CAPIS Morning Note – 9/25/24: Quiet Week Continues With Low Volatility

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by +0.25% at 5732.93 from Monday higher by 0.28% at 5718.57. The overnight high was hit at 5794.50 at 7:10 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5773.50 at 2:15 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 19 points. The current price is 5788.25 at 6:45 a.m. EDT…

Overnight SummaryThe S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by +0.25% at 5732.93 from Monday higher by 0.28% at 5718.57. The overnight high was hit at 5794.50 at 7:10 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5773.50 at 2:15 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 19 points. The current price is 5788.25 at 6:45 a.m. EDT lower by -3.75 points.

Most Important Article Of the Morning: Microsoft’s Three Mile Island Deal Isn’t a Nuclear Revival – Yet. (Bloomberg)

Executive Summary: President Biden continues his time in NYC and at the U.N. this morning. New Home Sales are out at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Short Interest rose 2.40% on NYSE and fell -0.35% on NASDAQ. Charts to follow tomorrow.

  • 5-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Earnings Out After The Close

  • Beats:   PRGS +0.12 of note.
  • Flat: 
  • Misses:  WOR -0.21, SFIX -0.09 and KBH -0.02 of note.
Capital Raises:
  • IPOs For The Week: BIOA, BKV, FBGL, GRDN, LGCY, NAMI, SAG, SUNH,
    WCT, ZENA, ZJK
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • WVE commences $175 mln stock offering
    • RITM announces public offering of 30 mln shares of common stock
    • BKSY Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock
    • IDAI: Form S-3.. Up to 12,411,858 Shares of Class A Common Stock Issuable Upon The Exercise of Warrants
    • RETO: Form F-3.. 15,363,768 Class A Shares
    • RITM Public Offering of Common Stock – 30,000,000 shares
    • SEEL: Form S-1.. Common Stock
    • SHOT: Form S-3.. 1,898,029 Shares of Common Stock
    • WVE Public Offering of Ordinary Shares and Pre-Funded Warrants – $175 million in aggregate of its ordinary shares
  • Notes Priced:
    • MATV Pricing of Its $400 Million Offering of Senior Notes
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
  • Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down Yesterday:

  • Movers Up: LWLG+5.6%,PRGS +5.3%, AGYS +3.8%
  • Movers Down: SFIX -19.4%, KBH -5.9%, POWW -5.3%, WVE -3.9%, WOR -3.6%, RITM -2.7%,  MOV -2.7%

News After The Close :

    • Amgen (AMGN) receives approval for Tepezza receives approval in Japan for the treatment of active thyroid eye disease
    • FULC to reduce workforce by 36% as part of a plan to reprioritize research and development activities
    • CACI has been awarded a five-year task order valued at up to $314 mln to provide engineering services and technology to the U.S. Navy Naval Undersea Warfare Center
    • CVLT to acquire Clumio; to be immediately accretive to ARR and revenue; reiterates Q2 guidance
    • Uber (UBER) and DoorDash (DASH) mostly unchanged after federal judge declares NYC law requiring food delivery companies to share data with restaurants unconstitutional. (Reuters)
    • SAG-AFTRA calls a strike against Ten Cent (TCEHY) League of Legends video game. (Release)
    • HII awarded $5.80 bln U.S. Navy contract for construction of three amphibious transport dock ships. They were also awarded $3.67 bln U.S. Navy contract modification.
    • GD awarded $191 mln U.S. Defense Logistics Agency contract
    • Amentum Holdings (AMTM) will be added to the S&P 500 effective Monday, September 30, replacing Bath & Body Works (BBWI), which will be moved to the S&P SmallCap 600 Tuesday, October 1. Bath & Body Works will replace Movado Group (MOV) in the S&P SmallCap 600 also effective prior to the open of trading on October 1.
    • 10-Q or 10-K Delays – None of note.
    • NASDAQ Delisting Notice – None of note.

Buybacks or Repurchases: Buybacks should be slow as most companies are in a blackout period as earnings season kicks into gear.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

    • ASAN appointed Sonalee Parekh as CFO, effective September 11; succeeds Tim Wan 
    • PRI appoints Robert H. Peterman Jr. to the role of Executive Vice President and COO, effective October 1
    • MSM promotes Martina McIsaac to President and COO, effective Sept 23
    • NSC names Jason A. Zampi as Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer, effective immediately
    • HBB CEO Gregory H. Trepp to retire, effective September 30; R. Scott Tidey named successor

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: JCI AHH BFC MERC
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: GE PM SRE INVH PSEC GTY NAT

