CAPIS Morning Note – 03/17/22: Stocks Lower, Dollar Falls On Fed Announcement. Russia Says Talks Not Progressing.

Overnight Summary:  The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 4357.85 from 4262.45 on Tuesday.  The S&P 500 was higher for the second day in a row.  The overnight high was hit at 4367.50 early on at 4:45 p.m. EDT. The low came at 4320 at 8:10 a.m. EDT. The current level is 4336 down 13.50 points…

Overnight Summary:  The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 4357.85 from 4262.45 on Tuesday.  The S&P 500 was higher for the second day in a row.  The overnight high was hit at 4367.50 early on at 4:45 p.m. EDT. The low came at 4320 at 8:10 a.m. EDT. The current level is 4336 down 13.50 points which is  -0.31% at 7:10 a.m. EDT. 

Breaking News: Bank of England hikes rates for third time in a row as Ukraine war adds to inflation concerns. (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: WSM +0.60, LEN +0.12, BRLT +0.06, PD +0.02, SMTC +0.01.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: GES (0.01).

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched/News:
    • DNEG and Sports Ventures Acquisition Corp. (AKIC) Announce Initial Filing of Preliminary Proxy Statement in Connection with Proposed Business Combination.
    • Metals Acquisition Corp. (MTAL) to acquire the CSA Copper Mine from Glencore (GLNCY).
    • Spartan Acquisition Corp. III (SPAQ) and Allego Holding B.V. complete business combination. Allego to begin trading on the NYSE today.
  • Secondaries Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Priced of note: None of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes:
    • BFLY: Filed Form 424B3.. Up to 110,352,371 Shares of Class A Common Stock.
    • SolarEdge Technologies, Inc. (SEDG) Announces Proposed Public Offering of 2,000,000 shares of its Common Stock.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering:
    • PolarityTE (PTE) Announces Closing of $5.0 Million Registered Direct Offering.
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • Dream Finders Homes (DFH) files for 6,426,770 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
    • Troika Media Group (TRKA) Announces Pricing of $50 Million Private Placement.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • ASPN: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
    • NMRD: Filed Form S-3.. $224,634,031 Mixed Shelf.
    • PRPL: $100Million Mixed Shelf.
    • SFT: Filed Form S-3.. $300 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: PD +12%, WSM +6%, EDR +5%, SMTC +4%.
    • Trading Down: ASPN -7%, CLB -5%, HLX -4%.
  • News After The Close:
    • Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Q4 profit beats expectations, retailer raises dividend by 10% (MarketWatch)
    • Lennar (LEN) stock rises more than 2% after Q1 profit tops views. (MarketWatch)
    • Ashland (ASH) increases prices by up to 15% due to inflation-related costs.
    • Perma-Pipe International Holdings (PPIH) Announces Further Contract Awards of $15 Million in Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
    • Several banks, including WFC, NTRS, HSBC, PNC, USB, increased their Prime Rate to 3.50%
    • Russian/Ukraine News:
      • Russian ship carrying 8,000 tons of petroleum product turned away from U.S. port.
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
    • EQONEX (EQOS) Appoints New CEO as part of its Strategic Partnership with Bifinity.
    • ECMOHO (MOHO) Receives Approval to Transfer to Nasdaq Capital Market.
    • Guardforce AI (GFAI) Receives NASDAQ Notification Letter Regarding Minimum Bid Price Deficiency.
    • Golden Matrix (GMGI) Announces Uplisting to The Nasdaq Stock Market.
    • Guess?, Inc. (GES) Announces CFO Transition.
    • InMed (INM) Announces Management Changes.
    • Retail Value Inc. (RVI) Announces Sale Contract and Plan to De-list from the NYSE.
    • WKHS CEO Buys 50,000 shares in open market.
    • WD-40 Company (WDFC) Announces Garry Ridge, CEO, to retire August 31.  Steve Brass, COO, will take over. (MarketWatch)
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • BOX: Announces New Share Repurchase Authorization of up to $150 Million.
    • CRH Continues Share Buyback Program.
    • GIII: Board Authorizes Increased Share Repurchase Program of Up to 10 Million Shares.
    • Guess? (GES) expands buyback authorization by $100 million and intends to enter into a $175 million accelerated share repurchase.
    • Lennar (LEN) Received Board Approval for New $2 Billion Stock Repurchase Authorization.
    • Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) announces a new $1.5 billion stock repurchase authorization.
    • YJ  US$20 Million Share Repurchase Program.
    • Yum China (YUMC) Expands Share Repurchase Authorization by $1 Billion. (MarketWatch)
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements: 
    • Nordstrom (JWN) Announces the Resumption of Quarterly Dividend AT $0.19 per share. (MarketWatch)
    • Orchid Island Capital (ORC) announced March 2022 monthly dividend increase of $0.010 to $0.045 per share of common stock.
    • Williams-Sonoma, Inc. (WSM) announces a 10% quarterly dividend increase.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -13 , Dow Jones -101 , NASDAQ -58 , and Russell 2000 -6 .  Asia higher and Europe higher ex Germany. VIX Futures are at 27.45 from 29.30  yesterday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at 2.131% from 2.163% yesterday.  Bitcoin is at $40,795 from $40,459.15  yesterday at +0.27%. As of 8:07 a.m. EDT

Monday’s Action – 03/16/22 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Financial, Industrials, Healthcare, Basic Materials, Real Estate of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: None of note.
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Basic Materials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy and Basic Materials of note.

