Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading:
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The S&P 500 finished Monday higher by 0.47% at 6615.28 from Friday lower by -0.05% at 6584.29.
- 20-Year Treasury Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
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S&P 500 hits its 23rd All-Time High of 2025 yesterday!
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Futures are higher this morning by +13.25 (+0.20%) at 6692.50 on the S&P 500 around 6:30 a.m. EDT.
- Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 12.47% from 11.95% from Friday’s close.
Executive Summary:
- The market is in “to infinity and beyond” right now. Enjoy the move because it will end eventually. but not right now.
- Fun Fact: Both the Crash of 1929 and 1987 happened 55 days after their peak, and occurred in October. Given that the S&P 500 made a new peak yesterday, 55 days from now would put a crash into November.
Key Events of Note Today:
- Economic news of note today includes the Retail Sales along with Import/Export Prices, Industrial Production and NAHB Housing Index. Then later in the week Housing Starts, Philadelphia Fed Index and Leading Indicators.
- Fed Speak of note today: is in blackout period up to this week’s meeting and press conference on Wednesday.
- President Trump heads to the U.K. today for meetings that start tomorrow.
Notable Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: None of note.
- Misses: PLAY -0.59 of note.
- Flat: None of note.
Capital Raises:
- IPOs For The Week: AGCC, DTDT, NPT, NTSK, PTRN, RGNT, STUB, WBI of note.
- New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
- IPOs Filed/Priced:
- Secondaries Filed or Priced:
- CFLT: Form S-3.. 11,742,854 Shares of Common Stock
- COCP – Closing of Up To $13 Million Registered Direct Offering Priced At-The-Market Under Nasdaq Rules
- NAOV: S-3.. 1,347,935 Shares of Common Stock
- NXTT: FORM S-3 – $500,000,000 Common Stock
- RETO: FORM F-1 – 10,663,612 Class A Shares
- SMX: Form F-1.. Issuance of up to 22,590,361 Ordinary Shares
- XTIA – Closing of $20 Million Public Offering
- Notes Priced:
- Convertibles Filed:
- ADTN Proposed Convertible Senior Notes Offering
- OSCR – Launches Proposed Convertible Senior Subordinated Notes Offering to Scale Long-Term Growth and Consumer and Employer Adoption of the Individual Market
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
- Private Placements:
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- AVPT: FORM S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering
- KPRX: Form S-3.. $100,000,000 Mixed Shelf
- ORLA: Form F-10 Mixed Shelf
- RCAT: FORM S-3 – $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf Offering
News After The Close:
- Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) misses on revenues.
- The Walt Disney Company (DIS) and WEBTOON Entertainment (WBTN) announce that Disney and WEBTOON have entered into a non-binding term sheet for the development of an all-new digital comics platform that will feature current comic book runs and include decades of past comics from across Disney’s portfolio including Marvel, Star Wars, 20th Century Studios and more.
- Steel Dynamics (STLD) issues upside Q3 EPS upside guidance with improved earnings from each of the company’s three operating platforms.
- ADT to sell all assets used to operate its multifamily business for $55 mln
- Chord Energy (CHRD) enters into definitive agreement to acquire assets in the Williston Basin from XTO Energy for $550 mln.
- Apartment & Investment Mgmt (AIV) closes the sale of four properties located in suburban Boston for $490 million and the Aimco Board of Directors has declared a $2.23 per share special cash dividend to be paid on October 15.
- NOC awarded a $972 mln fixed-price Air Force contract
Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- CTRI names Christopher Krummel as new Chair of the Board of Directors
- CNS announces that President and CFO Raja Dakkuri has provided notice of his decision to resign from the company effective October 1
Buybacks:
- CMG authorizes the repurchase of up to $500 mln of common stock.
Dividends Announcements or News:
- Stocks Ex Div Today of note: APH PLD ICE HCA ECL ARES AIG PHM CRBG FNF PR OLED MTH FG RYN RNSY MEOH GEF.B GEF WU JJSF STC HMN VBTX FIHL SEI NMFC CNNE BCSF of note.