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures S&P 500 -2  NASDAQ 100 -29 Dow Jones +1 Russell 2000 +15. Asia is lower ex China with Europe is lower ex the FTSE this morning. VIX Futures are at 17.62 from 17.52 yesterday while Bonds are at 3.762% from 3.798% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold is higher with Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, higher versus the Pound and higher against the YenBitcoin is at $63,602 from $63,587 lower by -0.62% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Materials, Consumer Cyclical, Technology and Communication Services of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Financials, Utilities and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Financials, Consumer Cyclicals and Industrials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Real Estate, Utilities, Financials, Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Industrials of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Utilities,  Real Estate, Technology, Financials, Consumer Defensive and  Communication Services of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Financials, Communication Services, Industrials, Utilities and Real Estate note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Utilities, Financials, Communication Services, Consumer Defensive and Healthcare of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close: 

  • Thursday Before The Open: 

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:   +0.40 of note.
  • Flat:
  • Misses:  -5.57 of note.
  • Still to Report: 

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Weekly Update With Both Daily and Weekly Stats:  Markets have improved nicely in the last week. The Daily A/D Line has made a new high while the S&P 500 just made a new high Thursday and is now coming off that high.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market (+2% or down more than -2%):

  • Gap Up: PRGS +7.3%, LWLG +5.6%, FMAO +3.3%, AHR +2.8%, DASH +2.5%
  • Gap Down: SFIX -25.3%, TSVT -15.9%, HUMA -7.7%, KBH -6.4%, WVE -5.7%, WOR -3.2%, MOV -3%, RITM -2.7%, POWW -2%

Insider Action: CRBP TSQ see Insider buying with dumb short selling. CAPR sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • Pre-Market Movers:  KBH HPE GM of note. Check back. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Traders View November Rate Cut As A Toss-Up. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: Asian Stocks, Currencies Rise on China Optimism. (Bloomberg)
  • Google (GOOGL) files EU Antitrust Complaint accusing Microsoft (MSFT) of stifling cloud competition. (CNBC)
  • Harris to unveil new economic and manufacturing plans in a speech today in Pennsylvania. (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take – Is the US Dollar’s dominance in danger? (Podcast)
  • Wealthion: Is the Fed Trapped? (Podcast)
  • Marketplace: Inside the data center capital of the world. (Podcast)
  • NYT Daily: The slide towards war in Lebanon. (Podcast)

Economic:

  • August New Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 695,000 from 739,000.
  • Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications rose +11% and refinancings up +20.3%.

Geopolitical:

  • President Biden receives the Daily Briefing at 10:00 a.m. EDT.
  • President Biden joins “The View” at 11:15 a.m. EDT for a live interview.
  • President Biden meets with United Nations General Secretary To Lam of Vietnam at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Later in the day, President Biden hosts an event with world leaders launching a Joint Declaration of Support for Ukranian Recovery and Reconstruction at 3:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Last President Biden hosts a reception at the Metropolitan Museum of Art at 6:15 p.m. EDT and then arrives back at the White House at 10:25 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers: 

  • Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler speaks at 4:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Averages On Major Equity Indexes: Remain at 97% of the moving averages being positive. Going forward, each Wednesday we show various asset class ETFs as well.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

    • Sellside Conferences:
      • Bank of America World Medical Innovation
      • Deutsche Bank Depositary Receipts Virtual Investor Conference
      • Evercore ISI ADAS AV & AI Forum
      • Gordon Haskett Warehouse Club Tour
      • Noble Capital Basic Industries Equity Conference
      • RBC Capital Markets Global Communications Infrastructure Conference
      • ROTH Non-Deal Roadshow
      • Verint Engage Customer Engagement Conference
    • Fireside Chat: None of note.
    • Top Shareholder Meetings: DRRX, HBIO, KFY, XTNT
    • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ARWR, FLUT, MRK
    • Update: None of note.
    • R&D Day: None of note.
    • FDA Presentation:
    • Company Event:
    • Industry Meetings or Events:
      • Access Alpha Buyside Best Ideas Virtual Fall
      • Blackbaud’s bbcon Tech Conference
      • Congress for the European Academy of Dermatology & Venereology
      • Emerging Growth Conference
      • European Academy of Dermatology and Venereology Congress
      • European Conference on Optical Comm
      • International Conference on Ion Implantation Technology
      • International Gynecologic Cancer Conference
      • International Ultrasonics Symposium
      • Nasdaq Annual Climate Week Conference
      • National Association of Nurse Practitioners in Women’s Health (NPWH)
      • NIC Fall Conference
      • Verint Engage Customer Engagement Conf
      • Women’s Health Innovation Summit USA
      • ZONE Conferences

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades:  LNW

Downgrades: TSN NOV GM EC