Stocks ended at highs, but it is how it got there.  Big swings during the day as the Federal Reserve cuts and then verbally coddles the markets.  Updated 03/16/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: FDX, GME, PAGS, STNE, GSKY, NUVB, CURV, JOAN of note.
  • Friday Before the Open: ONON of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: GIII +0.33, LAC +0.29, ACN +0.16, SCWX 0.11, CMC +0.10, CSIQ +0.04, WRBY +0.01.
  • Flat: DG, SIG.
  • Misses: DBI (0.01).
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: BRLT, SMTC, STLD, EDR, DBI, SIG, ACN, GIII.
  • Negative Guidance: CLB, WRBY, SCWX.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 03/16/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: PD +13%, WSM +7%, NETI +7%, EDR +7%, BAK +7%, SMTC +5%.
  • Gap Down: ASPN -8%, ORC -7%, BIOX -6%, ZTO -5%, CLB -4%.

Insider Action: SPRO, OXY sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  WKHS, VERX sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 03/16/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: DG ACN SIG WRBY PD  (CNBC)
  • Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
  • Russia denies major progress in talks with Ukraine. (Bloomberg)
  • Russia in theory has ordered a bond payment to avoid default. (CNBC)
  • Russia bombed a bomb shelter that had a thousand people in it. Outcome still being reviewed. (NYT)
  • China allowing factories to reopen despite Covid cases on the rise. (Bloomberg)
  • U.S. sending dive bombing switchblade drones to Ukraine. (Bloomberg)
  • Senate Banking Committee advances nominations of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, Vice Chairman Lael Brainard and several others.
  • China will use Pfizer (PFE) antiviral Covid pill to fight the virus. (NYT)
  • Toyota (TM) will lower production by 17% due to chip shortage. (Reuters)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at Vail Resorts (MTN) and their move to build living spaces for employees. Reviews the +/- on eliminating daylight-savings.

Moving Average Update:

  • Score jumps to 63% from 23%.  Green for St. Patrick’s Day?  Heard that before.  Updated 03/16/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President participates in a bilateral meeting with His Excellency Micheál Martin, Taoiseach of Ireland, 10:30 a.m. EDT
    • The President and H.E. Micheál Martin, Taoiseach of Ireland deliver remarks at the Annual Friends of Ireland Luncheon hosted by Speaker Nancy Pelosi, 12:00 p.m. EDT
      Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 2:00 p.m. EDT
    • The President and The First Lady host H.E. Micheál Martin, Taoiseach of Ireland, and Mrs. Mary Martin for a Shamrock presentation at the White House, 5:00 p.m. EDT

Economic: 

  • February Housing Starts is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 1,700,000 from 1,638,000.
  • March Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 14 from 16.
  • Initial Jobless Claims 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • Housing Starts and Permits 8:30 a.m. EDT
  • February Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.5% from 1.4%.
  • EIA Natural Gas Report 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • None of note.

M&A Activity:

  • AllianceBernstein (AB) to Acquire Global Private Alternatives Manager CarVal Investors. (MarketWatch)
  • Bioceres Crop Solutions and Marrone Bio (MBII) Announce Merger Agreement.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Bank of America Securities Information Services Conference 2022
    • Canaccord Genuity Blockchain Infrastructure & Mining Summit (Virtual) 2022
    • Citigroup Retail Madness
      • Previously Announced  Conferences:
        • Danske Bank Small & Mid Cap Seminar
        • Desjardins Industrials, TMT, Diversified and Consumer Conference 2022 (03/16/22-03/17/22)
        • Guggenheim Healthcare Talks 2022 (03/16/22-04/01/22)
        • Truist Securities Texas Bank Summit
        • Bank of America Global Securities Industrials Conference 2022 (03/15/22-03/17/22)
        • Barclays Global Healthcare Conference 2022 (03/15/22-03/17/22)
        • JP Morgan Industrials Conference 2022 (03/15/22-03/17/22)
        • JP Morgan Pan-European Small/Mid Cap CEO Conference 2022 (03/15/22-03/17/22)
        • Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference 2022 (03/15/22-03/17/22)
        • Bank of America Asia Pacific APAC Telecom, Media & Technology TMT Conference 2022 (03/14/22-03/26/22)
        • Berenberg EU Opportunities Conference 2022 (03/14/22-03/17/22)
        • HIMMS Global Health Conference 2022 (03/14/22-03/18/22)
        • Oppenheimer 32nd Annual Healthcare Conference 2022 (03/14/22-03/17/22)
  • Company Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ALL, BC, BIOX/MBII, ICLR.
  • Update: NOK, KPTI, WULF.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: Adobe (ADBE) Summit.
  • Industry Meetings:
    • None of note.
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • Life Science Intelligence LSI Emerging Medtech Summit 2022 (03/15/22-03/18/22)
        • American Society for Clinical Pharmacology & Therapeutics (ASCPT) 2022 (03/15/22-03/18/22)
        • Advanced Bioeconomy Leadership Conference (ABLC) 2022 (03/15/22-03/18/22)
        • Call and Contact Center Expo (03/15/22-03/17/22)
        • Alzheimer & Parkinson’s Diseases Conference 2022 (03/15/22-03/20/22)
        • Western Regional Boiler Association Conference 2021 (03/15/22-03/17/22)
        • MITT 2022: Moscow International Travel and Tourism Exhibition (03/15/22-03/17/22)
        • 2022 South by Southwest (SXSW) Conference & Festivals. (03/11/22-03/20/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

      

Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades: