CAPIS Morning Note – 10/10/24: All Eyes On CPI At 8:30 A.M. EDT, Hurricane Milton Passes Into The Atlantic – Florida Avoids “The Big Hit”

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.71% at 5792.04 from Tuesday higher by 0.97% at 5751.13. The overnight high was hit at 5845.75 at 11:05 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5828.25 at 4:10 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 17 points. The current price is 5831.25 at 6:30 a.m….

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Wednesday higher by 0.71% at 5792.04 from Tuesday higher by 0.97% at 5751.13. The overnight high was hit at 5845.75 at 11:05 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5828.25 at 4:10 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 17 points. The current price is 5831.25 at 6:30 a.m. EDT lower by -10 points.

Executive Summary: Hurricane Milton made landfall last night as a Category 3 Hurricane and then as it moved across the state down to a Category 1 before moving out into the Atlantic. Clearly, lots of flooding and wind damage but the state clearly dodged a bullet. Can markets dodge a bullet this morning as we get the latest CPI data that is expected to come in up 0.1%.

Article of Note: “Milton Shows Florida Needs Unpopular Insurance Reform” by Jonathan Levin (Bloomberg Opinion)

Key Events of Note Today:

  • 30-Year Treasury Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Monthly CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m, EDT.
  • Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close 

  • Beats: APLD +0.12, AZZ +0.05, ETWO +0.03 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
Capital Raises:
  • IPOs For The Week:
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
  • Notes Priced:
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • STOK files mixed shelf securities offering 
    • BNS files $50 bln mixed shelf securities offering 
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

  • Movers Up: None of note.
  • Movers Down: TXG -27.8%, ETWO -18.1%, APAM -4.2%, APLD -2%, AZZ -2%

News After The Close:

    • Alliance Bernstein (AB) announces that preliminary assets under management increased to $806 billion during September 2024 from $791 billion at the end of August
    • Robinhood Markets (HOOD) reaches $10 bln in Assets Under Custody across its nearly one million funded retirement accounts
    • 10x Genomics (TXG) guides Q3 revs below consensus 
    • Invesco (IVZ) reports preliminary month-end assets under management of $1,795.6 billion, an increase of 2.5% versus previous month-end
    • Costco (COST) reports September adjusted comparable sales of +8.9%
    • Boeing (BA) offered minor movements before breaking off contract talks with union. (Reuters)
    • M-tron Industries (MPTI) believes it will meet or exceed its FY24 revenue guidance
    • 10Q Delays: None of note.
    • NASDAQ Delisting Notice:  None of note.

Buybacks or Repurchases: 

  •  

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • Oil-Dri (ODC) approves a two-for-one stock split in the form of a stock dividend 
  • EIG names Michael Pedraja as CFO, effective February 3, 2025 
  • MPTI names appointment of Cameron Pforr as Chief Financial Officer, effective October 3, 2024
  • FIBK appoints James Reuter as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective November 1 

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: ORCL ACN VZ INTU T GIS DAL UDR LNC KAI BRC
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: GD MRVL AFIPA IEX TOL WPP BKRIY SNX KGFHY SAIC HMY OZK KOF AEO BKU VTMX AAP BKE GNL UVV PMT

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 -1 NASDAQ 100 -29 Dow Jones -9 Russell 2000 + (at 8:10 a.m. EDT). Asia is higher while Europe is lower ex Germany. VIX Futures are at 19,10 from 19.65 yesterday while Bonds are at 4.082% from 4.037% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is flat versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $61,001 from $62,059 higher by +17 at 0.03% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Technology, Healthcare and Industrials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Utilities and Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Materials, Communication Services and Technology of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Financials, Industrials,  and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Utilities,  Real Estate, mmmTechnology, Consumer Defensive and Financials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Utilities, Financials, Communication Services, Industrials and Real Estate note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Utilities,  Communication Services, Financials, Industrials and Consumer Defensive of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close:  
  • Friday Before The Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  DPZ +0.54 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: DAL -0.02 of note.
  • Still to Report: None.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line saw slight improvement yesterday and maybe a double bottom.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: AVNT +5%, MGTX +3.4%, GEL +2.1%, FSM +2%.
  • Gap Down: TXG -24.2%, ETWO -23.5%, DAL -6.2%, APAM -4.2%, DPZ -2.7%, VCTR -2%.

Insider Action: None of note see Insider buying with dumb short selling.  None of note see Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
  • What You Need to Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Pre-Market Movers: Check back for update.  (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Hurricane Milton Hits Power Supply, Shuts Air Traffic. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: US Futures Edge Lower Ahead of Key Inflation Data. (Bloomberg)
  • Delta (DAL) falls on sales guidance. (CNBC)
  • Rafael Nadal is retiring after Davis Cup play. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Odd Lots: Ultra Rich build a separate world here on earth. (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Investing in the era of AI. (Podcast)
  • NY Times Daily: 25 days until the election. (Podcast)
  • Marketplace: Looks at META Threads. (Podcast)

Economic:

  • September CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.1% from 0.2%. 
  • Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
  • September Treasury Budget is due out at 3:00 p.m. EDT and last month came in at $-380.10 billion. 

Geopolitical:

  • President Biden receives the President’s Daily Brief at 9:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Press Briefing at 1:30 p.m. EDT with Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre.

Federal Reserve Speakers: 

  • Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will speak at 9:15 a.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin will speak at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve New York President John Williams will speak at 11:00 a.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Move to 93% positive from 77%.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • BTG – Latam CEO Conference
      • Houlihan Lokey Global Business Services
      • Jefferies Private Advanced Industrials Conference
      • TD Cowen Therapeutics Conference
      • Wedbush Securities AdTech Conference
    • Fireside Chat: None of note.
    • Top Shareholder Meetings: CHUY, LITB, RDWR
    • Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: AMD, GRFS, GWRE, HPE, STRO, TSLA, VALN
    • Update: None of note.
    • R&D Day: None of note.
    • FDA Presentation:
    • Company Event: None of note.
    • Industry Meetings or Events:
      • Global Gaming Expo
      • RSI EXPO & Conference
      • Tesla Robotaxi Event

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades:  TROX NKE LXU EVGO BMRC AKR  

Downgrades: SWKS