In the September 2025 edition of CAPIS’ Monthly Research Briefing, Ed O’Dowd was joined by Andi Kerenxhi, founder of Ubineer, to examine how AI is shaping the investment landscape through the lens of fundamentals. Andi shared data-driven insights into mega-cap tech names like Netflix, Meta, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and NVIDIA, highlighting CapEx signals, demand drivers and why he believes we’re still in the earliest innings of a potential AI investment cycle.
00:00 – Introduction
Ed welcomes Andi Kerenxhi, a Toronto-based investor focused on helping PMs validate investment hypotheses using AI tools trained on company fundamentals. Ubineer uses proprietary data ingestion and conformal prediction models to assess the likelihood of earnings outcomes, CapEx trends, and KPI shifts.
03:02 – AI’s Role in Investment Decision-Making
Andi explains that Ubineer doesn’t provide investment recommendations, but rather surfaces probabilities and insights from public filings, KPI projections and spending patterns. Their tools are designed to supplement traditional fundamental research, not replace it.
Netflix
07:00 – Netflix’s Capital Allocation
Andi starts with Netflix, noting the company’s recent spike in unrecorded streaming obligations—now the fifth highest on record—indicating aggressive content investment. About 35–40% of spend goes to in-house production versus licensing, and any change here would be the earliest sign of a strategic shift.
9:45 – Revenue Growth Drivers
Netflix’s Q3 guidance calls for 17.3% revenue growth, but Andi expects at least 17.4%, which could trigger a market reaction. He also highlights the growing role of U.S. users in driving incremental revenue, especially since Netflix’s price hikes earlier this year. Andi points to emerging Q4 seasonality tied to live events, such as the Paul vs. Tyson fight and NFL games, which could support a stronger-than-expected Q4 performance. He encourages investors to track Netflix’s content mix and capital distribution closely.
Meta
12:43 – Meta’s Historic Ad Revenue Spike in Q2
Meta added $8.2B in Q2 ad revenue, outpacing even its typical Q4 holiday surge. Andi suggests this could be a function of increased ad load on user feeds and broader monetization strategies.
14:13 – CapEx Spend
CapEx is rising rapidly, with growth visible across Meta’s buildings, data centers and server purchases. Construction-in-progress and server deployments are accelerating. “All other obligations” now top $80B—up from $20B in Q1 2024—suggesting multi-year infrastructure buildout.
16:50 – Meta Hardware
Andi discusses Meta’s new wearable devices as a potential iPhone moment. Priced at $799, these glasses could create an entirely new product category. Q1–Q2 2026 will be crucial in validating whether this is a transformational shift or just another moonshot.
18:42 – Search and YouTube Ad Trends
Despite fears that AI might erode Google’s core business, ad revenue from search and YouTube is still climbing. Google Network revenue is shrinking, but the ad engine shows resilience—especially as YouTube expands its GenAI roadmap.
21:37 – Cloud Business Acceleration
Google Cloud (GCP + Workspace) is experiencing a breakout quarter, with RPO (remaining performance obligations) growing ~40% YoY. Price hikes to Workspace users helped, but growth is largely organic—suggesting strong enterprise demand for GCP.
23:00 – Data Center Leasing
“Leases not yet commenced” spiked from <$1B to $24B in just two quarters. This level of forward-committed infrastructure spend reinforces Andi’s view that the AI cycle is still in its early phase.
Microsoft
24:55 – Cloud and Productivity Suite Momentum
Microsoft’s Azure and Microsoft 365 Commercial businesses are both contributing to a $4.25B revenue spike, with 365 upsells driven by GenAI integration. The current growth rate has jumped to ~28% YoY.
37:50 – RPO Acceleration
RPO growth in 2025 (fiscal year-end June 30) hit new highs, with clients signing large, multi-year contracts at a faster pace than ever. Andi sees this as further evidence of durable enterprise demand—not just hype.
Amazon
28:56 – E-Commerce Still the Core Driver
Amazon’s world e-commerce business (excluding Whole Foods and physical stores) hit nearly
$140B last quarter, with U.S. and international segments both accelerating. Andi references Fed data on retail e-commerce trends as confirmation.
31:20 – AWS
While AWS is larger than Azure or GCP, its RPO growth is slower due to scale. Andi expects a near-term revenue spike to close the gap between reported sales and future commitments.
32:50 – The AI “Bubble”
Andi argues that true bubbles are fueled by debt, and today’s AI CapEx is largely funded by free cash flow. Most spending is still “first breath in the balloon,” not late-cycle mania.
Audience Q&A
35:07 – Audience Q&A
Andi takes questions from the audience regarding AI trends:
- He highlights emerging players like CoreWeave to show that hyperscalers may not have lasting moats in GenAI training workloads. OpenAI’s willingness to shift from Azure to Oracle is proof that compute can be commoditized if price is right.
- He adds that NVIDIA doesn’t manufacture its own chips (TSMC does), but it excels at integrating chips, servers and racks into ready-to-deploy data center stacks. This capability is smoothing out the CapEx curve for cloud buyers, extending the demand cycle.
- He reiterates that until debt becomes widespread and unsustainable, we’re not in a bubble. Valuations may run hot, but the underlying spending is healthy and rational—for now.
44:49 – Wrapping Up
Ed thanks Andi for the unique insights and reminds attendees to join next month’s Market Research Briefing on Thursday, October 23, featuring returning guest Markets Policy Partners for a deep dive into policy, the Fed and macro forces.