Featuring Katie Stockton, Founder & Managing Partner, Fairlead Strategies
In the November 2025 edition of CAPIS’ Monthly Research Briefing, Ed O’Dowd welcomes back Katie Stockton of Fairlead Strategies for a wide-ranging discussion on the technical backdrop heading into year-end.
Katie walks through long-term equity trends, momentum indicators, breadth, sector rotation, macro gauges and opportunities across global asset classes. The conversation blends cyclical and secular analysis to help investors position into Q4’s more volatile environment.
U.S. Equities Technical Breakdown & Year-End Outlook
0:00 – Introduction
Ed O’Dowd introduces Katie Stockton and sets the stage for the final briefing of 2025 – a discussion focused on technical market conditions amid ongoing macro uncertainty. He invites Katie to walk through the latest technical conditions following several months of market “noise” and a recent SPX pullback. Katie emphasizes the value of checking in on monthly charts to cut through short-term volatility.
1:50 – S&P 500 (SPX) Analysis
Katie begins with the monthly SPX chart. The long-term uptrend remains intact, supported by positive long-term momentum, new all-time highs and no over-bought downturn. A DeMark 13 counter-trend exhaustion signal has appeared, suggesting the market is “overdone” and likely to enter a choppier environment in 2026, though not necessarily a down year. Katie suggests maintaining a bullish long-term bias, but market-timing conditions are less favorable for deploying new capital.
3:25 – Nasdaq 100 (NDX)
The tech and megacap-heavy index has triggered intermediate-term stochastic and MACD sell signals, marking a turn to the downside in the last 2-3 weeks. Katie believes the market is in a B-wave of an ABC corrective pattern. In the short term a bounce is underway, aided by seasonal influence, but she expects this rally to provide a window to reduce exposure in high-beta areas of the market.
9:53 – Small Caps
Small-cap proxy IWM remains range-bound long-term and is currently forming a large cup-and-handle formation. A decisive breakout above long-term resistance would mark a major bullish long-term inflection. For now, breadth deterioration and ongoing correction are weighing on the group. Market breadth indicators (advance/decline cumulative lines) show downside momentum and room to contract further. Katie is watching for a higher low in breadth to signal the next buyable inflection.
12:00 – VIX
The VIX appears to have shifted into a higher-volatility cycle, exiting the low-vol regime in place since May. Support for VIX now likely sits in the high teens. Expect a choppier, more volatile Q4-Q1 tape.
Market Sentiment Gauges & Sector Analysis
13:30 – Fear & Greed Index
The 10-day moving average of the index suggests sentiment is nearing extremes. Extreme fear has historically equaled opportunity, but Katie stresses it’s too early – we want to see both the dip to oversold territory and the subsequent upturn before signaling a durable reversal.
15:00 – Large Cap Growth vs Value
After a prolonged trend favoring growth, the growth versus value ratio is now pulling back, signaling a short-term shift toward value. Growth stocks look overextended, while value names show intriguing setups.
17:00 – International vs U.S.
International equities saw meaningful relative improvement early in the year versus the U.S. Katie views the rotation as more balanced than breakthrough – not a new downtrend, but not a durable outperformance trend either. Fewer tech-heavy weightings abroad may explain relative resilience.
18:45 – Sector Rotation & Leadership
Katy highlights renewed sector leadership in communication services, tech and consumer discretionary — all previously exhibiting relative strength throughout the year driven by megacap leadership and AI enthusiasm. Utilities, healthcare and energy now appear up-and-to-the-right. She expects more defensive rotation into year-end. Counter-trend setups have been working recently, and value-oriented sectors offer tactical opportunity.
26:00 – Crude Oil & Gold
Crude oil (WTI) prices have stabilized within a long-term downtrend. A break above the 50-day and into the mid-$60s would support a meaningful counter-trend rally. Katie reminds listeners how energy equities can outperform even when the broader market weakens, as seen in 2022.
Gold remains in a steep long-term uptrend with orderly consolidations. Currently support sits near $3,927, and Katie expects the trend to continue.
28:30 – Dollar Index (DXY)
The dollar is cyclically weak but secularly strong, holding long-term trendline support. Oversold momentum is turning up, implying a potential long-term low – but upside may be capped by overhead resistance.
29:30 – Treasury Yields
The 10-year Treasury yield appears to be in a sideways-to-lower range, with long-term indicators pointing slightly down. A move toward 3.7% would retest long-term support but not break the broader structural shift higher.
31:00 – Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s secular uptrend remains intact, but its cyclical uptrend that began in 2022 may be at risk. The coin is testing cloud support around ~93k. A confirmed breakdown would target 78-81k and potentially trigger monthly MACD sell confirmation. If support holds, rebounds could be “explosive,” given the distance to overhead resistance.
34:45 – Q&A: Sector Dynamics & Tech Concentration
Katie acknowledges that tech represents ~35% of the S&P 500 and has absorbed significant investor flows. Despite rotation risks, tech remains “one of the most interesting places” for retail and institutional investors due to AI and high-growth themes. Looking at sector opportunities outside of tech, Katie highlights agricultural commodities, natural gas and retail ETFs. Katie stresses balancing tech exposure with risk management to mitigate concentrated-portfolio drawdowns.
45:05 – Conclusion
Ed O’Dowd closes the session, announcing January 15, 2026 as the next Market Research Briefing featuring Markets Policy Partners for a macro-political policy and Fed-focused session.