX: Filed Form F-1.. Up To 1,326,260 American Depositary Shares Representing 13,262,600 Ordinary Shares.
    • HCTI: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 12,183,612 Shares of Common Stock.
    • INAB: Filed Form S-3.. 42,703,475 Shares of Common Stock.
    • MBOT: Form S-1 Filed … 1,769,966 Shares of Common Stock.
    • NOTE: Form S-3 Filed.. Up to 9,451,515 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • PRFX: Form F-3 Filed.. 968,545 Ordinary Shares.
    • THCH: Filed Form RW.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • TPIC: Files for 4,600,732 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
    • WBX: Files for 10,360,657 shares of common stock by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ADIL: Form S-3 Filed.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • CPHI: Filed Form S-3.. $50,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Tender Offer:
    • Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) recommends shareholders reject TRC Capital Investment’s below-market “mini tender” offer for common shares.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • NMRK: Completes Offering Of $600 Million Of 7.500% Senior Notes.
    • SATS: Announces Exchange Offers and Consent Solicitations for 0% Convertible Senior Notes due 2025 and 3.375% Convertible Senior Notes due 2026 Issued by DISH Network Corporation.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Weekend:

  • Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
    • Trading Up: GRTS 43.9%, SLDB 39.4%, AMRN 37.1%, SATS 27.1%, JNPR 25.4%, SAGE 23.7%, HRTX 21.5%, FATE 20.7%, SGH 20.4%, SRPT 20.0%, CROX 19.6%, ESPR 18.4%, CCJ 18.2%, APLS 17.8%, VCEL 17.6%, NXE 16.5%, DOCU 16.3%.
    • Trading Down: GRFS -36.5%, RVNC -28.9%, PACB -28.6%, BEAT -24.3%, IRBT -20.1%, TGTX -19.8%, GLT -19.2%, SNBR -19.2%, ALTM -18.1%, SPWR -18.0%, TLRY -18.0%, TSE -17.3%, EBIX -17.2%, CREE -17.1%.
  • News Items After the Close:
    • Federal Reserve Chicago President Austan Goolsbee: PPI data is the most noisy — do not take too much heart from it.
    • EQT, KKR Are Among Suitors for $5 Billion Broadcom (AVGO) Asset. (Bloomberg)
    • Discover Financial Services (DFS): Net charge-offs rise to 1.98% as of December 2023 from 1.79% as of November 2023.
    • Marijuana reclassification proposed over lower public health risk, documents show – (WAPO)
  • News Items Over the Weekend:
    • The Score: Stocks That Defined the Week – PEP, COIN, BAC, CHK, HTZ (WSJ)
    • US Merchant Vessel Struck as Shippers Told to Avoid Red Sea. (Bloomberg)
    • Apple (AAPL) is officially shutting down their entire AI division in California. (Bloomberg)
    • Federal Reserve Atlanta President Raphael Bostic: Rates Should Remain On Hold Until Summer To Curb Inflation – Ft
    • UBER shutting down alcohol delivery service Drizly. (Axios)
    • Boeing’s (BA) Pile of Problems Gets Bigger as a Crucial Buyer Hesitates. (WSJ)
    • GOLDMAN: “.. We expect much stronger GDP growth in 2024 than consensus .. “A consumer slowdown looks unlikely .. “A sharper deterioration in the labor market is unlikely .. “Something finally ‘breaking’ due to higher interest rates is unlikely .. because the peak growth hit from higher rates .. is well behind us ..” (CQ CNBC)
    •  Barron’s:
      • Positive View: GOOG, AAPL, AMZN, META, NVDA, MSFT, TSLA, XOM, CVX, UAL, AAL, FDX, BRK.B, V, UNH of note.
      • Cautious View: None of note.
      • Mixed View: None of note.
  • Erlanger Type 1 Short Squeezes and Type 4 Long Squeezes reporting earnings this week:

  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • Bowlero (BOWL) promotes Lev Ekster to President.
    • ETAO Announces receiving a staff determination – Delinquency letter from Nasdaq.
    • Copart (CPRT) appoints Hessel Verhage as Chief Operating Officer.
    • Fisker (FSR) Adds Executives to Leadership Team as the Company Accelerates Growth in 2024.
    • IceCure Medical (ICCM) Regains Compliance with Nasdaq Minimum Closing Bid Price Rule.
    • Kaltura (KLTR) Announces appoints John Doherty as CFO.
    • Lifecore Biomedical, Inc. (LFCR) Receives Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Delayed Quarterly Report.
    • NLSP:  Notice of Deficiency with Nasdaq Continued Listing Requirements.
    • Neurogene (NGNE) announces appointment of Julie Jordan, M.D., as Chief Medical Officer.
    • SURG: Jeremy Gies Appointed to President of SurgePays, Inc.
    • TeraWulf (WULF) Announces Appointment of New Independent Directors to the Board.
    • Westport Fuel Systems (WPRT) names Dan Sceli as CEO.
    • Williams-Sonoma’s (WSM) Pottery Barn CEO Marta Benson to retire.
    • Xinyuan Real Estate (XIN) discloses Chapter 11 bankruptcy petitions of two subsidiaries.
  • Buyback Announcements or News: 
    • Millicom (TIGO) share repurchase activity.
    • STMicroelectronics (STM) Announces Status of Common Share Repurchase Program.
  • Stock Splits or News:
    • AULT down pm on Co. to carry out 1-for-25 reverse stock split.
    • Other Reverse split stocks for today: UXIN 1/10, SFE 1/100, RNAZ 1/40.
  • Dividends Announcements or News: 
    • Mercantile Bank (MBWM) raises quarterly dividend by $0.01 to $0.35 per share.
  • Insider Sales Of Note: None of note.

