CAPIS Morning Note – 9/10/25: First of Two Days Of Inflation Data Out At 8:30 a.m. EDT With PPI First.

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.27% at 6512.61 from Monday higher by 0.21% at 6495.15. S&P 500 hits its 20th All Time High of 2025 yesterday! Futures are higher this morning by +13.50 (+0.21%) at 6535.25 on the S&P 500 around 6:00 a.m. EDT. Year to date […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: 

  • The S&P 500 finished Tuesday higher by 0.27% at 6512.61 from Monday higher by 0.21% at 6495.15.
  • S&P 500 hits its 20th All Time High of 2025 yesterday!
  • Futures are higher this morning by +13.50 (+0.21%) at 6535.25 on the S&P 500 around 6:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 10.73% from 10.43% from Friday’s close.

Executive Summary:

  • The Jobs Data was lower than expected but not negative. Stocks were lower on Friday but Bond prices rose as yields dropped. A 25 basis point cut looks like a no brainer on September 17th. PPI and CPI data are due out today and tomorrow.

Breaking News: Mortgage Applications rose +9.2% week over week.

Key Events of Note Today:  

  • Economic news of note today include PPI and Weekly Crude Oil Inventories. For the week, we still get CPI, Treasury Budget and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and their inflation data.  
  • Fed Speak of note today: is in blackout period up to next week’s meeting.
  • 3-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • President Trump attends the Intelligence Briefing and then hosts a dinner.

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats:  RBRK +0.31, GME +0.06 and CVGW +0.03 of note.
  • Misses: SNPS -0.41, ORCL -0.01, AVAV -0.01 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises: 

  • IPOs For The Week: CURX, ETS, PMI of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • LUCD announces proposed public offering of common stock 
    • AMLX commences public offering of common stock; Size of offering not disclosed
    • ACTU announces proposed public offering of common stock
  • Notes Priced:
  • Convertibles Filed:
    • ATRO announces offering of $210 mln of convertible senior notes due 2031 
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Private Placements:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
    • HLLY announces the launch of a secondary offering of 14 mln shares by selling stockholder controlled by Sentinel Capital Partners.
    • EQ files for 52,631,579 share common stock offering by selling shareholders 
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • XHG files for $300 mln mixed securities shelf offering
    • HRTX files for $125 mln mixed securities shelf offering 

News After The Close: 

  • Oracle (ORCL) beat earnings but missed on revenues and raised guidance numbers on strength in the AI space. Stock is el fuego in after hours.
  • Gamestop (GME) announces special dividend to be distributed in form of warrants to holders of common stock  with 1 warrant for every 10 shares.
  • Supreme Court agrees to hear tariff case on an expedited basis, early November. (CNBC)
  • Bill.com (BILL) +5.6% higher after hours on FT story on Elliott Management building stake.
  • CMS issues Guidance to Strengthen Oversight of Medicaid State Directed Payments.
  • President Trump asking EU to implement 100% tariffs on China and India in order to pressure Russia and Putin.
  • RTX  awarded a $760 mln fixed price Air Force contract

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News: 

  • NIC Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Mike Daniels has agreed to extend his planned leadership through the end of 2030.

Buybacks: 

  • HSIC  announces $750 million share repurchase plan.

Dividends Announcements or News: 

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: ELV TRV OXY FIS PPL HPQ TU NWS NWSA UMBF VFC BTG YOU VCTR TFSL CNO HOG INSW CASH KSS WGO  of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div tomorrow of note:  of note.

Stocks Moving Up & Down After The Close: 

  • Gap Up: ASST +33.4%, ORCL +27.3%, MEI +6.9%, BILL +6%, GME +4.2%, AVAV +4% of note.
  • Gap Down: ACTU -16.2%, SNPS -17.3%,  LUCD -12.6%, INNV -12.4%, ALMU -9.6%, MTRX -9.5%, AMRK -6%, CVGW -5.6%, LE -4.9%, RBRK -4.7%,  XHG -3.8% of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 6:50 a.m. EDT)

  • Futures S&P 500 +, NASDAQ 100 +, Dow Jones + . Europe is higher and Asia is higher. Bond yields are at 4.093% from 4.057% yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are higher with Natural Gas lower. Gold and Silver higher and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is higher versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $112,275 from $112,001 which is higher by $967 by 0.87%.

Sector Action: 
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services, Utilities, Energy and Healthcare were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Materials, Industrials and Real Estate were lower.
  • One Month Winners:  Materials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology, Financials, Communication Services and Utilities of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Utilities of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Industrials, Materials and Communication Services of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Communication, Services Materials, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close: OXM
  • Tomorrow Before The Open: KR LOVE

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

  • Beats: CHWY +0.19 of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: ORCL RBRK of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: Moves back above the Moving Average (30 Exp).

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%): 

  • GapUp: ASST +101.9%, GLSI +31%, ORCL +30.8%, GME +10.9%, FFAI +9.9%, MEI +8.1%, DNTH +7.1%, BILL +6%, AVAV +4%, HRTX +3.8%, TLX +3.3%, OPRX +3%, TSM +2.1%, NVO +2%  of note.
  • Gap Down:  NAKA -21.8%, SNPS -20.9%, OCTO -16.1%, XHG -15.3%, ALMU -11%, NIO -8.9%, LUCD -8.7%, MTRX -8.1%, HLLY -5.2%, RBRK -4.5%, AMLX -4.4%, LE -4.2%, FITB -4.1%, INNV -4%, ACTU -2.4%, CVGW -2.3%, CAC -2%  of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list.

Insider Action: SEI of note see Insider Buying with dumb short selling.  None of note see Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. 

  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Poland shoots down Russian drones that entered Polish airspace. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: US stocks extend all time highs on Oracle pop. (Bloomberg)
  • President Trump cannot fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook for now, says Judge. (Bloomberg)
  • Novo Nordisk (NVO) to cut 11% of workforce, 9,000 workers but shares higher. (CNBC)
  • Mortgage demand jumps to the highest level in three years, as interest rates drop sharply. (CNBC)
  • Klarna (KLAR) prices IPO at $40. (CNBC)
  • Odd Lots: AI and Silcon Valley’s Social Contract. (Bloomberg)
  • Big Take: Economic Cost of unwinding climate science. (Bloomberg)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical: 

  • Federal Reserve Speakers of note today.
    • Blackout period in effect.
  • President Trump has an active schedule
    • President Trump attends a swearing in ceremony for the Ambassador of Portugal at 4:00 p.m. EDT and then signs a proclamation at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
  • Economic Releases:
    • August PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and last month came in at 0.9% and is expected to come in at 0.3%.
    • Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

M&A Activity:

Moving Average Table: 

Meeting & Conferences of Note: 

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Barclays Global Financial Services Conf
    • BAC Securities Global Real Estate Conf
    • Baird Global Healthcare Conference
    • BMO Capital Markets Media & Telecom Conference
    • Deutsche Bank Healthcare Summit
    • Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference
    • Morgan Stanley Global Healthcare Conf
    • ROTH Solar & Storage Symposium
    • Wainwright Global Investment Conf
    • Wolfe Research TMT Conference
  • Shareholder Meetings: CAAS ITRM LESL NTAP ROIV 
  • Top Analyst, Investor BAM BBIO BHST CNO CVNA PMVP TPR TSM 
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation:
    • CGEM – Zipalertinib (NSCLC): Data Presentation
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • World Conference on Lung Cancer
    • World Sleep 2025
    • RE+ 2025

Upgrades & Downgrades: 

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: GOSS NKE ORCL RKT   of note.

Downgrades: None of note.