CAPIS Global Recap – 9/30/2019
Asian Headlines Asia wrapped up the last day of the quarter with most indices closing lower. With mainland China shut the balance of the week and next Monday for their National Day holiday, volume was surprisingly lower on the session, off over 40%. Focus was on PMI readings out of China with the official reading…
Asian Headlines
Asia wrapped up the last day of the quarter with most indices closing lower. With mainland China shut the balance of the week and next Monday for their National Day holiday, volume was surprisingly lower on the session, off over 40%. Focus was on PMI readings out of China with the official reading beating estimates but still remaining in contraction. On that Shanghai/Shenzhen both closed down ~1% on broad losses. IT and Communication names led lower with Financials and Energy names also weaker. The Nikkei fared better but still was off with Energy name down over 3%. Hong Kong finished up with Consumer Staples and Energy however leading on the day.
Back to China, Manufacturing PMI of 49.8 was ahead of the 49.6 estimate and a hair above the prior reading of 49.5. New orders though moved into expansion territory despite the The Caixin reading, which uses a smaller sample and focuses on smaller firms, ticked up to 51.4, vs the 50.2 estimates and 50.4 prior result. This is the second month of expansion and the highest reading since February of last year. Official Non-manufacturing PMI held steady at 53.7. On the trade war front the US Treasury earlier took off the table a headline that weighed on US indices Friday, that the US would block or delist Chinese firms from US markets. TTN reported a US press story noted the Nasdaq is slowing approvals for Chinese IPO’s and upping restrictions however.
Back to economics Japanese Industrial Production fell 1.2% MoM in August, missing estimates but Vehicle Production though rose 11.8% vs the prior drop of 1.5%. Retail sales also ticked up. Housing starts fell 7.1%, again weaker while Construction orders slumped 26%. The BoJ amended its JGB purchase schedule today, upping purchases of 1 to 3 year maturities by ¥20B while reducing 3-5 year purchases by the same.
Note that Hong Kong will be shut tomorrow as well.
European Headlines
Europe is mostly up on the session with slight gains as sectors are evenly mixed with gains vs losses. Construction and Banks are the two leaders while Tech names are off ~50bps. Turnover on the Stoxx 600 is lower by 30%. Several bits of eco are out including GDP in the UK that remained largely inline with estimates, down .2% QoQ. German inflation remains flattish with unemployment contracting. Unemployment for the region fell to 7.4%, its lowest level in 11 years. Markit PMI readings ramp up tomorrow.
Bonds are trading a hair lower today with the UK 10 year gilt trading at 50bps and the German Bund at -.566%. Oil prices are lower as is Gold with Saudi Arabia calling for a non-military approach to Iran.
- Ahead of a meeting today the board of Credit Suisse +1.2% is said to back CEO Thiam as they look for who to blame for a spy scandal. Calls for his firing were post headlines that the firm had hired a private eye to follow a former employee that moved to UBS and was suspected of poaching employees. Several large shareholders have also publicly said they support Thiam.
- Steel producer Kloeckner +.7% shook off earlier weakness to trade higher post a news story in Handelsblatt noting merger talks between them and ThyssenKrupp -1.3% are over. The story said the deal was nixed when Kloeckner became away of the firing of Thyssen’s CEO.
- EDF +2.7% shut a British coal-burning power plant that has operated for 50 years, powering over 3M homes. The unit produced more than 500 terawatt hours of electricity in its life.
- Game-maker Funcom +19% with Tencent taking a 29% stake in the firm.
Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |||
SK | 1) | Industrial Production SA MoM | Aug | -1.00% | -1.40% | 2.60% | 2.80% |
SK | 2) | Industrial Production YoY | Aug | -0.20% | -2.90% | 0.60% | — |
SK | 3) | Cyclical Leading Index Change | Aug | — | -0.1 | -0.3 | — |
UK | 4) | Lloyds Business Barometer | Sep | — | 2 | 1 | — |
JN | 5) | Retail Sales YoY | Aug | 0.70% | 2.00% | -2.00% | — |
JN | 6) | Retail Sales MoM | Aug | 2.40% | 4.80% | -2.30% | — |
JN | 7) | Dept. Store, Supermarket Sales YoY | Aug | 0.80% | 0.40% | -4.80% | — |
JN | 8) | Industrial Production MoM | Aug P | -0.50% | -1.20% | 1.30% | — |
JN | 9) | Industrial Production YoY | Aug P | -3.90% | -4.70% | 0.70% | — |
IR | 10) | Bank of Ireland Economic Pulse | Sep | — | 76.2 | 79.1 | — |
AU | 11) | Melbourne Institute Inflation MoM | Sep | — | 0.10% | 0.00% | — |
AU | 12) | Melbourne Institute Inflation YoY | Sep | — | 1.50% | 1.70% | — |
CH | 13) | Composite PMI | Sep | — | 53.1 | 53 | — |
CH | 14) | Manufacturing PMI | Sep | 49.6 | 49.8 | 49.5 | — |
CH | 15) | Non-manufacturing PMI | Sep | 53.9 | 53.7 | 53.8 | — |
AU | 16) | Private Sector Credit MoM | Aug | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.20% | — |
AU | 17) | Private Sector Credit YoY | Aug | 3.00% | 2.90% | 3.10% | — |
CH | 18) | Caixin China PMI Mfg | Sep | 50.2 | 51.4 | 50.4 | — |
JN | 19) | Vehicle Production YoY | Jul | — | 11.80% | -1.50% | — |
JN | 20) | Housing Starts YoY | Aug | -5.90% | -7.10% | -4.10% | — |
JN | 21) | Annualized Housing Starts | Aug | 0.901m | 0.891m | 0.910m | — |
JN | 22) | Construction Orders YoY | Aug | — | -25.90% | 26.90% | — |
IN | 23) | Bloomberg Sept. India Economic Survey (Table) | |||||
DE | 24) | GDP SA QoQ | 2Q F | — | 0.90% | 0.80% | — |
DE | 25) | GDP SA YoY | 2Q F | — | 2.60% | 2.30% | — |
DE | 26) | Unemployment Rate Gross Rate | Aug | — | 3.80% | 3.80% | — |
DE | 27) | Unemployment Rate SA | Aug | — | 3.10% | 3.10% | — |
NO | 28) | Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel MoM | Aug | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.80% | — |
GE | 29) | Retail Sales MoM | Aug | 0.50% | 0.50% | -2.20% | -0.80% |
GE | 30) | Retail Sales NSA YoY | Aug | 2.90% | 3.20% | 4.40% | 5.20% |
FI | 31) | Trade Balance | Jul F | — | -448m | -435m | — |
GE | 32) | CPI Saxony MoM | Sep | — | -0.10% | -0.20% | — |
GE | 33) | CPI Saxony YoY | Sep | — | 1.00% | 1.40% | — |
SP | 34) | GDP QoQ | 2Q F | 0.50% | 0.40% | 0.50% | — |
SP | 35) | GDP YoY | 2Q F | 2.30% | 2.00% | 2.30% | — |
SZ | 36) | KOF Leading Indicator | Sep | 96.2 | 93.2 | 97 | 95.5 |
SP | 37) | CPI MoM | Sep P | 0.10% | 0.00% | -0.10% | — |
SP | 38) | CPI YoY | Sep P | 0.30% | 0.10% | 0.30% | — |
SP | 39) | CPI EU Harmonised MoM | Sep P | 0.50% | 0.40% | -0.10% | — |
SP | 40) | CPI EU Harmonised YoY | Sep P | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.40% | — |
AS | 41) | PPI MoM | Aug | — | -0.30% | 0.20% | — |
AS | 42) | PPI YoY | Aug | — | -0.80% | -0.20% | — |
SW | 43) | Wages Non-Manual Workers YoY | Jul | — | 2.80% | 2.60% | — |
GE | 44) | Unemployment Change (000’s) | Sep | 5.0k | -10.0k | 4.0k | 2.0k |
GE | 45) | Unemployment Claims Rate SA | Sep | 5.00% | 5.00% | 5.00% | — |
NO | 46) | Norges Bank Daily FX Purchases | Oct | — | -700m | -700m | — |
SZ | 47) | Total Sight Deposits CHF | 27-Sep | — | 592.2b | 592.1b | — |
SZ | 48) | Domestic Sight Deposits CHF | 27-Sep | — | 477.9b | 476.2b | — |
GE | 49) | CPI Brandenburg MoM | Sep | — | -0.10% | -0.20% | — |
GE | 50) | CPI Brandenburg YoY | Sep | — | 1.30% | 1.40% | — |
GE | 51) | CPI Hesse MoM | Sep | — | 0.00% | -0.10% | — |
GE | 52) | CPI Hesse YoY | Sep | — | 1.20% | 1.30% | — |
GE | 53) | CPI Bavaria MoM | Sep | — | 0.00% | -0.10% | — |
GE | 54) | CPI Bavaria YoY | Sep | — | 1.10% | 1.40% | — |
IT | 55) | Unemployment Rate | Aug P | 9.90% | 9.50% | 9.90% | 9.80% |
GE | 56) | CPI North Rhine Westphalia MoM | Sep | — | -0.10% | 0.00% | — |
GE | 57) | CPI North Rhine Westphalia YoY | Sep | — | 1.30% | 1.50% | — |
GE | 58) | CPI Baden Wuerttemberg MoM | Sep | — | 0.10% | -0.20% | — |
GE | 59) | CPI Baden Wuerttemberg YoY | Sep | — | 1.20% | 1.50% | — |
HK | 60) | Budget Balance HKD | Aug | — | -14.8b | -12.3b | — |
UK | 61) | GDP QoQ | 2Q F | -0.20% | -0.20% | -0.20% | — |
UK | 62) | GDP YoY | 2Q F | 1.20% | 1.30% | 1.20% | — |
UK | 63) | Total Business Investment QoQ | 2Q F | -0.50% | -0.40% | -0.50% | — |
UK | 64) | Total Business Investment YoY | 2Q F | -1.60% | -1.40% | -1.60% | — |
UK | 65) | Current Account Balance | 2Q | -19.0b | -25.2b | -30.0b | -33.1b |
UK | 66) | Net Consumer Credit | Aug | 0.9b | 0.9b | 0.9b | 1.0b |
UK | 67) | Consumer Credit YoY | Aug | — | 5.40% | 5.50% | 5.60% |
UK | 68) | Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings | Aug | 4.2b | 3.9b | 4.6b | 4.5b |
UK | 69) | Mortgage Approvals | Aug | 66.5k | 65.5k | 67.3k | 67.0k |
UK | 70) | Money Supply M4 MoM | Aug | — | 0.40% | 0.70% | — |
UK | 71) | M4 Money Supply YoY | Aug | — | 3.20% | 2.70% | — |
UK | 72) | M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised | Aug | — | 5.90% | 4.40% | — |
PO | 73) | CPI MoM | Sep P | — | 1.10% | -0.10% | — |
PO | 74) | CPI YoY | Sep P | — | -0.10% | -0.10% | — |
PO | 75) | CPI EU Harmonized MoM | Sep P | — | 1.40% | -0.10% | — |
PO | 76) | CPI EU Harmonized YoY | Sep P | — | -0.30% | -0.10% | — |
EC | 77) | Unemployment Rate | Aug | 7.50% | 7.40% | 7.50% | — |
IC | 78) | Trade Balance | Aug F | — | -12030m | -12200m | — |
GR | 79) | Retail Sales YoY | Jul | — | -2.70% | 2.30% | 2.50% |
IT | 80) | CPI NIC incl. tobacco MoM | Sep P | -0.30% | -0.50% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
IT | 81) | CPI NIC incl. tobacco YoY | Sep P | 0.60% | 0.40% | 0.50% | 0.40% |
IT | 82) | CPI EU Harmonized YoY | Sep P | 0.50% | 0.30% | 0.50% | — |
BE | 83) | Unemployment Rate | Aug | — | 5.50% | 5.70% | 5.50% |
IT | 84) | CPI EU Harmonized MoM | Sep P | 1.70% | 1.50% | 0.00% | — |
HK | 85) | Money Supply M1 HKD YoY | Aug | — | -4.40% | -3.00% | — |
HK | 86) | Money Supply M3 HKD YoY | Aug | — | 1.90% | 3.30% | — |
HK | 87) | Money Supply M2 HKD YoY | Aug | — | 1.80% | 3.30% | — |
PO | 88) | Industrial Production MoM | Aug | — | -1.00% | 3.50% | 4.60% |
PO | 89) | Industrial Production YoY | Aug | — | -4.80% | -3.50% | -2.40% |
PO | 90) | Retail Sales MoM | Aug | — | 1.10% | 0.00% | 0.60% |
PO | 91) | Retail Sales YoY | Aug | — | 5.10% | 4.70% | 5.10% |
IN | 92) | Eight Infrastructure Industries | Aug | — | -0.50% | 2.10% | 2.70% |
GE | 93) | CPI MoM | Sep P | 0.00% | — | -0.20% | — |
GE | 94) | CPI YoY | Sep P | 1.30% | — | 1.40% | — |
GE | 95) | CPI EU Harmonized MoM | Sep P | 0.00% | — | -0.10% | — |
GE | 96) | CPI EU Harmonized YoY | Sep P | 1.00% | — | 1.00% | — |