CAPIS Morning Note – 8/26/25:Trump to Fed Governor Cook, “You’re Fired!”

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.43% at 6439.32 from Friday higher by +1.52% at 6466.91. Futures are lower this morning by -5.50 (-0.09%) at 6450 on the S&P 500 around 6:15 a.m. EDT. Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 9.48% from 9.95% from Thursday’s […]

Overnight Summary & Early Morning Trading: 

  • The S&P 500 finished Monday lower by -0.43% at 6439.32 from Friday higher by +1.52% at 6466.91.
  • Futures are lower this morning by -5.50  (-0.09%) at 6450 on the S&P 500 around 6:15 a.m. EDT.
  • Year to date the S&P 500 is up by 9.48% from 9.95% from Thursday’s close.

Executive Summary:

  • Like last week, this week’s catalyst is a one-trick pony. Nvidia (NVDA) earnings are due tomorrow after the close and will drive the NASDAQ 100 and Tech indexes.

    

Key Events of Note Today:  

  • Economic news of note today is busy with Durable Orders, Case-Shiller Home Price Index, Consumer Confidence and API Petroleum Institute.
  • 2-Year Note Auction at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
  • Fed Speak of note today: Federal Reserve Richmond President Tom Barkin speaks today.
  • President Trump holds a Cabinet Meeting.

Breaking News: Eli Lilly (LLY) weight loss pill clears latest trial, paving way for approval. (CNBC)

Notable Earnings Out After The Close: 

  • Beats:  HEI +0.13, SMTC +0.01 of note. 
  • Misses: WOLF -0.07 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.

Capital Raises: 

  • IPOs For The Week: CURX, ETS, PMI of note.
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News: None of note.
  • IPOs Filed/Priced: None of note.
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • CPK: FORM S-3ASR – 2,522,078 SHARES OF COMMON STOCK
    • FEAM – Closing of $8.31 Million Public Offering of Common Stock
    • SNYR – Pricing of $4.375 Million Public Offering
  • Notes Priced: None of note.
  • Notes Files: None of note.
  • Convertibles Filed: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares: None of note.
  • Private Placements: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • SQNS: FORM F-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering

News After The Close: 

  • President Trump to Fed Governor Lisa Cook, “You’re Fired”. (CNBC)
  • Avery Dennison (AVY) signs definitive agreement to acquire flooring adhesives business of Meridian Adhesives Group for $390 mln.
  • IBKR to join the S&P 500 replacing WBA while TLN to join the S&P 400 replacing IBKR. KNTL to join the S&P 600 replacing PPBI which is being bought.
  • Western Union (WU) CEO bought 176,470 shares at $8.49 worth ~$1.5 million.
  • Medtronic (MDT) Director bought 5000 shares at $92.37-92.73 worth ~$463,000.

Buybacks of Note: None of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News: 

  • SWKS names Philip Carter as senior vice president and chief financial officer, effective September 8, 2025. He joins from Advanced Micro Devices, where he has served as corporate vice president and chief accounting officer.
  • NVTS appoints Chris Allexandre as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective September 1, 2025.
  • TRNS announces that CEO Lee D. Rudow has informed the Board of his plans to retire; He will continue to serve in current role until March 2026.
  • OMCL names Baird Radford as CFO.
  • YELP announces the appointment of Logan Green, co-founder and former chairman and chief executive officer of Lyft (LYFT), to its Board of Directors, effective August 19.
  • PATH names Michael Atalla as its new Chief Marketing Officer to drive leadership in agentic AI and orchestration.
  • RCKT CFO Aaron Ondrey resigned to pursue other opportunities, effective September 5, 2025. 
  • BFA announces that Leanne Cunningham, executive vice president and chief financial officer, will retire on May 1, 2026.
  • COLD appoints Robert Chambers as Chief Executive Officer and a member of the Board of Directors of Americold, effective September 1, 2025.
  • PODD announces appointment of Eric Benjamin to Chief Operating Officer, effective immediately.
  • QCOM names Patricia Grech as its new SVP and Chief Accounting Officer (Principal Accounting Officer) effective immediately.