What’s Happening This MorningFutures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -15, Dow Jones -61, NASDAQ -63, and Russell 2000 -12.  (as of 7:53 a.m. EST).  Asia and Europe are lower this morning. VIX Futures are at 14.87 from 14.43 this morning.  Gold and Silver are lower with Copper higher this morning. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Crude Oil are higher with Natural Gas lower. US 10-year Treasury sees its yield at 4.014% from 3.999%  yesterday. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $42,917 from $45,925 higher by +0.01% this morning.

Sector Action(1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Real Estate, Utilities, Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • One Month Winners: Healthcare, Communication Services, and Real Estate Financial, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Real Estate, Technology, Utilities, and Financial of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Communication Services, Financial, and Technology Energy of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners:  Healthcare, Communication Services, and Consumer Defensive Utilities, and Energy of note.

The S&P 500 overcame big declines in airline stocks and shares of companies that rely on discretionary spending Friday to inch closer to a new all-time high.  The benchmark stock index ended Friday less than 0.1% higher, within 0.3% of a record high that has stood for more than two years. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also added less than 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.3%, or 118 points.  Each index ended the week higher, after declining in the first week of January. Many analysts believe the market’s January performance sets the tone for the rest of the year.  (WSJ – edited by QPI)

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Softwaresorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Tuesday After the Close:

  • Wednesday Before the Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: GS +1.86, PNC +1.04, MS +0.06 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: C of note.
  • Negative Guidance: PNC, INMD of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart:  

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: HMST +11%, TALO +8%, EFXT +5% of note.
  • Gap Down: EGO -5%, TBPH -5%, KEN -4%, BIDU -4% of note.

Insider Action: TLYS sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & MagsRepeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • 5 Things To Know Before the Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story:  A Wary World Braces For Trump’s Return To The White House. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg  Most Shared StoryRamaswamy leaves 2024 race, throws support behind Trump. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks drops while Dollar rallies to one month high: MarketsWrap. (Bloomberg)
  • China keeps weighing on the world in the view of  economists at Davos. (Bloomberg)
  • Elon Musk seeks to up his voting power at Tesla (TSLA) to 25%. (CNBC)
  • Ripple CEO calls U.S. SEC Chairman Gensler a “political liability”. (CNBC)
  • Goldman Sachs (GS) tops revenue estimate. (CNBC)
  • Morgan Stanley (MS) revenue tops estimates. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Odd Lots: The massive economic impact if China invades Taiwan.  (Podcast)
  • NPR Marketplace:  Could hydropanels solve the water crisis. (Podcast)
  • NY Times Daily: Trump’s domination and the battle for #2. (Podcast)
  • BBC Global News Daily Podcast:  US Cargo ship hit by Houthi missile. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion:   Bianco’s bold Bond and Bitcoin Predictions. (Podcast)

Moving Average Update:  Score backs down to 77% from 82%.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 10:00 a.m. EST
    • Press Briefing by Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre and NSC Coordinator for Strategic Communications John Kirby, 1:30 p.m. EST

Economic:

  • January NY Empire Manufacturing Index will be out at 8:30 a.m. EST and came in last month at -14.50 against an estimate of -4.0.
  • 4-Week Bill Announcement 11:00 a.m. EST
  • 3,6-Month Bill Auction 11:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers

  • Federal Reserve Board of Governors Christopher Waller 1100 a.m. EST

M&A Activity and News

  • HomeStreet (HMST) and FirstSun Capital Bancorp announce transformational strategic merger and $175 million equity raise; parties expect the closing of the merger to occur in the middle of 2024.
  • Talos Energy (TALO) acquires QuarterNorth Energy for $1.29 billion.
  • Vertex (VERX) Withdraws Offer to Acquire Pagero.
  • Restaurant Brands (QSR) to buy Carrols Restaurant Group ( TAST ) for $1 billion. They are the largest franchisee of Burger King.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Barclays Launchpad: Investing in Space Conference
    • CIBC Western Institutional Investor Conference (01/16/24-01/18/24)
    • Fierce JPM Week
    • Needham Growth Conference (01/15/24-01/18/24)
    • Sidoti Micro Cap Investor Conference (01/16/24-01/17/24)
    • Water Tower Research Furniture Furnishings Virtual Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: ABVC, GOVX, SJT
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AMPS, MNST
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • Hawaiian Eye and Retina Meeting
    • ODDO BHF Forum
    • Veterinary Meeting & Expo Conference
      • Previously posted and ongoing conferences: None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades: