CAPIS September 2024 Research Briefing – Market Volatility and Trends from a Technical Analysis Perspective with Katie Stockton, Fairlead Strategies

If you would like to watch the episode, please reach out to your CAPIS sales representative or to [email protected].   1:20 – Market Volatility and Reaction to FOMC Decision: Katie Stockton begins by discussing the market’s reaction to the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement. She emphasizes the importance of confirming breakouts amidst volatility….

If you would like to watch the episode, please reach out to your CAPIS sales representative or to [email protected].

 

1:20 – Market Volatility and Reaction to FOMC Decision: Katie Stockton begins by discussing the market’s reaction to the recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement. She emphasizes the importance of confirming breakouts amidst volatility. She also highlights how September and October tend to be particularly challenging months in equity markets.

3:50 – S&P 500 and Technical Indicators: A detailed review of the S&P 500 is provided, with Katie analyzing the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicators and momentum trends. Katie highlights the weakening uptrend in Q3 and examines DeMARK Indicators®, which suggest trend exhaustion in equities, especially within the tech sector.

9:25 – Large-Cap and Small-Cap Stocks Analysis: Katie examines the performance of select mega-cap stocks, noting that the loss of leadership in the tech sector indicates a more range-bound market environment. She contrasts this with the relative strength seen in small-cap stocks, although she cautions against over-optimism.

10:45 – Sector Rotation and Defensive Positioning: Katie focuses on sector performance, with technology losing ground to more defensive sectors like utilities, real estate and healthcare. Katie highlights the shift in investor sentiment towards “safer” sectors.

17:40 – Crude Oil, Natural Gas and Precious Metals Market Outlook: Katie shifts to energy markets, discussing the downward trend in crude oil prices and the outlook for natural gas, which shows signs of a positive longer-term reversal. Gold’s breakout is analyzed alongside silver, with Katie predicting further strength in precious metals.

21:20 – Dollar Analysis and Treasury Yield Trends: Katie examines the weakening dollar and its implications for commodities and international markets. She reviews long-term Treasury yield trends, discussing the 2020 break in the secular downtrend and the anticipated upward trend cycle.

27:40 – Stock Picks and Market Timing: Katie provides insights on specific mega-cap stocks, discussing technical sell signals and the implications for short-term trading.

30:15: Crypto and Marker Sentiment Indicators: Katie reviews the performance of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) stocks. She shares that crypto performance, the VIX and market sentiment indicators like the CNN Fear & Greed index provide day-to-day insight on investor sentiment.

37:20 – Conclusion and Q&A: A brief Q&A session is provided, where Katie elaborates on her market outlook and the potential for a stock-picker’s market in the coming year. Katie discusses the potential for small caps to perform better in a lower-rate environment and emphasizes the need for patience in chasing small-cap rallies.