Dividends Announcements or News 

  • Stocks Ex Div Today of note: LX CRI JNJ SPGI SWKS of note.
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow of note:  None of note.
  • TCBK increases quarterly dividend by 9.1% to $0.36/sh from $0.33/sh

Stocks Moving Up & Down After The Close: 

  • Gap Up:  KNTK +5.9%, TLN +4.6%, IBKR +4.1%, WU +2.1% of note.
  • Gap Down: NVAX (7.87 -17.9%), of note.

What’s Happening This Morning: (as of 7:30 a.m. EDT)

  • Futures S&P 500 -7, NASDAQ 100 -27, Dow Jones -58. Europe is lower while Asia is lower as well. Bond yields are at 4.296% from 4.273% from yesterday on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent Crude are lower with Natural Gas higher. Gold, Silver and Copper are higher. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower against the Pound and lower against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $110.207 from $110,966 which is lower by $-1157 down -1.04%.

Sector Action: UPDATED
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Communication Services and Energy were higher.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: All others were lower led by Healthcare, Consumer Defensive and Utilities.
  • One Month Winners:  Materials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology, Financials, Communication Services and Utilities of note.
  • Three-Month Winners: Technology, Industrials, Communication Services, Consumer Cyclicals and Utilities of note.
  • Six-Month Winners: Financials, Utilities, Industrials, Materials and Communication Services of note.
  • Twelve-Month Winners: Financials, Communication Services, Utilities, Technology, Consumer Cyclical, and Industrials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Communication, Services Materials, Financials, Utilities, Industrials and Technology of note.

Bolded means the Sector is new to the period in which it falls.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (Erlanger Chartroom Software – sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Today After the Close:  

  • Tomorrow Before The Open:  

Notable Earnings of Note This Morning: 

  • Beats: BMO +0.26, BNS +0.11, BEKE +0.06 of note. 
  • Misses: AMWD -0.32 of note.
  • Still to Report: None of note.

Company Earnings Guidance: 

  • Positive Guidance: None of note.
  • Negative or Mixed Guidance: None of note.

Advance/Decline Daily Update: The A/D Line continues to weaken.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market: (+2% or down more than -2%): 

  • GapUp: SATS +55.4%, DOMO +7.9%, KNTK +4.8%, TLN +4.6%, IBKR +4.1%, LEU +3%, WOLF +3%, AMD +2.7%, ICFI +2.3%, BMO +2%  of note.
  • GapDown: EH -8.7%, BWLP -2.8%  of note.

Options Activity: Calls and Puts Top Ten Names Sorted Volume. Highlighted names are new to the most active list.

Insider Action: None of note see Insider Buying with dumb short selling.  ASAN of note sees Insider Buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific. 

  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Trump moves to fire Fed’s Cook, setting up a historic legal fight. (Bloomberg)
  • Market Wrap: Stocks fall as French, Fed turmoil hit risk mood. (Bloomberg)
  • Paris Government faces risk of collapse. (CNBC)
  • AT&T (T) to buy spectrum licenses for $23 billion from Echostar. (CNBC)
  • Klarna planning IPO next month worth $13-14 bln (Reuters)
  • Odd Lots: Tom Barkin on why policy is on hard mode now. (Reuters)

Bolded on story link means behind a Pay Wall.

Economic & Geopolitical: 

  • Federal Reserve Speakers are speaking today.
    • Federal Reserve Richmond President Tom Barkin speaks at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
  • President Trump’s Schedule for today includes:
    • President Trump holds a Cabinet Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Economic Releases:
    • Durable Orders are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and the prior reading was -9.3%. Estimate is for -3.5%.
    • Case-Shiller Home Price Index is due out at 9:00 a.m. EDT and the prior reading was 2.80%. No change expected.
    • Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and the prior reading was 97.20. Estimate is for 96.30.
    • Weekly API Petroleum Report is due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity: None of note.

Moving Average Table: Equities move from 97% to 93%.

Meeting & Conferences of Note: 

  • Sellside Conferences: 
    • Jefferies Semiconductor IT Hardware & Communications Technology Conf
    • Stifel Tech Executive Summit
  • Shareholder Meetings: None of note.
  • Top Analyst, Investor Meetings: None of note.
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Meetings:
    • Institute of Nuclear Materials Management Conference

Upgrades & Downgrades: 

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Upgrades: AMD CPT DOMO OKTA OKLO of note.

Downgrades: STZ of note.