- Stocks Ex Div tomorrow of note: CRM NXPI HBAN CX QUBSF FSK AVT VAC of note.
Stocks Moving Up & Down Yesterday:
- Gap Up: WBTN +71.1%, AIV +14.5%, HITI +13.9%, ORN +10.5%, AIRE +2.3%, CMG +2.1%, of note.
- Gap Down: PLAY -14.5%, ADTN -10.1%, RCAT -5.5%, NOC -5.2%, OSCR -4.9%, RKLB -3.8%, NEOG -2% of note.
What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:10 a.m. EDT)
- Futures S&P 500 +, NASDAQ 100 +, Dow Jones + . Europe is lower and Asia is higher ex Hong Kong. Bond yields are at 4.039% from 4.059% on Monday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil is higher while Brent Crude is lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold and Silver are higher with Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $115,265 from $114,831 which is lower by $50 at -0.04%.
- Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services,Consumer Cyclical, Technology,Industrials and Materials led the way higher.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Healthcare and Real Estate were lower.
- One Month Winners: Materials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology, Financials, Communication Services and Utilities of note.
- Three-Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Utilities of note.
- Six-Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Industrials, Materials and Communication Services of note.
- Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Communication, Services Materials, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.
Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Today After the Close: None of note.
- Wednesday Before The Open: GIS JKS CBRL of note
Notable Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: FERG +0.46 of note.
- Misses: None of note.
- Still to Report: None of note.
Company Earnings Guidance:
- Positive Guidance: None of note.
- Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.
Advance/Decline Daily Update: Moves back below the Moving Average (30 Exp).
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%):
- GapUp: WBTN +45.8%, HITI +11.7%, AIV +9.2%, ORN +6.1%, NVO +2.5%, KLAR +2%, NBHC +2%of note.
- Gap Down: PLAY -17%, ADTN -9.8%, RCAT -4%, OSCR -3.2%, AVPT -3.1%, RKLB -3% of note.
Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list.
Insider Action: None of note see Insider Buying with dumb short selling. BHRB of note sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Bloomberg Lead Story: . (Bloomberg)
- Israel begins ground offensive in Gaza City. (NYT)
- The Senate confirmed Stephen Miran to Fed Board and he will attend this week’s meeting.
- Appeals Court rejected plan to remove Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook from Fed Board.
- Oracle (ORCL) will enable TikTok to continue U.S. operations following framework of agreement between the Trump administration and China.
- Meta (META) Connect will be about smart glasses. (CNBC)
- Trump Administration ordered Delta (DAL) and AeroMexico to unwind their Joint Venture by January 1st. (CNBC)
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was interviewed on CNBC this morning.
Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.
Economic & Geopolitical:
- Federal Reserve Speakers of note today.
- Blackout period in effect. FOMC meets on Tuesday and Wednesday
- President Trump has an active schedule
- President Trump heads to the U.K. today for meetings that start tomorrow.
- Economic Releases:
- August Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to come in at 0.3% from 0.5%.
- August Import/Export Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and came in at 0.4% from 0.1% last month.
- August Industrial Production are due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and are expected to come in at 0.0% from -0.1%.
- September NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 33 from 32.
M&A Activity:
Moving Average Table:
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Bank of America World Medical Innovation Forum
- Bank of America Financials CEO Conference
- Barrington Fall Investment Conference
- FT Partners FinTech Conference
- iAccess Alpha Virtual Best Ideas Fall Investment Conference
- J.P. Morgan U.S. All Stars Conference
- Pareto Securities 16th Annual Healthcare Conference
- RBC Global Industrials Conference
- Stifel Immunology & Inflammation Forum
- Wainwright Global Investment Conference
- Wells Fargo Consumer Conference
- Shareholder Meetings: ACXP, AIR, AIOT, BFRI, TTD
- Top Analyst, Investor: ARGX, CMPR, KURA, NXDT, PBM, RL
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- FDA Presentation:
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Meetings:
- International Conference on Biofabrication
- Klotho Conference & Scientific Seminar
- New York Fashion Week
- Single Cell Genomics Conference
- Workday Rising
Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Upgrades: BIDU HSY NVO PLD of note.
Downgrades: NMRA of note.